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Old 11-03-2008, 05:58 PM    (permalink
illmatic74
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In the NFL most games or decided by who has the best ypa.
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Old 11-03-2008, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by d34ng3l021 View Post

Yards Per Attempt
Like I said, the QB rating is nice, but one awesome statistic is the YPA. This is where you get the idea of how the QB plays. Is he the type of guy to check down constantly to his backs and TE or is he a guy who will take shots downfield to keep the defense honest? If you add this statistic with the comp. %, you can really gauge the type of player he is. High YPA, low comp % = Gunslinger. Low YPA, high comp. % = Captain Checkdown.
Just curious, which would you prefer? One needs to point out "will take shots downfield" is not entirely important, well at least not as important as perhaps "sends routes downfield". I'd rather have a QB that hits the constant 5-10 yard pass (not counting YAC - which would be another interesting statistic-YPA+YAC average) as opposed to the Gunslinger who throws the bomb, unsuccessfully at times, and slows the teams momentum.
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Old 11-03-2008, 07:18 PM    (permalink
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Just curious, which would you prefer? One needs to point out "will take shots downfield" is not entirely important, well at least not as important as perhaps "sends routes downfield". I'd rather have a QB that hits the constant 5-10 yard pass (not counting YAC - which would be another interesting statistic-YPA+YAC average) as opposed to the Gunslinger who throws the bomb, unsuccessfully at times, and slows the teams momentum.
Well of course a balance of each would be preferred, and extremes of both cases are just no good. I guess I thought a lot about this during the ATL-OAK game whenever the Raiders offense was on the field. Russell never looked downfield. He may have looked for a second or two, but just ended up throwing it to his TE or RB. It was pretty pathetic.

If I were to pick the extremes (what you described was not an extreme in my opinion. I am thinking David Carr esque. Like 5 YPA), I would take the gunslinger. Even though it may be unsuccessful most of the time, it can at least keep the defense honest and open up the run game. With the guy trying to complete short passes only, the teams can just stack the box and not be scared of being beat deep. This is what is often done against rookie or ineffective QBs. They dare them to be beaten by the past and the QBs sometimes just cant do it.
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Old 11-03-2008, 08:04 PM    (permalink
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Even though it may be unsuccessful most of the time, it can at least keep the defense honest and open up the run game. With the guy trying to complete short passes only, the teams can just stack the box and not be scared of being beat deep. This is what is often done against rookie or ineffective QBs. They dare them to be beaten by the past and the QBs sometimes just cant do it.
From a coach's standpoint, throwing the deep ball doesn't keep a defense honest; running the route is far greater a factor.
If it were a spectrum with perfect balance in the middle, I'd prefer a QB closer to the Captain Checkdown extreme.
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Old 11-04-2008, 01:17 AM    (permalink
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YPA is a good stat, but not entirely on the QB. Take the Pats v Broncos recently. Cassel's YPA was basically enhanced by the YAC of his WR's. I doubt the stat is kept at all, but the best measurement would obviously be yards per catch at the point of catch.
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Old 11-04-2008, 01:28 AM    (permalink
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A stat that is overlooked when judging o-lineman is yards per attempt to their side.

A stat that is overlooked is amount of drives over 60-65 yards that result in points. To me that is a true measure of a great offense.

A stat that needs to be kept is tackle percentage. How often did a player miss a tackle?

Just a couple off the top of my head.
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Old 11-04-2008, 01:35 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Turtlepower View Post
Where is Bruce Banner and T24L arguing about Sabr and a bunch of crappy computer stats used in baseball?
So crappy that every MLB team has a department dedicated to them.

and T24L is probably dead.

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Drops - Braylon.
There is a stat that takes this a step further, though I don't know where to find it.

It records the % of the time that a receiver catches the ball when the ball is intended for them. The league average was something like 59-61% last year. Braylon only caught 52% of the balls intended for him. I'm not sure if these "intended" passes have to be considered "catchable" to be used, so Derek Anderson could be the leading factor (but we really know he isn't [56.5 completion]...Braylon's butterfingers are). I am completely disregarding any other factors here, such as QB-WR chemistry and such.

If someone could take it a step further and weight the percentages (with a formula I have yet to/never will determine) based on which QB is throwing the ball, that could be the best indicator of a player's "hands"......assuming the sample size is large enough to be deemed usable, 80-90 attempts minimum?

Despite the sketchiness, I think we can develop tools that would allow us to measure a player's individual worth in the NFL.

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Old 11-04-2008, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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i think we can too.

the NFL is just the old boys club, insular and unwilling to change.

to get started at this though. there needs to be standardization as to record keeping. which can be done. normalizing the records wouldn't be too difficult.
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