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Old 09-17-2007, 09:48 PM    (permalink
robert_in_bigd
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Originally Posted by JJJ888 View Post
That was one game...you can't generalize based on one game.

And if Barber is soooo good at turning losses into gains, how come he has converted only 50% of his 3rd and 4th and 1 situations? That's really not very good.
Those are Marco Rivera stats with BP playing calling. Let us see how Biggie helps that number with Garrett.
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Old 09-17-2007, 10:15 PM    (permalink
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I am with DMW here, Jones seems to be a guy that needs to be getting a large number of carries to be at his best. I think he is pressing too much right now to break off big runs with his limited carries and it's hurting his production. I just don't think mentally he fits with the running back by committee approach, which is neither good or bad just not a good fit for the Cowboys right now. It is unfortunate that he probably wont get a chance to be a feature back though.

Barber has the right mentality and ability to succeed in a committee backfield, but I don't think he quite has the talent to be a feature back.
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Old 09-18-2007, 12:38 AM    (permalink
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Deion Sanders keeps saying it, "Marion carries the ball like it's his last carry". You don't see this too often in the NFL. It's a good and a bad thing. He'll never last running the ball 20-25 times per game. However, I would like to test out that theory.
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Old 09-18-2007, 12:49 AM    (permalink
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well i just dont really buy the whole theory that JJ needs 20-25 carries to really show what he can do...im pretty sure if we split carries 15 and 15 with barber and say for arguments sake willie parker, parker wouldnt need 25 carries to show how explosive and strong he is, he would probably look alot better being fresh and splitting carries...unless your a big bruising back like jamal lewis i dont buy that, especially if your a speed back that falls on the first set of contact
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Old 09-18-2007, 07:37 AM    (permalink
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well i just dont really buy the whole theory that JJ needs 20-25 carries to really show what he can do...im pretty sure if we split carries 15 and 15 with barber and say for arguments sake willie parker, parker wouldnt need 25 carries to show how explosive and strong he is, he would probably look alot better being fresh and splitting carries...unless your a big bruising back like jamal lewis i dont buy that, especially if your a speed back that falls on the first set of contact
In Julius's defense, he did seem to show a little more bounce and "hard to tackleness" versus Miami.

** Does not change my opinion that Julius is whiney, pretty boy who would prefer to look good in tights than be a HOFer.
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Old 09-18-2007, 09:50 AM    (permalink
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Those are Marco Rivera stats with BP playing calling. Let us see how Biggie helps that number with Garrett.
One guy does not an offensive line make. There are five on a line, and you run behind all 5.
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Old 09-18-2007, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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GODLY!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 09-18-2007, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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One guy does not an offensive line make. There are five on a line, and you run behind all 5.
OK, so that makes the point irrelevant. Signing Bigg and getting Garret make no difference whatsoever.
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Old 09-18-2007, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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well i just dont really buy the whole theory that JJ needs 20-25 carries to really show what he can do...im pretty sure if we split carries 15 and 15 with barber and say for arguments sake willie parker, parker wouldnt need 25 carries to show how explosive and strong he is, he would probably look alot better being fresh and splitting carries...unless your a big bruising back like jamal lewis i dont buy that, especially if your a speed back that falls on the first set of contact
read what people write and you will understand the reasoning. It is mentality, not physical ability people are talking about. I believe Jones is going out right now and trying too hard to make the big play, because he has limited time. I don't think he is relaxed and just reacting, instead I think he is thinking too much. That is just assumptions, but it isn't anything that is hard to believe. There have been hundreds of athletes that have shown that happens, and say that happens.
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Old 09-18-2007, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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OK Trips J your an old timer...but your JJ love is sickening in here.

Quote:
Running backs are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level RB in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent)
  • 29-C.Brown TEN 9.8 1
    32-E.James ARI 8.4 2
    24-M.Barber DAL 8.1 3
    29-J.Addai IND 7.8 4
    34-L.Jordan OAK 7.7 5
    20-T.Henry DEN 7.7 6

These are the top 6 runners according to PAR (explained above) through week 2.

Lets go onto more stats.

Quote:
The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent)
  • 29-C.Brown TEN 45.2% 4
    32-E.James ARI 27.8% 10
    24-M.Barber DAL 65.4% 1
    29-J.Addai IND 25.9% 11
    34-L.Jordan OAK 28.9% 9
    20-T.Henry DEN 24.6% 12

As you can see the 2nd number is once again the ranking. And once again MB3 is towards the top.

Quote:
The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher VOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.
  • 29-C.Brown TEN 68% 2
    32-E.James ARI 56% 9
    24-M.Barber DAL 48% 17
    29-J.Addai IND 67% 3
    34-L.Jordan OAK 50% 16
    20-T.Henry DEN 43% 28
    26-C.Portis WAS 62% 5

I think this one is the one that hits closest to home. As described above MB3 Has a high VOA and a bit lower Success rate. Basically means he is stuffed at the line but breaks off some big runs. However his success rate isn't low...just lower for him.

