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Old 09-27-2009, 09:55 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Default Job security of NFL head coaches

Here is a list I made where I discuss how secure each coach's job is. Generally, the scale goes like this:

High - Will get fired unless they do a great job (make the playoffs, win a few more games than last year.)

Medium - Could get fired if they have a losing season (good teams) or really bomb it (teams that already sucked.)

Low - Most likely won't get fired - something drastic would need to happen over the rest of the year.

Nonexistent - These guys have won a Super Bowl, and recently. They won't get fired no matter what.

---

AFC EAST

Dick Jauron (Buffalo Bills) - High

I don't see the Bills keeping Dick around if he has another losing season. So far, he hasn't done much of anything. Needs at least eight wins.

Tony Sparano (Miami Dolphins) - Low

I think if he has a terrible season this year (which looks likely), he'll be on the hot seat, but he helped turn the team around last year.

Bill Belichick (New England Patriots) - Nonexistent

There's absolutely no way someone who's had as much success as Belichick gets fired anytime soon. He stays until he quits or retires.

Rex Ryan (New York Jets) - Low

Very low chance of him getting fired. The Jets look like a very good team this year and I expect them to win at least 10 or 11 games at this rate.

---

AFC NORTH

Jim Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens) - Low

The Ravens look very good so far, they did a nice job last year, and Harbaugh has got the offense on track. They don't even miss Rex Ryan much.

Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals) - Medium

Hasn't been fired yet, so the Bengals must like him. If they can pull off a winning season, he stays. If not, he should go. He's had enough chances.

Eric Mangini (Cleveland Browns) - High

There's some talk he doesn't even make it through the season. Browns have looked terrible, and Mangini is supposedly unpopular there.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers) - Nonexistent

Just won the Super Bowl, almost no chance he gets fired. The Steelers are also historically loyal to coaches, so he'll be there next year.

---

AFC SOUTH

Gary Kubiak (Houston Texans) - High

Frankly, I'll be surprised if he's there next year. I thought he'd do a good job in Houston but he's been disappointing so far. Needs a winning season.

Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts) - Low

Just got hired, so I doubt he gets fired this year. Still, a disappointing season (nine wins or less) could put him on the hot seat for next year.

Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville Jaguars) - High

He's been on the hot seat for a couple years, so this year he really needs to impress. The Jaguars need to win at least eight or nine games.

Jeff Fisher (Tennessee Titans) - Low

One of the most overrated coaches in the league in my opinion, but he'll keep his job. Hot seat if the Titans have a losing season after going 13-3.

---

AFC WEST

Josh McDaniels (Denver Broncos) - Low

Has looked very good in leading the Broncos to a 3-0 record, although he hasn't beaten any teams that were successful last year.

Todd Haley (Kansas City Chiefs) - Medium

Has rubbed some people the wrong way, and the Chiefs have looked awful. Still, he's new and will probably get another year to win.

Tom Cable (Oakland Raiders) - High

The Raiders are 1-2, JaMarcus Russell has looked awful, and I don't see good things this year. Al Davis is also historically impatient.

Norv Turner (San Diego Chargers) - Medium

I could see a losing season earning him a pink slip, but I doubt that happens. If they don't win the division, he's gone, but I expect 10+ wins.

---

NFC EAST

Wade Phillips (Dallas Cowboys) - High

Mildly surprised he wasn't fired last year. Next year, I think someone like Mike Shanahan will probably take over, since Wade hasn't cut it.

Tom Coughlin (New York Giants) - Nonexistent

One of the few (three) coaches in the league with a ring as a head coach. He won't get fired any time soon, and the Giants have looked good.

Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles) - Low

I don't expect he gets fired, although he hasn't won the big game yet. The Eagles would need to go 5-11 or 6-10 for him to be in danger.

Jim Zorn (Washington Redskins) - High

I've thought he was terrible from the beginning, and this week was a disgrace. He'll be gone by the end of the season unless the Skins turn it around.

---

NFC NORTH

Lovie Smith (Chicago Bears) - Medium

If the Bears win only six or seven games, he'll probably be gone. Now that he has a "franchise QB", he has no excuse for a losing season.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions) - Low

He's already won more games than the Lions did last year - an infinite percentage more. The Lions need to keep him around at least another year.

Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers) - Medium

I could see him getting fired if the Packers have another losing season, but they've looked good enough to win eight games or so this year.

Brad Childress (Minnesota Vikings) - Medium

Basically needs to win a playoff game or win 10+ games to keep his job, but I see that happening. The Vikings are just too talented this year.

