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Old 09-05-2007, 10:22 AM    (permalink
robert_in_bigd
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That's what I've tried to say, too. If you read my post you'll see we are on the same page. I think robert's argument doesn't make any sense.
Brees had a 6'4 ex basketball player TE and a 6'6 WR. He also now has Colston at 6'4 or so. But on Brees, I saw at least 3 TDs that season on isolation plays into the corner -- outside the has marks. Comparing TO or Witten to Gates or Colston on a fade is ....

Another team that takes advantage of a shortish QB with tall receivers is Detroit with Roy Williams (Plax and Eli though Eli not short). Now with Johnson it will be even more effective because either receiver can run a fade or slant and use their body and size to outmuscle guys.

It is a wonderful play to have in the book and use but we can't cuz TO does not have the hands, Glenn is too small and the other guys are unproven. So.... just one less weapon than what we could have had.

But of course, my argument does not make sense. World is round did not make sense either.

OT, you guys must belong to the 30% of the US that thinks George Bush knew about 9-11 and did nothing.
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Old 09-05-2007, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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Brees had a 6'4 ex basketball player TE and a 6'6 WR. He also now has Colston at 6'4 or so. But on Brees, I saw at least 3 TDs that season on isolation plays into the corner -- outside the has marks. Comparing TO or Witten to Gates or Colston on a fade is ....

Another team that takes advantage of a shortish QB with tall receivers is Detroit with Roy Williams (Plax and Eli though Eli not short). Now with Johnson it will be even more effective because either receiver can run a fade or slant and use their body and size to outmuscle guys.

It is a wonderful play to have in the book and use but we can't cuz TO does not have the hands, Glenn is too small and the other guys are unproven. So.... just one less weapon than what we could have had.

But of course, my argument does not make sense. World is round did not make sense either.

OT, you guys must belong to the 30% of the US that thinks George Bush knew about 9-11 and did nothing.
Brees didn't have a 6-6 WR. Who was this 6-6 WR? Because we were talking about San Diego, not New Orleans.
Second, even without this play, TO scored 33 TD's in his last 37 games. And I don't know if we're talking about the same type of play, but if you're talking about throwing in the corner of the endzone to a WR who is one on one with the, well, with that type of play TO scored against Houston, Atlanta off the top of my head. And they used that play a lot when he was in Philly.
And last but not least, why we should improve our scoring? We were 4th in the NFL, we were one of the best team in scoring both through the air and through the ground. Scoring is the last thing to improve not only in our offense, but in our entire team.
How a rookie WR could have improved an offense that was behind only San Diego and Indianapolis (Chicago is ahead of us because of the TD's they scored on returns and defensively), two teams that have on their side Peyton Manning (who has the record for TD's pass) and LT (who set the record for rushing TD's)?
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Old 09-05-2007, 11:41 AM    (permalink
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Brees didn't have a 6-6 WR. Who was this 6-6 WR? Because we were talking about San Diego, not New Orleans.
Vincent Jackson | #83 | WR
San Diego Chargers
Height: 6-5 Weight: 241 Age: 24
Born: 1/14/1983 Colorado Springs , CO
College: Northern Colorado
Experience: 3rd season
High School: Widefield HS [Colorado Springs, CO]

6 TDs last season on 27 Rec. Wonder what he was used for if not the play I just described. OHHHHHHH, 6-5 not 6-6. Sorry.

In 2005 he played very little. Rookie, raw kid but used as a threat in the red zone. Him and Gates is an interesting red zone package with LT but I digress ......

Point is the same ....

1) Rice, I believe, is going to be an excellent WR. He is 6'4, and excellent athlete and has great ball skills/hands. He should be a big play type of guy. We had a shot at him that would not have cost us the Cleveland #2.

2) Our WR are old and while we have an over abundance of young possession WR (Hurd and Crayton) -- our big play guys TO and Glenn have seen better days.

3) Stanback is a development project and may be a simlar (or better) player but he is very raw.

4) I think it safe to say Rice is a better prospect than Stanback -- which explains his 2nd round status.