Now lets take a look at JJ's numbers using the same three stat measures.
  • Ranked according to PAR
    21-J.Jones DAL -1.1 33
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC -1.1 34
    23-R.Brown MIA -1.2 35
    36-R.Dayne HOU -1.3 36
    28-F.Taylor JAC -1.4 37
    26-D.McAllister NO -1.5 39
    32-C.Benson CHI -1.5 40
    32-R.Johnson CIN -2.2 41
  • Ranked according to VOA
    21-J.Jones DAL -24.1% 33
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC -31.4% 38
    23-R.Brown MIA -30.2% 37
    36-R.Dayne HOU -26.1% 34
    28-F.Taylor JAC -28.6% 36
    26-D.McAllister NO -31.6% 39
    32-C.Benson CHI -22.1% 31
    32-R.Johnson CIN -26.9% 35
  • Ranked using Success Rate
    21-J.Jones DAL 23% 47
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC 33% 38
    23-R.Brown MIA 32% 39
    36-R.Dayne HOU 42% 30
    28-F.Taylor JAC 32% 41
    26-D.McAllister NO 45% 24
    32-C.Benson CHI 42% 31
    32-R.Johnson CIN 46% 19


Just another point to make here

Let just take a quick glance at 2006 rankings. Since there is a little more data their then just two weeks.
  • MB3 - Overall Rank
    DPAR - 8
    DVOA - 2
    SUCCESS - 4
    JJ - Overall Rank
    DPAR - 25
    DVOA - 28
    SUCCESS -30

Still don't believe in these stats?
  • Top runners according to DPAR last year were
    21-L.Tomlinson SD
    27-L.Johnson KC
    21-T.Barber NYG
    39-S.Jackson STL
    29-J.Addai IND
    21-F.Gore SF
    36-B.Westbrook PHI
    24-M.Barber DAL
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Old 09-18-2007, 02:38 PM    (permalink
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OK Trips J your an old timer...but your JJ love is sickening in here.


  • 29-C.Brown TEN 9.8 1
    32-E.James ARI 8.4 2
    24-M.Barber DAL 8.1 3
    29-J.Addai IND 7.8 4
    34-L.Jordan OAK 7.7 5
    20-T.Henry DEN 7.7 6

These are the top 6 runners according to PAR (explained above) through week 2.

Lets go onto more stats.


  • 29-C.Brown TEN 45.2% 4
    32-E.James ARI 27.8% 10
    24-M.Barber DAL 65.4% 1
    29-J.Addai IND 25.9% 11
    34-L.Jordan OAK 28.9% 9
    20-T.Henry DEN 24.6% 12

As you can see the 2nd number is once again the ranking. And once again MB3 is towards the top.


  • 29-C.Brown TEN 68% 2
    32-E.James ARI 56% 9
    24-M.Barber DAL 48% 17
    29-J.Addai IND 67% 3
    34-L.Jordan OAK 50% 16
    20-T.Henry DEN 43% 28
    26-C.Portis WAS 62% 5

I think this one is the one that hits closest to home. As described above MB3 Has a high VOA and a bit lower Success rate. Basically means he is stuffed at the line but breaks off some big runs. However his success rate isn't low...just lower for him.

Now lets take a look at JJ's numbers using the same three stat measures.
  • Ranked according to PAR
    21-J.Jones DAL -1.1 33
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC -1.1 34
    23-R.Brown MIA -1.2 35
    36-R.Dayne HOU -1.3 36
    28-F.Taylor JAC -1.4 37
    26-D.McAllister NO -1.5 39
    32-C.Benson CHI -1.5 40
    32-R.Johnson CIN -2.2 41
  • Ranked according to VOA
    21-J.Jones DAL -24.1% 33
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC -31.4% 38
    23-R.Brown MIA -30.2% 37
    36-R.Dayne HOU -26.1% 34
    28-F.Taylor JAC -28.6% 36
    26-D.McAllister NO -31.6% 39
    32-C.Benson CHI -22.1% 31
    32-R.Johnson CIN -26.9% 35
  • Ranked using Success Rate
    21-J.Jones DAL 23% 47
    32-M.Jones-Drew JAC 33% 38
    23-R.Brown MIA 32% 39
    36-R.Dayne HOU 42% 30
    28-F.Taylor JAC 32% 41
    26-D.McAllister NO 45% 24
    32-C.Benson CHI 42% 31
    32-R.Johnson CIN 46% 19


Just another point to make here

Let just take a quick glance at 2006 rankings. Since there is a little more data their then just two weeks.
  • MB3 - Overall Rank
    DPAR - 8
    DVOA - 2
    SUCCESS - 4
    JJ - Overall Rank
    DPAR - 25
    DVOA - 28
    SUCCESS -30

Still don't believe in these stats?
  • Top runners according to DPAR last year were
    21-L.Tomlinson SD
    27-L.Johnson KC
    21-T.Barber NYG
    39-S.Jackson STL
    29-J.Addai IND
    21-F.Gore SF
    36-B.Westbrook PHI
    24-M.Barber DAL

Wow, lots of stats. Dunno what any of them mean.....