---

NFC SOUTH

Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons) - Low

Smith has done a nice job with the Falcons. I don't expect he'll get fired anytime soon. A bad season could put him on the hot seat, though.

John Fox (Carolina Panthers) - High

Actually a big John Fox fan, but he'll really have to impress to keep his job. Jake Delhomme is going to facilitate his exit from Carolina.

Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints) - Low

The Saints have been playing lights-out, and so they'd need to completely collapse in order for Payton to lose his job. Brees won't let it happen.

Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - High

There's no excuse for the way the Buccaneers have been playing so far. Morris may be new, but he's been the worst of the new head coaches.

---

NFC WEST

Ken Whisenhunt (Arizona Cardinals) - Low

He'd really need to bomb this year to get consideration since the Cardinals made the Super Bowl. A bad season puts him on the hot seat.

Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis Rams) - Medium

I think he'll be fine eventually, but the Rams look terrible so far. Has to win at least 4 games to be reasonably safe, but I think he can do it.

Mike Singletary (San Francisco 49ers) - Low

Has done a nice job by most accounts as the 49ers' head coach, and I don't think he gets fired this year. He should be a long-term coach.

Jim Mora Jr. (Seattle Seahawks) - Medium

Probably safe this year, maybe not next year. The Seahawks have somewhat high expectations, so a 3-13 or 4-12 season could get him out.
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Old 09-27-2009, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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I think you got it backwards. Wouldn't they have high job security if they won't get fired no matter what?
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Old 09-27-2009, 09:59 PM    (permalink
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I think you got it backwards. Wouldn't they have high job security if they won't get fired no matter what?
Yeah, I know, I messed that up a bit, just because I did the list before I titled the topic. Oh well, it's not like it's really hard to decipher.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by RavenOfProphecy View Post
Yeah, I know, I messed that up a bit, just because I did the list before I titled the topic. Oh well, it's not like it's really hard to decipher.
Lol yeah, i just thought it looked a little weird.

Honestly, i think Mangini's still there next season, but you never know. And i'd have Brad Childress on HIGH (or low, depends how you wanna look at it). They've been calling for his head for two years now, and Favre is gone after this season, it's not like they need to worry about pissing him off.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MetSox17 View Post
Lol yeah, i just thought it looked a little weird.

Honestly, i think Mangini's still there next season, but you never know. And i'd have Brad Childress on HIGH (or low, depends how you wanna look at it). They've been calling for his head for two years now, and Favre is gone after this season, it's not like they need to worry about pissing him off.
I think Childress will make the playoffs, and most likely win a game (wild card round), so I think they bring him back. Anything less than a playoff appearance and he's gone, though. As far as Mangini, there are some rumors he gets fired IN-SEASON, which would be almost unheard of. Nonetheless, the Browns have looked about as bad as a team can look. Their offense is just as stagnant as it gets, and their defense isn't stopping anyone either.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:14 PM    (permalink
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I think Childress has a lot less job security then you think. I also! think that Wilf has a low job security because the fans are getting pissed with the decision making. But, Chilly is on the hot seat this year. He will be gone of the Vikings don't have 10+ wins and make the playoffs. And I also think that he will be fired even if they don't make it to the NFCCG...

Mangini will be given another year.

Any coach that is on the Raiders is on the hot seat. Whether or not he (or she?) does well. Al Davis is a crazy, bitchy old man, and that's why coaches don't last there.

Lovie smith will get his ass fired if he doesn't make it to the playoffs this year.

The Redskins coaches are always on the hot seat cause the Redskins will never be a franchise worthy of winning a superbowl. Sorry Skinzzz fans.

I don't think John Fox is on the hot seat as much as Jake Delhomme...
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:15 PM    (permalink
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After hearing about the things that went down with the Jets, I can see the Browns quitting on Mangini, if they haven't already. He's always done too much micro-managing, and always rubbed his players and management the wrong way. With a team with little talent like Cleveland, that could end badly.
I can also see the Chiefs quitting on Haley. If he goes Steve Spurrier with his quarterbacks and alienates his players, they could quit on him.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:15 PM    (permalink
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I wouldnt be suprised at all if Jim Zorn is fired tomorrow.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:16 PM    (permalink
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Childress SHOULD have to make it to the NFCCG to keep his job. I don't think that will be the case though. If we make the playoffs I think he stays, which is sad.

Leslie Frazier for head coach.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:34 PM    (permalink
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Childress SHOULD have to make it to the NFCCG to keep his job. I don't think that will be the case though. If we make the playoffs I think he stays, which is sad.

