Join Date: Jan 2005
As close to final, although hey, who knows if i have time - 79 deep
A bit different from the irc version I put out. The trade numbers are off, but I'm too lazy to go through (as I incorporated the Pats trade in this writeup, but was using a sheet without the Pats on it). A couple things I'm not big on.
5 1st round trade: New England and New Orleans, Carolina and Baltimore, Houston and Dallas, Buffalo and Seattle, Miami and Dallas
3 2nd round trades: Philly and Denver, Dallas and Miami, St. Louis and Miami
Veteran trades projected. Haven't worked out the question marks:
Jeremy Shockey for the 40th and ? - Happens in draft, I think, after New Orleans sees if they can move up in the first.
Lito Sheppard for the 52nd - Happens in draft, after the Bucs first. If they go CB in the first, this doesn't happen. If not, let's be honest, Sheppard is a better bet than a rookie CB. Unless they get in on Jason Taylor ...
Jason Taylor for the 58th and ? - It'll be more than the 58th alone. Probably another pick later. Perhaps a future. I think it happens once they reach the early 2nd. It could happen earlier.
1. Miami Dolphins OT Jake Long, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams DE Chris Long, Virginia
This one's coming down to the wire. I've advocated for the fact that Glenn Dorsey makes a lot of sense. He does. There are valid reasons (BPA, interior pass rush, protect LB's, and so forth). At the end of the day, this pick, I think, will be Chris Long. Worries about Glenn Dorsey on turf long run may play a factor here. This is Devaney's pick. Coaching staff may want Dorsey, but this is Devaney's chance to make his mark.
3. Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Boston College
I'm biting. I am. There were rumors earlier this week that Matt Ryan was on top of their board. Mayock and Schefter are both reporting it late. Say what you want about them, but they usually get it right late. Let's check in tomorrow morning.
4. Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
So, Glenn Dorsey found his way here. It certainly puts a crimp in their plans in that it forces them to think about a possibility they, well, never thought about. They'll look trade, but I don't think they want to fall that far, so unless the Pats come up (not impossible, I buy the Pats liking Dorsey) or the Jets wanting to grab someone (which I don't buy), I think they pull the trigger on McFadden here.
5. Kansas City Chiefs DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU
This one's easy. Unless the Saints throw the kitchen sink at them, they'll pluck Dorsey here to be the dominant interior player and laugh to the bank that they picked up the top defensive talent, arguably the only elite talent, in this draft because the Rams were fearful of missing. Btw, they will ponder Matt Ryan here if he falls.
6. New York Jets OLB Vernon Gholston, the Ohio State
New York will ponder deals. But unless they get offered a lot, I think they snap up Vernon Gholston here.
7. New Orleans Saints f/ New England Patriots DT Sedrick Ellis, USC
I buy the Pats interest in Dorsey. I don't buy their interest in Ellis as much. Doesn't mean they won't take him, but I think they will definitely look deal. And at the end of the day, I think the New Orleans Saints will get it don. Theyll find a way to get it done. Somehow. And theyll add Shockey as icing on top, perhaps.
New Orleans gets the 7th
New England gets the 10th and 78th
Cincy will be in on it, but Cincy might not be as willing to give up a 3rd rounder this year.
8. Carolina Panthers f/ Baltimore Ravens DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
Ravens want out in this situation. They aren't desperate for OT help, and that's BPA. CB is a tiny reach. I think Carolina obliges by jumping up to nab Derrick Harvey. I don't love this pick. I don't. You've got Peppers, signed Brayton, have Johnson and McClover. That said, they could up the pass rush and the DT's are off. Also, Brayton is on a 2 year deal, and they can kick Brayton inside on occasion in passing situations.
Carolina gets the 8th overall
Baltimore gets the 13th and 67th overall
9. Cincinnati Bengals RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Carolina nabs Harvey, and thus what now? LB is a thought. Same with RB. I know OT has been murmured, but from what I understand, they'd prefer to wait till the 2nd. Rivers or RB? With Thurman back, with Dhani Jones, with Rashad Jeanty and Ahmad Brooks, I think they wait a round on LB. Big RB's aren't rare. Big RB's with long speed are. They nab Rashard Mendenhall here.
