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View Poll Results: Select the THREE (3) Quarterbacks you think will be on the Lions roster in 2009:
Dan Orlovsky 31 59.62%
Drew Stanton 38 73.08%
Jon Kitna 8 15.38%
Daunte Culpepper 20 38.46%
Matthew Stafford 42 80.77%
Mark Sanchez 4 7.69%
Josh Freeman 1 1.92%
Drew Henson 3 5.77%
Other Free Agent Veteran QB 8 15.38%
Other QB taken in the late rounds 1 1.92%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 52. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-26-2009, 08:35 PM    (permalink
bendert58
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I don't want to start stafford (atleast not the first year). I feel like Orvlosky deserves the job and will get it. He wasn't great, but the fact that he's playing for the lions made him look OK (IMO), and I'd like to see him continue to develop now having some games under his belt. He has some things to work on, but the fact that this was his first year really playing, makes me want to see what he can do as the starter heading into the season taking starter reps in practice etc...
I agree, I just dont see the Lions drafting Stafford and then sitting him in favor of Orvlosky. I think they might do it to start the season, but after a few games Stafford would be thrown into the fire, which i do not think is a good move.
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Old 01-26-2009, 09:10 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brent View Post
Ah, wasnt aware of the cap situation. I guess it's Stanton, Stafford and Henson for you?
I think a veteran with starting experience would have to be in there somewhere . . . so, Orlovsky, Daunte, or veteran FA.
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Old 01-26-2009, 09:21 PM    (permalink
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I agree that QB will be our 1st overall pick if either Stafford or Sanchez get a high enough ranking to be considered. Any decent GM will tell you it all starts with the QB. Franchise QB's have won 16/19 championships since 1990. With those odds it is hard to argue against taking a potential franchise QB if you don't have one.
Also 11 of the last 20 drafts have seen a QB go #1 overall and you have to remember that a potential franchise QB isn't available in every draft. These are facts and clearly show that GM's think QB's are worth the risk no matter what the success rate is. No other position comes close to matching the # of QB picked with the 1st overall pick. Only 2 LT have gone #1 overall in the last 20 years, one in a draft where no QB was a top prospect and last year when Miami passed on Ryan for Long. We'll have to see how that works out in the long run.
In fact, few of the top teams in the NFL have a LT drafted in round 1. Pittsburgh doesn't, Arizona doesn't, NE doesn't, Indy doesn't, the Giants don't, Tennessee doesn't, Baltimore doesn't, Dallas doesn't and San Diego doesn't. I'd say that is a clear sign that the top GM's in the business perfer to find their LT's in rounds 2-7. However, we don't know yet where our GM stands as far as capability goes. That is a question that will begin to be known after this draft. We can hope for the best but really, anything is possible since Mayhew has little in the way of track record to say he is a competent drafter.
My other 2 candidates are Orlovsky and Culpepper who should fight it out to be the starter this year. Orlovsky will sign if he has some guarantee that he will get a real shot to start, after all, on the open market, Detroit QB's don't have a lot of value. Culpepper will have to play for less with a lot of bonuses written into his contract based on performance, otherwise, he's gone.
I expect both to battle it out for the starting job while our #1 pick rides the bench for a year and learns on the sidelines.
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Old 01-26-2009, 09:53 PM    (permalink
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My other 2 candidates are Orlovsky and Culpepper who should fight it out to be the starter this year. Orlovsky will sign if he has some guarantee that he will get a real shot to start, after all, on the open market, Detroit QB's don't have a lot of value. Culpepper will have to play for less with a lot of bonuses written into his contract based on performance, otherwise, he's gone.
I expect both to battle it out for the starting job while our #1 pick rides the bench for a year and learns on the sidelines.
I'd actually feel good about our QB situation next year if this were the case. I don't really want Daunte back with his 7 million dollars owed unless Linehan really wants him though.
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Old 01-27-2009, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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I'd actually feel good about our QB situation next year if this were the case. I don't really want Daunte back with his 7 million dollars owed unless Linehan really wants him though.
In no way can I see us paying Culpeppere 7 million unless there is no way out of his contract. I'd much rather pay Orlovsky 2-4 million and keep him as our second string QB after our #1 develops. Culpepper is stop gap at best and will probably never accept 2nd string status but he might be good for our rookie QB to learn from if he is willing to share with a QB who might take his job.
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Old 01-27-2009, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statis...on=2&year=2008

Lions only had 28% success rate on 3rd downs. 31st in the NFL. Most of the time thats on the QB being clutch on 3rd down.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statis...=2& year=2008
Orlovskys YPA was pretty bad.