5) Rice (as a rook) could have contributed in a meaningful way, like a Jackson, in limited packages. Red Zone being 1. We have nothing similar in the tool box.

6) Romo would benefit from this.

7) Rice as a 2nd year Vet could maybe replace TO or Glenn.

8) Spencer would have been gone by the first. We likely would have had to give up a 4th and 5th to move up some slots to get Rice.

9) We could have gone Rice in early 2 and combine that with the late 2 and 3 for other needs.

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Old 09-05-2007, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Vincent Jackson | #83 | WR
San Diego Chargers
Height: 6-5 Weight: 241 Age: 24
Born: 1/14/1983 Colorado Springs , CO
College: Northern Colorado
Experience: 3rd season
High School: Widefield HS [Colorado Springs, CO]

6 TDs last season on 27 Rec. Wonder what he was used for if not the play I just described.

OHHHHHHH, 6-5 not 6-6. Sorry.

In 2005 he played very little. Rookie, raw kid but used as a threat in the red zone.

Him and Gates is an interesting red zone package with LT.
OHHHHH, he had 3 catches when Brees was in San Diego. Yeah, for sure he was used as a threat in the redzone that year.
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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OHHHHH, he had 3 catches when Brees was in San Diego. Yeah, for sure he was used as a threat in the redzone that year.
And how many did Gates get?? And how many times did they line up in the formation and run the ball with LT?? And what about Rivers benefitting from Jackson and Gates last year?? Guys who can get that ball in the air when in the end zone.

Again, your point we had excellent Red Zone efficiency last year is noted but you are missing the forest from the trees.

This whole discussions started with my stating Jerrah, outside of the trade, screwed up the draft ..... Sidney Rice's name was the start of the "what if" discussion when you stumbled in idiotically and started calling me names telling me Rice sucked, Doucet is better, Stanback is wonderful and Jerrah is a great GM.

And here we are. Still repeating the same crap with new details..... I unfortunately, like a Special Needs Teacher, keep trying to use deductive reasoning and neew data to help you "get it." Except you keep arguing the details without addressing the main issue.

Jerrah the GM sucks. He loves his decisions. He is not a person to reflect on his weaknesses or mistakes.

This draft will further reinforce it. Only Folk will contribute meaningfully in 2007.

The fact a Super Bowl team kept all the guys picked another reason. He luvz his guys even the 7th rounders with no shot.

At least Parcells would cut them or trade them -- Shanle, Fujita, Skyler Green and Pettiti are a few that come to mind.

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Old 09-05-2007, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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And how many did Gates get?? And how many times did they line up in the formation and run the ball with LT?? And what about Rivers benefitting from Jackson and Gates last year?? Guys who can get that ball in the air when in the end zone.

Again, your point we had excellent Red Zone efficiency last year is noted but you are missing the forest from the trees.

This whole discussions started with my stating Jerrah, outside of the trade, screwed up the draft ..... Sidney Rice's name was the start of the "what if" discussion when you stumbled in idiotically and started calling me names telling me Rice sucked, Doucet is better, Stanback is wonderful and Jerrah is a great GM.

And here we are. Still repeating the same crap with new details..... I unfortunately, like a Special Needs Teacher, keep trying to use deductive reasoning and neew data to help you "get it." Except you keep arguing the details without addressing the main issue.

Jerrah the GM sucks. He loves his decisions. He is not a person to reflect on his weaknesses or mistakes.

This draft will further reinforce it. Only Folk will contribute meaningfully in 2007.

The fact a Super Bowl team kept all the guys picked another reason. He luvz his guys even the 7th rounders with no shot.