10. New England Patriots f/ New Orleans Saints LB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee
So, what do the Pats do here? Harvey's gone, and I don't see Groves. ILB is a thought, with Rivers or Mayo. CB is a thought. Don't sleep on a sleeper, say, Phillip Merling. OL could be a thought. At the end of the day, I think they wait on CB. Could be wrong, but I think they wait. So, who? Another deal isn't impossible, but as of now, the guess is they pull the trigger on Jerod Mayo here who is a better fit at ILB than Keith Rivers as he carries the weight more naturally.
11. Buffalo Bills - CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy
I had a trade all mocked out with Philadelphia, but late word suggests that the Bills may indeed exercise the pick and that Philly might not be as gung ho to deal up. KC is a thought to deal up, but there's some talk that Buffalo was hard selling Devin Thomas. We'll find out soon enough. I think they surprise everyone and take Leodis McKelvin, who hasn't been linked with them much. Leodis is the top corner in the draft, and he can be a solid fit in the defensive scheme there.
12. Denver Broncos OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt
This one's befuddling me. I don't see Rivers here, that I can get out of the way. It's either OL or RB, and I'm not sure. I go back and forth on this one since, well, neither one is one they traditionally draft early. People forget how in love with Maroney they were, and how Stewart is coming from a similar run scheme in college and that they may value Stewart more. Then again, they need OT help and can find a RB in the 2nd if they want. Tough one ... the nod is Chris Williams over Albert or Clady, although I do this hesitantly.
13. Baltimore Ravens f/ Carolina Panthers QB Chad Henne, Michigan
Where to now? There's been rumors for a month now that several teams loved Chad Henne in the mid-first. I don't know if Baltimore does, but I could buy it. They could look deal again, but I think they bite the bullet, and here's surprise number 2 (Mayo at 10 being surprise 1, although that's not a big surprise.)
14. Chicago Bears OT Ryan Clady, Boise State
I may be completely off here, but I have some feelings that Albert is on our shortlist with the idea that he can play guard now and be groomed for LT later, while the team finds a RT later as well. I'm worried about QB rumors for us. That said, the nod goes to Ryan Clady as someone to step in right away.
15. Detroit Lions LB Keith Rivers, USC
They are rumored to like him and this feels like a Millen value pick. Rivers could be a plus-Quarles type Mike backer for the scheme (and Quarles was very good if people forget).
16. Arizona Cardinals RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Here's the thing. They can find a CB in the 2nd that is close in value. I think they recognize that. As noted, big RB's with long speed are hard to find. He fits what Whisenhunt and Grimm would want.
17. Kansas City Chiefs f/ Minnesota Vikings OT Branden Albert, Virginia
He could be long gone, and this pick might be Jeff Otah (say Albert going at 12). That said, he's here, and while they may want more picks, he is way too good to pass up here.
18. Dallas Cowboys f/ Houston Texans CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida
I don't think Houston is married to anything, and I really get the feeling that Dallas will move up. The reasoning is poor (somehow, I have talked myself into believing that the Fasano/Ayodele trade, which I think was terrible, was to give them an extra pick to fill some other needs). CB is a need, though, and talk is Mike Jenkins is their guy. I could see this being DRC, but I lean Mike Jenkins for now. Hmm, now Dallas' extra 4th makes some sense. They only lose a handful of spots. Could things be this logical?
Dallas gets the 18th overall
Houston gets the 22nd and 92nd overall
19. Philadelphia Eagles - OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh
He could be long gone. That said, they have a year to develop him, and plenty of teams believe he could be a LT as he has the feet. DRC will tempt, but I think they wait.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State
They seem a tough team to figure out in regards to their general plans. But in the first, I think it's CB or WR, and with Jenkins off and Thomas here, I think they take the gamble and hope he's their guy that they've been looking for. Something tells me this might be too easy (that is, too obvious to be true) so watch some backup options such as a speed WR like Donnie Avery, a DE like Phillip Merling or Quentin Groves, and perhaps a RB.
21. Washington Redskins DE Phillip Merling, Clemson
This is a tougher decision than they realized. DRC has fallen, and he will definitely pique their interest. They may offer this pick up, but who's bolting hard this high, particularly wiht Baltimore having nabbed a QB. Miami? I don't see them going this high. Any other possibilities? In the end, I make a pick. DRC tempts, but the nod goes to Merling, who by all accounts, made a positive enough impression and will be utilized as a base end/interior pass rusher.