Leslie Frazier for head coach.
Frazier will be snagged by someone else this off-season if Childress doesn't get fired.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:45 PM    (permalink
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I'd agree with Del Rio being High, but I think with the way Wayne Weaver works and Del Rio's contract, he's more like Medium.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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I think Childress has a lot less job security then you think. I also! think that Wilf has a low job security because the fans are getting pissed with the decision making.
How the hell can the owner have low job security?
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:48 PM    (permalink
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Jeff Fisher should be under the nonexistent category for this season. I'll literally eat a boot if Jeff Fisher is fired after this season.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:51 PM    (permalink
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How the hell can the owner have low job security?
Low fan support, people ditch games, not enough revenue... There is a point where the NFL is all about business, and if the team isn't making money, than the fans will run the owner out of town. And if the team isn't making money itself, the shared revenue isn't going to do everything for the team. There is a time that when there is no fan support that maintenance cost and player/ coach salaries have to be paid out of pocket by the owner. I wouldn't wanna have to pay players out of my own pocket if I was an owner.
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Old 09-27-2009, 11:42 PM    (permalink
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Jeff Fisher should be under the nonexistent category for this season. I'll literally eat a boot if Jeff Fisher is fired after this season.
He said he only gave non-existent to coaches who won a Super Bowl.
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:15 AM    (permalink
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Tom Cable is in trouble. Al Davis will give JaMarcus Russell another chance and pin all the blame on Cable and his staff, that's what Al does.
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:19 AM    (permalink
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Jeff Fisher won't get fired this year. He's been around way too long (1994.) Still, he's only 128-104 with the Titans (133-110 incl. playoffs), and 83-69 (incl. playoffs) since losing in the Super Bowl, averaging 9 wins or so a season. He also hasn't won a playoff game in six years. Overrated if you ask me. Most teams that contend for titles wouldn't keep a coach around who hasn't won a playoff game since 2003. Could you see Norv Turner going 6 years without a win and keeping his job? I couldn't. Fisher can get you to the playoffs, but he hasn't shown the ability to win it all (at least since 1999.) Seems like the Titans are just treading water to me. I don't think anyone sees a championship for them in the near future. It's one of those situations where you're giving up a pretty good coach who can get you 9 or 10 wins a year for a shot at something more.

EDIT: Also, consider this disturbing fact - BRIAN BILLICK has a higher winning percentage than Fisher.
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:29 AM    (permalink
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Here is a small rundown of how I would see things...

AFC East
NE- Belichick(Nonexistant: Yeah he's going nowhere unless he leaves on his own)

NYJ- Ryan(Low: He won't be fired year 1 and Woody loves this guy's attitude. They are taking away the spotlight from NYG and are playing well)

MIA- Sparano(Low: Parcells likes to stick with his men usually and Sparano got them to the playoffs after a 1 win year. He isn't going anywhere at all)

BUF- Jauron(High: I think he will be gone unless BUF makes the playoffs. Being 9 wins won't even cut it IMO. Add an Owens debate here and there and we can be seeing a casualty here. They will probably bring in another head coach with experience that is with a team that I will get too soon)

AFC Central
PIT Tomlin(Nonexistant: PIT has insane trust in their coaches and he came off a SB win. He goes nowhere)

CIN Lewis(High: Has gotten a lot of years with the team as coach, and they have been in the media for much more bad than good so its do or die for Lewis. A playoff appearance keeps him around)

BAL Harbaugh(Low. Going nowhere, team is playing well and are shaping up to be very complete and look to be a force this year much like last year)

CLE Mangini(Medium: I think ownership showed how much they loved Mangini by making him the head coach just a week after being fired from NYJ. I think he gets 2 or 3 years to shape things up....Romeo got some years as well. It would take something pretty stupid to get Eric fired on the spot which I dont doubt....or a 1-15 or 2-14 mess)

AFC South
IND Caldwell(Low: New coach, team hasn't missed a beat so it seems and the players love him. Next)

JAX Del Rio(High: This is the next coach for BUF IMO. Del Rio isn't a terrible coach but he is put into a really awful spot. The team doesn't have a whole lot of direction and the attendance is dropping like flies. JAX will do what BAL/ATL/NYJ/DET did and have a rookie HC/QB and head to war in 2010. Each of the 4 teams have improved with doing this and it will give JAX hopes that they can repeat the same in 2010. They need something to spice things up in JAX and this is the only way to do, by drafting a big playmaker at QB and have a new face in.)

