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Old 10-20-2011, 10:35 AM    (permalink
dan77733
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We're 5-1 and yet, people here are complaining. I dont understand why. Harbaugh is adding more and more to the offense every week but give them time to successfully run it. The first three games were UGH but we finished 2-1 and the win over Philly was huge because it gave us a huge boost of confidence that we still have.

We're only six games in with a new HC, new offensive scheme and a few different players here and there. This has been our best start with a new HC since 1997 so please, let's stop complaining and enjoy the 5-1 start and hope that it continues.

Thank you. :)
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Old 10-20-2011, 11:08 AM    (permalink
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Fun with numbers:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Through 6 weeks the 49ers have a:
99% chance of making the playoffs
72.5% chance of a first round bye
57.2% chance of reaching the Conference Championship
31.7% chance of winning Championship Game
17.3% of winning the Super Bowl
Statistically the 49ers have the highest % of any team in the league of getting a first round bye. Of the 3 last categories I listed the 49ers have the 2nd highest % in the league.
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Old 10-20-2011, 11:09 AM    (permalink
WhatWouldBillyBajemaDo?
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Originally Posted by dan77733 View Post
We're 5-1 and yet, people here are complaining. I dont understand why. Harbaugh is adding more and more to the offense every week but give them time to successfully run it. The first three games were UGH but we finished 2-1 and the win over Philly was huge because it gave us a huge boost of confidence that we still have.

We're only six games in with a new HC, new offensive scheme and a few different players here and there. This has been our best start with a new HC since 1997 so please, let's stop complaining and enjoy the 5-1 start and hope that it continues.

Thank you. :)
If Dan can find a center of peace through 6 weeks, we should all be capable of finding one.
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:53 PM    (permalink
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Nice blurb by Brian Billick:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...module=HP11_cp
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by WhatWouldBillyBajemaDo? View Post
Fun with numbers:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Through 6 weeks the 49ers have a:
99% chance of making the playoffs
72.5% chance of a first round bye
57.2% chance of reaching the Conference Championship
31.7% chance of winning Championship Game
17.3% of winning the Super Bowl
Statistically the 49ers have the highest % of any team in the league of getting a first round bye. Of the 3 last categories I listed the 49ers have the 2nd highest % in the league.
Meh. Remember when the Broncos were 6-0 a few years back? It could always fall apart. Hopefully not for the 49ers in this division.
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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tampa bay thought we were gonna come out running and we came out passing on tthe opening 2 drives..we marched down the field and destroyed their morale. In the 2nd half, we put the dagger in them by marching down the field with a balanced, efficient drive. It was a brilliant gameplan.
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
To prove that when we come out passing we are successful,

1st half against Seattle
9/10, 82 yards - 16 points, 16-point lead

1st 3 drives against Dallas
10/13, 103 yards, 1 TD - 14 points, 14-point lead

1st 3 drives against Tampa Bay
6/7, 92 yards, 1 TD - 14 points, 11-point lead

Against Seattle and Dallas we took our foot off of the gas and coasted after we got leads, it worked against the Seahawks but our defense let us down against Dallas. In the games we have started slow passing the ball we finished strong, proven by the numbers I already posted.
Where is the first half against the Eagles, Bengals, and Lions?
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Where is the first half against the Eagles, Bengals, and Lions?
Those halves were full of penalties, poor pass protection, forcing the run when it wasn't there, and a few errand throws. There were a myriad of different problems there, which is actually kind of promising considering those were all wins; this team still has tons of room for improvement, and might have it's best ball still ahead.
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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Where is the first half against the Eagles, Bengals, and Lions?
He didn't play well in the first half of those games, I am not saying he did. But he did turn it on in the second half against the Eagles and Bengals and he did throw the game-winning touchdown pass against the Lions. The point is not that he has been great all season, just that he has been when he has needed to be.
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:13 PM    (permalink
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that blurb is full of conjecture and questionable observation. Smith had 199 yards passing in one quarter vs. the Eagles, and his 2nd half vs. Cinci was incredibly efficient (even without the TD that should've been), how is that not winning a game with his arm? I'd much rather be a balanced team anyways, this versatility means our gameplans can be a lot more unpredictable.

Let me ask you this, what NFC teams are scared of right now? I'm only scared of two: Dallas and Green Bay. Everyone else I'm fairly confident against. New Orleans is good, but we went toe-to-toe with them last year with an inferior roster and a much more inferior staff. Dallas is simplay matchup nightmare for our oline, and GB is obviously impossible to stop.

Right now, I believe Alex is not a long-term solution, but he can be very efficient. He is incredibly limited at what he does, but if he finds his rhythm he can be effective. I'm not going to underestimate any aspect of this team right now with this staff in charge, it's not worth worrying about given the improvement we've seen so far.

