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Old 10-22-2008, 03:57 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Default Help JBond win $250 by picking NFL games!

Hey everyone,

This year, I joined an NFL Pick'Em League. It's $10 a week. The overall winner gets 3 Grand, the weekly winner gets $250. Let's just say, the majority of weeks, I've sucked royally. So, I need to win one week straight up to make a profit (or even my money back :P). I've tried some gimmicks, picking all home teams, picking based on line changes, etc, none have worked well, so I figured, my next gimmick would be to ask NFLDC.

Rule 1: This thread is not to argue for your team, or about games, or what not. All I want is picks with maybe some top notch analysis!

Rule 2: The lines don't change. We take the early Wednesday line and stick with it.

Rule 3: I'll likely tally and go with the majority, though it is close, I'll lean my way.

Rule 4: Don't be a homer here. Money is involved! Especially with lines involved, you don't have to be a homer to call these as you see them.


So, here are the games to pick against the spread!

Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

Also, feel free to predict the MNF total score (e.g. 35 points, 51 points, etc) as the tiebreaker!
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

My picks in bold.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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Default

What's in it for me?

No. Really. You're going on luck here to a certain extent...

knowledge will net you 8 games. luck will net you 6 more.

that said

edit:

Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:04 PM    (permalink
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Both sound better than my usual 4!
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:07 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBond93 View Post

Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

Also, feel free to predict the MNF total score (e.g. 35 points, 51 points, etc) as the tiebreaker!
Picks in bold. Total score of MNF, 47.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBond93 View Post
Both sound better than my usual 4!
I think you have to look at what are the sure bets this week.

What do you think are the sure bets? (i can tell you, atlanta sounds like one of them... that +9 is really tempting)
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

that's just my gut, the lines are pretty brutal this week (i can honestly not guarantee these picks dont go 0-14 this week, so value my picks accordingly), might be the first time in a while i dont put any money on any games
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by awfullyquiet View Post
I think you have to look at what are the sure bets this week.

What do you think are the sure bets? (i can tell you, atlanta sounds like one of them... that +9 is really tempting)
There aren't any. Last week, I thought Oakland was for sure going to lose by at least 3, they did not. I mean, sure bets and spread don't match. I'm just looking for a multitude of perspectives so we can pick out of strength!
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
Total MNF Score : 44 points

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Old 10-22-2008, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly 9 points is just too much, Philly wins, but Atlanta covers

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina Carolina @ home vs a west coast team traveling across the country and while I love Arizona's offense, Carolina's defense matches up well this week.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami I don't know what it is, but Miami is very unpredictable, Buffalo, are they REALLY that good? They may be, but I like Miami to edge em out this week

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ 13 points is just too much to not go with. I don't count on the Jets defense being capable enough to keep them from scoring 20, which will put them close enough to hold within 2 touchdowns.

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore Sure, Jamarcus looked good last week, but he didn't see this defense either, I like him to give it up and give it up big time, to the tune of a 14+ point spread for the Ravens

St. Louis (+7) @ New England St. Louis not the same team it was starting out this season, with the coach gone, it's like they're playing inspired football, New England is old, and banged up, I like St. Louis to win this game outright.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe) You never can tell what you're going to get out of the Chargers, and this game is literally a coin flip being that it's played in Europe, but I like Drew Brees with an improved rushing attack now that Bush is out.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas Dallas has to win by more than a fieldgoal, and Tampa Bay has a really stingy defense, but Dallas is up against it right now, Brad Johnson can handle the blitz, at least mentally, I like Dallas' offense to catch fire here at home.

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit How can you pick Detroit? They're bound to win a game one week, but not against Clinton Portis, not picking a RB vs the Lions, well that's just foolish, one as good as Portis, that's just lunacy. Washington by 10.

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville Cleveland is without K2, the off field issues are going to have that team distracted and the power of Jacksonville is going to dominate in this game, that physical defense and powerful running attack get it done this week. They won't have to score much, Cleveland's offense sputters almost to a complete stop this week.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston You can't give Houston that much credit, 9.5 against an offense that can score, haven't much this season, but 9.5 is way too much, I pick Houston to win, but Cinci will cover this spread.

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh Fantastic game, big time matchup, That Steeler defense is fierce, I like Ben even with his offensive line struggling a bit, I also like Santonio Holmes to have a big game this week. I know the Giants defense has been good, but I just like the matchup this week for Pitt.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran New coach, off the field issues, lots of distraction...well that just gives Singletary more fuel to get these guys focused, Seattle is banged up and just aren't good at football right now, I like San Fran at home to win by 7.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (45) Good tight game, but I like Tennessee's defense this week, maybe Indy's offense was overlooking the potent Green Bay pass coverage, but they're looking into the eyes of a different animal this week. Tennessee has a lot to prove, this is their stage to prove it, I don't think they'll have a let down.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:44 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

I think Philly will win, but this is a very generous spread. I like Atlanta to cover the spread here with Matty Ice keeping it close. The Falcons o-line has done a wonderful job protecting Ryan this year and even though they haven't seen a pass rush as good as Philly, I still expect the o-line to perform well.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

I think the Cardinals are a top-5 team this season... AT HOME. They need to prove that they can play on the road before I'll pick them to win on the east coast.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Honestly, is there something I'm missing with this line. I understand that the Bills don't score big points on teams, but they just win. As long as they outscore win this game, I think it would be hard not to cover the spread.

