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Old 08-12-2008, 05:57 PM    (permalink
thule
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Default Thule's Ten NFL Truths

#1) Packers need no Faver
Well I figured you couldn't have a NFL truths up at this time of the year without starting it off with the biggest thing to hit the USA since sliced bread. The Green Bay Packers are once again going to be the class of the NFC North. Lets face it...they have a ton of weapons...even adding addition of Jordy Nelson to the equation. The young RB's have had another offseason in the weight room and in the film room. Aaron Rodgers has been sitting for 3 years...if he wasn't the answer now he never was going to be. Bottom line is this team is one of the youngest in the NFL....and although they lost a HOF QB...this team shouldn't fall off with his departure. We are talking about a team that has depth...studs in key positions and has something to prove. The only weakness I see on this team is the talent in the deep secondary...I'm not sure if Collins is going to go back to the playmaker he was in his rookie year. Now I'm not stupid enough to think the packers are going to pull off another 13-3 season...but that has nothing to do with the loss of farve...and everything to do with the other teams in their division improving. I'm think 10 or 11 wins...gets them the 2nd seed in the Playoffs and a NFL North Division Championship.

2) Top 3 out of 4 is bad in 2008?
So many of us were excited on draft day. Yet when you think back to the draft you realize that the top 3 offensive picks really are going to have to exceed expectations to even be in the running for OROY this year. Jake Long is a great lineman...but this isn't the Big 10 anymore...He is going to get beat this season....and really I'm not going to put a ton of blame on him...but when you have to cover up your #1 overall pick by running the ball 30 times a game I have trouble justifying the selection. Sparano is a hell of a coach and if anyone can get the most out of Long it will be him...but I just don't think his feet were as nimble as advertised...which isn't a big deal...but against the elite rushers in the league he just isn't going to have a chance. Matt Ryan...this was a great pick for the Falcons but this is going to be like almost every other rookie qb in the league their rookie year...total abuse. Now Ryan is intelligent which will help...but nothing is going to keep him from getting beat up behind that patchy line...and just going along the progression almost all starting rookie qb's go through. I'm looking for about 60% completion percentage and about 50/50 td:int ratio his first year. Lastly Darren McFadden...as a cowboys fan I had to hear about this all year long...but I really can't get over the fact that the raiders took him. We are talking about a guy playing a position where it's been well documented you can find production later and cheaper...yet he goes top three to a team that already had 3 efficient runners. Now idk if Fargas is as dynamic as DMac...but I do know that Fargas is more productive per dollar. And crazy al really is crazy in my mind...I just don't see enough touches going around...and if I draft a RB top 3 I'm going to try to get the ball in his hands atleast 18-20 times a game...and I'm not sure if McFadden is going to see that this year or not. I loved DMac as a prospect but I absolutely hate the fit.

Beast known as the East
I'm not talking about the NFC East tho...I'm talking about the soon to be most improved division in football. The patriots are the cream of the crop in the NFL...no use telling you guys stuff you already know. But I'm extremely high on the dolphins and Bills this year. The Jets with the addition of Brett Farve only get better. Every team in that division this year has improved...and I'm looking at a big turn around for the dolphins...7-9 is a distinct possibility which is huge in a division where you play the pats twice a year. The Bills are a team I really began to follow last year...and it seemed every game they played was within 3 points either way. I'm looking for more consistency out of the QB position in Buffalo and I see no reason why they can't make a bid into the playoffs. The wild card into making this division a success is the Jets. Now I'm not one of those naive Farve fans that think that the Jets are now legit super bowl contenders...but the team is young and if the defense can take it to the next level Farve should at least be able to keep the running game easier with his presence alone on the field.

4) Brady Quinn where can he win?
I was a huge Brady Quinn fan when he came out...loved what I heard about him last offseason and then WHAM...Anderson comes in and lights it up. Anderson doesn't look like he is letting up either. Although he had a down end of the season last year...something like more INT's then TD's in his last 8 games he got his new 3 year deal in feburary...and you got to believe that the browns love his gamer mentality. The knock on Quinn I've been hearing this offseason is not being aggressive enough...choosing to check down rather than force it. Now if Anderson struggles the first five or so games in Cleveland this year I think we see Quinn get his shot...but to be honest...with that much talent on offense I find it hard to believe a QB wouldn't be able to win with that team. Although we can't overlook the loss of Big Joe at WR...as he was there 3rd down machine with his size...something that has seemingly gone unreplaced(not a word) this offseason.

