Gut Feelings on Prospects

[BuddyCHRIST]

I tried to get Scott's input on this in his chat but didn't get an answer so I figured I'd ask everyone else and maybe Scott would answer to.

Everyone knows there's many boom/bust type picks in the draft, and even if you realize that they have high bust potential you rate them higher than guys with higher floors because of the ability.

The most obvious example is someone like Josh Freeman who has an immense ceiling but a good chance to be out of the league in 5 years.

What I question is how everyone see's the players actually ending up, not just how you rate them as prospects. Call it a gut feeling, because I have a feeling that Josh Freeman will be a big bust and flame out quickly, but I still have him rated as the 3rd best QB prospect and still think he is probably worth the risk of a 1st round pick. Even though I think other guys could atleast be valuable back ups for a long time.

I'll list a few guys people could answer and hope people add their own guys who they have gut feelings about regardless of how they actually view them as prospects.

Freeman - Bust, despite the great tools his production is severely lacking and he'll be forced to start before he's ready.

Vontae Davis - Bust, his attitude has me envisioning him as being a headcase for whoever drafts him and then someone takes a chance on him and regrets it.

Harvin - Boom, I think him being nicked up will always be an issue (like Westbrook is lately) but I think he'll be a gamebreaker when healthy.

Michael Johnson - Will be a nice player for a while, going against the grain since many people view him strictly as boom or bust. But I think he has a good head on his shoulders and just has a questionable motor. Guys like that have had success. I think his best fit is as a 4-3 end though, too stiff for a 3-4 OLB.

Stafford - HOF, I really have no questions that Stafford will be an elite QB. I've watched him extensively and I think he's the best QB prospect I've seen. Junior QB's don't have a great track record but he has as much experience as any QB prospects in recent memory when you consider that he's coming out of a pro style offense and played against the best defenses in the country.

Also keep in mind these don't have to be strictly boom or bust type situations.

[DeathbyStat]

Just judging the prospects in Scott first round mock

Busts-maybe not out of the league in three years...true busts but won't live up to first round grades
Crabtree

Andre Smith

Sanchez

Oher

Maybin

Wells

Freeman

Laurinatis

Solid Players but not spectacular
Jenkins
Stafford
Moreno
Cushing
Mauluaga
Tyson Jackson
Pettigrew
Clay Matthews


Pro Bowlers
Monroe
Jason Smith
Curry
Orakpo
Raji

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by BuddyCHRIST

Stafford - HOF, I really have no questions that Stafford will be an elite QB. I've watched him extensively and I think he's the best QB prospect I've seen. Junior QB's don't have a great track record but he has as much experience as any QB prospects in recent memory when you consider that he's coming out of a pro style offense and played against the best defenses in the country.

did you just put stafford in canton?

[JFLO]

Here are a couple of players that I have some gut feelings on:

I think Andre Smith is still going to be an elite offensive lineman when it comes to the next level. He certainly isn't showing his personal side to wells of far, but I think his game is going to transcend very well in the NFL, whether it is inside at guard or at right tackle.

I think all three USC linebackers are going to do pretty well at the next level, with the best being Maualuga. All three of them have very good instincts and are very disicplined when it comes to the game.

[bitonti]

my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

[bored of education]

Gerald McGrath will be the 2nd best Lb in this class.

[Babylon]

Originally Posted by bitonti

my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

Not a stretch at all.

[abaddon41_80]

My gut tells me that Crabtree is going to be a bust and that Sanchez is going to be worse than Leinart.

[RaiderNation]

Stafford- Not a bust, not a boom. He isnt a elite QB in my eyes.
Crabtree-Boom, Top 10 WR for a long time
J.Smith-Boom, Pro Bowl LT for what ever team that drafts him
Raji-Boom, Is going to have a effect like Jenkins had with the Jets or Ngata did with the ravens
Sanchez- Same as Stafford
Eugene Monroe-Boom, not as good as J.Smith, but a pro bowler
Orakpo- Bust, I dont think he will fit as a 4-3DE or a 3-4 OLB
Jenkins- Bust, Unless he goes to a tampa 2 system
A.Smith-Boom, Ive always said he is going to good a OT.
Curry- Boom, Isnt going to be a dominant LB but will be a pro bowler
Oher- Bust, IDK what to say here, I just dont have a good feeling about him
Maualuga-Boom, gonna be a beast in a 3-4 ILB
Wells- Bust, injuries will hurt his career early
Moreno- Not a boom or bust, wont be a #1 RB but could be good in a combo

