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Old 05-18-2009, 12:12 PM    (permalink
BeerBaron
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Default Top 6 teams who won't make the playoffs...

...after making them last year.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn...c.php?t=547766

Goes along with the other thread we have of the 6 teams who didn't make it last year but are most likely to this year. Given how popular the debate in that one because, I decided to throw this one up too. (It's actually a few days older, but I just didn't see it.)

This time around, we have:

Dolphins
Titans
Chargers
Giants
Vikes
Cardinals

I can agree with the Dolphins. Even their biggest fans will probably admit that last year was a least a little bit flukey...the rest of their division has gotten better, the Jets and Bills by making some moves and the Pats by getting Brady back. Though I think if the Dolphins are on here, the Falcons should be too for basically the same reasons.....both got a surge from FO and coaching moves last year and could suffer a little bit of a sophomore slump as they come back down to Earth.

The Titans....I can buy it. The Jags and Texans figure to be better and could push the Titans (and the Colts) a little bit. Plus they've lost Haynesworth, so that is probably could to hurt them.

Chargers...hmm. Maybe...they are easily the most talented team in a very weak division though. I think they get penciled in as the West winners by default and stay that way until one of the other teams takes it away from them.

The Giants I strongly disagree with though. I still feel as though they are the best team in their division, Plax or no Plax. They're going to have an absolutely sickening defensive front 7 that's just going to gnash everyone they face and wreak all sorts of havoc. They still have what figures to be a pretty damn good running game with Jacobs and their gritty o-line...and I think Eli will get the ball to the receivers they do still have. I strongly disagree with this one.

Vikings...I'd like to think it, heh. As long as they have AP they're going to be a threat. Their QB situation is still unsettled and they could lose the Williams wall for the first 4 games based on the Starcaps suspensions....if they get behind early in the season because of that, I think my Bears could get and stay enough ahead of them to win the division.

Cardinals......yeah, I can see it. Last year they got to dominate an incredibly weak division and rode Fitz through the playoffs. If Seattle gets healthy or the Niners pick it up a bit, either could beat out Arizona.

Any thoughts? Omissions? Disagreements with the ones listed?
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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I don't know how the Chargers don't make the playoffs. Cassel, Russell and Neckbeard would have to have Pro Bowl years for that to maybe happen. interesting though. some other team I do buy more so like the Phins,
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bored of education View Post
I don't know how the Chargers don't make the playoffs. Cassel, Russell and Neckbeard would have to have Pro Bowl years for that to maybe happen. interesting though. some other team I do buy more so like the Phins,
Even if those 3 are beastly (very, very doubtful imo) all of their defenses could still hold them back. Like I said, I think the Chargers are the winners by default unless one of the other teams surges and takes it away from them....the Chargers have too much talent to stink it up on their own.
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:26 PM    (permalink
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If I had to say six that won't be there next year it would be;

Miami Dolphins-played above talent levels last year, strength of schedule favoured them last year and Tom Brady is back in the division

Tennessee Titans-Haynesworth is literally a huge loss for them. Plus they play in a very tough division without a bona fide QB

Baltimore Ravens-Will be up there based on defense and a strong running attack but until their passing attack improves signficantly they will always have trouble winning games against teams like the Colts, Patriots etc

Minnesota Vikings-As above with the Ravens, until they can win through the air they will always be in danger of losing close games. Plus Green Bay and Chicago have gotten significantly better

Carolina Panthers-Play in a very tough division and will have to outscore both the Saints and Falcons twice a season. They could find that very tough to do

Arizona Cardinals-Purely based on the Superbowl curse and the fact that while Warner did lead them to the Superbowl he is old as hell. If he cant go the whole season next year will Leinart lead them to the playoffs? Also with the Boldin/Dockett situation, chemistry could be down
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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I take what Mike Florio says with a grain of salt. He has always talked down on the vikings so I am not surprised of them being on this list by him.
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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I can see the Phins not making it mostly because of the strength of the division. Titans same thing. The Giants might be a good call we are really going to see how good Eli really is unless of course Nicks has a Bowe type rookie season.