5) The boys are back in town
Yes I am going ahead and predicting the first playoff victory for the cowboys in 12 years. The reason is...they are due...they have outplayed their opponents in there last two appearances and came away just short both times. They have upgraded their biggest weakness (cb) and made it a strength with the additions of Pacman/Jenkins/Scandrick. The brought in veteran leadership to a team that has really been lacking in that department on the defensive side of that ball in Zach Thomas. They picked up a better compliment for MB3 in Felix Jones...and on top of that they resigned all their targeted team FA's this offseason. We are talking about marquee guys like Flozell Adams/Terrell Owens/Terrence Newman/Marion Barber/Ken Hamlin these guys are key components...and oh yea did I mention that we also retained our offensive coordinator Jason Garrett? What about the addition in the secondary with coach Dave Campo? All and all this team has no excuse not to execute this year...and they will be the cream of the crop in the NFC 12-4.

6) Pittsburgh who?
Thats what I think about when I watch TV nowadays...no one seems to be talking about the Steelers. And this is really a crying shame. If you look at the division who do they really have? The Bengals still have a porous defense the ravens are undergoing a new coaching staff change....with either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller as their starter? The Browns are up and coming...but that defense still isn't going to keep them in ballgames against the elite teams. Bottomline is the Steelers are good...and sure people are making a deal about losing some peices on the offensive line...but they added another RB to the mix...have a healthy Willie Parker...Holmes and Ben seem to have upped their game to another level and Ward is still Ward. I'm not expecting much of a change at all this year for the Steelers offense...I mean it's not like big ben didn't get knocked around last year....through the 2nd half of the season he trailed only Tom Brady in passer rating...so I expect a little more out of the Steelers offense this year. Has the Steelers defense changed in the last 10 years? If so I haven't noticed it....Hampton is going to be ready for the opener from what I've been reading...and Troy should be ready to go as well...I'm looking for big things out of Pittsburgh and they should have the division title at the end of the season. Looking for about 11 wins for them this year.

7) OROY
I'm going to have to go with a guy who I feel can step in from day one on a team where he should get a lot of time. Jonathan Stewart over in Carolina has been tearing it up in training camp and has been reported that he is playing like a man amongst boy's over there. Stewart I believe is going to see some special teams work as well which should only help his cause for ROY. Having Steve Smith suspended for the first two games shouldn't hurt his stats either...if he stays healthy he really should have a great shot of taking home the title. Looking for over 1000 total yards and atleast 10 TD's to get him to win this award.

8) DROY
The first thought I wanted to give the nod to Aqib Talib...a kid I'm expecting huge things from as a rookie...but I'm not sold that there is going to be enough hype down in TB to give this kid the props he deserves so I'm going to go with Kenny Phillips. Phillips has been lights out in camps from reports...supposedly hitting everything in site....which is good and bad...but Phillips is in a good situation with a strong NY pass rush and should be in position to make a ton of plays for that defense this year. If he plays the way he can play I really don't see anyone taking it away from him. Look for him to get atleast 5 picks...and about 90 tackles.

9) MVP
Tony Romo. In order for dallas to get over the hump this year...it is going to take the very best of Tony Romo for 16 straight games this year. Tony Romo has only started 26 games so far in his career...and yet it is hard to find a more productive QB during those times. People say he doesn't play well in big games...but 2006 Colts game and 2007 Packers game ring a bell of when he played well in big games...where both teams were undefeated over halfway through the season. If Tony can put it together...he has all the weapons he needs this year to put together a MVP type season...factor in that this is his second year in Garretts offense...he doesn't have an excuse not to be in the running. He broke quite a few passing records in dallas last year...I look for him to improve on those numbers this year. To win the MVP he is going to have to be right around that 65% completion percentage with about 4400 yards with a td:int ration of 2:1. If he does this...should give him a qb rating of just over 100 and put him in a legit spot to win the MVP award.

