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Old 03-02-2008, 11:35 PM    (permalink
JJJ888
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Default Quarterbacks and the Wonderlic

I'm looking for a bit of help here. I recently became interested in the correlation between quarterback performance and their wonderlic score; in other words, do quarterbacks who get higher scores on their wonderlic perform better in the NFL?

I've compiled the wonderlic scores of 32 quarterbacks drafted between the years of 1999 and 2005 who have, at some point in their careers, had the opportunity to be starting quarterbacks (the one exception, Aaron Rodgers, will probably be removed from final analysis). In order to plot quarterback's success rate vs. their wonderlic scores, I needed to grade each quarterback's career performance. This is where I need your help. I'm looking to assess the overall value of a quarterback's career, not just evaluate his present play. So, although Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb may not get the highest marks for their more recent play, I would expect them to grade relatively high based on their ultimate career play. Younger quarterbacks I have, however, had to project how well they will do with the rest of their careers.

I will post the grades that I have preliminarily given each player here (please note that any grades are subjective and tend to show some bias). Please try to be as objective as you can when you assess these grades and not post anything extreme (such as Rex Grossman = 0, a very likely possibility).

Daunte Culpepper 85
Donovan McNabb 92
Aaron Brooks 80
Tom Brady 100
Marc Bulger 89
Michael Vick 80
Drew Brees 89
David Garrard 85
Carson Palmer 92
Tony Romo 92
Eli Manning 92
Ben Roethlisberger 92
Phillip Rivers 85

Tim Couch 59
Akili Smith 50
Cade McNown 50
Quincy Carter 62
David Carr 62
Joey Harrington 65
Kyle Boller 60
Rex Grossman 70
Charlie Frye 60

Chad Pennington 73
Josh McCown 73
Byron Leftwich 75
Aaron Rodgers 74
Jason Campbell 77
Kyle Orton 71
J. P. Losman 75
Matt Schaub 77
Alex Smith 75
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Old 03-02-2008, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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just wondering, hopefully you know, when did they first to test guys using the wonderlic?
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Old 03-02-2008, 11:42 PM    (permalink
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Orton > Grossman? And I'd grade Carr higher than Harrington
Josh McCown seems kinda high for his lack of burn.
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Old 03-02-2008, 11:44 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by neko4 View Post
just wondering, hopefully you know, when did they first to test guys using the wonderlic?
I don't know that...the data I used only went back to 1999, although I know that the Wonderlic was used at least in 1998 and almost surely before then.

Another interesting note: the average QB score for the wonderlic was 24, according to Wikipedia, while the highest average score for any position, Offensive tackle, was 26.
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Old 03-02-2008, 11:45 PM    (permalink
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don't doubt it, Orton is better then Grossman. he's may not be "sexy", but he isn't "bad rex" either
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Old 03-02-2008, 11:47 PM    (permalink
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Orton > Grossman? And I'd grade Carr higher than Harrington
Josh McCown seems kinda high for his lack of burn.
I originally divided the quarterbacks into 3 categories (indicated by the breaks in the text) of Hit, Miss, and Question Mark. Orton, due partially to my lack of watching him, and partially to the fact that he hasn't started that many games, ended up in the question mark category, as did McCown. Those guys may actually may be completely thrown out the window in final analysis, since they sort of break the continuum in terms of grades...we'll see.

And just so you all know, I'd appreciate honest numerical grades if you can...I may end up compiling the responses you guys give me to calculate final grades.
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Old 03-03-2008, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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Just a question, how do you define the scale? It might be best to put a definition/description on the various ranges in the grading scale. (i.e. what does it mean to be graded at 92? How much of a difference is there between a 95 and an 85? An 85 and a 70? etc)
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Old 03-03-2008, 12:26 AM    (permalink
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where are wonder scores
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Old 03-03-2008, 12:37 AM    (permalink
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here is a site with QB wonderlic scores
http://www.macmirabile.com/Wonderlic.htm
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:08 AM    (permalink
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wonderlic really IMO is worthless.
you don't need a study to know that. you just have to take it and then check out the football relevance to it..
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:12 AM    (permalink
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you should perhaps develop a points system for things to better help you determine the score that a quarterback receives... in other words, give a certain number of points for a superbowl win, for TD passes, yards, negative for interceptions ect...