Eyes don't fool ya ... Marion is better. Team plays better with him there too.

What reasons JJ has are irrelevant in comaprison to his results. His results are mediocre (as Thule's data shows)

Marion Barber, to me, is 15 pounds of muscle away from being Jerome Bettis II.

And I am concerned about health b/c I think he may be a little too light to run like he does without some extra padding.

The guy looks like they lit his head on fire just about every damn play.
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Old 09-18-2007, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Well let me say that i for one am just glad to be 2-0. Barber may be better but we do have the highest scoring team in the league right The way this will probably play out this will be JJ's last year here anyway. When you think about it were 2-0 without 4 key starters a Q.B. that some say has bad mechanics a Defensive backfield that some say cant cover an overrated O-line and a front office that has no clue on how to build a team. I am just elated that we have started off so strong. Some say the Eagles are the team to beat in this division because they have supierior talent/coaching/front office people but I just have to believe that we will somehow overcome all of our weaknesses to win the east. I know thats going against some peoples beliefs but as a blind fan until proven otherwise I will believe.
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Old 09-18-2007, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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read what people write and you will understand the reasoning. It is mentality, not physical ability people are talking about. I believe Jones is going out right now and trying too hard to make the big play, because he has limited time. I don't think he is relaxed and just reacting, instead I think he is thinking too much. That is just assumptions, but it isn't anything that is hard to believe. There have been hundreds of athletes that have shown that happens, and say that happens.
that may very well be true, but the fact remains, we are using 2 backs, both get the same carries, and same opportunities, one is outperforming the other by leaps and bounds, the offense moves better with the other in, and the other is alot more complete....


my point is that, you go off of how well you play when given a chance, thats what this league is all about...thats like is saying we need to give troy hambrick a chance because he doesnt do much with 15 carries a game he needs more to get going...i just dont buy alot of the arguments people are giving...

as much as people complain about Barber getting the defense when their tired, what do you guys think he does to the defense when he is in there for JJ only to come back into? he gets defenses that are tired in the 2nd half, and he gets carries inside the 20 yd line....we arent seeing anymore 40 yd runs when the defense is tired, we dont see him break any tackles, we dont see the offense move as well when he is in...so whatever stats you use, or however you wanna say each guy does or doesnt perform because of certain factors, one thing doesnt lie, and thats how they perform when the ball is in their hands...
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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that may very well be true, but the fact remains, we are using 2 backs, both get the same carries, and same opportunities, one is outperforming the other by leaps and bounds, the offense moves better with the other in, and the other is alot more complete....


my point is that, you go off of how well you play when given a chance, thats what this league is all about...thats like is saying we need to give troy hambrick a chance because he doesnt do much with 15 carries a game he needs more to get going...i just dont buy alot of the arguments people are giving...

as much as people complain about Barber getting the defense when their tired, what do you guys think he does to the defense when he is in there for JJ only to come back into? he gets defenses that are tired in the 2nd half, and he gets carries inside the 20 yd line....we arent seeing anymore 40 yd runs when the defense is tired, we dont see him break any tackles, we dont see the offense move as well when he is in...so whatever stats you use, or however you wanna say each guy does or doesnt perform because of certain factors, one thing doesnt lie, and thats how they perform when the ball is in their hands...
I guess you missed it in my first post, but I said Jones is not a good fit for the current Cowboys.

As for Hambrick he is more of an example of Barbers situation. Did great with limited carries, but dropped off once he got more carries. Not saying that absolutely would happen to Barber, but that is what people worry about and it is valid.
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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I guess you missed it in my first post, but I said Jones is not a good fit for the current Cowboys.

As for Hambrick he is more of an example of Barbers situation. Did great with limited carries, but dropped off once he got more carries. Not saying that absolutely would happen to Barber, but that is what people worry about and it is valid.
I do agree with not fitting for us, BBD said something about having a fullback and i could see that working out better for him...


and as well that may be a concern like what happened wit hambrick, but you also have to look at lamont jordan being a backup then being a great feature back who you could of easily said he just does well because he's behind curtis martin, same thing for michael turner...if your a good back then your just good, your going to produce whether you get 15 or 25 carries i believe...


i dont even think we should make barber a workhorse, hell im still all for starting JJ, just think the carries should be split 20/10 in barbers favor no matter who starts
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Lamont Jordan hasn't been a good feature back either.
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Well let me say that i for one am just glad to be 2-0. Barber may be better but we do have the highest scoring team in the league right The way this will probably play out this will be JJ's last year here anyway. When you think about it were 2-0 without 4 key starters a Q.B. that some say has bad mechanics a Defensive backfield that some say cant cover an overrated O-line and a front office that has no clue on how to build a team. I am just elated that we have started off so strong. Some say the Eagles are the team to beat in this division because they have supierior talent/coaching/front office people but I just have to believe that we will somehow overcome all of our weaknesses to win the east. I know thats going against some peoples beliefs but as a blind fan until proven otherwise I will believe.

