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Old 04-30-2008, 01:24 PM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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That shouldn't have anything to do with it. Just because they haven't found a QB yet doesn't mean Rodgers or Brohm won't be good. Neither of our guys will be Favre, but they shouldn't have to be. Everyone was complaining about Favre during our poor seasons, then we got good and he got all the credit. We have a talented young team and if Rodgers can step in and be smart, I don't see us having much of a drop off.
I agree it doesn't mean that Rodgers and Brohm won't defintiely be good because we've struggled. It means its tough to find a good QB and Rodgers/Brohm may or may not be the answer. If its tough to find a QB, there is a chance that they both of them might not be the answer despite their "potential". If Rodgers and Brohm are the answer then good for the Packers. But right now we don't know.

A 1st year starter and 17 year HOF vet there will be a drop off.

1) quickness of decison making. Favre always made quick decisions. The West Coast helps this but in the West Coast you have to make the right decision. If you make the wrong decision on short slant or wheel route, it very well could be a pick 6 going the other way. Much like Peyton Manning in Indy. Tony Ugoh is not some all world tackle. Mannings/Favres quick/majority of the time correct decisions is a very big thing in the NFL. There will be a drop off there in terms both the correctness of the decisions and the speed. The speed of the decison has a lot to do with sacks. Rodgers in his limited action was sacked a couple of times. I'm not going to extrapolate that out because it was limited action, but Rodgers will have an effect on both Clifton/Tauscher.
2) arm strength. Nobody has the arm of Favre, not even close. There will be completions that Rodgers just can't flat out make that could/should be completed.
3) gunslinger. Good and bad thing here. Favre made some bad decisions at times but that doesn't mean Rodgers will make good ones. He may make bad decisons though. I think the offense will be a little more vanilla which is a big thing for opposing defenses to defend. They don't have to worry about Favre making the big play that they didn't expect. Many times those big plays on improvised throws by Favre won ballgames. Rodgers at this point has to prove he can make those throws. Probaby won't get the go ahead from McCarthy to even attempt those throws. It may save on interceptions but it will decrease big game changing completions.
4) leadership/the dreaded I word. Favre just flat out found ways to win. It didn't matter, he would make the crucial play on 3rd down or lead the game winning drive late. We'll see how Rodgers is in crucial situations. You don't know until they are in them. He did well in the Dallas game but there is nothing to lose at that point down by so many. And one time does not equate to many times. And not to discredit Rodgers, but I've seen Jon Kitna torch that Dallas secondary the last 2 times we played them and Kitna is merely average.
5) fear of Favre. Nobody fears Aaron Rodgers right now. Teams will have no problem putting 8 in the box if Grant is having a good start to a game. When he did it last year, you couldn't put 8 in the box because everyone knew that Favre would just burn you. Rodgers you can until he proves otherwise on several occasions that he can beat you himself.
6) chemistry with receivers. Favre has a chemistry with Driver and Jennings. Rodgers will have to create that same chemistry and Driver/Jennings will have to adjust.
7) iron man. Rodgers injuries were fluke injuries. Dont' want him to get hurt at all, but the guy isn't as tough as Favre. A broken thumb should sideline Rodgers until he proves otherwise. Luckily you have Brohm, but again he's a rookie. His learning curve is much bigger than Rodgers at this point.

Rodgers may prove us all wrong. He has a good coach and good team built around him but QB play is so crucial for success of ateam. Rodgers will have a big effect on the Packers offense. Some good, some bad. He should get better overtime but this year it may not be enough to win the division. The Packers have been fairly healthy these last 2 years so hopefully that continues too.
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Old 04-30-2008, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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Just since we are on the subject ... You know what the chances are of a QB being a probowler?

Based solely on every QB drafted from 1989 - 2006

If you are drafted in the first round you have a 33.8% chance of being a Pro Bowl QB (some are still in the league but yeah) .

When you are drafted in the second round you have a 23.5% chance on being a pro bowler at some point in your career.

When drafted in the 3-5th round you have 0% chance to be in a Pro Bowl (Did David Gerrard make it? if so then 1 in the 4th round)

When drafted in the 6th round you have an 8% chance of being a pro bowler (note that two of these pro bowlers were taken in the same year.)
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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That's the nature of the beast whenever a team wins (with exception of teams with prolific D's like Baltimore and ... Baltimore) The QB always gets the credit and the blame (except for in Detroit where Millen and the O-Line takes the blame) When the Colts kept losing in the playoffs who was to blame? Peyton. "Oh Peyton can't win in the Playoffs". Really I can't think of a team where the QB doesn't get the Credit and at least part of the blame.
Ok, but when there defense WON them that Superbowl Manning still got the credit for the wins.... Its just the media and outsiders giving the QB the blame and credit because they don't truly want to care who was at fault or who truly was to give credit to for the wins.

