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Old 01-26-2008, 02:27 AM    (permalink
ElectricEye
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Default What do we do with the pick?

Alright, even though the season has yet to end for us, it's never too early to look ahead. We're picking a bit lower than we expected, and with Laurinaitis and Jenkins returning, we don't have an pick that sticks out anymore. Obviously, it would be ideal to trade down and maybe pick up another second or third if we could...but we all know how hard it can be to get rid of a top ten pick at times. So if we sit, who do we take?

The guy people are penciling in for us is Mike Jenkins, but I think that's a bit of a spite pick. Jenkins is good, but he's far from being the best player available. I wouldn't mind a defensive back with Asante's departure looking more and more inevitable, but not Jenkins.

McKelvin is another guy I've seen a few people having us reach for. I like this one more than Jenkins, but it still doesn't make a ton of sense. While we don't have an impact returner, I think we're fairly set on special teams, so the value he presents there doesn't appeal to us a heck of a lot. I like McKelvin better as a pure corner, but I don't think he fits our scheme as well as Jenkins. So for me, no to Leodis.

A guy I really like in this spot is Kenny Phillips. Even though we drafted Meriweather last year, he didn't particularly stick out enough for me to be completely sold on him. Besides, one of the good things about Meriweather is his versatility. We could move him to corner fulltime(He's already been playing there most of the time as is)to allow Phillips to lock down a safety spot. M As much as I love Rodney, we would be lucky to get another year out of him...and Sanders is a solid starter, but Phillips would be an upgrade over him as well. This one is still kinda tricky though. The opinions on Phillips vary greatly. Some are ridiculously high on him, but Kiper didn't even have him in the first round of his most recent mock. Scott however has him in his top five. I think I'm more with him on this one.

The most intriguing scenrio is if McFadden drops a bit. Maroney has been the man the past few weeks, and the kid still has star potential...but if McFadden is sitting there do we go for the raw talent? Two back systems have been very successful the past few years, and having a Maroney/McFadden backfield would be flat out intimidating for any team to line up against. I think we're pretty content bombing the ball for another few years though, and I think we would be hard pressed to find enough touches for everyone in this situation and it would end up doing more harm than good. Fun to think about, but it doesn't make much sense in the end.

Gholston is another interesting possibility. He's projected to go a bit higher than 7th in most mocks at this point, with him rarely escaping the Jet's at 6th, but it's by no means impossible for him to be here. I have mixed feelings on this pick. I love Gholston, and I think we would be an animal in our scheme, but at the same time, we need more help inside than out....and Gholston certainly isn't an inside type guy. Seau will probably retire, and Bruschi has a real possibility of following suite. Vrabel could move inside, but who else do we play there? I think we would prefer not to spend two first day picks on linebackers. This definitely has a lot to do with how healthy Colvin is. If Rosy isn't ready to play next year, it becomes a bit more likely for us to be calling Gholston's name come draft day.

A guy I like that not many people are talking about for us is Rivers. He weighed in at the senior bowl at 237, and still looked quick as hell. His frame isn't maxed out either. I would wager he could put on another 5-10 pounds, or maybe more. He would still profile as an inside guy for us, but he could be a really good one potentially. It would defiantly be refreshing to see a young linebacker with his sideline to sideline speed playing in our defense. There's the Pete Caroll connection here as well, but I don't think that's much of a factor at this point. The only thing is that he really doesn't fit into our scheme terribly well...but I still think he could play for us.

Beyond these guys, I don't think I would be all that thrilled with anyone else at the 7th spot. No one else really fits into what we want or need. If we can pick up a few extra picks without moving down a heck of a lot, I would defiantly do it. Pretty good depth at corner and linebacker in this draft. I'm not sure McKelvin and Jenkins are all that much better than the next tier of corners anyway. One of the guys in the next mix of corners(Lee, King, Godfrey, Talib, Porter, Cromartie..ect) will be there by the time we're picking in the second. If we get our hands on a bit higher of a second, Wheeler isn't out of the question either, and he fits in as good if not better than Rivers. Overall though, if we stick at 7, I would personally go with Phillips. It fills a major and a secondary need at the same time, allowing us to get the corner we need and picking up an impact safety to spot for Rodney until he's done.
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Old 01-26-2008, 08:22 AM    (permalink
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Meriweather has been beastly in the playoffs. I think he has really developed down the stretch, and this was a monster year for James Sanders. He got to play A LOT and you could see him grow into the starters role all season. Eugene Wilson still has a pulse, and I think he's done a good job coming in off the bench. Keeps him remotely healthy.