My major beef is the Chargers. If they don't make it who is in that division? The Chiefs have a shot. I see the the Broncos as a top 10 pick easy. The Raiders I can't see climbing up out of the gutter to win the division this season.
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Old 05-18-2009, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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I see why people are concerned about us losing plax, but we should have our best D since LT was still cracking skulls this season, we get osi back, we get kiwi back at DE weight, much better DT depth with Canty and Bernard, easily our best secondary since I've been a giants fan and while our LB corps. doesn't stand out and AP is fat Boley could have a very nice impact and between Kehl, Goff, Sintim and Clark we have good depth at the position. In my biased opinion I think our D improves more than our O suffers next season.
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Old 05-18-2009, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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Dude if the Bolts didn't miss the playoffs last year when the entire team exploded, they sure as hell aren't going to miss it this year.
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Old 05-18-2009, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Don't buy the Giants and Titans. They still have two of the best OL's in the NFL, and will both have strong rushing attacks. The Giants DEF should be great with the return of Umenyiora and bringing in Canty/Bernard/Boley, and their DL is the deepest in the league. You don't need a dominant WR to make the Playoffs. The Titans will miss having a player the caliber of Haynesworth, but the defense will still be good. They're returning all other defensive starters who accounted for 35.5 of their team total of 44 Sacks - 31.5 Sacks from the returning defensive linemen. Not to mention, I believe AH ranked in the Top 10 most rotated defensive linemen. Haynesworth wasn't the only All-Pro on that defense either.

I can buy the Dolphins, but they'll still be solid. They'll have the Patriots to deal with, and the possibility of Pennington getting injured is there.

The Vikings only because the Packers were so close in so many games last season, and I think the Pack will transfer to the 3-4 smoothly. The Bears also gained a franchise QB, and a good QB can do wonders for teams.

Chargers and Cardinals...not unless there's an injury at QB or something like that. Both should win their division. Lets give the Cards some credit. They won the NFC last season, and were an amazing catch by Santonio Holmes away from a Super Bowl title. Their offense should be great, their defense has studs at every unit in Dockett, Dansby, Wilson, and DRC, and they had a good draft.
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Old 05-18-2009, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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Giants will probably win the NFC East. That article is dumb.
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Old 05-18-2009, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons, imo, won't make the playoffs. I think they overachieved last year just like the Jets during Mangini's first year... IIRC the Jets went 10-6 in 2006 and 4-12 in 2007...
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Old 05-18-2009, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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vikes

titans

Dolphins

Panthers
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Old 05-18-2009, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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Ill do them 3-3
NFC:
(Playoff teams: NFCE: Giants,Eagles NFCS: Falcons,Saints NFCN: Bears, NFCW:Cardinals)
Vikings (misses playoffs due to SoS-tiebreaker)
Panthers (scedule is rediculous)
Redskins/Cowboys (tough scedule+good teams in division is tough break)

AFC:
Playoff team(AFCE: Pats AFCN:Steelers, Ravens AFCS:Colts,Titans AFCW:Chargers)
Dolphins: Tough scedule + year of film on the new team
Texans: Are gonna be pretty good but will just miss out.
Jets: Rookie QB can only take you so far (usually)
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanHope View Post
Don't buy the Giants and Titans. They still have two of the best OL's in the NFL, and will both have strong rushing attacks. The Giants DEF should be great with the return of Umenyiora and bringing in Canty/Bernard/Boley, and their DL is the deepest in the league. You don't need a dominant WR to make the Playoffs. The Titans will miss having a player the caliber of Haynesworth, but the defense will still be good. They're returning all other defensive starters who accounted for 35.5 of their team total of 44 Sacks - 31.5 Sacks from the returning defensive linemen. Not to mention, I believe AH ranked in the Top 10 most rotated defensive linemen. Haynesworth wasn't the only All-Pro on that defense either.

I can buy the Dolphins, but they'll still be solid. They'll have the Patriots to deal with, and the possibility of Pennington getting injured is there.

The Vikings only because the Packers were so close in so many games last season, and I think the Pack will transfer to the 3-4 smoothly. The Bears also gained a franchise QB, and a good QB can do wonders for teams.