Our offense won these games was because of 3 simple reasons.

1. Ryan Grant had a great second half season.
2. Brett Favre played WITHIN the system.
3. Our WR led the league with YAC.

Our system is built for Rodgers, we don't expect him to make the Favre throws, better yet MM doesn't want him making them. He wants him to get the ball into the WRs hands and let them get the yards.
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Old 05-01-2008, 04:33 AM    (permalink
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ur kiddin me? Grossman won the colts that superbowl...

and u seriously wanna tell me that Brett Favre is a system guy? GTFO
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Old 05-01-2008, 08:51 AM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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Ok, but when there defense WON them that Superbowl Manning still got the credit for the wins.... Its just the media and outsiders giving the QB the blame and credit because they don't truly want to care who was at fault or who truly was to give credit to for the wins.

Because that is how important the QB is so they are most tied in with credit/blame. Eli Manning played pretty well throughout the playoffs and made some big plays in the Super Bowl. The team as a whole beat the Patriots, not just the D-line. The Giants D-line was a big factor but Eli made some big plays.

Our offense won these games was because of 3 simple reasons.

1. Ryan Grant had a great second half season.
Again the fear of Favre will play a factor in Ryan Grant. 8 in the box is much tougher to run. Plus defenses expecting him instead of being suprised. Plus Grant has to prove he can carry the load the entire season. He had a great second half but now he has to prove he can do it consistently without Favre, hope the line stays healthy and continues to improve.
2. Brett Favre played WITHIN the system.
Brett Favre usually makes good decisions, but he's not a system QB. He's had 17 years of reading defenses at a high level on Sunday. Can Rodgers make the same decisions? System QBs can still make bad decisions
3. Our WR led the league with YAC.
This will help Rodgers. But quick decisions by Favre before the defense reacts, Favre knowing where to put the ball and how to lead a receiver will be a factor. Can Rodgers do the same?

Our system is built for Rodgers, we don't expect him to make the Favre throws, better yet MM doesn't want him making them. He wants him to get the ball into the WRs hands and let them get the yards.
Not making the Favre throws is a good and bad thing. Sometimes it wins you games(Denver game) sometimes it costs you games if he is throwing a ton of ints. But more times than not, the "Favre' throws were a good thing resulting in a big completion or td. McCarthy won't allow Rodgers to make those throws which might save on ints but will limit explosive plays. Defenses would rather play against a vanilla offense like that than worry about a HOF take a calculated risk for a big gain
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Old 05-03-2008, 02:29 AM    (permalink
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Speaking as a packer fan, I want to thank the non-packer fans (or just fans of other teams) for pointing out the many positive ways Favre has effected the team year after year bringing a miraculous 15 winning seasons of sixteen played. It seems that way to many of my fellow packer backers have been disgustingly eager to dissmiss these not so unimportant facts and have dwelled far to much on his imperfections (such as his his interception in the championship game last year (as though they would have ever gotten there without him). Over the last few years there have been an amazing amount of people in wisconsin, fans from elsewhere or radio shock jocks screaming for his retirement. It has been unsettling to say the least to witness the foolishness and down right stupidity of such large numbers of people.
Kind of a shame that it takes outsiders to point out what Greenbay has had leading there team. Not that most fans didnt realise this, but its kinda shocking seeing things like "only losing Favre" beeing written. I think Favre was worth 3-5 extra wins each year over an average QB. This, to me means Rodgers is going to have to be pretty damn good if the packers are going to take the division. I think he has a chance, but so does every QB starting there first season.

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Old 05-03-2008, 07:21 AM    (permalink
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I think Favre was worth 3-5 extra wins each year over an average QB. This, to me means Rodgers is going to have to be pretty damn good if the packers are going to take the division. I think he has a chance, but so does every QB starting there first season.
I was going to argue with 3-5 wins over an average QB but I guess the key word is "average." He definitely was worth 3-5 wins over an average QB.

HOWEVER. He did throw games away, at LEAST 1-2 each year and maybe more. Now that can be said about any QB but his throwaways tended to be especially spectacular.