Mike Jenkins... see the sig. I am sick of tired of seeing him projected there just because he is a corner. Kenny Phillips I like there even less. If they hadn't taken Meriweather last year, I'd love it. But I think Meriweather and Sanders will be great back there once Rodney hangs them up. For whatever reason, the guy I am liking right now is Aqib Talib. Not at #7 obviously, which is why I really don't mind a trade down into the 15-22 range and everything that comes with.

Keith Rivers is the one that really intrigues me. If they stay at 7 and the big six are all gone, I think he may be the guy I want to see come in. I'd love to see Gholston fall. If any of the big six fall, that's the one I think they'd jump at.

All of that said, I think there is about an 80% chance they trade down. The money is just too high that far up in the draft. What they have to be hoping happens is that one of the six teams ahead of them does something off the wall and someone Darren McFadden or Matt Ryan are sitting there at #7. If McFadden is at 7, I'd say it is 45/55 they draft and keep him, but just a little more likely they try to get a first/second and 09 first or second out of someone for the pick. Someone would do it, and the six teams ahead of the Pats are not in as much of a position to make that kind of move.

The Pats proved last year that they'll take chances on a trade. They estimated that the 49ers would be picking higher than 28 last year and they hit the jackpot.

I'm curious to see if we get any compensation picks for losing Graham or Banta-Cain. That may change things a little as well. That is essentially playing with house money and I could see them dumping some late picks to move up in earlier rounds...
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Old 01-26-2008, 12:02 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, it will be interesting to see how the comp pick situation works out this year. This year is different than the past few, whereas we have legitimate needs this year, so getting those and moving up and around a bit would be nice.

I really, really, really hope McFadden falls. If that were to happen, this entire situation gets a lot more fruitful. We either end up with the best talent in the draft, or it becomes a heck of a lot easier to attract a trading partner. Ideally, Jerry Jones falls in love with McFadden, and we get Dallas' first rounders and maybe a third, but that's a tad bit far fetched. Still, we could get a pretty decent deal if McFadden is there.

Assuming we trade down, who do we go after? I don't think we would trade out of the first round entirely this year, so we'll probably have our pick of the Harvey/Talib/McKelvin lot. Out of those guys, I'm not a big fan of Harvey. I like Groves better, and we would have a shot at picking him up at the end of the second anyway.
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Old 01-26-2008, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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I would actually like for the pats to draft kenny phillips, as that allows us to move meriweather to corner and have phillips interchange with the other safeties. I think that this will be the year that we actually draft a linebacker before the 5th round, because I see both bruschi and seau retiring if the patriots win the superbowl. Harrison could retire as well, what better note to go out on than a 19-0 season? I think Oscar Lua, the 7th round draft pick out of so cal last year will push for playing time next year as well.
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Old 01-26-2008, 07:32 PM    (permalink
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Lua didn't play this year, but I liked everything I heard about him during the preseason and camps. We'll see, but yeah, I could see him getting some playing time. Pierre Woods has looked pretty good in spot duty as well.
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Old 01-27-2008, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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He was on the IR all year, maybe because he probably wouldn't have had a roster spot otherwise
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Old 01-27-2008, 08:40 PM    (permalink
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I dont think the Rivers pick is ideal. I dont like him as an ILB in the 3-4. To me, it doesnt matter how much weight he puts on, he isnt a true ILB. Kenny Phillips is an intruiging pick. I havent minded Merriweather the last several games, and Kenny Phillips is a solid safety, and would be a great replacement to Rodney. I dont think that LB is a necessary pick in the 1st round. If we are looking for a ILB, there arent any worthy of the #7 pick.

I dont think we need to adress DL in the 1st round either. Unless one of Chris Long or Vernon Gholston were to fall.