TEN Fisher(Low. He is the closest to nonexistent for the lows that is how safe he is. Even with a 4 win team, he will still be safe because he has done a lot for the franchise and has them usually contending every 1-2 years)

HOU Kubiak(Medium. I think he stays until next year just because of the 2 .500 seasons he has had this team get and he has really shaped up the team to do stuff. Its a matter of if he can get them to the postseason and have them be a tough out there or not which is the ? I think he gets 1 more year)

AFC West

SD Turner(Low. Came off an AFC Champ game last year, biggest thing done in years and SD usually competes every year so I cannot see why Norv gets the axe)

KC Haley(Low. Scott Pioli knows and understands that head coach stability needs to stay in order for a winning formula and it would take Haley to do something very outrageous or insulting towards Pioli for him to be let go. Haley won't get the axe so quickly)

OAK Cable(Medium. He really shouldn't be fired but you can never trust Al Davis at all. I think Cable should stick around because he got them to compete last year and outside of today's game they have been competitive too. Those DEN and TB wins that helped get Al Davis nemesis Shanahan and Gruden out is a huge selling point towards Davis lets not forget)

DEN McDaniels(Low: He did some crazy things in the offseason and very unorthodox stuff like giving away your franchise QB, giving up your 1st pick in 2010 and trying to exile your big playmaker but he is getting wins and having them compete so no)

NFC East

PHI Reid(Medium. He is the very rare occasion where he will be safe regardless of where PHI does unless its an AWFUL record but could possibly quit. He has his crazy sons on his mind, the loss of a great friend in Jim Johnson on his mind, the potential McNabb/Kolb/Vick QB debates on his mind among other stuff. He could stay if he wants to but would you be shocked if he decided to take a break?)

WSH Zorn(High. No one is Horny for Zorny and Snyder is known for making big time splashes. It would take multiple playoff wins for Zorn to be kept much like for the next coach here.....)

DAL Phillips(High. Like Zorn it will take not one but TWO playoff wins and a competitive NFC Champ game for Jerry to consider keeping Wade. Good players coach but when you coach "Americas team" you have to be a succeeding one too, especially come playoff time)

NYG Coughlin(Nonexistant. He won a SB, defied the odds and is a fav to the Mara family. He goes nowhere without question)

NFC North

DET Schwartz(Low: He already has the team doing strides from last year. DET is in no spot for 3 head coaching changes in 3 years)

MIN Childress(High: He needs a playoff win for the job to be safe. Maybe more but I think just 1 playoff win keeps his job. Anything less and he is gone. Vikings are close to being fully complete and if Wulf thinks he needs a head coach capable of managing this talent, he will get one.)

GB McCarthy(Low. He needs to have a good year to be safe from next year's hot seat but I can't see why he'd be fired for this year. Had the squad 1-2 plays away from a SB appearance 2 years back)

CHI Smith(Medium. He is in the Shanahan/Gruden area 2 years ago where both men are living off a past SB win or appearance for Lovie's case and if CHI doesn't show strides this year, he will be put upon the hot seat like no tomorrow.)

NFC South

CAR Fox(High. I think he could be a goner if CAR doesn't remake the playoffs and put on a fight unlike last year. Its tough since he has a SB spot but he is where Lovie could be in 2010. I think CAR will do what JAX does and go the rookie HC/rookie QB spot only with no 1st round pick in 2010, unless they deal up they will invest a 2nd or 3rd round pick for one and have the QB learn under Delhomme and then come in if Jake is hurt or bad at any point in 2010.)

TB Morris(Low. Hes a rook coach and TB higher ups love him enough to make him the youngest coach after canning a guy who brought them a SB. Why would he be gone after year 1? They made him coach to protect him from getting a future HC job elsewhere)

ATL Smith(Low. He had a successful year and could have ATL do something they have never done and that's to have back to back .500 or over years. Had them in the playoffs last year, why would he go?)

NO Payton(Low. Got them to the NFC title game before, had the team doing things and gain their respect from the fans after a devastation like Hurricane Katrina and is doing great things this year.)

NFC West

SF Singletary(Low. Gets rave reviews from everywhere for his old school mentality and is getting this team who's been bad for a while under the Nolan and Erickson years into believing him.)