At least Parcells would cut them or trade them -- Shanle, Fujita, Skyler Green and Pettiti are a few that come to mind.

one thing i dont think your realizing about your arguments, that is contradictive, is you say jerry falls in love with his draft picks and wont admit when he is wrong...


yet in another point you keep rambling on about how sidney rice is better then stanback, and your making this assumption off of one preseason am i not right? But maybe thats not the case, because if YOU see something you dont like in stanback he must not be able to turn into anything valuable right? and since YOU "think" sidney rice will be better because of his college yrs and one preseason, thats obviously what will happen right? those are all facts i presume, and since you KNOW thats the way things will work out, and you KNOW how players will develop before the season starts, i guess we should take u more seriously huh?


since when does someone evaluate two wr's against eachother, in their first pre season? does it not usually take at least 3 years to see the talent and development on a wr? not only that, stanback is a project wr, meaning we probably wont see him max out his potential until at least his 3rd year in the system....

so im hoping you realize how crazy that is to criticize jerry on a draft pick, and say he messed up by not taking another wr this early...they havent even played a REAL game yet, and you swear up and down that this is a FACT by you, and its the truth, and whoever doesnt acknowledge that must think the world is flat, smh...Or maybe thats your cop out once you were called out about saying our red zone offense needed help, so the only thing you could think of was to say people cant comprehend anything, or we dont believe the worlds round, smh..


you can ramble on and on about how your ideas are so thought out, and how much you back up statements by facts, but your ignorance is seeping out of every thing you post now
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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I unfortunately, like a Special Needs Teacher, keep trying to use deductive reasoning and neew data to help you "get it." Except you keep arguing the details without addressing the main issue.
another thing i notice, is that you go out of your way to be an as.shole as much as you can, instead of inputting your opinion and backing it, or just putting your opinion on the table in a respectable way...


look at the way you respond to BBD's post, then look at how you respond to majority of the people's post around here...no you dont only do that with people you have gotten into it with, you come into threads and start out talking that way, find something ignorant to say to insult someone's intelligence, and then come up with some sort of parody that you think is funny and relevant when neither of the above is needed or necessary...

if you actually tried posting with some class you wouldnt be perceived the way you do, i know your capable of it, because i watch how you quote bbd, which is probably why he doesnt have a problem with you, yet with anyone else, you come off like you know everything and if someone disagrees then they must not understand the english language
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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yet in another point you keep rambling on about how sidney rice is better then stanback, and your making this assumption off of one preseason am i not right?
No dummy, I am doing so based on College Career, many draft experts reviews and my own eyes.

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But maybe thats not the case, because if YOU see something you dont like in stanback he must not be able to turn into anything valuable right?
I never said that. You just made something up to support your point. I have no idea whether Mr Stanback can be great. Jerrah would know more.

What I do know is spending the first pick in the Fourth was a stretch for a developmental talent who was injured and unable to have a full training camp. A complete stretch.

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and since YOU "think" sidney rice will be better because of his college yrs and one preseason, thats obviously what will happen right?
Rather have a 25% chance of being right on a star WR in the 2nd round then a 5% chance in the 4th round. So I give Rice 4X better shot at being a star than Stanback.

Now will it happen, I dunno but comparatively I would make an even money bet on Rice over Stanback.

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those are all facts i presume, and since you KNOW thats the way things will work out, and you KNOW how players will develop before the season starts, i guess we should take u more seriously huh?
You should take me more seriously becaue my logic is sound.

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since when does someone evaluate two wr's against eachother, in their first pre season? does it not usually take at least 3 years to see the talent and development on a wr? not only that, stanback is a project wr, meaning we probably wont see him max out his potential until at least his 3rd year in the system....
So you are agreeing with me??????? Stanback is a 4th round long shot.

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so im hoping you realize how crazy that is to criticize jerry on a draft pick, and say he messed up by not taking another wr this early...they havent even played a REAL game yet, and you swear up and down that this is a FACT by you, and its the truth, and whoever doesnt acknowledge that must think the world is flat, smh...Or maybe thats your cop out once you were called out about saying our red zone offense needed help, so the only thing you could think of was to say people cant comprehend anything, or we dont believe the worlds round, smh..
I am killing Jerry for the whole approach to the draft. Not one pick. Forrest from Trees GRASSHOPPER.

I was just using Red Zone as a small but powerful data point to why a Rice type player instead of Spencer and losing a 2nd Rounder was a better choice for 2007 and beyond.

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you can ramble on and on about how your ideas are so thought out, and how much you back up statements by facts, but your ignorance is seeping out of every thing you post now
On your best day on this earth, you could not touch my groggiest, dumbest, most incoherent moment.