Its a tough position to be in, but to be honest, I like the Phillips idea.
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Old 01-29-2008, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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Let's take a corner. Mike Jenkins or D. Rodgers-Cromartie.
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6. Brian Witherspoon, CB, Stillman
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:49 PM    (permalink
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Sure, let's do that. But not at 7.
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Old 01-29-2008, 09:14 PM    (permalink
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If Gholston is available I think he would be a great get. With Malcolm Jenkins staying in school, I don't think any corner would be a good value at #7. Kenny Phillips would certainly be an intriguing pick because he would add even more young talent to this secondary, but I think a DE/LB is the way to go. Pierre Woods has looked good in limited time and Lua sounds like a good find, but Bruschi, Seau, and Vrabel will all need to be replaced soon. We need a linebacker and Gholston looks like a great fit, Harvey is a possibility too.
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Old 01-29-2008, 09:23 PM    (permalink
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Im not A Patriot fan but I could truly see the Pats trading this pick and moving down. I personally think they probably are looking linebacker or safty and they will be shelling out big bucks to moss. I dont see them shelling out big bucks to unproven talent. The management is to smart and I see them trading out to a team reaching for Either Brohm or McFadden. I think the cowboys know this and thats why they are trying to move ahead of them.
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Old 01-29-2008, 09:56 PM    (permalink
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You know what. The more I think about it, I wouldnt be at all surprised if we trade this pick for a next years pick. This team was one of the best teams in NFL history. Next year we have the easiest schedule int he league and I think we could do just fine with anther year with these guys. I really dont feel that it is necessary for us to draft at #7. Gholston and Long would be nice, but Seymour and Warren/Green are fine where they are and dont need an upgrade. Sure, CB is a need, there isnt really anyone capable of the #7 pick, and we can get just as good value later on in the draft. LB is the same as CB, and I just dont where Keith Rivers could fit in, in the 3-4.

I think it makes sense and get another 1st rounder next year, where some better prospects at the positions we need are coming out.
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Old 01-29-2008, 09:59 PM    (permalink
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I think this is the year we keep the pick, assuming one of the guys we are targeting is still there. Trading a pick for a selection the following year gets pointless if you do it every year, and we have a top 10 pick this time around. No need to deal it.
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Old 01-29-2008, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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i wish we could trade with the cowboys and pick up a DB and maybe philip wheeler. that's my first round dream scenario, provided gholston isn't available.
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Old 01-29-2008, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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I think this is the year we keep the pick, assuming one of the guys we are targeting is still there. Trading a pick for a selection the following year gets pointless if you do it every year, and we have a top 10 pick this time around. No need to deal it.
But my point is, is there anyone that we really need that is a #7 overall pick? To me, there isnt. CB, LB or S are not worthy of the #7 pick. The positions that are worthy of the #7 pick are RB, OL and DT, all of which we dont need. I dont really see us taking anyone at this pick, unless it is a ultimate reach.
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Old 01-29-2008, 10:12 PM    (permalink
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I think if there's a year to keep the pick, this is it. I could see us trading down, but not into next years draft. We need to keep fresh after this season.
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Old 01-29-2008, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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I think if there's a year to keep the pick, this is it. I could see us trading down, but not into next years draft. We need to keep fresh after this season.
But the point I was making included that fact of how easy next year is. I think we have like a .346 avg winning percentage. Even if we had a pretty good rotation, we could still do very well next year.
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Old 01-29-2008, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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They trade the pick Pay the proven players. and move down and gain picks to help rebuild and restock they're aging defense.
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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Scott gave us Gholston and Cason in the latest mock. If things shake out like that, sitting is more than fine haha.
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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Scott gave us Gholston and Cason in the latest mock. If things shake out like that, sitting is more than fine haha.
I would LOVE that.
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Scott gave us Gholston and Cason in the latest mock. If things shake out like that, sitting is more than fine haha.
That's scary good. Your dynasty will only get stronger.

As for the earlier mention of comp picks, I don't think you guys are getting any. Your free agents signings (Stallworth, Morris, K.Brady, Washington, not sure if there were any else) will offset your losses (TBC, Graham, not sure on any else)
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Scott gave us Gholston and Cason in the latest mock. If things shake out like that, sitting is more than fine haha.
to be honest, i dont think any one team could do better with two rounds.
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:31 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, that is beyond ideal. I am excited that this DT from USC has elevated himself into the top 5ish, because that should hopefully drop a McFadden/Long/Gholston on our lap. Of course, that assumes that Matt Ryan goes to Atlanta...
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:48 PM    (permalink
Billingsley26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay View Post
Yeah, that is beyond ideal. I am excited that this DT from USC has elevated himself into the top 5ish, because that should hopefully drop a McFadden/Long/Gholston on our lap. Of course, that assumes that Matt Ryan goes to Atlanta...
I would be happy with anyone of Mcfadden, Long or Gholston.
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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Matty Ice has to come up big for the New England area one more time haha.
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