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Old 12-28-2010, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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They did a recent writeup also, explaining "Big Win %" and mixing that with the "luck" factor.

http://community.advancednflstats.co...-playoffs.html

A snippet from the article:

Quote:
Yet on reflection it shouldn't have been -- nothing else seems possible, given a key fact reported on this site: half of all NFL games are decided by luck.

Say a 10-6 record is needed to make the playoffs and two teams do it. In each's 16-game schedule eight games are determined by luck and eight by merit. Team A is a bit lucky and two of its "luck" games switch to wins, so it goes 6-2 in them (instead of 4-4). In its "merit" games it need go only 4-4, 50%, for its 10-6. But Team B is a bit unlucky and two of its "luck" games switch to losses, so it goes 2-6 in them. It has to be powerful enough to go 8-0 in its "merit" games, 100%, to get to 10-6.

Head-to-head, Team B should score 75% against Team A in spite of their equal 10-6 records, because on the merits it is a 100-0 team playing a 50-50 team. (In four games versus A it should go 2-0 on merit and 1-1 on luck.)

And this points to something else: As Team B, much the better team, did worse in close games but better in one-sided ones, it is success not in close games but in one-sided games (those determined "on merit") that predicts success in the playoffs. Among teams with equal records, those that win more one-sided games and lose more close games will do better in the post season.
The article defines the Packers as this years "Team B," having more wins based on merit than on luck. After 14 games played, Green Bay ranked 3rd in big win % while Chicago is tied for 12th with Atlanta.
What it boils down to is, despite the w/l record, this is a damn good, tough football team. We can do some damage in the post season, starting by winning this week against a very solid Bears team.
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Old 12-28-2010, 07:23 PM    (permalink
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pro bowl rosters out...and it again shows why it has become a worthless "accomplishment" since half the people who make it don't deserve to.

5 packers made it(Jennings, Clifton, Matthews, Woodson, and Collins)... yet the 3 most deserving guys on the team did not. Woodson and Collins got in based on name recognition. Tramon should have been in over both and it's only because he isn't well known that he was left off this year. No CB is playing better than him in the NFC, none. B.J. Raji also should have made it, as well as Rodgers, obviously.
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Old 12-28-2010, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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Tramon Williams and Aaron Rodgers are first alternates. Josh Sitton, BJ Raji, AJ Hawk, and Donald Driver are other alternates.
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Old 12-28-2010, 09:40 PM    (permalink
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Jay Ratliff making it over BJ Raji is the worst of all the travesties.
Ratliff sucks except rushing the passer, and Raji has outdone him there this year by far. And Dallas sucks, we're good, and we beat Dallas 45-7. Raji was a 1st round draft pick as well.
Pathetic.

And as I posted in the main Pro Bowl thread, Brees making it ahead of Rodgers is worse than Ryan.

But Brees won a Super Bowl, is the 2010 Sports Illustrated Person of the Year, he saved the city of New Orleans. Oh, he's doubled up on Rodgers in Ints too, I think 21-to-10 for Brees.

Two Giants OL making it and no Sitton is horses**t as well. I didn't see any Giants Pro Bowlers Sunday.

SIDENOTE: HOW BOUT THOSE VIKINGS.... they now take a 17-7 lead into the 4th quarter at Philly. If they can avoid choking it away, that would clinch the #2 seed for the Bears, which will make them mentally let down a little this week against us. Not sure if Lovie will rest guys too.... but mentally, they might lose a tiny edge.

And that would mean we'd play at Philly in the WC game, not at Chicago.

The Vikings defense is crushing Vick tonight. I like our chances there being able to gameplan for Vick, esp if Cullen Jenkins is back... anyway, come on Vikes, hang on.
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Old 12-28-2010, 09:44 PM    (permalink
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The Bears would still have a (very) outside shot at the #1 seed, but that will be determined just before our game starts.

And I definitely rather see Philly pull this out and take the #2 seed. **** the Bears.
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Old 12-28-2010, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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The Bears would still have a (very) outside shot at the #1 seed, but that will be determined just before our game starts.

And I definitely rather see Philly pull this out and take the #2 seed. **** the Bears.
Wow. But dude, I'd rather we have a gimme.

Chances are the Bears rest their starters now. Unless CAROLINA beats ATLANTA AT ATLANTA BEFORE OUR GAME STARTS, the Bears are locked as the #2 seed.