I don't think it would be that difficult to do, and would definitely help you out as far as making these numbers less arbitrary. You would obviously have issues with the younger guys, but that is to be expected regardless.
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Old 03-03-2008, 03:16 AM    (permalink
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Average season production wouldn't be a bad standard, but I don't really think that vague estimation is so bad for something like this. That said, I think you'll find that the wonderlic and success have little correlation.
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Old 03-03-2008, 03:17 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paranoidmoonduck View Post
Average season production wouldn't be a bad standard, but I don't really think that vague estimation is so bad for something like this. That said, I think you'll find that the wonderlic and success have little correlation.
getting an 8 on a wonderlic might mean your as dumb as a rock, but amazing at football.
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Old 03-03-2008, 03:39 AM    (permalink
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Big ben and Eli Manning should be higher than Romo, they have both won a superbowl! Romo should be about 90 IMO.
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Old 03-03-2008, 03:39 AM    (permalink
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hahaha Chris Leak scored an 8,....no wonder he sucks..
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Old 03-03-2008, 07:05 AM    (permalink
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Its very interesting but I dont think it matters to much. Much of those players in the 50-60 range were picked in the 1st round then guys like Tom Brady that scores a 100 gets picked in the 6th? Doubt it matters much...
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:39 AM    (permalink
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I think it depends on what kind of qb you are, pocket passer you should have high score, like Brady and Bulger did.

If you can move around (not in the pocket) scramble, then if the score lower its not going to matter as much. McNabb 14, Culpepper 17.

But its not always right Alex Smith's score was 40
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:49 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
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I think it depends on what kind of qb you are, pocket passer you should have high score, like Brady and Bulger did.

If you can move around (not in the pocket) scramble, then if the score lower its not going to matter as much. McNabb 14, Culpepper 17.

But its not always right Alex Smith's score was 40
But it is arguable that Alex Smith should have never been the prospect he was. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 50 but that doesn't make him a good prospect. It is just something can be roughly used when comparing QBs of equal talent. Especially when making the jump into the NFL you often have to rely more on decision making ability rather than just getting by on pure talent like you often can in college.
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:57 AM    (permalink
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http://www.macmirabile.com/Wonderlic.htm

Has all the Wonderlics for QBs for awhile. May be helpful


And yeah, give us a scale and what it means. What is a 100? What is a 50?
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Old 03-03-2008, 09:08 AM    (permalink
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Didn't Vince Young get like a negative score?
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Old 03-03-2008, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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Didn't Vince Young get like a negative score?
He did horrible the first time he took it. But then took it again I believe and did better. Nothing special but at least better than it was.
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Old 03-03-2008, 09:27 AM    (permalink
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Peyton Manning - 28
Ryan Leaf - 27

The correlation is obvious...
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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But it is arguable that Alex Smith should have never been the prospect he was. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 50 but that doesn't make him a good prospect. It is just something can be roughly used when comparing QBs of equal talent. Especially when making the jump into the NFL you often have to rely more on decision making ability rather than just getting by on pure talent like you often can in college.
Fitzpatrick got a 38
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paranoidmoonduck View Post
Average season production wouldn't be a bad standard, but I don't really think that vague estimation is so bad for something like this. That said, I think you'll find that the wonderlic and success have little correlation.
vague estimations like this have no place in real statistic analysis.
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:15 AM    (permalink
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I think this all depends on what kind of system the QB is in. Is it a system predicated on the WR progression or based on coverage progression? Some systems have it where you find which WR/TE or skill player that is the most open and you throw it do them, while others are based on reading coverages and defenders. So you're basically reading defenders and then making your decisions based on that. Factor in concept of plays as well, and I am guessing these numbers would reflect to some coaches and GMs the ability to digest all the information of being a QB, and maybe indicates something to do with the system they're in. I am not saying that's 100% right, but maybe these numbers have more meaning than we think.
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