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Old 10-20-2011, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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that blurb is full of conjecture and questionable observation.
Agree. He coincidentally failed to mention that Peyton Manning was terrorizing the League. Donovan McNabb was making his case as a big-time passing threat. Let's not forget the Culpepper to Moss and Carter Connection. And... oh yeah... The Greatest Show on Turf!!! Heck, even Elvis Grbac threw for 4000 yards that season.

But yeah, he's right... there weren't any pass heavy offenses back then.
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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that blurb is full of conjecture and questionable observation. Smith had 199 yards passing in one quarter vs. the Eagles, and his 2nd half vs. Cinci was incredibly efficient (even without the TD that should've been), how is that not winning a game with his arm? I'd much rather be a balanced team anyways, this versatility means our gameplans can be a lot more unpredictable.

Let me ask you this, what NFC teams are scared of right now? I'm only scared of two: Dallas and Green Bay. Everyone else I'm fairly confident against. New Orleans is good, but we went toe-to-toe with them last year with an inferior roster and a much more inferior staff. Dallas is simplay matchup nightmare for our oline, and GB is obviously impossible to stop.

Right now, I believe Alex is not a long-term solution, but he can be very efficient. He is incredibly limited at what he does, but if he finds his rhythm he can be effective. I'm not going to underestimate any aspect of this team right now with this staff in charge, it's not worth worrying about given the improvement we've seen so far.
At this point I wouldn't say we are a lock against a few teams in the NFC. We killed the Buccaneers, but I could see them beating us a second time. They just beat the Saints, who I think could also beat us. Then there is Green Bay. The Giants, who knows. The Eagles could beat anyone if they get their head on straight. Dallas already beat us.

It's not like we've been dominating teams. We beat Seattle and Tampa Bay soundly. But one of those teams is terrible. We could have easily lost the Bengals game, Eagles game, and Lions game just like we did against the Cowboys. We're 5-1, but it's not the most impressive 5-1 I've ever seen come on now.
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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but it's not the most impressive 5-1 I've ever seen come on now.
I agree, and the Playoff/Super Bowl talk is insanely premature. However, only one team has been impressive every week and they were a 1 yard run away from a potential tie week one and only beat the Panthers by 1 TD.. You can argue wins and losses with every Division leader at this point.
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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I still say the passing game is much more a reflection of the O-Line, more than Alex. We couldn't block anyone in pre-season and I think Harbs and Roman came up with a plan not to get the lone veteran QB killed. Conserative game-plan with the intention of keeping Alex upright. Or is it just ironic that as soon as they start to play better, the offensive play-calling looks better and more diverse? And I believe evolving the passing game will only happen when Roman believes they can handle the protections and continue to improve on blitz pick-ups. I don't see a QB thats holding us back when I watch Alex. But some of the early play-calling was in direct corelation to the O-Line's effectiveness, or lack there of.

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Old 10-20-2011, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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I agree, and the Playoff/Super Bowl talk is insanely premature. However, only one team has been impressive every week and they were a 1 yard run away from a potential tie week one and only beat the Panthers by 1 TD.. You can argue wins and losses with every Division leader at this point.
I don't think playoff talk is premature, considering we still have 4 games to play against Arizona and the Rams. The only team left on our schedule that truly worries me is the Ravens. The two games I was most concerned about heading into the season(Cowboys and Eagles) we looked much better than I had hoped. I'd be very surprised if we didn't make the playoffs.
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Old 10-20-2011, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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Meh. Remember when the Broncos were 6-0 a few years back? It could always fall apart. Hopefully not for the 49ers in this division.
Difference is their strength of schedule was a lot tougher compared to ours. We still have 5 games left against divisional opponents that have a combined 3-12 record (which football outsiders calculates into the playoff odds). Injuries can change things but hard not to like those odds.....but then again I'm talking to Ness.

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Old 10-20-2011, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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It's not like we've been dominating teams. We beat Seattle and Tampa Bay soundly. But one of those teams is terrible. We could have easily lost the Bengals game, Eagles game, and Lions game just like we did against the Cowboys. We're 5-1, but it's not the most impressive 5-1 I've ever seen come on now.
I think the 2nd half of all 3 of the road games are telling in the team the 49ers are becoming:
49ers outscored Bengals 15-5 in the 2nd half
49ers outscored Eagles 21-3 in the 2nd half
49ers outscored Lions 13-9 in the 2nd half

Lions game doesn't stand out like the other two but it has been awhile since the 49ers have been able to put 2nd halves together like that.
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Old 10-20-2011, 09:13 PM    (permalink
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Difference is their strength of schedule was a lot tougher compared to ours. We still have 5 games left against divisional opponents that have a combined 3-12 record (which football outsiders calculates into the playoff odds). Injuries can change things but hard not to like those odds.....but then again I'm talking to Ness.
Yes, you're talking to a realist, not the online high-fiveing optimist.

Oh and way to take issue with the poster instead of the actual post. I've lost some respect for you.
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Old 10-20-2011, 09:45 PM    (permalink
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Yes, you're talking to a realist, not the online high-fiveing optimist.
Take a step back for a second and realize where some posters may come from in regards to their responses to you. I agree that attacking the poster and not the post, is wrong, but just be open-minded enough to consider both sides, as I'm always trying to do when I disagree with someone.