**** YES!!! PLAYOFFS HERE WE COME!! No WAY they play Urlacher, Peppers, Cutler at Lambeau in January. No way.

It's also nice because you have to think if we get up big by half they'll pull Rodgers and Matthews.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm not just looking to get into the playoffs, I want to win in the playoffs. I'd rather play the Bears at full strength this week if it meant we got to play them again rather than the Eagles. Although the Eagles aren't looking too tough after tonight.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:49 PM    (permalink
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I dont think Chicago is going to rollover. They hate us, we hate them. They would love to knock us out of the playoffs and they'll practice all week with the mindset they could be playing for the #1 seed.

We should win since we have a lot more on the line, and I'm assuming Atlanta will win. But, I don't think it's a gimme.
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Old 12-29-2010, 12:27 AM    (permalink
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I dont think Chicago is going to rollover. They hate us, we hate them. They would love to knock us out of the playoffs and they'll practice all week with the mindset they could be playing for the #1 seed.

We should win since we have a lot more on the line, and I'm assuming Atlanta will win. But, I don't think it's a gimme.
Yeah, I can't really see Lovie Smith deciding to roll over for the Packers.

While I really didn't want to have to play Philadelphia in the first round, the silver lining is that they looked terrible against Minnesota.
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Old 12-29-2010, 12:34 AM    (permalink
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I dont think Chicago is going to rollover. They hate us, we hate them. They would love to knock us out of the playoffs and they'll practice all week with the mindset they could be playing for the #1 seed.

We should win since we have a lot more on the line, and I'm assuming Atlanta will win. But, I don't think it's a gimme.
Atlanta hadn't lost a home game since week 16 and have to feel bitter about that. Let's just hope the starters are playing till at least halftime
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Old 12-29-2010, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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We rolled over for the Packers in 2006 when we had everything wrapped up, don't see any reason why we wouldn't do it now. Bears have bigger **** to worry about than a regular season game that means nothing.
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Old 12-29-2010, 12:56 AM    (permalink
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We rolled over for the Packers in 2006 when we had everything wrapped up, don't see any reason why we wouldn't do it now. Bears have bigger **** to worry about than a regular season game that means nothing.
much better defense in 2006 and a much better running game
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Old 12-29-2010, 12:57 AM    (permalink
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No idea what that has to do with our desire to play our starters in a meaningless game.
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Old 12-29-2010, 02:15 AM    (permalink
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Well, I'm all for the Bears resting their starters. I think if the game is close, they'll keep pushing hard, but if the Pack get up big early, the Bears will fold up shop and yank guys and focus on being ready for the playoffs

I don't care who the Packers play in the playoffs...just win
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Old 12-29-2010, 03:33 AM    (permalink
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Well, I'm all for the Bears resting their starters. I think if the game is close, they'll keep pushing hard, but if the Pack get up big early, the Bears will fold up shop and yank guys and focus on being ready for the playoffs

I don't care who the Packers play in the playoffs...just win
Yeah, let's not act like the Bears can't beat us. Hester alone can beat us.

I'll take a gimme week 17 and the Eagles in the playoffs. Bring it.

And you really think the Bears are going to practice full strength? Atlanta plays Carolina AT ATLANTA to lock up homefield throughout. If there was a game all season I'd put money on, it'd be that one. Atlanta wins, Bears sit starters, we win, play Philly.
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Old 12-29-2010, 06:34 AM    (permalink
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Who cares who rests who or not. We NEED a win to get in and thats all that matters.
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Old 12-29-2010, 07:39 AM    (permalink
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Well, if the Bears were the 3 seed, we'd have to beat them twice in a row. And we all remember how that worked last year with Arizona.

Philly is wildly inconsistent. I think they're still in 'elite' status because of the Redskins game. But, since then, they've been just good.

Playing Vick in the first round of the playoffs brings back bad wildcard memories too though.
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Old 12-29-2010, 07:56 AM    (permalink
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Well, if the Bears were the 3 seed, we'd have to beat them twice in a row. And we all remember how that worked last year with Arizona.

Philly is wildly inconsistent. I think they're still in 'elite' status because of the Redskins game. But, since then, they've been just good.

Playing Vick in the first round of the playoffs brings back bad wildcard memories too though.
True, but that defense back then sucked, wasn't the 3-4, didn't have Capers as coordinator, didn't have Matthews and Bishop hunting Vick.
And I think that damn team back then may have had Ahmad Carroll?