Chargers and Cardinals...not unless there's an injury at QB or something like that. Both should win their division. Lets give the Cards some credit. They won the NFC last season, and were an amazing catch by Santonio Holmes away from a Super Bowl title. Their offense should be great, their defense has studs at every unit in Dockett, Dansby, Wilson, and DRC, and they had a good draft.
I think having Fat Al in there helped those guys be all pro and get all those sacks. I am not saying the Titans won't make the playoffs but Fat Al is a huge loss and I don't think the defense will have any where near the amount of sacks they had last year.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by wicket View Post
Ill do them 3-3
NFC:
(Playoff teams: NFCE: Giants,Eagles NFCS: Falcons,Saints NFCN: Bears, NFCW:Cardinals)
Vikings (misses playoffs due to SoS)
Panthers (scedule is rediculous)
Redskins/Cowboys (tough scedule+good teams in division is tough break)

AFC:
Playoff team(AFCE: Pats AFCN:Steelers, Ravens AFCS:Colts,Titans AFCW:Chargers)
Dolphins: Tough scedule + year of film on the new team
Texans: Are gonna be pretty good but will just miss out.
Jets: Rookie QB can only take you so far (usually)
The problem is that there is typically about a 50% turnover rate from one year to the next as to who misses the playoffs and you only have 3 teams that made it last year out this year. I'm sure thats possible but it goes against recent history.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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Vikings (misses playoffs due to SoS)
If the vikings miss the playoffs it wont because of Strength of Schedule. We have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. Our first five games are against teams that had top 10 picks this year. So if we miss the playoffs its because of Lack of QB play.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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If the vikings miss the playoffs it wont because of Strength of Schedule. We have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. Our first five games are against teams that had top 10 picks this year.

So if we miss the playoffs its because of Lack of QB play.
Losing the Williamses for 4 games also won't help. If you struggle and get down 1-3 or even 0-4 without them, and a team, say the Bears, jumps out to a quick start, it might be enough to do you in as well in addition to the QB issue.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:31 PM    (permalink
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i can see the vikes and dolphins missing the playoffs this year.
Vikings have such a talented team and to me, it is such a waste that they dont have a QB that can lead all that talent.

as for the dolphins, i feel they will come back down to earth. i dont see a terrible season as i feel they are well coached, but nothing to the extent they were last season.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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Losing the Williamses for 4 games also won't help. If you struggle and get down 1-3 or even 0-4 without them, and a team, say the Bears, jumps out to a quick start, it might be enough to do you in as well in addition to the QB issue.
I cant see us going 1-3 vs the Browns, Lions, Niners and Packers. At best I see us going 3-1 and at worse 2-2. Sure losing the Williamses will hurt us for those 4 games but I think the Back ups can come in and do decent enough for the vikings to succeed in those 4 games.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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My 6 teams would be:

Miami Dolphins: Last year, the Dolphins made playoffs. They did this through a combination of Bernard Pollard, players playing very well and a unknown offense that teams didn't know how to deal with. This year, Brady will be back and teams have had a year looking at the Wildcat. The Dolphins will struggle to replicate last years success.

Tennessee Titans: The Titans play in one of the toughest divisions in football. The Colts have improved, the Texans have improved and the Jaguars have improved. The Titans lost their best player and the focal point of their defense. In my opinion, the rest of their D-Line will suffer in his absence. I don't believe they will have a complete nose dive, but I feel they are 3rd in that division and 3rd mightn't be enough to make playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals: Teams don't always rebound well from a Superbowl loss. The Cardinals also play in a division that will almost certainly not get a Wild Card slot. So if either the Seahawks, or the 49ers, were to pip the Cardinals to the NFC West then the Cardinals will miss playoffs.

Carolina Panthers: The top three teams in the NFC South are all pretty close together. Any of the three of them could win the division, and given the difficult schedule NFC South teams face, there may only be one team from the South in the playoffs. Personally, I would put the Panthers 3rd in that division, so even if there is a Wild Card team there, I can't see it being the Panthers.

Atlanta Falcons: Again, there could be only one team from the NFC South in the playoffs and the Saints could always top the division. The Falcons may also be a one-hit wonder, but I can't see it. I feel the Falcons will get playoffs, but there is always a chance that they won't.