ARI Whisenhunt(Low. Got a perennial loser into the SB and that alone should be enough to keep his job under wraps for years to come. No joke)

STL Spags(Low: Rookie head coach who is under a rough situation after inheriting the crapola Linehan left behind. Give him some time, he has good defense past with NYG)

SEA Mora Jr(Low: Has a decent to good track record with ATL and its his 1st year. Got a ringing endorsement from Holmgren and is a Washington kid. He won't be fired right away unless the team just stinks it up as in 2-3 wins)
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:03 AM    (permalink
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Jeff Fisher won't get fired this year. He's been around way too long (1994.) Still, he's only 128-104 with the Titans (133-110 incl. playoffs), and 83-69 (incl. playoffs) since losing in the Super Bowl, averaging 9 wins or so a season. He also hasn't won a playoff game in six years. Overrated if you ask me. Most teams that contend for titles wouldn't keep a coach around who hasn't won a playoff game since 2003. Could you see Norv Turner going 6 years without a win and keeping his job? I couldn't. Fisher can get you to the playoffs, but he hasn't shown the ability to win it all (at least since 1999.) Seems like the Titans are just treading water to me. I don't think anyone sees a championship for them in the near future. It's one of those situations where you're giving up a pretty good coach who can get you 9 or 10 wins a year for a shot at something more.

EDIT: Also, consider this disturbing fact - BRIAN BILLICK has a higher winning percentage than Fisher.
Still, he had two years that were absolute wastes, 2004 when all his veterans became injured and then the cap purging of 2005. Jeff Fisher has faced this intensity though before, in 2001 when he started 1-4 and wound up 11-5 and in the AFC title game. The only way he isn't the Titans head coach is when he says I resign or retires. Its either one or the other, people either say he is overrated (I haven't heard that one) or underrated (lots of talking heads love his coaching style).
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:08 AM    (permalink
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I'm almost certain that Marvin Lewis will be here for the duration of his contract. He's good with the community, the teams are decent by Bengals standards (not the highest standards I know) and most importantly... Mike Brown runs the Bengals as purely a business, he does what is profitable. To pay a coach after he is fired is not very profitable. Marvin Lewis is pretty secure in job security, any Bengals fan will tell you this whether they want him to stay around or not.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:09 AM    (permalink
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Fisher has been around way too long to get fired this year. It will take a REALLY ****** season for him to get fired IMO.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:34 AM    (permalink
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I can't see Fox sticking around, which is a shame, since he can be a very good coach.

Right now, Carolina is 0-2 with a good chance of heading into the bye at 0-3. New Orleans is playing great football and the Panthers still get to face a lot of solid contending teams down the stretch.

Something else is going on within the organization too, Ken Flajole left for greener pastures as the DC in St Louis but Sal Sunsieri (former DL coach) turned down the DC position in Carolina as did Mike Trgovac who left for Green bay, Mike McCoy bolted to Denver and other members of the smaller coaching areas left, despite being offered extensions. Earlier this year as well two high level executives in the front office decided to dance out the door just before the season too.

Right now the team has no discernible future at quarterback and although the offensive staff is stocked, both sides of the ball have talent and youth, but the trading of our first rounder next year for a talent that even though I'm very high on, wasn't worth trading away a huge centre piece of next years draft.

I can forsee a massive shake up at the end of this season. At the end of the day, Delhomme is going to be solid enough this year, but couple the schedule with the mistakes he's likely to make and the injuries already piling up on a defense changing schemes and it's a recipe for disaster.

I can see Fox being fired, and him heading somewhere as a head coach. I still like the rumors about Cowher being interested in returning to coach, and I'd get a huge boner if the Panthers went after either him or Shanahan, but I don't think it'll be a Fox lead team next year unless Carolina starts winning games and soon.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:34 AM    (permalink
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Have you seen Tampa's roster? No way Morris gets fired.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:34 AM    (permalink
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Even if the Titans go 0-16, i still think Fisher would stay there.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:49 AM    (permalink
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If Fisher were to be let go of, he'd be in Dallas the next day. He'd be a huge commodity.

In my opinion, Fisher has done an amazing job coaching the Titans over the past few seasons. Especially when you think about the Titans wasting a 6th overall pick on PacMan Jones and having a 3rd overall pick on the sideline in Vince Young (both were back-to-back Drafts; 2005 and 2006). The fact that he's so successful considering the inconsistency at the QB position is a testament to his ability as well. He just doesn't have a ring, which labels him with the stigma of being a great regular season coach and mediocre postseason coach.

Nevertheless, he's the best coach in the history of the Titans/Oilers franchise, and holds high favor with owner Bud Adams. The Nashville Stache ain't goin' anywhere.
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