We know we can beat Philly. But first things first, we need to beat the Bears. I mean get the W. We already outplayed the hell out of them in Chicago in week 3, but we didn't come away with the W for many reasons. We simply need to get the W this Sunday.

I expect Lovie to try and get them to play 100%, but mentally they won't be sharp, and eventually they will pull and rest some key guys who are banged up... (wait, the Bears don't have key any injuries?)
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Old 12-29-2010, 07:57 AM    (permalink
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I expect Lovie to try and get them to play 100%, but mentally they won't be sharp, and eventually they will pull and rest some key guys who are banged up... (wait, the Bears don't have key any injuries?)
There's no way they stick Cutler out there against Matthews in Lambeau in January in a meaningless game. No way. I don't see it. I imagine Peppers and Urlacher would sit, also. Not sure whom else.
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Old 12-29-2010, 08:58 AM    (permalink
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There's no way they stick Cutler out there against Matthews in Lambeau in January in a meaningless game. No way. I don't see it. I imagine Peppers and Urlacher would sit, also. Not sure whom else.
You don't think they will even start and play some?
Or do you think they'll play a quarter or a half?

Does anyone see any similarities at this point in time between the 2007-08 world champion NY Giants season path and this 2010 Green Bay Packers path?

Giants barely got in, they had some big injuries, particularly at the DB position.
They had to win 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl, including beating 2 teams (Dallas and us) whom they had lost to during that regular season.

Late in the regular season, they almost beat the undefeated Patriots....

And then in the Super Bowl, they faced and beat the God Tom Brady and the invincible Patriots.

Can we follow that same path?

We'd have to also win 3 road games, including at Atlanta where we lost during the regular season, and then perhaps at Chicago where we lost during the regular season. Both the #1 & #2 seeds, just like the Giants beat in 07/08.

Can you imagine the rivalry intensity if it was Packers @ Bears in the NFC Title game?
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Old 12-29-2010, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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Yes and No to the Superbowl.

-Yes, we've gotten hot at times and looked unbeatable. That stretch involving the Cowboys, Jets and Vikings was pretty impressive. We are a complete team. High powered offense and solid defense. And there are no teams in the NFL that are remotely unbeatable this year. When the Packers are at their best, I do believe they are top 2-3 teams in football.

-But, the fact remains, we are decimated by injuries and we would have to play 3 brutal road games...likely at Philly, at Atlanta and at New Orleans. Any one of those games would qualify as our toughest win of the season (except maybe the win at NYJ) and to think we can pull off 3 wins in a row like that is a stretch. Especially considering we're lacking in certain aspects including play late in close games. That crap needs to be straightened out before we can realistically think about making a post season run.

-I hate these 2 words, but making the playoffs would, to some degree, be a major moral victory this year. If we win this weekend, I hope they go balls out, and take some crazy chances early and often. Aaron Rodgers and this young team getting one playoff win under their belt would thrill me. so,

Making the Playoffs=Win
Winning a playoff game=Awesome
Making the Superbowl=Pipedream
Winning the Superbowl=why not.
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Old 12-29-2010, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post
You don't think they will even start and play some?
Or do you think they'll play a quarter or a half?

Does anyone see any similarities at this point in time between the 2007-08 world champion NY Giants season path and this 2010 Green Bay Packers path?

Giants barely got in, they had some big injuries, particularly at the DB position.
They had to win 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl, including beating 2 teams (Dallas and us) whom they had lost to during that regular season.

Late in the regular season, they almost beat the undefeated Patriots....

And then in the Super Bowl, they faced and beat the God Tom Brady and the invincible Patriots.

Can we follow that same path?

We'd have to also win 3 road games, including at Atlanta where we lost during the regular season, and then perhaps at Chicago where we lost during the regular season. Both the #1 & #2 seeds, just like the Giants beat in 07/08.

Can you imagine the rivalry intensity if it was Packers @ Bears in the NFC Title game?
they might get one drive on both sides, but guys like Cutler, Frote, Olsen, Peppers, Urlacher, Briggs, and Tilliman might sit
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Old 12-30-2010, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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Gotta give a shout out to Brandon Jackson:

Brandon Jackson has over 1000 yards of total offense.