Rodgers should be better than average. I'm expecting a 10-11 win season. If we still had Favre I'd be betting on a 13-14 win season, though.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Again the fear of Favre will play a factor in Ryan Grant. 8 in the box is much tougher to run. Plus defenses expecting him instead of being suprised. Plus Grant has to prove he can carry the load the entire season. He had a great second half but now he has to prove he can do it consistently without Favre, hope the line stays healthy and continues to improve.
Id love to see a team but 8 in the box against a 3 WR set, which is probably what we are gonna do most of the time conisdering the talent at WR
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Id love to see a team but 8 in the box against a 3 WR set, which is probably what we are gonna do most of the time conisdering the talent at WR
Then you have to consider how injury prone your QB is. I think you'll need more guys in blocking.
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Old 05-03-2008, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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Id love to see a team but 8 in the box against a 3 WR set, which is probably what we are gonna do most of the time conisdering the talent at WR

Obviously then you play nickel defense. But if you have a 3 WR set, you are most likely going to pass, meaning that Rodgers will have to make a good decision. Driver is a good receiver and Jennings had a terrific year last year and has talent no question about that, but again thats with Favre. We'll see the true talent of these receivers this year. I'm not saying they will become bad, but they will have to adjust to a new QB and will have to step up their game even more. If their timing is off a little, a Favre bullet throw isn't going to save them. Also 3 WR set means one less good blocker(FB or TE) will be on the field, meaning it will be tougher for Grant to run.

I'm not saying your team will be terrible. I think they still will COMPETE for the North title. But I wouldn't consider them the favorites, sure thing slam dunk as I would if Favre would have returned this year. QB play is so important. Don't take a HOF QB for granted.
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Old 05-03-2008, 09:55 PM    (permalink
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Well look at guys like Deion Branch who shined in New England and hasn't done **** since he went to Seattle.

I think both Driver and Jennings are good WR's, but guys like James Jones I have questions about.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:12 PM    (permalink
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Well look at guys like Deion Branch who shined in New England and hasn't done **** since he went to Seattle.

I think both Driver and Jennings are good WR's, but guys like James Jones I have questions about.
What the hell does Deion Branch have to do with anything?
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:31 PM    (permalink
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I'm not saying your team will be terrible. I think they still will COMPETE for the North title. But I wouldn't consider them the favorites, sure thing slam dunk as I would if Favre would have returned this year. QB play is so important. Don't take a HOF QB for granted.
Why shouldnt we be the faves? Or atleast slightly above the next team.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:31 PM    (permalink
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What the hell does Deion Branch have to do with anything?
Because he was good with a HOF QB, but then crappy with a good QB. But he was also injury prone
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:37 PM    (permalink
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Because he was good with a HOF QB, but then crappy with a good QB. But he was also injury prone
I still don't think that's a valid point. Even if he thinks it is Branch was a terrible example. Branch was mediocre with New England and is mediocre in Seattle. Nothing changed, in fact he actually has been a bit better in Seattle
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Why shouldnt we be the faves? Or atleast slightly above the next team.
because.
just because you win out last year doesn't mean you should be the favorite.

you got turnover. aging. all sorts of stuff.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:53 PM    (permalink
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we lost 2 players. Yes, Favre was a big loss, but we have been grooming his backup for THREE YEARS. ANd we did lose Corey Williams, but we drafted a DT in the first last year and we have a whole stable of good lineman, and we got a 2nd round pick out of the deal.

And how are we aging, even with Favre on the team we were the youngest team in the NFL. And we have replacements for Driver, Tauscher, Clifton, Harris and Woodson.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:58 PM    (permalink
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because.
just because you win out last year doesn't mean you should be the favorite.

you got turnover. aging. all sorts of stuff.
Our team is aging, what? we are the youngest team in the NFL, we are built for the future, and with the talent added for depth, I wouldn't worry about injuries as much.
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:01 PM    (permalink
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If the division is mediocre, I do think the Lions have a shot. The run game should be better by virtue of playcalling and health. The OL could be better (although Woody did finish strong at RT). They have the most stable QB situation (which, admittedly, isn't saying much) and still have passing weapons. They have added defensive pieces that should fit.

That said, I don't see a team that can be better than average. If it requires a top season to pull out the division, then I wouldn't bet on the Lions. I just don't see a dominant DL to key that defense up to take them to the next level, and teams should be able to pressure Kitna.
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:04 PM    (permalink
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If the division is mediocre, I do think the Lions have a shot. The run game should be better by virtue of playcalling and health. The OL could be better (although Woody did finish strong at RT). They have the most stable QB situation (which, admittedly, isn't saying much) and still have passing weapons. They have added defensive pieces that should fit.

That said, I don't see a team that can be better than average. If it requires a top season to pull out the division, then I wouldn't bet on the Lions. I just don't see a dominant DL to key that defense up to take them to the next level, and teams should be able to pressure Kitna.
They have some talent in the secondary, but lost a huge (but lazy) piece to their Dline. Im certainly not betting on them.
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:21 PM    (permalink
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They have some talent in the secondary, but lost a huge (but lazy) piece to their Dline. Im certainly not betting on them.
overoptimism.

still. tons of unproven players. harris and woodson are getting old. donald driver is getting old. sure you have replacements.

but. in fantasy baseball terms. the VORP for (Driver, Tauscher, Clifton, Harris and Woodson) is WAY higher at their 2007 level than any player you could put in their position.
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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I still don't think that's a valid point. Even if he thinks it is Branch was a terrible example. Branch was mediocre with New England and is mediocre in Seattle. Nothing changed, in fact he actually has been a bit better in Seattle
Mediocre with New England? He was one of Tom Brady's top targets, he won Super Bowl MVP, and he up some some pretty good numbers (apart from one season) with New England.