22. Houston Texans f/ Dallas Cowboys CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
They mightve taken him at 18. Btw, don't assume this is a lock. Watch Cherilus here.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers OLB Quentin Groves, Auburn
This one's tough. There's Cherilus. There's a crapload of money for Max Starks. There's WR. A downfield target like Limas Sweed? There's DL. Balmer? There's LB, although ILB is gone, so a guy like Groves. There's also secondary, where a Brandon Flowers just smells like a Tomlin type player. I don't buy Balmer here. Just don't see a fit with Tomlin for some reaosn. I am tempted with Sweed, but I lean against. Steelers fan Quentin Groves or Gosder Cherilus. A lot of people are suggesting they are willing to wait on OT for a round.
24. Tennessee Titans RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
LB isn't a thought, and DB can wait I think. DE is off, unless they love Jackson, which I don't see. Balmer is the defensive nod. Offensively, a WR like Sweed or a RB like Jones. Something seems off about Balmer here, although I can't put my hands around it. I'm leaning for the mild surprise of a home run RB and Felix Jones here. A 4.4 time is fine, and he plays fast.
25. Buffalo Bills f/ Seattle Seahawks WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
Seattle wants out. I don't think Miami moves up this far. I'm sure most you are scratching your head at Buffalo. Buffalo went CB earlier, leaving WR and TE to be addressed. They've done a lot of background on Kelly, and the chance is good he won't fall to their 2nd rounder. It'll be interesting to watch if Levy leaving changed anything, because in recent years, they targeted guys they wanted and made their moves.
Buffalo gets the 25th
Seattle gets the 41st and 72nd
Not a move that's likely to reverberate well with Bills fans. And I may be off my rockers, and sometimes, people you talk to are wrong. Then again, WR is their only other big need, and they've targeted Kelly for awhile. They can pick up a solid TE in the 4th.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars DT Kentwan Balmer, UNC
Would they deal down? Perhaps, but I'm leaning towards Balmer here. Don't discount Cherilus here.
27. San Diego Chargers - OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College
They will ponder moving down, but in the end, Cherilus gets too tempting, and they look for other ways to get back in the game.
28. Miami Dolphins f/ Dallas Cowboys QB Joe Flacco, Delaware
The Dolphins and Cowboys are like butt buddies now. Miami could wait around, but they need a QB. And heck, Dallas gave them a great deal on Fasano and Ayodele. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. J/K. I think Dallas will want out of this pick, with Felix Jones gone, to save costs, and well, they aren't dropping too far.
Miami gets the 28th
Dallas gets the 32nd and a 2009 4th rounder
29. San Francisco 49ers f/ Indianapolis Colts WR Desean Jackson, California
I don't think they have the assets to move up for Gosder Cherilus. So, what's the pick? They'll be tempted by some OL options here. It's just too high, I think. What else? DL? ILB? OLB? They still don't have a playmaking WR. This isn't plan A (OL) or plan B (DL) but it is a need and Jackson fits Martz.
30. Green Bay Packers CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech
They may want out, but I think it'll be tough at this point. At the end of the day, you don't draft choir boys. I think Ted Thompson does know that. Will Talib scare him off enough? I just have a hard time pulling the trigger on that, as there's a lot of mumblings, and there's a perfectly good corner value and fit in Brandon Flowers.
31. New England Patriots forfeited
32. New York Giants S Tyrell Johnson, Arkansas State
The projected Shockey trade changes the game. They could be aggressive. That said, I'm still leaning safety.
33. Dallas Cowboys f/ Miami Dolphins - RB Jamaal Charles, Texas
Two Texas guys to ponder, Charles or Sweed? I lean Charles for now.
34. St. Louis Rams - WR James Hardy, Indiana
Playmaking WR or OL? This is a team in win now mode. Look for the WR here. Who? Watch LF and Donnie Avery. He fits for Saunders. That said, this goes Hardy. He has good feet, getting in and out real well, which fits for Saunders, and he has nice size, which Linehan likes. Add in he's solid value.
35. Atlanta Falcons f/ Oakland Raiders - CB Patrick Lee, Auburn
OT value is iffy, so they look CB. I'm cribbing this off LZ.
36. Kansas City Chiefs - QB Brian Brohm, Louisville
Their fans won't like it, at least, some have indicated that already. But I think they bring in a challenger, and with so many picks, they may go early on one.