[princefielder28]

Originally Posted by bored of education

Gerald McGrath will be the 2nd best Lb in this class.

winner winner chicken dinner

[BuddyCHRIST]

Originally Posted by bitonti

did you just put stafford in canton?

My GUT did!

[BeerBaron]

Oher won't bust....worst case scenario is you move him to RT where he could be even better than he ever could at LT.

[SeanTaylorRIP]

My gut tells me Lawrence Sidbury will be a 10 sack a year player in 2 or 3 years. As a 43 DE btw. Although 34 OLB is intriguing with him.

[holt_bruce81]

Tyrell Sutton will be a very solid Running Back in the NFL.

[kwilk103]

freeman----boom or bust; i dont see a middle ground with him; i think he busts

sanchez---average starter, nothing special; maybe a pro bowl or 2

stafford----pro bowl player

pat white---G.O.A.T.

[phlysac]

A Late Round/ UDFA RB that will find success as a change-of-pace-back... Tyrell Fenroy - Louisiana Lafayette

A likely UDFA QB that I feel will end up being at least a serviceable backup...
Tyler Lorenzen - Connecticut

[Malaka]

Ramses Barden -Not perennial pro bowler but definitely a couple in his career.

Stafford- Average QB

Mark Sanchez- All-Pro

Josh Freeman- project that never develops

Michael Crabtree- All-Pro

Pat White- An Interesting yet successful NFL career, will help grow the Wildcat, start some games at QB, start mostly as a receiver, used a lot on trick plays, one or two pro bowls, pretty good NFL career.

[SeanTaylorRIP]

Originally Posted by phlysac

A Late Round/ UDFA RB that will find success as a change-of-pace-back... Tyrell Fenroy - Louisiana Lafayette

A likely UDFA QB that I feel will end up being at least a serviceable backup...
Tyler Lorenzen - Connecticut

Helzz no man, Tyler Lorenzen is an awful QB, he was probably the worst QB in the country. He could run but has a noodle arm, throws floaters with no velocity, and has such a slow release.

[phlysac]

Originally Posted by SeanTaylorRIP

Helzz no man, Tyler Lorenzen is an awful QB, he was probably the worst QB in the country. He could run but has a noodle arm, throws floaters with no velocity, and has such a slow release.

I never said he'd be great but his arm strength, release, and motion are nearly identical to Matt Leinart, for what that's worth. I think Leinart will be at best a serviceable backup.

[Hickman561]

Originally Posted by bitonti

my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

I second that

[ChezPower4]

Pump the brakes on Stafford there...... He's an OK QB prospect IMO, Saying he's the best QB propect that you've ever seen???

[Halsey]

Originally Posted by ChezPower4

Pump the brakes on Stafford there...... He's an OK QB prospect IMO, Saying he's the best QB propect that you've ever seen???

Sometimes for laughs I like to go back and look at what people were saying about Matt Ryan on these boards last year:

Originally Posted by ChezPower4

Need also has to be takin into consideration every year their are teams at the top of the draft board that need QBs wether those QBs deserve a top pick is debateable but I think that matt ryan is not a top 10 pick but i know that he will be takin in the top 10 because of need.

http://draftcountdown.com/forum/show...ight=Matt+Ryan

Many of the same people this year are saying Stafford is not a top QB prospect. Maybe that's a good thing for Stafford. :)

[princefielder28]

Michael Johsnon will be a stud and Vontae Davis will be as successful as his brother

[Brent]

Drew Willy is going to really outplay his draft position.

[Bob Sanders Dreadlock]

Stafford- Won't take detroit to a championship game, but will be most successful QB in lions history.

James Laurinaitis- Joins the WWE

Pat White- can't put my finger on what he will do, but people will want to watch it