We need Stafford in the worst way among other things on Oline and D. If Stafford grades out he should be our QB.

As for the backup, I actually think it will be Kitna. We need a vet, he only has one more year, he's a capable starter moreso than Daunte IMO and he's cheaper than Daunte by 2 million.

Stanton is injury prone and hasn't really developed it seems. However, he is dirt cheap and has some athletic ability so he should stay as opposed to Orlovsky who would need to be resigned at probably a much larger contract than Stanton.
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Old 01-27-2009, 10:41 PM    (permalink
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we benched kitna by putting him on IR and it was probably illegal tampering by doing so. i'm pretty sure his injury was more us wanting to try other things at qb and not kitna's back. if i were kitna i'd never suit up for us again.
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:25 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Maybe Next Year Millen2 View Post
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statis...on=2&year=2008

Lions only had 28% success rate on 3rd downs. 31st in the NFL. Most of the time thats on the QB being clutch on 3rd down.
Not to TOTALLY disagree with you but thats drawing a pretty stiff conclusion on a stat that has lots of causes built in.

Thats also attributed to:
A) Offensive line penalties that put the lions back a number of yards so they were forced to eventually deal with 3rd and long. In the games I saw our OL discipline was horrible last year.
B) A running game that wouldn't get a push from a bad line on previous downs.
C) Play calling on 1st and 2nd down that wouldn't result in gained yards to put the lions in a position to be successful on 3rd down.

I'm also curious to see if there is a stat that says how many yards they needed on average for 3rd down and see if that number is also largest in the NFL.

And yes, not having a stable QB last year definitely didn't help but a stat like that, I attribute more to what happened on 1st and 2nd down than what the outcome on 3rd down was.
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Old 01-28-2009, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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Not to TOTALLY disagree with you but thats drawing a pretty stiff conclusion on a stat that has lots of causes built in.

Thats also attributed to:
A) Offensive line penalties that put the lions back a number of yards so they were forced to eventually deal with 3rd and long. In the games I saw our OL discipline was horrible last year.
B) A running game that wouldn't get a push from a bad line on previous downs.
C) Play calling on 1st and 2nd down that wouldn't result in gained yards to put the lions in a position to be successful on 3rd down.

I'm also curious to see if there is a stat that says how many yards they needed on average for 3rd down and see if that number is also largest in the NFL.

And yes, not having a stable QB last year definitely didn't help but a stat like that, I attribute more to what happened on 1st and 2nd down than what the outcome on 3rd down was.
You do have a point and since I'm iced in here where I live, I decided to look at this further. Yes Oline sacks given up played a big part of it, but Kitna and Dan O when given 3rd and shorts were not very clutch at all. Kitna had it worse than Orlvosky in terms of pressure. The first 5 games of the season were pretty bad in that aspect. I didn't look at any of Dauntes games because he won't be back next year I hope. Here are some game summaries

Kitna
Atlanta game
Kitna did not play bad. He had 3 drives that were his fault. Second drive and later in 3rd and 4th. Once on that 3rd and 9 run where he fell short on a bonehead slide. The other drives he had 2 incompletions. Many of the 3rd and longs were a result of not only sacks, but also 2 incompletions by the QB. That is a huge problem. 2 incompletions on a drive happened a ton this season from what I saw. That indicates a QB problem to me with both Kitna and Orlovsky.

Green Bay game
Again Kitna had a decent game until the very end which was a fiasco. 2nd drive and a drive in the 3rd were his fault with 2 incompletions. The rest was the Oline with sacks/penalties pushing us back. But with the game on the line, Int, Int, Int is what we are used to with Kitna. We know he is not clutch. This game just amplifies it.

San Fran game
1st half Kitna had one drive I would blame him on a 3rd and 5 and the rest was run game issues and sacks. 2nd half though, Kitnas first few drivers were terrible although we were out of the game, but Kitna is not a QB that can bring us back in it. Int, 3rd 10 Inc w/another Inc in the series and 3rd and 8 Inc w/another Inc, three drives in a row will kill our chances of comeback. Kitna is not a comeback kid.