37. New York Jets - WR Limas Sweed, Texas
Cason tempts, but they could use another offensive weapon.
38. Atlanta Falcons - LB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma
OL value is iffy, so they take a defensive anchor.
39. Baltimore Ravens - CB Aqib Talib, Kansas
If he passes their background, I think they pull the trigger.
40. San Francisco 49ers - OL Chilo Rachal, USC
After adding WR, OL and DL could get looks, along with perhaps LB. I think McCloughan looks on the lines. He surprises a bit with Rachal as an interior player.
41. New York Giants f/ New Orleans Saints - CB Antoine Cason, Arizona
The CB a lot of their fans want.
42. Seattle Seahawks f/ Buffalo Bills - TE Dustin Keller, Purdue
They need a TE weapon, and he falls here into their lap.
43. Philadelphia Eagles f/ Denver Broncos - S Kenny Phillips, the U
The falling Kenny Phillips may be too tempting, and I think Shanny would listen.
Philadelphia gets the 43rd
Denver gets the 49th and 115th
44. Carolina Panthers - OT Duane Brown, Virginia Tech
I think they'll take an OT fairly early, and if they pass in the first, they could look here. Edges Baker because of upside.
45. Chicago Bears - RB Matt Forte, Tulane
They will look to address that run game. OL could get a look but there are two thirds. No QB value, and WR can wait. They take the bigger Forte.
46. Detroit Lions - DE Lawrence Jackson, USC
Detroit added a LB earlier. OL, RB, DE, DT could get looks. What is it? I think they hope Lawrence Jackson gets better as he ages.
47. Cincinnati Bengals - LB Dan Connor, Penn State
After adding a RB, they find themselves staring at Dan Connor. Not a huge need, but OL value is debatable, WR value will last, and DL value is iffy unless they love Calais. I think they go Connor.
48. Minnesota Vikings - TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M
They could use a TE here, and someone like Martellus Bennett could intrigue.
49. Atlanta Falcons - OT Anthony Collins, Kansas
Thought a trade, but they need OL help, and Collins is a tempting figure provided his background checks out.
50. Denver f/ Philadelphia Eagles - RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina
They added an OT earlier. WR? DT? RB? LB? I'm leaning RB or WR on value here. Who? Bennett tempts, but I think Chris Johnson gets the nod as the home run hitter here.
51. Arizona Cardinals - CB Tracy Porter, Indiana
After picking up a RB earlier, CB is prioritized. The raw Justin King is value here and has all the tools in the world. That said, Tracy Porter is more ready to step in.
52. Washington Redskins - WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State
I pondered moving them up for Jordy, but stay put, and they nab their two targets here. OL and DB can wait.
53. Philadelphia Eagles f/ Tampa Bay (Lito deal) - WR Donnie Avery, Houston
They've added a S and OL. WR and CB come to mind. Lean goes WR for now, as they could use some big play ability. and Avery says big play.
54. Pittsburgh Steelers - OL Sam Baker, USC
They could use an OL guy to groom.
55. Tennessee Titans - DE Calais Campbell, the U
I had several trades worked out for teams to move up to grab Calais. Just didn't happen, and the Titans jump.
56. Seattle Seahawks - DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame
They could still use some OL talent. RB fit is, eh. WR? Can be added later. S can wait. Harrison is a good talent at DT, but I think Ruskell passes due to character. So they grab Trevor Laws here. I think Laws should go higher.
57. Green Bay Packers - S Dajuan Morgan, NC State
After nabbing a CB earlier, they nab a safety here.
58. Miami Dolphins - OLB Cliff Avril, Purdue
QB and OL so far. they need some defensive help, and it starts with an edge guy. Harrison's character moves me away from that.
59. Dallas f/ Miami via Jax (Jason Taylor deal) - WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt
And the Dallas/Miami swap meet continues again. I think Miami looks to get out, and I think Jerry may ponder a move up. Jerry wants a WR having addressed his other needs and could get worried about the few spots in between. Earl can play in the slot early on.
Dallas gets the 59th
Miami gets the 62nd and 163rd
60. Indianapolis Colts - WR Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech
I think they could use another WR, and the nod goes to Royal. Rice was a tempting thought.
