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Old 01-26-2008, 12:47 PM    (permalink
jth1331
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So I've been hearing mixed reviews on Phillips. One person has noted that he hasn't done anything at Miami to make him think he's a playmaker that should be going in the upper half of the 1st round. Looking at his statistics, there is no denying he made very few plays. To me, it seems he should be valued as a late 1st rather than high 1st.
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Old 01-26-2008, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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on the broncos website there was a story about wr/kr eddie royal outta gt... i think we should take a look at him later in the draft
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Old 01-27-2008, 05:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
if you'd value phillips in the late first, who would have value at our pick? at this point, sed ellis is likely long gone, as are dorsey, long and clady. otah seems highly iffy.

further, do you think, with how many safeties have been picked high or at least earlier than expected, that phillips would last till the end of the first?
Thats just what I've been hearing, that he isn't necessarily worth that high of a pick.
And if he really is valued in the 20's, then what do you do at pick 12? You trade down.
If all of those guys, Dorsey, Long, Ellis, Clady, and whoever else are gone at pick 12, trade down, pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick.
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Old 01-27-2008, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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at 12 either you take BPA who might not even sometimes play till next year or could be traded away, very unlikely to happen being traded. Or you draft the player you want/need, even though the player is worthy of that pick, be a little aggressive.
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Old 01-27-2008, 09:15 PM    (permalink
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i think we should take kenny phillips if hes there.. theres no better safety in the draft and thats certainly a position we need so that champ bailey can focus solely on his man..
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Old 01-28-2008, 04:46 PM    (permalink
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we have a lot of possibilities, which means we're a team with a lot of holes, which is depressing
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Old 01-29-2008, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i hate when people suggest that a team should "just trade down" like office max makes an Easy Trade button or something. there is no guarantee that any other team would want to move UP in a relatively weak draft. there is no guarantee that we'd be able to get anything approaching value if we DID trade down.

so, let's again assume that phillips isn't a top half value. who do we take in the top half? i have no interest in trading down to 20 to gain an extra 5th round pick or something equally worthless. as of right now, i don't see anyone who might be available at our pick that would prompt anyone to move up, especially if new england is also looking to move down.
I'm sure there will be some player available at 12 that a team will want to move up to get, and trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick for. Sometimes I like the arguements you make, but sometimes you just go right over the top.
No, it isn't a guarantee that we will be able to trade down, but the possibility exists. Lets face it, we need more picks in the early rounds of this draft. We need to pick up at least an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick IMO. A QB may prompt someone to move up, or maybe for Rivers, maybe for a WR available.
I just think at 12, we are in an iffy situation. I don't want to spend that pick now on a safety who hasn't shown he is a playmaker, no DT will be worth that pick(assuming Dorsey and Ellis are gone), I would only want to take an OT at that spot if its Long or Clady(which probably will both be gone by then), and none of the LB's seem worth it for the Broncos to take at that high.
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Old 01-30-2008, 02:05 AM    (permalink
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so, let's again assume that phillips isn't a top half value. who do we take in the top half?
Assuming there is no value at DT, OT and S (which seems to be the tone of the discussion), I'd think we'd look at:

- Keith Rivers
- Jonathan Stewart
- DeSean Jackson
- Dan Connor

I'm sure some won't like the value at LB... but there is no issue in terms of talent, it's just they are somewhat devalued by the great depth at LB available in this draft. The offensive weapons are potential replacements for two of our more troubled Broncos...

That being said, I don't really believe there can be no OT value at 12... someone good will be available for consideration (Otah, Williams, Baker, etc).

... oh, and never underestimate the Florida connection. Someway, somehow Derrick Harvey might find his way into a Broncos jersey... ;)
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Old 01-31-2008, 12:12 AM    (permalink
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Default half a lie

"A glass half empty is indeed half full, but half a lie will never be half the truth"

Let us just take a second to realize that the draft is a LONG way away. The combine is less than one month and as we all know, players rise and fall significantly prior to, during, and after the combine.

I think we all agree 12th pick is an unfortunate position, we are truely slightly pregnant. This draft does not appear to be so deep at this time that "elite" value seems clearly available at 12; as such, why would someone trade up to number 12, conversely, what value is attainable for trading out of number 12.