Chicago game

Kitna's first half he was under pressure and that may have been his last action as a Lion. The pressure by the Oline was way worse in the first 5 games then the rest of the year. First drive was Oline, 2nd drive was Inc on First Down then a check down short of first down because of pressure, then Inc on 3rd-4 on 3rd drive coupled with Inc on 1st down(Kitnas fault), then Sack/fumble, another 3rd and 4 Inc on next drive(Kitnas fault), then 3rd-9 after Sack and 3rd 15 check down. Defense played terrible too and we get killed 34-7 in second worst game of the year.

I'll put Dan O in another post.
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Old 01-28-2009, 12:12 PM    (permalink
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it's best that we part ways with him now....before he kills somebody. there's only so much that a guy can take.
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Old 01-28-2009, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Even though I'm not a big fan of Kitna, I must say I'd miss him if he left. I just love Kissing Suzy Kolber's "Kurt n' Kitna" posts
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Old 01-28-2009, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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Detroir will almost definitely go into next season with a mediocre or worse vet competing with a highly rated rookie to be the starter and Detroit, like almost every other team, will also keep a cheap third option.

The cheap third option will probably be Stanton or Henson. Detroit will probably bring them both into camp and let them compete for a third Qb role. Stanton has to be given the edge given his youth and the fact that he has 2 years left on his contract as opposed to Henson's one remaining season.

The Lions could obviously go a number of different ways in the draft, but Stafford first overall seems like the most likely to happen and probably by a lot right now.

The mediocre vet is anyone's guess. The Lions could literally go with over a dozen different options. Culpepper, Orlovsky, Boller, Losman, Ramsey etc.... I think that Detroit will want someone who can start so familiarity will be important so my guess is Orlovsky. I don't think bringing him back will be an issue. He won't command a big salary because there are so many QBs with similiar talent levels who will be available in free agency. Detroit is literally the only place he will be given a good chance to start. I think he would happily resign in Detroit if it meant that he is truly competing to be the starter.

That makes my guess Orlovsky, Stafford and Stanton.
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Old 01-28-2009, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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I think a veteran with starting experience would have to be in there somewhere . . . so, Orlovsky, Daunte, or veteran FA.
Is Stanton that bad or is he just the odd man out?
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Old 01-28-2009, 01:48 PM    (permalink
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Dan Orlovsky

at Minnesota
Dan O had a decent game manager game facing a ton of pressure. 3 of the drives were Orlovsky fault the rest of the drives were run game/Oline issues. The safety was obvioulsy his fault, preceded by 2 incompletions and a 3rd and 4 Dan O didn't convert and on the Lions last full drive, Dan O had a 3rd and 6, he didn't convert when we really needed it. Granted it was his first start in the Metrodome facing a ton of pressure. Decent game for Dan O but not franchise QB type effort like Matt Ryan had in his first start.

at Houston
Another game of many where our D let us down. First 2 drives was Oline issue/fumble with Dan O/Calvin recovering, but Dan O led a nice FG drive and then closed out the half playing smart but with 3 incompletions. I question Dan O's two minute offense at times. Second half the first drive was Dan O's fault, then a Kevin Smith td drive, then another check down on 2nd and incompletion on 3rd and 8. 96 yarder got us back in it slightly on a nice Dan O throw and Calvins speed and 2 pt conversion. Then another good field goal drive to close it to 7. Good late effort by Dan O but the Oline problems on the 1st 2 drives and the 3rd Quarter problems for Dan O along with the D resulted in a loss.

Washington
First drive ended in a sack, 2nd drive Dan O had a nice 31 yarder setting up the td after the Avril forced fumble/holding penalty on Washington, next drive Dan O converted two first downs, but the drive later stalled because of two Dan O incompetions settling for a field goal, followed by another 2 incompletion drive and then a 3rd 14 with 2 incompletions and another 3rd and 13 with 2 incompletions/Backus false start. Next two drives Orlovsky could't convert a 3rd and 4 and a 3rd and 5. Then the nice td drive to try to get us back in it at 22-17. The Lions D gave up a FG drive. Final drive Dan O converted three first downs, missed a 3rd and 3, and then London Fletcher made a great play on 4th and 3 to stop Calvin short. Overall Dan O had three nice drives, but in the 2nd/3rd Quarter Dan O didn't play well at all and those 3 and outs plus the special teams play gave the Skins chance after chance. Overall a decent game for Dan O but something is just lacking for him to make the come back.

at Chicago
The first half for Dan O was great playing hurt. The int was bad but other than that a great first half. However, as good as the first half was the second half was equally as bad. 3rd and 3 Incomplet, 3rd an 8 with two incomletions, 3rd and 9 int, 3rd and 13(with two incompletion/poor run game), a 3rd 9 (with 3 incompletions), a poor run game leading to a 3rd and 13, Gaines fumble and then a good drive but Orlovsky had 3 incompletions to end the game. Another good effort but its enough to be a game manager, but not a franchise QB.