Team that is caring me is Washington. Looks like that D is back and Campbell is not as bad as anticipated.

Don't they are better than us but when G Williams gets that D rolling -- you gotta be concerned.
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fryman View Post
Lamont Jordan hasn't been a good feature back either.
I would say jury is out on what he can be. That Raiders line was horrid last year ... and playing from behind every game practically ,... and I think he was injured for some time.

He has looked good so far in 2007. I give Lamont an incomplete.
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Old 09-18-2007, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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I would say jury is out on what he can be. That Raiders line was horrid last year ... and playing from behind every game practically ,... and I think he was injured for some time.

He has looked good so far in 2007. I give Lamont an incomplete.
yea fair enough. I was thinking about 05 more than 06 for those reasons, but even in 05 the o-line was awful.
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Old 09-18-2007, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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Lamont Jordan has had 2 good games this year. I know cause I have him on my fantasy team LOL. I'm expecting good numbers against Cleveland.
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Old 09-18-2007, 09:32 PM    (permalink
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I'm pretty confident that the carries stay split the way they have been for the rest of this season, which is a good thing. What I'm worried about is next season if we bring in a RB other than Julius, Marion may become the feature back and the increased carries will make him lose his effectiveness. I have no clue why most people here can't understand that Marion will absolutely lose his effectiveness with an increased load. There is no quesiton about it.
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Old 09-18-2007, 09:50 PM    (permalink
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OK, so that makes the point irrelevant. Signing Bigg and getting Garret make no difference whatsoever.
That signing will make a difference on maybe half of the runs...if that. If you want to go back and look at the tape, try and tell me that Rivera is responsible every time Barber doesn't get a first down...and the step up in quality is not nearly significant enough to say that Barber did worse just because of a different offensive lineman. Even when Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson (probably the best guard in the league), Shaun Alexander's struggles could not be blamed solely on the loss of one offensive lineman. That is ludicrous.

And I'm pretty sure that the scheme of running the football with 1 yard to go doesn't change that much with a change of offensive coordinators. You still run the ball straight ahead, whether it's Sean Payton, Bill Parcells, or Jason Garrett calling the plays. And remember, Tony Sparano, who had a heavy hand in last year's offense, still has a large responsibility this year.
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Old 09-18-2007, 10:24 PM    (permalink
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That signing will make a difference on maybe half of the runs...if that. If you want to go back and look at the tape, try and tell me that Rivera is responsible every time Barber doesn't get a first down...and the step up in quality is not nearly significant enough to say that Barber did worse just because of a different offensive lineman. Even when Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson (probably the best guard in the league), Shaun Alexander's struggles could not be blamed solely on the loss of one offensive lineman. That is ludicrous.

And I'm pretty sure that the scheme of running the football with 1 yard to go doesn't change that much with a change of offensive coordinators. You still run the ball straight ahead, whether it's Sean Payton, Bill Parcells, or Jason Garrett calling the plays. And remember, Tony Sparano, who had a heavy hand in last year's offense, still has a large responsibility this year.
You brought up his 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 effectiveness in some context making a mildly anti-Barber-starting argument. I think this is correct?

If so, all I mentioned was that his effectiveness in this small role should be much better b/c .....

1) We ugraded 20% of the line significantly in the Running game by getting Big.

2) Our OC's is a little more aggressive and as a result his desire to pass (4th and 1 TD to TO) in these situations will open up those running lanes for MBIII

That was all I said. I think my point is reasonable. I do not believe that stat you choose was very good in context to this team and MBIII.

Not arguing the past nor am I saying this is 0/1 (bi-modal) arguement. Yes Sean ALexander struggled because he lost Hutch. No, 100% of his struggles are not a result of Hutch, maybe 50%, maybe 30%, maybe 80%,
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Old 09-19-2007, 12:19 AM    (permalink
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Old 09-19-2007, 10:15 AM    (permalink
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I have no clue why most people here can't understand that Marion will absolutely lose his effectiveness with an increased load. There is no quesiton about it.
please tell me how you can come to that conclusion with "no question about it"...thats like saying michael turner will lose his effectiveness if he increases his carries with another team not behind LT no question about it....it makes no sense, has no facts to back up the statement, and its been proven to be false many times again in the history of the NFL
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