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

The Jets are currently 0-2 against the AFC West. I see them winning this game, but not covering the spread. I would like more consistency with the team before I pick them when they are favored by such a huge spread.

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

Argh... This one is tough. I think I'd just pick Oakland here because both teams can't score points. My only worry would be Baltimore's defense overpowering Oakland. On second thought, I think that Baltimore's dominant run defense will stop Oakland from getting much done.

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

St. Louis looks better, but still isn't that good. New England should win this one by halftime.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

The field will be wet, so the win goes to whoever can run the ball. San Diego edges out New Orleands sans Reggie Bush.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

In Brad Johnson's homecoming, he won't even have time to throw. Monte Kiffin is doing an amazing job this season and will demonstrate how good his defense is.

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

I just can't pick Detroit. Then again, Washington screams upset here.

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Without Kellen Winslow Cleveland beat the Giants. Without Winslow, Cleveland will compete with the Jaguars. Shaun Rogers will stop the running game for the Jags and force Garrard to throw. I'm not sure if Garrard can win games on his own.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

Can Houston really win by this much? I think not. That is really my entire assessment for the game.

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

The Giants defense will kill Big Ben. The game is at Pittsburgh, but it isn't much of a factor for a team that is normally great on the road.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

San Francisco has everything going for them this week with Singletary as the HC. The Seahawks start Seneca Wallace.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

12-26. That is the combined record for the teams that Tennessee has faced. They have only faced 2 offensives ranked in the top-21. I gotta go with the experienced team here.

Also, feel free to predict the MNF total score (e.g. 35 points, 51 points, etc) as the tiebreaker!

24-14 Colts.
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I don't have to watch it to know it was not interesting.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

San Francisco has everything going for them this week with Singletary as the HC. The Seahawks start Seneca Wallace.
Wait. Seattle starts Seneca Wallace?

I endorse TP's statement.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:40 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly
Between philly's underachieving and the impressive play of the falcons I've gotta go with the falcons with that spread.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina
Carolina, if the cards win it'll be close and decided by a FG late.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami
Bills, division games are tough but this is the bills first divisional game of the season and the players are excited.

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ
Brett Favre should put up a lot of points if that D can force turnovers.

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore
I like oakland in this because I think they have a chance to win and see a FG being the difference either way.

St. Louis (+7) @ New England
Love what we've seen from the rams, but the Patriots have momentum off that drumming of the cutlers.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)
Saints are just too injured plagued and while Brees will probably out perform Rivers I just don't see NO losing by less than a TD.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas
If romo plays go with the cowboys to bounce back and rally around they're ailing quarterback. If not expect Kiffin's defense to take advantage of Brad Johnson.

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit
Washington. Portis should have a season high caliber game. Cambell will have a productive day and will protect the football not giving Detroit any short fields. I see a big blow out here.

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville
I like the jags to come out and put a beat down on the winslow-less browns.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston
Gotta go with a Houston in what could be a statement game for the ever improving Texans.

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh
I'm a giants fan so I think our running game will be able to move the chains against their D to wear out those monster pass rushers on the outside. defensively I like our secondary on their receivers and if spags stays creative with his twists and stunts and we get pressure we should be able to win this with a late drive for a TD or a FG to break the tie.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran
I like the 9ers by a TD+ in Mike Singletary's first game as HC.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
I like the colts to hand the Titans their first loss, I think they're a veteran team that'll rise to the occasion against the division leader in a must win game for them.

Colts 26-Titans 23
49 total points.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:47 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Arizona is getting 4.5, so if they win, I win with that pick. If they lose by a FG, same.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:52 PM    (permalink
giantsfan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBond93 View Post
Arizona is getting 4.5, so if they win, I win with that pick. If they lose by a FG, same.
Yeah, my bad, that was a brain fart on my part.
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Old 10-22-2008, 06:37 PM    (permalink
yodabear
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Listen to Evilmonkey and packmann they seems like to be the only ones knowing what he is talking about in here.
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Old 10-22-2008, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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I agree yoda. Why are people putting away the Dallas win like it was nothing, that gave the Rams all the momentum they need for the season.
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Old 10-22-2008, 07:02 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 08:46 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF) 31
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:24 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina
-Carolina is at home this week and they are playing some of the best football in the league. Granted Arizona had a big win against Dallas in their last game, but Carolina is riding a high and their defense was rather impressive against New Orleans.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami
-Back-to-back losses for Miami and it gets no easier

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ
-Kansas City SUCKS

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore
-Oakland's offense will get a warm welcome from Baltimore and will struggle big time. Flacco manages the game and the Ravens win by double figures.

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas
-TWO WORDS : Brad Johnson

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston
-Houston is finding a groove and Fitzpatrick is hopeless

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh
-The Giants haven't been lighting the world on fire and last time they hit the road, they were hit hard. Pittsburgh gets Willie back and their offense becomes more dynamic.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran
-Hasselbeck may play this week and even if he doesn't the 49ers aren't really riding a high wave right now after the dismissal of Nolan.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
-Indy's run defense is in rough shape right now and their offense got shut down by a beat up Green Bay squad. Tennessee, on a late TD, covers.

*Note : I am the top Capper in Borat's thread in Off-Topic
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:55 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:14 PM    (permalink
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I edit this post because Emeril-bond tells me to.

Last edited by BrownsTown : 10-23-2008 at 02:00 PM.
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