I see 6 elite players in this draft (in no particular order), at this time:

1. Darren McFadden RB
2. Chris Long DE
3. Glenn Dorsey DT
4. Sedrick Ellis DT
5. Jake Long OT
6. Matt Ryan QB

I see a few players that are not elite but one or two of them could move into this elite status depending upon draft numbers, workout, and simple PR (as in buzz):

1. Ryan Clady OT
2. Vernon Gholston DE
3. Mike Jenkins CB
4. Kenny Phillips S
5. Brian Brohm QB (very doubtful)

As has been articulated on this thread, what team realistically wants to give up its first and second round pick (or even 1st and 3rd )to move up a few spaces to take Michael Oher or Rashard Mendenhall. . . Dan Snyder on the phone Coach Shanahan??

Shanahan, the GM, always seemingly believes the glass is half full. As such, our exegesis is academic as he could reach for someone. I just fear he reaches for the likes of Calais Campbell (sixe), Derrick Harvey (another Florida D-line) or Dan Connor (not a value at 12's signing price). I hope I am wrong.

The quote incidentially, not mine - written on a bottle of wine - 2003 Pinocchio Nero d' Avola from Sicily. We are half-lying to ourselves if we think we are just 1 player away. . . we want to believe but it is not true . . . but would it not be nice to see Jake Long or Glenn Dorsey in a Broncos uniform?
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Old 01-31-2008, 06:18 PM    (permalink
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Don't rule out an OT at #12 like Clady (if he's there) or Chris Williams (whose stock is on the rise). Or Sam Baker for that matter (hopefully after trading down first).

Honestly, offense might be the way to go in round 1, whether it be OT, RB, or even WR. That's where the value seems to be. Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall are both great RB prospects who would do well here, and a WR/KR like DeSean Jackson would impact two areas.

I can't imagine we'd take a DE in round 1. We have a lot invested at that position with Moss and Crowder, and there is plenty of depth behind him. There will be enough good prospects available at #12 at bigger need positions than to have to take a DE.

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Old 02-01-2008, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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I am truly shocked that scott would even attempt to give us some sort of End/ DT Tweener. Sure, we could use a DT, but one thing we don't need is a tweener. DT isn't our #1 priority, and anyone who thinks else can come talk to me. There is no logic in passing up on Kenny Phillips, or Clady. It's just mind blowingly absurd that he would even state that Denver is going to reach at #12 for a DE/DT Tweener, when more then half of our first day picks last year were DT's, DE's. We need to upgrade our aging and injury plaugued O-line, we have no safety of the future, and we need help at Lb he's giving us.. Merling? Also, he doesn't even mention that we might need something at another positon. It's all good though, we actually draft Merling, Shanahan will get fired. Seriously, don't drink the cool-aid. This is the equivalent of the Indianapolis Colts using a first day pick (2nd, 3rd rounder) on a QB.
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Old 02-11-2008, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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I'd say Johnathan Stewart. He's crazy good and will likely fall there. He can make Jay Cutler better and they need a RELIABLE RB to stick with him in his career.
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Old 02-15-2008, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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We need help everywhere.

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Old 02-15-2008, 10:44 PM    (permalink
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Not true!!!

The kid that runs out onto the field and grabs the tee on every kickoff before the opposition runs it back to our 40 yard line at every home game last year was flawless! He clearly does not need to be replaced.
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Old 02-26-2008, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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Hello everyone. This is my first post here though I've been lurking around the site for a couple years now. Huge Broncos fan for a long time so I figured I'd post my wish list for the #12 pick to start with. This is in order and only contains guys I think have a good chance of being there at #12.

1. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St. Best tackle prospect we have a chance of getting. And we need it after Lepsis' retirement.

2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. I didn't have him on my radar for the Broncos until the combine, but that combination of speed and size would be hard to turn down, even though RB isn't a position of need. He seems like a BAP type if he falls to #12.

3. Keith Rivers, OLB, USC. Ian Gold is going bye bye, and well he should since he forgot how to tackle. Rivers looks like the best defensive player we could take at #12 and is at a position of need.

4. DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. I had him up a spot before the combine but his size bothers me. Still, he's fast as hell and can help in the return game. Among the receivers he looks like a better compliment to Brandon Marshall than some of the other big guys.

5. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt. I had Jeff Otah in my top five before the combine but the reports aren't good. Williams, on the other hand, sounds better than expected. Williams might be a reach at #12 but I'd rather reach for a left tackle prospect with upside than a safety like Phillips just because we need a replacement for John Lynch. Also, his previous relationship with Jay Cutler may help him reach his potential a little easier.

A couple of players I'd really like to see Denver try to get in the later rounds.

1. Owen Schmitt, FB, WVU. This is so the dude I want crashing into linebackers. He also has some receiving skills out of the backfield. We haven't had a well-rounded, impact player at FB since Griffith left and I think it really shows.

2. Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado. Just a great football player. He'll be a beast on special teams, and his 'want to' will make him quality depth. He's the kind of guy that can come in and out-hustle better athletes. At least for awhile.
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Old 02-27-2008, 01:02 AM    (permalink
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1) the value at 12 is crap.
I think this is why people (including me) are looking at offense more than defense. The value at #12 is bad, and it's worse on defense than offense. Personally, if Clady is gone, I'd rather trade down to the 20s when some of the DL, LB, or Phillips won't be as much of a reach. Everyone knows that defense was the issue last year, but if you're stuck with #12 then take a #12caliber player. That looks like it's more likely to be an offensive player than a defensive player.

I agree with your post for the most part, I just think the Broncos are going to be forced to go offense if they can't trade the pick.
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Old 02-27-2008, 04:04 PM    (permalink
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I think Chris Williams is just as good as Otah if not more. He has higher tangibles IMO and is also more developed right now. I'd be happy to take him at 12, but if both him and Clady are there I would trade down a couple of spots and get our third back.
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Old 02-27-2008, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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I think our best hope for an advantageous trade down is if Mendenhall is still available at 12. His stock is high right now, and we're enough of a threat to take him that it might encourage some team to make an offer. Picking up a lower 1st and a 3rd would be a nice result.
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Old 02-28-2008, 01:26 AM    (permalink
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I think our best hope for an advantageous trade down is if Mendenhall is still available at 12. His stock is high right now, and we're enough of a threat to take him that it might encourage some team to make an offer. Picking up a lower 1st and a 3rd would be a nice result.
I had a similar thought, and if someone is really enamored of Mendenhall it might happen. The problem I see is that a team close enough to us so we'd only move down a few spots and pick up a third might be satisfied to just take Jonathan Stewart who is pretty similar. If a team farther back was thinking about it, say the Seahawks at #25, they'd have to give up more than a swap and a third rounder to move up as far as #12, so I still think we'd still be in a bit of jam in terms of trading down. You're right that Mendenhall has trade value there, but Stewart kind of blunts it.
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Old 02-28-2008, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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Are you guys serious? We are not going to take a RB in the first round. Why are you even talking about it...it's ludicrous. Henry and Young are more than capable of doing a good job. We have too many holes to blow a pick on a RB.
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Old 02-28-2008, 09:17 AM    (permalink
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I really like mendenhall and am excited to see what he does in the pros, but he shouldnt be a bronco. We got a couple good backs now, and shanny has a knack for picking up late round backs who are great.

I'm all for trading down if the good DT/DE/LBs are gone. I dont really want kenny phillips at 12 either. I wouldnt mind trading up, but the only players I would be willing to go up for are gholston or ellis. I really love the way gholston plays, and I think he has a lot of potential in the league.

But I know the broncos too well...they are gonna blow the draft somehow
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Old 02-28-2008, 10:57 AM    (permalink
Diehard
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The problem I see is that a team close enough to us so we'd only move down a few spots and pick up a third might be satisfied to just take Jonathan Stewart who is pretty similar. If a team farther back was thinking about it, say the Seahawks at #25, they'd have to give up more than a swap and a third rounder to move up as far as #12, so I still think we'd still be in a bit of jam in terms of trading down.
The thing about Stewart is that he's not a great fit for a team that zone blocks or runs a lot of stretch / outside / cutback plays. Mendenhall is a lot more flexible in that respect... and therefore that creates a bigger market.