Also, I am really hoping A-Rod has a huge day, to be specific I hope he has 307 yards passing and 3 TDs. That would give him 4000 yards and 30 TDs. If he posts those numbers he would be the only QB in Packer history to have a QB rating of 100+ in two consecutive seasons.
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Old 12-30-2010, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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I dont think Chicago is going to rollover. They hate us, we hate them. They would love to knock us out of the playoffs and they'll practice all week with the mindset they could be playing for the #1 seed.

We should win since we have a lot more on the line, and I'm assuming Atlanta will win. But, I don't think it's a gimme.
I expect something in between. The Bears want to win and they will try to. They don't want to see us in the playoffs either since they barely squeaked out a win at home against us earlier in the season and they would rather play a team that NORTH of Chicago, negating a big part of the home field advantage they earned.


It's been a few days now and I can honestly say Aaron Rodgers played not only the best single game of his career but the best 60 minutes of football I've ever seen out of a quarterback in my life. If you look at the stats they stack up with just about anyone, 25/37, 404 yards, 4 TDs, 1 sack, 0 turnovers, 45 offensive points. That only a small addition to my argument, however. He executed plays to what I thought was perfection about 90% of the time. I only counted maybe 2 or 3 throws that were off target. The most impressive was the windows he was throwing to. He put so many passes right on target exactly where his receivers needed it just about every time, to the point where you wouldn't even go back and say "next time 1 inch higher or 1/2 second earlier". It was absolutely ridiculous. His pocket presence, scrambling, and decision making were equally excellent.

Disclaimer time now: I haven't watched every football game since I've been born or probably even 5% of them. The big contenders for this personal award from me would be the great games by Brett Favre (Oakland after father's death comes to mind), Tom Brady (2007 mostly), and Peyton Manning (mostly the 05-08). Here's why this game stands top: Brett Favre had some amazing games but rarely (if ever) did he not make a completely boneheaded play throwing it right to a defender, even if it was dropped, or got TDs by just throwing jump balls, or consistently fit balls in as accurate as Rodgers did. Brady's greatest games to me were when he had Moss and he lowered the degree of difficulty significantly. Peyton, nothing comes to mind really, though I think he's the best quarterback in football right now, I can't think of a game where he's been more impressive with moving around and throwing on the run, and he will miss throws and get frustrated.

I like to try to keep track of things like this so when I see excellence I've never seen before it sticks with me for awhile. For example my "best interception ever" was Charles Woodson during his Heisman year at Michigan (I had that before he came to GB) - and that was recently broken in the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State game.

Here are the extremely sexy interceptions:







Bonus: Greatest sack I've ever seen although I've only seen the highlight, by the greatest MLB ever. It's at 5:43 against the 49ers. Lots of candidates for "greatest ______ ever" in that video though, it's my favorite highlight video.

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Old 12-30-2010, 07:40 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
From Sept, 2007:

The Green Bay Packers claimed fullback John Kuhn on waivers, placed running back Noah Herron on injured reserve and signed seven players to the practice squad Sunday. The transactions were announced by Ted Thompson, Executive Vice President, General Manager and Director of Football Operations.

Claimed on waivers from Pittsburgh, Kuhn (pronounced KOON), played nine games with the Steelers in 2006. The second-year pro from Shippensburg (Pa.) spent the 2005 season on the Steelers' practice squad.

Singed to the practice squad were wide receiver David Clowney, wide receiver Chris Francies, tight end Clark Harris, linebacker Spencer Havner, tackle Orrin Thompson, quarterback Paul Thompson and running back Corey White.
Quote:
Nov 29, 2006

The Green Bay Packers Wednesday signed cornerback Tramon Williams to return their practice squad to eight players. Executive Vice President, General Manager and Director of Football Operations Ted Thompson announced the signing.
Williams, a 5-foot-11, 182-pound rookie out of Louisiana Tech, originally signed as a non-drafted free agent with the Texans before Houston released him in its final preseason roster reduction. His first name is pronounced trah-MAHN.
I find that amazing.... Executive Vice President, General Manager and Director of Football Operations Ted Thompson has run this team for about 6 years now, and he's never drafted a good CB for us. But then he's found and signed 2 undrafted guys in Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, who are as good as most team's #1 & #2 guys. Maybe Sam isn't quite there yet, but think about it: He's the only new guy added to the CBackfield from last year's which was torched many times. Just think if he improves along a similar curve as Tramon did.

Last edited by J-Mike88 : 12-30-2010 at 10:14 PM. Reason: Added Tramon
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