Baltimore Ravens: There is always a chance that the Ravens, if Cincinatti and Cleveland are better, and Pittsburgh continue their dominance in that division, then the Ravens could miss out on the Wild Card spot. I don't feel they have what is needed to win the AFC North and if they don't win enough games then a team like the Jets etc could pip them to the Wild Card.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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If the vikings miss the playoffs it wont because of Strength of Schedule. We have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. Our first five games are against teams that had top 10 picks this year. So if we miss the playoffs its because of Lack of QB play.
Sorry I wasnt clear there. The SoS will be the tiebreaker for the wild card and they will lose out because of that.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:45 PM    (permalink
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I cant see us going 1-3 vs the Browns, Lions, Niners and Packers. At best I see us going 3-1 and at worse 2-2. Sure losing the Williamses will hurt us for those 4 games but I think the Back ups can come in and do decent enough for the vikings to succeed in those 4 games.
The Lions played you tough both times last year, and they can really only get better from there. Odds are that Stafford won't be starting that early and Culpepper would give them a slightly better chance to win.

The 49ers could be a surprise team this year. Depending on how Hill plays, they could be a more dangerous team than you think right now.

The Browns are just two years removed from a very good season and it's possible that last year was just the aberration. Plus Mangini gave the Jets a huge boost his first year there and could do the same for the Browns who still have some talented players who just need to find themselves again like Quinn or Anderson, Edwards, and on their d-line.

And then theres the Packers who split their series with you last year and depending on how the 3-4 transition goes, could be a tough matchup.

I could see a 1-3 or even 0-4 if your QBs suck it up and the Williamses are out. Sure the backups could play great....but if they were great, odds are they wouldn't be backups, and that also kills your ability to rotate as effectively so they could easily get worn out as the games go along as many DT's do.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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I think having Fat Al in there helped those guys be all pro and get all those sacks. I am not saying the Titans won't make the playoffs but Fat Al is a huge loss and I don't think the defense will have any where near the amount of sacks they had last year.
The All-Pro's are in the secondary, with Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin. Plus, Pro Bowlers in Kyle Vanden Bosch, who struggled with a groin injury for over half of the season and missed 6 games, Keith Bulluck, and Chris Hope. So having them spread out helps compliment one another.

Haynesworth was the 2nd biggest reason for the success of the Titans DL last season. It was the depth that was the key factor, as that allowed all of the players to be rotated routinely. Without the quality players behind Haynesworth in Jason Jones and Kevin Vickerson, the defense would have looked like it did in '07 when AH was the difference between winning and losing, and AH wouldn't have been as effective as he gets winded easily and struggles with hamstring injuries. The Titans defeated the Steelers without AH or KVB playing, and the starting DL of Dave Ball/Tony Brown/Jason Jones/Jevon Kearse helped limit the Steelers RB's to 2.7 YPC and sacked Big Ben 5 times - 4 by DT's.

It's the system, and AH thrived in it. He's the best DT in the NFL, but it was because of the Titans that he was able to fulfill his potential. Watch the Redskins not get the same DT that was in Tennessee. They have too much money tied into him, so they'll play him 20% more than the Titans played him. That'll cause him to get winded easier, which will bring on effort issues, and increases the chances of an injury, which he won't play through because he's now making the money he wants. As a Vols and Titans fan, I hope the Washington coaches don't do this because an thriving Haynesworth in the NFC is fine and I'm still a fan on his.

The Titans will be fine. You don't replace the best DT in the NFL, but a 5-deep rotation of Tony Brown/Jason Jones/Kevin Vickerson/Jovan Haye/Sen'Derrick Marks helps stop the bleeding.

If anything, it's stopping the run that's the issue I'm most worried about.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Yea my mistake on the all pro thing. Anyway I wasn't saying they won't be ok I am just saying they won't get as many sacks or close to how many they had last year. Yes your line won't be torn apart from the loss but you will see the difference.
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Old 05-18-2009, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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ya the media hates the Cardinals we get it, but until proven otherwise we are the best team in the NFC
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