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Old 10-24-2008, 03:44 PM    (permalink
iloxygenil
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Default 8-2 9-2...imagine the possibilities

If the Falcons manage to pull off the upset victory Sunday against the Eagles, it's very possible that the Falcons can get to the 8-2 mark. We'll face Oakland on the road, Denver at home, so if the Falcons put it to 5-2 this week, those are 2 very winnable games. I'm not going to write them down or even pencil them in, but I like our chances of being 7-3. Denver presents some serious issues in coverage, but if we can get Turner going against them and control the clock, the game is ours to lose. Plus Falcons have been beasts at home. The flight across country to Oakland could really throw things off for us, but I'd like to think that we're a good enough team to handle Oakland while we're out their way. Plus with all the injuries, plus upcoming suspensions for New Orleans with them coming to Atlanta I like our chances a lot.

At worst I'd expect 6-4, but it's looking like 7-3 is a strong possibility, with 8-2 not out of the question. Maybe I'm reaching a little bit here, but then we have Carolina come to the Georgia dome...again we're good at home and you have to expect to split division series, you expect to lose on the road and win at home, so that'd push us to a possible 9-2 and virtually lock a playoff spot in the NFC Wildcard, obviously we couldn't settle for that, because the only real chance the Falcons have for a deep playoff run is one that's hosted in the Dome...but that's getting a little bit out there.

I don't wanna get too far out in front, because this game with Philly is going to be a very trying one, and a very good matchup, but if this team has really learned how to win on the road after their win in Green Bay, this team is going to have such an infusion of confidence they'll be dangerous. So here's to Sunday and hopefully a W vs the very tough Eagles. And here's to hoping!


Oh yeah, one other thing, as long as we can stay semi under the radar, which I think even if we beat Philly we'll still be looked over a bit as a team, as long as TN keeps winning their games and they're the team looked at as the dominant ones, and if the Giants can keep pace and not drop the ball, we can go overlooked to the 9-2 mark...which would be a GREAT help to this team. I hope this young team didn't start reading too many of their own press clippings...stay focused Falcons!

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Old 10-24-2008, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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Philly, Oakland, Denver are no walk in the park games at all especially when your team is still somewhere in between a contender and a pretender.

A LOT of things would have to go right in order for them to come close to that mark. Personally I don't like Ryan very much this week against Jimmie Johnson and that blitzing Eagles D who appear to feast on young QBs the last few years. Oakland on the road isn't so easy as it seems on paper as the Jets found out not too long ago. Denver at home, okay maybe. I know you're saying 8-2, 9-2 could 'potentially' occur and you're really excited about the success of your young, up and coming squad but in reality they have a difficult road ahead of them at the moment. Just my thoughts.
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Old 10-24-2008, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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Philly, Oakland, Denver are no walk in the park games at all especially when your team is still somewhere in between a contender and a pretender.

A LOT of things would have to go right in order for them to come close to that mark. Personally I don't like Ryan very much this week against Jimmie Johnson and that blitzing Eagles D who appear to feast on young QBs the last few years. Oakland on the road isn't so easy as it seems on paper as the Jets found out not too long ago. Denver at home, okay maybe. I know you're saying 8-2, 9-2 could 'potentially' occur and you're really excited about the success of your young, up and coming squad but in reality they have a difficult road ahead of them at the moment. Just my thoughts.
I agree with you completely, I didn't say it would be easy, but I believe 7-3 is likely. Oakland shouldn't be a problem, Ryan has torched the blitz, not just for a rookie, but to the tune of 64% completion, and 0 sacks 0 ints...only 1 TD, but heck that's 1/5th of his production heh. I know we haven't faced a blitz this good, but we've faced a couple really tough opponents in the passing defense department, Ryan is doing very well. I expect them to lose Sunday against the Eagles, but I really feel like if they win that game the confidence they'll have for the next few weeks will carry them. The trip across the country to play Oakland is tougher than playing the game on the field, the Jets choked...and the Jets aren't that good of a team anyway.
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Old 10-24-2008, 05:52 PM    (permalink
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Not happening.
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Old 10-24-2008, 06:04 PM    (permalink
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Not happening.
Glad you're so positive and so up beat, also so resourceful in your research and the basis for your opinion. It's the NFL anything can happen...that's why it's so beautiful.
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Old 10-24-2008, 06:11 PM    (permalink
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As a Panther fan it's hard for me to say this, but I'm actually happy for Falcon fans that they're having success this year after the mess that was last year between Vick's legal troubles and the Petrino fiasco.

BTW- I really wanted Matt Ryan for the Panthers but I'm glad he's having the success that he is. You guys definitely got a good one in him and it'll be fun to watch him...except when he's playing us.
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Old 10-25-2008, 07:53 AM    (permalink
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Glad you're so positive and so up beat, also so resourceful in your research and the basis for your opinion. It's the NFL anything can happen...that's why it's so beautiful.
I'll make a wager that it doesn't happen if you would like. Sig would probably be easiest, but I reckon cash would be possible.
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Old 10-25-2008, 07:55 AM    (permalink
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I'll make a wager that it doesn't happen if you would like. Sig would probably be easiest, but I reckon cash would be possible.
I didn't say I wanted to bet on it, look at the title...possibilities. It's not unthinkable that this could happen. Not to mention the fact that I'm not saying there's even a 60% chance of it happening. There's a 50% chance prolly, which coming into the season if you had made a bet that the Falcons would be 4-2 to start the season you'd have been a very rich man in Vegas.
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Old 10-25-2008, 07:56 AM    (permalink
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60% chance of us having a six game win streak? I'm not seeing it.
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Old 10-25-2008, 08:55 AM    (permalink
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60% chance of us having a six game win streak? I'm not seeing it.
This is just evidence that you don't read anything I say. I said there's not even a 60% chance, possibly 50%...so from now on make sure you're reading what I say and not just assuming, you do that a lot.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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Ok, even 50%. That is way too high. We have a close to 50% chance of losing every game from here on out. What's the odds of flipping a coin 6 times and getting heads each time? Not good.