Indy
First 2 drives stalled because of Dan O (3rd and 4 and 2 incompletion drive), next drive was good but Kevin Smith fumble, then run game stalled but Dan O had incompletion on 1st down then the TD to Calvin. First drive was run game issues along with incomplete on 3rd and 7 and next drive two incompletions by Dan O we had to settle for a FG. Next drive was a good TD drive, then a 3 incompletion drive and fumble in desperation. Another decent effort but for some reason a game manager is just not enough for us.

New Orleans game
Offense was terrible. 3rd and 15 int not all Dan Os fault and running td drive with Kevin Smith. Next drive, sack ended it. Next drive Int and of course our defense didn't exist that day. Second half holding penalty hurt one drive and then 3rd and 6, 3rd and 3 not converted by Dan O. Finally Stanton didn't covert a 3rd and 4 and then was sacked. Awful game.

at Green Bay
3rd and 5 Inc plus Holding on Backus wouldn't have counted anyway
Sack
Int by QB
TD Drive
3rd and 10 Incompletion(Run game)
3rd and 5( 2 incompletions)
TD Drive
3rd and 5(2 incompletions)
3rd and 6(2 incompletions)
TD Drive
4th and 27 (Kevin Smith penalty)

Packer game, Dan O had several good drives but several drives where he couldn't convert. Not enough to carry us.

Basically, with the state of our team we need more than a game manager like Dan O. Interior line issues,defensive issues on top of LT issues need to be addressed, but having a QB that can lead that clutch play, be focused on in game planning by other team will help us greatly.
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Old 01-28-2009, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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Wow, awesome breakdowns MNYM2.

And you helped me relive that Game 2 v. Green Bay. I was getting razzed by Bears fans when I watching that game in a bar as I was screaming "NOOOOO!" everytime Kitna threw another INT in what was a close game a one point. Thanks for giving me that memory back :)

So many factors.... so few draft picks.
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Old 01-28-2009, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I've totally changed my tune since midseason when I didn't think a QB should be our #1 pick.

We can't go on with a "game-manager" QB. We need a "game-changer" at QB. That's how we can overcome many of the problems we have as a team. It all starts with QB.
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Old 01-28-2009, 03:53 PM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tblain1 View Post
Wow, awesome breakdowns MNYM2.

And you helped me relive that Game 2 v. Green Bay. I was getting razzed by Bears fans when I watching that game in a bar as I was screaming "NOOOOO!" everytime Kitna threw another INT in what was a close game a one point. Thanks for giving me that memory back :)

So many factors.... so few draft picks.
Yeah that game just amplified what Kitna over the last 2 years and 4 games is like in the clutch. Great comeback and probably the most heartbreaking game last year(other than the at Minnesota game) but then Kitna in the 4th is just an awful QB. Kitna can move the chains, espeically if given time but he's never going to win a game for you. My roomate is a Packer fan so it's safe to say I lost alot of money to him on that game. That game just crushed our season and any morale though.

And as for Orlovsky, I like the guy, I want to like the guy for the future but I want a franchise QB. Now that I think about it, I'd actually rather have Orlovsky over Kitna for next year. Orlovsky is a game manager but I'd give him an opportunity in year 2(with interior line help) since Stafford should probably just be sitting and learning. Stafford will overtake him either midseason or 2010 but it's always good to have another decent young QB on the roster. Assuming Orlovsky doesn't want starter money for some odd reason.

And there is no reason to risk getting a QB in 2010 since QBs take so long to develop. And I know the Lions are a terrible team but when we play the NFC West, Cleveland,Cincy and the NFC North(our closest games last year), we play ourselves out of top 5 somehow and not get McCoy or Bradford. Picking 6-7th in 2010 and not taking Stafford in 2009 would be a disaster. Or Sanchez if he somehow proves he is better than Stafford which is unlikely IMO.
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