I don't think you can expect to really get a lot on a trade down, as the talent level in the first round is pretty stable (and moderate) once you get past the first half-dozen prospects. Swapping down into the 20's and picking up a 3rd and something else (e.g. a 3rd in '09) would be just fine. Putting too much emphasis on JJ's draft value chart is just going to hinder a mutually beneficial deal from getting done.

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Old 02-28-2008, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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Are you guys serious? We are not going to take a RB in the first round. Why are you even talking about it...it's ludicrous.
We have to talk about Mendenhall because he's very likely to be the BAP at #12. The trend in the discussion is about trading the pick to someone who wants him, not taking him ourselves.

The only other player that looks like he'll be a great value and might fall to #12 is Clady. Him I would take in a heartbeat.

Unless Keith Rivers is still there, there is going to be zero value on defense at #12. Phillips at this point is going to be a reach. Kentwan Balmer is going to be a major reach. Dan Connor is a reach. The only defensive position that might have value at #12 is CB and that's the one postion we don't actually need.

So if Clady and Rivers are gone, and if you can't trade back you either have to take Mendenhall as the BAP, make a major reach for the best available DT, LB, or S, or (and this would be my preference if we get stuck with the pick) make a smaller reach to take the best available LT prospect which will be either Williams or Otah.
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Old 02-28-2008, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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as mentioned before the value at pick 12 isn't very good but it's not horrible either. assuming we stay where we are, the best way to go in the first round would be to address the defense. i don't see ellis or dorsey falling to us, which isn't a big concern because shanny seems intent on acquiring a veteran defensive tackle via trade. this is a HUGE need for us, the play from our tackles this past season was atrocious. the addition of a legitimate tackle could do wonders for our talented, but inexperienced line.

with the defensive line set, our primary focus shifts to drafting keith rivers. not only did we have a pathetic rush defense last season, covering tight ends also proved to be a huge weakness. rivers excels in coverage and has been compared to running like a 'gazelle'. he also brings leadership to a defense that lacked an identity, as champ mentioned many times this offseason. hopefully he'll be able to become what al wilson meant to our team in years past.

if rivers is off the board then kenny phillips becomes our main target. aside from defensive tackle, safety is our most glaring need. some would argue that he's a reach but i disagree. he has excellent size at 6'2'' and over 210 pounds. his forty time of 4.54 was not mind blowing, but sean taylor ran the same time four years ago and he turned out all right. from what i've seen from game tape, phillips is a reliable tackler and an overall smart player. he's developed a relationship with ed reed which can only help him. he seems to carry himself much like champ does, a little quiet but when he says something people listen.

our defense is in need of improvement far more then the offense and the offensive prospects aren't that intriguing besides. clady and williams are possibilities for a franchise left tackle but neither one really impresses me. clady didn't play against top competition and isn't overall physically dominating. williams has been described as soft and like clady, lacks a killer instict. wide receiver value is far better in the second or even fourth round and with all of our needs we don't have the luxury of taking a running back in the first round unless by some miracle mcfadden falls to us.

should be a fun draft day
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:12 AM    (permalink
jth1331
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See, Phillips will be a solid safety, I just think people will "expect more" from him if he's taken in the top 15. I'm seeing a lot less people making him a guaranteed top 15 pick now too.
Ryan Clady has to be the #1 target IMO, solidify the LT spot for the next decade. If anyone thinks that LT isn't, essentially, the primary need, then have fun watching Cutler on his back and Ramsey filling in for him when he gets injured doing to our poor LT competition as it is right now.
I know the Broncos have drastic needs on defense, but I want the guy who will be QB for this team to be protected.
As for if Clady is gone, then I without a doubt want to trade down. Desean Jackson, heck no please. RB? No thanks. DE? Nope. DT? No one worthy of taking that will be available in the 1st. That leaves LB and well, S as the positions available. I'm not totally enamored about taking a LB in the 1st, I honestly don't think adding a LB will help the team that much without addressing the front 4. Now S, yes, that is different. Personally, Broncos may need to reach on Phillips at 12, kinda like the Bills did with Whitner a couple years back. He may not be the "value" at that pick, but he will be a solid(meaning good) safety for years. Nothing spectacular, fancy or special, but he won't lose us games, however he also won't win games with a game clutching interception or fumble.
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