10) Superbowl Champions?
I'm going to have to go with the Indianapolis Colts this year over the Saints. The Colts are just about the same team as last year...with Sanders returning..and Addai and Gonzalez getting another year under their belt...I look for Peyton to add to his status as a top QB of all time. The Saints just won't have the secondary to stop Indy's passing attack. Final Score 35-24


for boe
Off the Wall shots
1) Giants won't make the playoffs...and their losses that weren't addressed as well as other teams in the division
2) Laurence Maroney will have over 1500 yards in rushing..which is about 670 more yards than last year
3) Chester Taylor will have ypc than Adrian Peterson
4) Troy Smith won't start opening week but will by midway through the season
5) Both Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton will start a game as the Bears QB
6) Felix Jones will better and MORE productive than Darren McFadden (sorry for the number10 reference) will have more yards from scrimmage.
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:59 PM    (permalink
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*cough* Dallas homer *cough*
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:11 PM    (permalink
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*cough* Dallas homer *cough*
It's not a coincidence that they are only a +425 on the ML down in vegas right now or 6/1 on bodog to win the superbowl....in both cases 2nd best odds to win it all behind the pats. I really tried to keep homerism out of this as much as possible.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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Way to go out on a limb with some of thoses. lol

Nice read though!
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<+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
<+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
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What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Way to go out on a limb with some of thoses. lol

Nice read though!
There is a reason these are truths and not guesses :P
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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There is a reason these are truths and not guesses :P

:) :) :) :)
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<+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
<+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
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What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Added some off the wall thoughts for you BOE
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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*cough* Dallas homer *cough*
Oh please come one now, you act like he's a Bears fan and said his team was going to win the super bowl, saying Dallas is due to win a playoff game is far from a homer statement, neither is Romo for MVP as I've seen it in countless magazines, I wish people around here would stop acting like you can't say anything positive about your own team or your a homer





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7) OROY
I'm going to have to go with a guy who I feel can step in from day one on a team where he should get a lot of time. Jonathan Stewart over in Carolina has been tearing it up in training camp and has been reported that he is playing like a man amongst boy's over there. Stewart I believe is going to see some special teams work as well which should only help his cause for ROY. Having Steve Smith suspended for the first two games shouldn't hurt his stats either...if he stays healthy he really should have a great shot of taking home the title. Looking for over 1000 total yards and atleast 10 TD's to get him to win this award.

I don't disagree with the name as he is a likely choice, but are you sure you didn't get him confused with someone else in terms of him tearing it up at TC? His toe is still keeping him from playing or practicing full speed, Deangelo has been the one tearing it up, J Stew really hasn't done anything up to this point in TC but simple walk throughs and meetings, so I don't really think he has been reported as being a man amongst boys because he hasn't been going full speed yet.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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Thanks thule. I really enjoy those.
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<+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
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What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Oh please come one now, you act like he's a Bears fan and said his team was going to win the super bowl, saying Dallas is due to win a playoff game is far from a homer statement, neither is Romo for MVP as I've seen it in countless magazines, I wish people around here would stop acting like you can't say anything positive about your own team or your a homer








I don't disagree with the name as he is a likely choice, but are you sure you didn't get him confused with someone else in terms of him tearing it up at TC? His toe is still keeping him from playing or practicing full speed, Deangelo has been the one tearing it up, J Stew really hasn't done anything up to this point in TC but simple walk throughs and meetings, so I don't really think he has been reported as being a man amongst boys because he hasn't been going full speed yet.
I've just been reading...so I can't be sure...but here is some stuff I ran across.

Quote:
RB Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart is already making believers out of his teammates with powerful running and a devastating stiff arm. Given the Panthers stated goal to emphasize the power running game he may already be the starter come game one. I still expect incumbent DeAngelo Williams to gets his share of plays but I expect them to be suited to his running style. Contrary to my previous opinions on who will start at RB I now think Stewart is more suited to the 1st and 2nd down running plays the Panthers will favor.
http://www.catscratchreader.com/2008...thers-training
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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Thanks thule. I really enjoy those.
I wanted to get you something for the chiefs...but to tell you the truth ever since i moved back to ND...I haven't heard a damn thing about them. And any prediction I made would simply be a guess with no reasoning behind it. Like LJ will have more yards this year because they drafted Albert !!!111!!
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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Well thats definately positive as I am a fan, I was just reading how they were holding him out of scrimmages and 11 on 11 in TC so I figured he had yet to see the field, but it does sound promising.