And your opinion that he's done better with Seattle is a little off base considering he had his best years in New England, but yeah don't let stats get in the way of your argument.

http://www.nfl.com/players/deionbran...s?id=BRA490549

And why are you getting so damn defensive about it? A QB change for a WR can be a negative thing as well.

Btw, if you don't think you'll be missing Favre next year you're kidding yourselves. Rodgers may have a good year but he's not the leader or the catalyst Brett was for your team.
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Despite looking better against an underachieving Eagles team, I still think the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I smell a blowout victory by the Lions this week and a division sweep.
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Old 05-03-2008, 11:56 PM    (permalink
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Mediocre with New England? He was one of Tom Brady's top targets, he won Super Bowl MVP, and he up some some pretty good numbers (apart from one season) with New England.

And your opinion that he's done better with Seattle is a little off base considering he had his best years in New England, but yeah don't let stats get in the way of your argument.

http://www.nfl.com/players/deionbran...s?id=BRA490549

And why are you getting so damn defensive about it? A QB change for a WR can be a negative thing as well.

Btw, if you don't think you'll be missing Favre next year you're kidding yourselves. Rodgers may have a good year but he's not the leader or the catalyst Brett was for your team.
Yes mediocre with New England. He was only their #1 because they didn't have anyone good until recently. Superbowl MVP doesn't mean much, Dexter Jackson and Desmond Howard were superbowl MVPs. His numbers in New England weren't that great. He had one year that he almost reached 1000 yards one that he had 800 yards. The other two he didn't even reach 500. His TDs were 2, 3, 4, and 5. That is very mediocre. "but yeah don't let stats get in the way of your argument." No, thank you, they actually greatly help my argument.

And he has been just as good as he was in New England. I think he's been even better, but I can see the disagreement there. However you couldn't be more off from your original statement of "Deion Branch who shined in New England and hasn't done **** since he went to Seattle."

When have I ever said that a QB change can't be a negative thing? And I never said I don't think we'll be missing Favre.

And finally fix your damn sig.
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Old 05-04-2008, 12:04 AM    (permalink
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it's not that you don't think it's a negative thing, you just think it's going to be peachy keen without favre.

well. get this. it's not. you can't replace what favre had with driver. not with rodgers. if anything it will be a negative effect by the qb change in the production of wide recievers. if you can't see that, then, well. shucks.

the VORP of favre is still huge... and the effect on his ability to produce points (yes. produce. he manufactured points over the last decade), is not something to tread lightly. aaron rodgers isn't capable of carrying a team. especially without an identity on offense. donald driver? nope. ryan grant? he's good, but not great. they're not going to be able to do things on offense that made the packers offense the packers offense. i expect more running. less throwing. less pressure throwing. run to set the pass, not pass to set the run. don't even mention 5 wide. conventionality will be the only way for success, and mediocraty is prevelant. it's okay. because, barring injuries, the pack has a defense that can win the division.
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Old 05-04-2008, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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it's not that you don't think it's a negative thing, you just think it's going to be peachy keen without favre.

well. get this. it's not. you can't replace what favre had with driver. not with rodgers. if anything it will be a negative effect by the qb change in the production of wide recievers. if you can't see that, then, well. shucks.

the VORP of favre is still huge... and the effect on his ability to produce points (yes. produce. he manufactured points over the last decade), is not something to tread lightly. aaron rodgers isn't capable of carrying a team. especially without an identity on offense. donald driver? nope. ryan grant? he's good, but not great. they're not going to be able to do things on offense that made the packers offense the packers offense. i expect more running. less throwing. less pressure throwing. run to set the pass, not pass to set the run. don't even mention 5 wide. conventionality will be the only way for success, and mediocraty is prevelant. it's okay. because, barring injuries, the pack has a defense that can win the division.
I haven't even said anything in this thread about the effect not having Favre would have, or how our offense would be fine, or even "Who wins the north in 2008?" for that matter.

Of course if anything it will have a negative effect. I don't think you'll find anyone who'd say otherwise.

What exactly do you mean by without an identity on offense? I'm not going to respond to that until I know what you're trying to say.

As for this idea you have for dumbing down the offense, Rodgers has been in the system for 3 freaking years already. There should be know reason to greatly alter the play calling. Yes there are things that only Favre could do, but the majority will still be in play. "don't even mention 5 wide" We used it in the Dallas game, I think it's safe to say we'll use it next year especially with drafting another WR.
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