You find fault with "high-fiveing optimists" while claiming to be a realist...

I frown on over-confidence, as well (especially considering the early nature of the season, and failures of the past decade.) But judging from your posts in the Gameday threads, it would be easy to classify your opinions in the pessimist pile, before the realist pile...


Seattle
Quote:
That being said, with everything that has happened in recent years I wouldn't be surprised if we not only lose, but we blow it big time and get killed at home by a terrible Seahawks team.
Dallas
Quote:
I think Dallas is going to win though.
Cincinnati
Quote:
Dalton looks like he might actually be a good quarterback. I feel good about the 49ers bottling up Benson, but I get the feeling that Dalton and Green, both rookies, are going to school the 49ers secondary as we really don't have any playmakers back there.
Philadelphia
Quote:
I will say that I am worried that DeSean Jackson will burn us good. I can easily see Vick rebounding in this game and Philadelphia starting to roll.
Tampa Bay
Quote:
I just hope the 49ers don't get blown out. If that does happen I wouldn't be surprised though. It's been a sign of the times in recent years. A big letdown after things start to look up.
Detroit
Quote:
Yeah I really don't have a good feeling about this game. Detroit looks better and we're on the road.

See where they might feel the way they do?
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Old 10-20-2011, 09:47 PM    (permalink
dan77733
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If Dan can find a center of peace through 6 weeks, we should all be capable of finding one.
Exactly. And best of all, I have been able to watch every game thus far thanks to NFL Sunday Ticket live streaming on my PS3. :)
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Old 10-20-2011, 09:48 PM    (permalink
Ness
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I still say the passing game is much more a reflection of the O-Line, more than Alex. We couldn't block anyone in pre-season and I think Harbs and Roman came up with a plan not to get the lone veteran QB killed. Conserative game-plan with the intention of keeping Alex upright. Or is it just ironic that as soon as they start to play better, the offensive play-calling looks better and more diverse? And I believe evolving the passing game will only happen when Roman believes they can handle the protections and continue to improve on blitz pick-ups. I don't see a QB thats holding us back when I watch Alex. But some of the early play-calling was in direct corelation to the O-Line's effectiveness, or lack there of.
Well I'm sure the passing game will evolve a little bit as time progresses. Right now, they are truly minimizing Alex's impact on the game. I'm guessing they feel that either Alex can't do what they want the team to potentially do, or that he's just not ready. In other words, our current strategy is the best way we can possibly win. Time will tell if Alex is the man for this team. I'm a little disappointed that they aren't allowing Alex to throw over the middle that much. Either that or Alex just doesn't want to.
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Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.
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Old 10-20-2011, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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Exactly. And best of all, I have been able to watch every game thus far thanks to NFL Sunday Ticket live streaming on my PS3. :)
How is the quality for that so far ?
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Old 10-20-2011, 10:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
Take a step back for a second and realize where some posters may come from in regards to their responses to you. I agree that attacking the poster and not the post, is wrong, but just be open-minded enough to consider both sides, as I'm always trying to do when I disagree with someone.

You find fault with "high-fiveing optimists" while claiming to be a realist...

I frown on over-confidence, as well (especially considering the early nature of the season, and failures of the past decade.) But judging from your posts in the Gameday threads, it would be easy to classify your opinions in the pessimist pile, before the realist pile...


Seattle


Dallas


Cincinnati


Philadelphia


Tampa Bay


Detroit



See where they might feel the way they do?
I was saying the same kind of things in years past, and was actually correct about it. This team has been bad for a while, it's not out of the question that my confidence in this team is not very high. And I really won't feel comfortable until the division is truly out of reach and the 49ers win 10 games. Not to mention once we get a passing game. We're headed in the right direction, but my eyes are on the Vince Lombardi trophy and while this team is playing well, I'm not sure they are a Super Bowl contender yet. Oh and Desean Jackson did burn us.
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Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.
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Old 10-21-2011, 03:37 AM    (permalink
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Ness is definitely a pessimist, but the board would be pretty dull without him. We all can't be happy at 5-1.
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Old 10-21-2011, 03:56 AM    (permalink
WhatWouldBillyBajemaDo?
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Yes, you're talking to a realist, not the online high-fiveing optimist.

Oh and way to take issue with the poster instead of the actual post. I've lost some respect for you.
And calling me a "high fiving optimist" isn't a generalization of my opinions? Two wrongs don't make a right.

I do, however, apologize. It was meant as a friendly jab and I should have add a :D emoticon at the end. I don't want this drifting into Harabugh/ Jim Schwartz handshake territory. Not here to make enemies with anyone since I enjoy posting in this forum. My bad.

Last edited by WhatWouldBillyBajemaDo? : 10-21-2011 at 04:40 AM.
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