Carolina is my surprise team to make the playoffs, Peppers will make a resurgence, and that offense is going to be very high powered, only guy I could see beating out Stewart is Matty Ice if he is given the start from week 1.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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Couple of little requests on your views of the Giants.

What are these overlooked losses you speak of?

-We lose Kawika Mitchell and bring in Danny Clark along with two rookies...one of which has been on the same level as Kenny Phillips in training camp (Kehl).

-We lose Strahan but with the amount of pass rushers we have and considering it is Justin Tuck stepping in, should we really be worried?

-We lose Gibril Wilson and draft your pick for DROY and bring in savvy vet Sammy Knight.

-Shockey is a loss for us but a TE is no longer the focal point of the offense. We are focused on power run game where we have a great line and 3 good backs to work with and the deep ball in the passing game, where we are still a big time threat.
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:50 PM    (permalink
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Great stuff. + rep
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Old 08-12-2008, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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Oh please come one now, you act like he's a Bears fan and said his team was going to win the super bowl, saying Dallas is due to win a playoff game is far from a homer statement, neither is Romo for MVP as I've seen it in countless magazines, I wish people around here would stop acting like you can't say anything positive about your own team or your a homer.
It's not that you can't say anything positive (although saying you'll win the MVP and be the best team in your conference is a bit presumptuous personally), it's that there are 32 teams in the NFL, and the Cowboys get 2 out of the 10 predictions. In fact, before I even opened the thread I had a pretty strong inclination that it would be Cowboys focused. That's not a knock on Thule, I like Thule a lot actually, it's just indicative of how Cowboys fans that think the NFL revolves around them, despite the fact that they haven't done anything important in over a decade.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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It's not that you can't say anything positive (although saying you'll win the MVP and be the best team in your conference is a bit presumptuous personally), it's that there are 32 teams in the NFL, and the Cowboys get 2 out of the 10 predictions. In fact, before I even opened the thread I had a pretty strong inclination that it would be Cowboys focused. That's not a knock on Thule, I like Thule a lot actually, it's just indicative of how Cowboys fans that think the NFL revolves around them, despite the fact that they haven't done anything important in over a decade.
I always love when people group "Cowboys fans" into one group as if they all think the same and don't have a mind of their own.


If this was a Peter King article it was a good chance 2 out of 10 would be Cowboys related, Matt Mosely, anything on ESPN, your acting like it would be out of the ordinary for that to happen, the Cowboys are media darlings, and I don't think that has anything to do with us Cowboys fans, and they get a majority of attention good and bad.


Look around on the internet, probably every single "10 NFL truth" stories offers plenty Cowboy talk, in fact if you google it thats the first thing that pops up, but I guess their Cowboy fans too? He said Romo was going to win the MVP and Dallas was going to win a playoff game, yea he obviously thinks the NFL revolves around Dallas.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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Couple of little requests on your views of the Giants.

What are these overlooked losses you speak of?

-We lose Kawika Mitchell and bring in Danny Clark along with two rookies...one of which has been on the same level as Kenny Phillips in training camp (Kehl).

-We lose Strahan but with the amount of pass rushers we have and considering it is Justin Tuck stepping in, should we really be worried?

-We lose Gibril Wilson and draft your pick for DROY and bring in savvy vet Sammy Knight.

-Shockey is a loss for us but a TE is no longer the focal point of the offense. We are focused on power run game where we have a great line and 3 good backs to work with and the deep ball in the passing game, where we are still a big time threat.
I don't think Clark is really a good enough replacement for Mitchell...if I'm not mistaken wasn't mitchell mainly a 2 down backer in NY? And he still managed to get over 75 tackles and 3.5 sacks.

Strahan single handly beat the cowboys in the playoffs. I watched NFL Replay of the game and it had a interesting convo between Strahan and the Dcord...it went something like this.
"Get Davis off of me and we will win this game." Next possession they started bringing strong side help...and it was then one on one with Strahan and Columbo...add that in with the fact that bringing strong side help allowed them to slant down on koiser I really think it was the difference in the game.