.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5

What's that, a three percent chance?
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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Ok, even 50%. That is way too high. We have a close to 50% chance of losing every game from here on out. What's the odds of flipping a coin 6 times and getting heads each time? Not good.

.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5

What's that, a three percent chance?
You're not very good at this.

30% chance vs Philly
70% chance vs Oakland
70% chance vs New Orleans
50% chance vs Denver

So, you figure that number, add those together totalling 220/400 = 55%

That may be a little favorable, but I'd say if Denver w/o Champ Bailey can't stop the run we'll destroy them...New Orleans at home w/o many of their best players.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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I'm not good at this? You have it all wrong.

You must have never taken math. If I'm correct, the math should not average all of those games. If you average those games then that makes the odds of winning per game. If you are talking seperate games consecutively (spelling), then you must multiply.

The way you had it gives us a 17% chance (.3 x .7 x .7 x .5). If you say we had a 50% against the Bears and Packers then it comes out to 4.3%.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:37 AM    (permalink
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I'm not good at this? You have it all wrong.

You must have never taken math. If I'm correct, the math should not average all of those games. If you average those games then that makes the odds of winning per game. If you are talking seperate games consecutively (spelling), then you must multiply.

The way you had it gives us a 17% chance (.3 x .7 x .7 x .5). If you say we had a 50% against the Bears and Packers then it comes out to 4.3%.
How can that not be the average? I guess I'm missing something, the average if 30% 70% 70% and 50% is in NO way 17%...it's not possible...

If you take the average of 20 15 and 30 the average of those numbers couldn't be 7...

That's like if you say you got a 30% on a test, a 70% a 70% and a 50% that you'd end up with a 17% grade in the class...

Maybe I'm flawed in the way that I figured it though.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:43 AM    (permalink
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I think you are. The odds of winning each game, on average, would be 55%. But if you are talking a streak, and saying the odds of winning four straight, it is not 55%.

Look at it this way. 4 game stretch with Kansas City, Detroit, Cincinatti, and the NY Giants.

So, let's say 90%, 90%, 90%, and 10%. The average of each game would be 70%. But would the odds of winning those four straight be 70%? No, because of the Giants. You must multiply.

.9 x .9 x .9 x .1 = .0729. 7.2%. Before factoring in the Giants game it was .729. 72.9%.

I'm fairly sure that is how it gos. I may be a bit off, but I'm pretty sure it is something like that.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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That makes sense. I was trying to figure it out, I wasn't sure how exactly that would work, but it's gotta be something smaller, I'd say we have a better chance than 17% to get that streak, but the biggest obstacle is this week's game. So lets hope we can pull this out. Either way I think 7-3 is a very strong likelyhood
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Old 10-25-2008, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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Actually .3 x .7 x .7 x .5 = 0.0735 (.3 x .7= .21 x .7= .147 x .5= .0735), or a 7.35% chance.
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Old 10-25-2008, 11:10 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, sounds about right. I must have put in a wrong key somewhere in my calculator.
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Old 10-26-2008, 05:44 PM    (permalink
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Well. So much for that.

I think we can beat up on Oakland, Saints, and Broncos though. Turner and Ryan should have field days against them, especially after todays sub par outing.
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Old 10-26-2008, 08:39 PM    (permalink
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Read the whole post...I still think we can get to 7-3 which is what my more realistic thought was going into this game anyway.
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Old 10-27-2008, 06:40 PM    (permalink
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Falcons pretty much got robbed in the Eagles game.
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Old 10-27-2008, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Falcons didnt get robbed of the outcome of the Eagles game, but they got robbed of a chance to win it. Pissed me off.

Before the season started, I had them finishing 7-9. That's higher than ANY NFL "expert" had (SI had them at 2-14; seriously?? worst team in the NFL?!?!)

Either way, After pretty much getting robbed of a possible 5-2 start, im think this team can win as much as 11 games. I mean, Its almost a guarentee AT LEAST one WC team will be an NFC East team, but for the 2nd, it will most liekly be an East or South team, so Atlanta needs to win its home division games and get some nice away wins, and hope Carolina's luck runs out and that Tampa Bay and NO just dont win. I believe this team can make the playoffs. 5 more home games we pretty much need to win. 4-1 at the worst the rest of the home schedule. Unfortunetly, the away games other than the Oakland one are not too easy to give us a W, but i think we can get some, so I think 11 wins will be the most we win this year, and thats with some luck and thats what I want. Realistically, Im going with 9-7, expecting 4 Home Wins and one on the road for the rest of the year. But of course, thats just a guess and I want them to win all of them.
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Old 10-27-2008, 07:51 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons got robbed with a Bad PR as well, If he wasn't going to catch it, he should of just let it dropped. But other then that, that play was BS that the "muffled" punt costed the falcons a come back which I believe we could of won.
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