BTW, get rid of Ramonce TNew. He sucks.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:13 PM    (permalink
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another thing i notice, is that you go out of your way to be an as.shole as much as you can, instead of inputting your opinion and backing it, or just putting your opinion on the table in a respectable way...


look at the way you respond to BBD's post, then look at how you respond to majority of the people's post around here...no you dont only do that with people you have gotten into it with, you come into threads and start out talking that way, find something ignorant to say to insult someone's intelligence, and then come up with some sort of parody that you think is funny and relevant when neither of the above is needed or necessary...

if you actually tried posting with some class you wouldnt be perceived the way you do, i know your capable of it, because i watch how you quote bbd, which is probably why he doesnt have a problem with you, yet with anyone else, you come off like you know everything and if someone disagrees then they must not understand the english language
Once you get past the point of knowing that the sole reason robert is here is to puff himself up and you become numb to it, it stops bothering you.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:22 PM    (permalink
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Once you get past the point of knowing that the sole reason robert is here is to puff himself up and you become numb to it, it stops bothering you.
Is this the D-Unit guy who is an Administrator saying others are here to puff themselves up?

WOWZzzzzzzeeeeeeeeee, sure sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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Is this the D-Unit guy who is an Administrator saying others are here to puff themselves up?

WOWZzzzzzzeeeeeeeeee, sure sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.
I go by what I see. How do I go about looking for credit on everything I say? I may be a pot, but I'm not black. :D
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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BTW, get rid of Ramonce TNew. He sucks.
Its funny that ive been posting here almost a yr before you were, consistently at that...im not even sure when Tnew popped up, but i had been here long before he or you for that matter, and while Tnew bothered everyone constantly for the couple of months he was around, you seem to be the only one who feels bothered by me..but ur right, im both posters, i posted on my name for a year, then for amusement made another alias and ran rampid on the board, smh...u do know mods can check the ip address right? but thats not worth discussing, whatever makes you sleep better at night


my whole point, is that when you come up with thoughts you dont say "i think rice would have been a good pick because of his height and redzone ability, where as we reached on stanback in my opinion, and even if you do, when someone says they liked the stanback pick, they are immediately wrong and an idiot who doesnt understand football..also my other point was that right now, you and everyone else just has an opinion on that matter, its extremely too early for you to swear up and down rice would of been better, you can say the "odds" are with rice, but the "odds" were that reggie williams would be a better WR then marques colston, and the "odds" were alot higher, so if you want to have an opinion on rice thats fine by all means, by thats all it is right now, is what you think about the situation...


Quote:
Once you get past the point of knowing that the sole reason robert is here is to puff himself up and you become numb to it, it stops bothering you.

i realize that, you cannot even have a disagreement with him in a normal sense...jus thought it was funny that he acts like he doesnt know why he's treated a certain way around here, then you read how he responds to BBD post and realize that he is going out of his way to try to rile people up
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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This whole discussions started with my stating Jerrah, outside of the trade, screwed up the draft ..... Sidney Rice's name was the start of the "what if" discussion when you stumbled in idiotically and started calling me names telling me Rice sucked, Doucet is better, Stanback is wonderful and Jerrah is a great GM.

[...]

This draft will further reinforce it. Only Folk will contribute meaningfully in 2007.
First, I could take this post as a personal attack. You're calling a lot of guys idiot, stupid, dummy etc recently, uh?
Second, I've not said that Rice suck and Doucet is better, I've said that we can pick a better WR in next year's draft, because, imo, Doucet, Bennet and Jackson (at least) have more potential and better skills than Rice. And I've not called Jerry and Stanback's names.

The only thing I've said is that you are complaining about lack of contribution by our rookies, but still wanted us to draft Sidney Rice, who you think should have helpe us by increasing our scoring catching high balls in the redzone. But our scoring offense was the third best in the league last year, so I really don't get why do you think we should improve in this area of the game. Then you came out saying that SD used this type of plays with Brees throwing to Gates and Jackson, and that we should use the same type of plays because Romo is as short as Brees. But the only tall guy to whom Brees throwed was Gates, Jackson received THREE balls that season. So SD didn't use this type of play so often as you said while Brees was playing for them.