Now replacing him with Tuck is fine...although Tuck isn't near the leader of Strahan...but you now lose Tucks ability inside...unless you guys are still keeping him there...in which case is Kiwi coming down in those situations?

I'm not claiming to be a Toonster here and know everything about everybody...but I think Strahan is a huge loss that will be measured this offseason...and the loss of Shockey isn't as big of a loss as some seem..but hell he was gold for 2 good games a year vs. the cowboys....I'm not sure Boss is that guy...overall I just think the leadership is what went missing this offseason...and I'm not sold that Eli or Pierce can pick up for what was lost.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:10 PM    (permalink
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5) Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, Caleb Hanie, Devin Hester, and Sid Luckman's dead corpse will all start a game as the Bears QB
Fixed. Its going to be a long year.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:11 PM    (permalink
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Well thats definately positive as I am a fan, I was just reading how they were holding him out of scrimmages and 11 on 11 in TC so I figured he had yet to see the field, but it does sound promising.


Carolina is my surprise team to make the playoffs, Peppers will make a resurgence, and that offense is going to be very high powered, only guy I could see beating out Stewart is Matty Ice if he is given the start from week 1.
I've been reading Peppers is as good as he's ever been and to expect huge things out of him...if Carolina gets the media buying into them being a legit playoff contender which shouldn't be hard in the NFC he might just get a shot at DPOTY.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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I don't agree with Bf51's complaints, first off 2 out of 10 items isn't "homeristic." Now if it was 3, okay I might agree.

Second, you can't include all 32 teams, and you want to talk about what you want to talk about and think could happen, however that works out.

Really nice job, thule. I'll get to responding to some things.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:17 PM    (permalink
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It's not a coincidence that they are only a +425 on the ML down in vegas right now or 6/1 on bodog to win the superbowl....in both cases 2nd best odds to win it all behind the pats. I really tried to keep homerism out of this as much as possible.
Vegas and odds don't mean anything except how much people are betting on a team. The more people put their money down for Dallas, the more the odds are adjusted in their favor, so as to protect the house from losing money. If everybody went to Vegas right now and started putting their money on St. Louis to win the Superbowl, then they would be the ones with the best odds to win the Superbowl.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:18 PM    (permalink
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If you're looking for a running back to dominate in Carolina it will be Williams not Stewart.

Stewart has been playing well, but Williams has been better, in his third year he's a much bigger part of the team as a leader and he's faster, stronger and better than ever. He's going to be the team's work horse, Stewart will be lucky to crack 1000 yards this season.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:20 PM    (permalink
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I always love when people group "Cowboys fans" into one group as if they all think the same and don't have a mind of their own.


If this was a Peter King article it was a good chance 2 out of 10 would be Cowboys related, Matt Mosely, anything on ESPN, your acting like it would be out of the ordinary for that to happen, the Cowboys are media darlings, and I don't think that has anything to do with us Cowboys fans, and they get a majority of attention good and bad.


Look around on the internet, probably every single "10 NFL truth" stories offers plenty Cowboy talk, in fact if you google it thats the first thing that pops up, but I guess their Cowboy fans too? He said Romo was going to win the MVP and Dallas was going to win a playoff game, yea he obviously thinks the NFL revolves around Dallas.
There are a lot of Cowboys homers out there. Are you new or something?
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:26 PM    (permalink
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Vegas and odds don't mean anything except how much people are betting on a team. The more people put their money down for Dallas, the more the odds are adjusted in their favor, so as to protect the house from losing money. If everybody went to Vegas right now and started putting their money on St. Louis to win the Superbowl, then they would be the ones with the best odds to win the Superbowl.
And everyone would've lost the capacity to have a rational thought. No defense? Porous OL? holdout superstar? They're going all the way!
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:29 PM    (permalink
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And everyone would've lost the capacity to have a rational thought. No defense? Porous OL? holdout superstar? They're going all the way!
That's an extreme example, but anyone that knows anything about gambling knows that you're almost always betting off better on the team that has the smaller fan base. Watch how many times Notre Dame beats the spread for example.


I put down 100 bucks on Florida to win the NL East at 20/1 odds a few weeks ago. I feel pretty good about taking the Mets and Phillies homers on with those odds.
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