61. Green Bay Packers - TE Fred Davis, USC
They could use another offensive weapon to attack defenses.
62. [i]St. Louis f/ Dallas Cowboys via Miami - OL Oniel Cousins, UTEP[i]
I think Parcells plays the draft as well as anyone. He's moved up, down, left, and right so far. The Patriots could go OLB, CB, DL, TE, WR, and OL and I think Parcells talks someone up. Keep in mind that this is late day 1. I lean St. Louis because they could use another OL guy, particularly someone to groom, and the talent thins out soon after.
St. Louis gets the 62nd
Miami gets the 65th and 168th
63. New England Patriots - CB Chevis Jackson, LSU
They take their guys, and Chevis Jackson fits and is a guy that has people excited.
64. New York Giants - TE John Carlson, Notre Dame
CB and S so far. They deal Shockey. Sure, Boss is solid, but a Carlson wouldn't hurt. WR could be a thought.
65. Miami Dolphins - CB Justin King, Penn State
LT, QB, and OLB so far. They added a TE from Dallas trade, along with an ILB, and they've signed LB's. I'm thinking DL or CB here, with WR as a darkhorse. Lean goes to the raw talent of Justin King.
66. Denver f/ Miami Dolphins - DT Marcus Harrison, Arkansas
Okay, maybe I'm giving a tad too much credit to Parcells. That said, I could see Denver, armed with 3 4th's now, bolting up for someone they want. I'd guess WR, DL, or LB here. I'm guessing another DT for the rotation, sort of like last year's overloaded on DE's. They've taken character gambles before.
Denver gets the 66th
Miami gets the 108th, 115th, and a 2009 3rd
67. Kansas City Chiefs - DE Jason Jones, Eastern Michigan
This is the one thing I hate about my mock. Jones dropping this far? I think he's gone already. If he's here, I think they grab him. Jones, Dorsey, Albert, Brohm. Nice. Kiper has Jones in the first. Not sure he goes that high, but should be gone.
68. Baltimore Ravens f/ Carolina Panthers - OT Carl Nicks, Nebraska
From the first round deal. Baltimore's added a CB and a QB. Do they gamble on OL? Perhaps.
69. Atlanta Falcons - DT Pat Sims, Auburn
QB (Ryan), Lee (CB), Lofton (LB) and Collins (OT) so far. TE, more OL could get looks. I'm going DT and Pat Sims.
70. New England Patriots - DL Brian Johnston, Gardner-Webb
ILB and CB so far. OL? OLB? WR? RB? TE? DL? I'm guessing they get a DL body in there.
71. Chicago Bears - WR Early Doucet, LSU
Big back and LOT so far. G? It can probably wait. WR? QB? S? Surprise? Lean goes to WR and Early Doucet is great value, along with being solid and steady.
72. Jacksonville Jaguars - DB Tyvon Branch, UConn
Jason Taylor, Kentwan Balmer fix the DL. I could see a DB look here, someone with versatility like a Tyvon Branch.
73. Seattle f/ Buffalo - RB Ray Rice, Rutgers
DT and TE have been added. RB/OL/WR/S could get looks. Even DE can't be ruled out. I'm going with a RB to groom, as Duckett might be a one year deal. Ray Rice is a tougher runner than the guys they have, despite his size.
74. Detroit f/ Kansas City - RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida
With RB's coming off like crazy, Detroit jumps up to secure one after focusing on defense earlier.
Detroit gets the 74th
Kansas City gets the 77th and 176th
75. Carolina Panthers - RB Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
OT and DE were added so far. What now? S is a thought. DT is a possibility. RB is in the mix. I have a feeling they'll go RB fairly early.
76. San Francisco f/ Chicago - OLB Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest
Via the punishment ... They went OG and WR so far. DL? OT? LB? Some have suggested that Thompson can make this transition.
77. Kansas City f/ Detroit - CB Antwaun Molden, Eastern Kentucky
DE, DT, OL, QB so far. More OL could be a thought. WR is a thought. CB needs to be addressed.
78. Cincinnati Bengals - WR Andre Caldwell, Florida
RB and LB so far. DE? DT? S? OL? WR is a need with Chris Henry gone.
79. New England Patriots f/ New Orleans Saints - WR Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State
From above. DL, ILB, CB so far. OLB? TE? WR? RB? More elsewhere? They are fond of him, so I could see it happen.