And, there's a guy called Anthony Spencer who is gonna start for us. But only Folk will contribute, uh?

And weren't you complaining about all the rookies making the team, because a super bowl contender should not expect much production from their rookies? Aren't you contradicting yourself once again?
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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First, I could take this post as a personal attack. You're calling a lot of guys idiot, stupid, dummy etc recently, uh?
Second, I've not said that Rice suck and Doucet is better, I've said that we can pick a better WR in next year's draft, because, imo, Doucet, Bennet and Jackson (at least) have more potential and better skills than Rice. And I've not called Jerry and Stanback's names.

The only thing I've said is that you are complaining about lack of contribution by our rookies, but still wanted us to draft Sidney Rice, who you think should have helpe us by increasing our scoring catching high balls in the redzone. But our scoring offense was the third best in the league last year, so I really don't get why do you think we should improve in this area of the game. Then you came out saying that SD used this type of plays with Brees throwing to Gates and Jackson, and that we should use the same type of plays because Romo is as short as Brees. But the only tall guy to whom Brees throwed was Gates, Jackson received THREE balls that season. So SD didn't use this type of play so often as you said while Brees was playing for them.

And, there's a guy called Anthony Spencer who is gonna start for us. But only Folk will contribute, uh?

And weren't you complaining about all the rookies making the team, because a super bowl contender should not expect much production from their rookies? Aren't you contradicting yourself once again?
Props to you Modano. Your English has improved by leaps and bounds from the first time you posted here. Wow. I'm impressed.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:46 PM    (permalink
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Props to you Modano. Your English has improved by leaps and bounds from the first time you posted here. Wow. I'm impressed.
Are you serious? :P If my english has improved, it's because of this forum (and watching games on TV). But reading and writing on this forum has been very important for me, "speaking" with other people is the best way to learn a new language.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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i realize that, you cannot even have a disagreement with him in a normal sense...jus thought it was funny that he acts like he doesnt know why he's treated a certain way around here, then you read how he responds to BBD post and realize that he is going out of his way to try to rile people up
Ohhh Longhorn, so mature and an interesting insight....

When folks post nonsense backed up by nonsense they get nonsense ...

When folks post interesting thoughts backed up by intersting thoughts they get interesting thoughts back.

But seriously, get rid of Ramonce. That is an embarrasment TNew.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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First, I could take this post as a personal attack. You're calling a lot of guys idiot, stupid, dummy etc recently, uh?
Not alot guys, but you and Pocketaces are seriously pushing for the title.

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Second, I've not said that Rice suck and Doucet is better, I've said that we can pick a better WR in next year's draft, because, imo, Doucet, Bennet and Jackson (at least) have more potential and better skills than Rice. And I've not called Jerry and Stanback's names.
Maybe so but I don't think any of those guys have Sidney Rice's hands or ball skills.

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The only thing I've said is that you are complaining about lack of contribution by our rookies, but still wanted us to draft Sidney Rice, who you think should have helpe us by increasing our scoring catching high balls in the redzone. But our scoring offense was the third best in the league last year, so I really don't get why do you think we should improve in this area of the game.
I dunno, maybe we should improve this area of the game to score more points? You tell me why we shouldn't improve our red zone effectiveness. Should we worsen it or stay the same if given a shot to improve?

Mind I add this is not the central argument here. But a side track through some data and analysis supporting a conclusion..

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Then you came out saying that SD used this type of plays with Brees throwing to Gates and Jackson, and that we should use the same type of plays because Romo is as short as Brees. But the only tall guy to whom Brees throwed was Gates, Jackson received THREE balls that season. So SD didn't use this type of play so often as you said while Brees was playing for them.
San Diego has used that play very often in the last few years. Just so happens Gates was the #1 option with Brees for obvious reasons. But Vincent came on last year for the #1 Ranked Offense in the NFL. Coincidence??? Maybe, but I luv big guys in the end zone.

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And, there's a guy called Anthony Spencer who is gonna start for us. But only Folk will contribute, uh?
We have a back-up of OLB, starting with Carpenter. I agree Spencer is a better pass rusher but I also see that Spencer is limited in any other role.

If Ellis comes back, expect Spencer to hits the pines.

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And weren't you complaining about all the rookies making the team, because a super bowl contender should not expect much production from their rookies? Aren't you contradicting yourself once again?
No, learn to reason. I am saying a few less rookies in a few areas of need would have been better in 2007 and beyond as opposed to a bunch of bodies.

Assuming a deep draft ...............

If you have Super Bowl talent, normally you want a few high quality guys who can produce today and develop tomorrow. That is give up some later round talent to secure a certain player in the 2nd or 3rd who can play sooner and maybe develop.

If you are a sucky team, normally your are willing to foreasake draft postion or even 2nd / 3rd round picks for a few more 4th and 5th rounders uder the theory that more bodies equals more competition and a GREATER CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY of developing starters and stars.

With Super Bowl teams, sometimes real high quality young guys get cut. So why have 2 or 3 young high quality guys when you know you have to throw away 1 or 2 of them.

There is such a thing as having too much young talent in the NFL.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:19 PM    (permalink
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Rather have a 25% chance of being right on a star WR in the 2nd round then a 5% chance in the 4th round. So I give Rice 4X better shot at being a star than Stanback.
Where do you get these percentages from?
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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Ohhh Longhorn, so mature and an interesting insight....

When folks post nonsense backed up by nonsense they get nonsense ...

When folks post interesting thoughts backed up by intersting thoughts they get interesting thoughts back.

But seriously, get rid of Ramonce. That is an embarrasment TNew.
Wait a minute... Longhorns is TNew???? I never even knew that. LOL.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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I dunno, maybe we should improve this area of the game to score more points? You tell me why we shouldn't improve our red zone effectiveness. Should we worsen it or stay the same if given a shot to improve?

San Diego has used that play very often in the last few years. Just so happens Gates was the #1 option with Brees for obvious reasons. But Vincent came on last year for the #1 Ranked Offense in the NFL. Coincidence??? Maybe, but I luv big guys in the end zone.
two things to pick from this. We had bigger needs than helping the red zone offense, by bringing in Rice such as Secondary (which we didnt do) and NT (again didnt do).:(

Also SD didnt have the #1 offense, but if you meant red zone offense I think Ladanian Tomlinson had the most to do with the rating

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Old 09-05-2007, 03:44 PM    (permalink
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Where do you get these percentages from?
1st Round, 1st Pick -- 3,000 Points
2nd Round, 1st Pick -- 580 points
3rd Round, 1st Pick -- 265
4rd Round, 1st Pick -- 112
5th Round, 1st Pick -- 43
6th Round, 1st Pick -- 27
7th Round, 1st Pick -- 14.2

If you assume the first pick has a 100% chance of being star .... so that way you get a reference point mathematically.... the rest is division and multiplication but what really matter are the relative weights between picks.

Sidney Rice was picked 44 and Stanback 103.... 44 is worth 460 and 103 is worth 88.

44th pick is worth about 15% what the first pick is.... but that is not important.....

460/88 = 5.22 ------ 5/1 Ratio = 25%/5%

That is, Sidney Rice, has 4.22X better shot (mathematically) than Stanback according to a semi scientific weighting system many NFL teams use.

But Go talk to them but I am sure some mathematics dude plotted some quantifiable results (Pro Bowls, Total $$$ Made, + Position) to when the player was draft to get a giatn regression analysis. Lord knows what the forecast error was but then he took the math and gave it to some GM in order to give him a clue what a 7th rounder is worth vis a visa a 2nd Rounder.

Pure stats at that point once you build the database and keep refreshing with results.

So, son, what else you want?
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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Where do you get these percentages from?
Also if I give the Number 1 a 100% shot of being a star then Sidney has a 15% and Stanback a 3.5%.

If you say 50% of Number 1 picks become stars then I was lower the 15% to 7.5% and so one.

Regardless, it is the relative weighting between rounds that matters.

When you look at history first round tends to produce more All Pros then the Second and so on......

Now that a 6th round QB (Brady) who turns into a start is worth more than a 3rd Round RB (Gore) goes without saying.

Certain positions are worth more so that needs to be taken into account in the regression model EVEN though each team has equal rights to picking a QB at any point in the draft..... need a stat guy to work that out .... but I digress into irrelevant math.

Point however is correct. Sidney is 5:1 on Stanback.

<Yawn> So Mr Know It All? I don't back my sh*t up but you do?

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Old 09-05-2007, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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I see where you got your numbers but I can't live on numbers. There was a great stat our there about the number of second day guys that actually contirbuted to a team and it was some minuscule number like 7-8%. That is besides the fact. I'm pretty sure there are stats like 50% of first round WR's in the past 10 years don't live up to their hype...using that logic it would skew your stats.

I'm fully with you Rice would have gave us a dimension our team didn't have. Hell I was calling for him. But we had to move up and get spencer. And by Have...I mean the talent drop off on the big board we had set up made it well worth the trade. So yes this has to do with the front office not personal beliefs. But I would hate to see where our team would be sitting right now with Ellis hurt. Carp was moved inside because he fit the scheme better on the inside. Parcells went out of the way last year to say Carp just had a knack on the inside. Now call me crazy but I'm going to go with two smart minded coaches over what I see or think in a preseason game. So with this logic Spencer was a huge need for us.

I've stated my case how we got f'd in the 2nd round with the run on WR talent. and how when we traded down not one WR went. However you stated earlier that we should have offered 4th's and 5th's. Once again this is subject to speculation. Maybe we did we couldn't meet the needs of teams up there. Part of me says ya I'm sure we could have offered our 4th and 5th to move up with some team. But it's easy in hindsight...the organization could have made the move then turns out steve smith was available at our pick and now we made the wrong move. It's a game of luck and numbers. We missed out on our guys but moving up 2 picks in a row doesn't happen to often unless your a team like the redskins who has little to no value in later round picks.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Also if I give the Number 1 a 100% shot of being a star then Sidney has a 15% and Stanback a 3.5%.

If you say 50% of Number 1 picks become stars then I was lower the 15% to 7.5% and so one.

Regardless, it is the relative weighting between rounds that matters.

When you look at history first round tends to produce more All Pros then the Second and so on......

Now that a 6th round QB (Brady) who turns into a start is worth more than a 3rd Round RB (Gore) goes without saying.

Certain positions are worth more so that needs to be taken into account in the regression model EVEN though each team has equal rights to picking a QB at any point in the draft..... need a stat guy to work that out .... but I digress into irrelevant math.

Point however is correct. Sidney is 5:1 on Stanback.

<Yawn> So Mr Know It All? I don't back my sh*t up but you do?
Just can't post a point without throwing in a low blow...why? Honestly I'm at a loss. You proved where you got your numbers from....no way I could say anything degrading about it...numbers are set no changing them around. But yet you feel the need to just throw in a little derogatory blow at the end of it...
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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I see where you got your numbers but I can't live on numbers. There was a great stat our there about the number of second day guys that actually contirbuted to a team and it was some minuscule number like 7-8%. That is besides the fact. I'm pretty sure there are stats like 50% of first round WR's in the past 10 years don't live up to their hype...using that logic it would skew your stats.
With all due respect Thule, numbers are very important to use when trying value NFL currency called draft picks. The only way you do that is by having that type of chart and doing comprehensive statistical analysis. To say f* the numbers b/c you can't live on them is just plain wrong.

Now what you say about certain POSITIONS being high or lower bust probabilites REGARDLESS of where drafted is very true.

That is why many folks don't like DT and NT or Kickers in the 1st round.

Because they feel that one position, regardless of importance, is so variable they just as soon take a player more likely to hit.

So in that sense you are correct and it is a very well known observation, but the fact is we are comparing WR to WR. Not NT to WR in this discussion.

I assure you each team uses Position Weighting to supplement the Draft Value Chart but the basic numbers don't lie.

Game, set, match. Thanks for the workout.
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