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Old 02-27-2015, 08:10 PM    (permalink
BThorn86
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Default TFE Scouting Report - Bud Dupree

TFE's NFL Draft Lead writer Brandon Thorn breaks down one of the Combine's biggest winners for the 2015 NFL Draft with an in-depth, NFL style scouting report. Feedback is very much appreciated!


Summary:

Alvin helped lead his high school to a state championship in basketball while starring as a tight end/defensive end on the football team. He came to Kentucky as a tight end before moving primarily to the defensive side of the ball as a freshman. Dupree (senior) is a three year starter with experience both as a DE in a 4-3 scheme as well as an OLB in a 3-4 scheme. He finished his career with 247 total tackles, 145 solo, 37 TFL, 23.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 INT, and 2 blocked kicks. His senior season saw him finish with 74 total tackles, 45 solo, 12.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT (pick-6), and a blocked kick. Dupree has lined up on both the left and right sides as well as in a 2pt & 3pt stance. When standing up on the edge he routinely will slide out above a slot receiver and play in space.

Dupree’s body type has large frame with thick, evenly dispersed muscle throughout his upper and lower halves including extremely defined triceps, giving his arms a rare thickness to them. His playing weight was listed at 264 before coming to the Combine at 269. He has long enough arms to play DE in the NFL but is better suited for a 34 OLB or a 43 SLB, capable of sliding down to DE on 3rd downs. Dupree has exceptional burst out of his stance, capable of beating OTs to the edge and knifing through the interior for TFLs. He is a hyper-active pass rusher who wins with sheer speed and effort. He consistently keeps his feet firing to the QB and through contact, getting a lot of sacks with effort. When he gets pushed past the QB on the edge he continues his pursuit, often catching them from behind or outside of the pocket. He doesn’t show a variety of pass rush moves and needs to develop an inside counter. He relies too much on his speed off the edge. He does possess a nice straight arm move due to a strong lockout and the ability to sink his hips, bend his ankles, and close the gap to the QB but his hand usage isn’t great and will need work developing better hand placement. Dupree is an average run defender who struggles with technique. He often exposes his chest and is late to shed, usually due to watching the ball too long before disengaging. His leverage is inconsistent but he shows the ability to fire low and win at the POA at times. He excels in pursuit, showing the balance/coordination with trash around his feet and he consistently washes cut blocks down without losing hardly any speed. Off the edge in the run game he has the strength in his lockout to set the edge but will need work on filling on down blocks to weak side runs. He often takes poor angles either by not filling and floating down the LOS, getting washed out or by filling too aggressively and turning his shoulders, leaving him susceptible to cutbacks. Dupree has extensive experience dropping in coverage and in space, displaying fluidity to click/close on the ball exceptionally well due to rare explosion in his hips and legs. He makes a lot of tackles in backside pursuit, showcasing outstanding range, and he meets ballcarriers with aggression/heavy hands.

Dupree would not be a very good fit as a 43 DE due to his aforementioned rawness against the run but rather looks like a plug and play 34 OLB. A role he hasn’t played in but I think he could excel is as a 43 SLB. His experience in space, speed, and athleticism would serve him well tracking down the ball and covering TEs and he could slide down to DE on 3rd downs as an impactful edge rusher. If he can improve his technical flaws versus power he has all the ability to be a dynamic, every down playmaker at the next level.

Value – Top 15
Projection – Top 15
Pro Comp – Ahmad Brooks
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Last edited by Scott Wright : 02-28-2015 at 09:49 PM.
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Old 02-28-2015, 06:52 AM    (permalink
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Alvin Dupree put up the best explosive power numbers since 2005. Guys who test elite in these categories include Justin Houston, Shawn Merriman, Cam Wake, Lamar Woodley, Brian Orakpo, Connor Barwin, and Jamie Collins. The only "busts" from this group are Dontay Moch and Cornelius Washington. FWIW, I still hold out hope for Washington.

Dupree is a guy I see having Collins ability in coverage and a faster L. Woodley's ability as a pass rusher. Extremely versatile, he played his first two seasons at Kentucky as a LB. I have him as a top-10 guy.
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Old 02-28-2015, 07:59 AM    (permalink
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Dupree is my guy in this draft. He's the guy I'm hanging my hat and going out on the limb for. Pre-combine, I had him as my #1 edge rusher in this class and the #5 overall prospect in this draft. Obviously, nothing at the combine should change that as he showed everything I figured he would show at the various events.

Most people have him as the 5th edge guy behind Gregory, Fowler, Beasley, and Ray in some order. But of this group, he's biggest, most athletic, and versatile. Ray has the elite first step, but Dupree is 2nd quickest off the ball. Gregory has the best length of this group, but Dupree is 2nd. Doesn't have the size limitations of Beasley, Ray and Gregory.

I agree that he struggles to shed blocks, especially when lined up over a blocker instead of outside shoulder. But to me, that's nothing a little coaching can't drastically help. I think he was slightly misused at UK. Wasn't called on to rush the passer quite enough, but I think at the next level you can put him at the Joker position and let him be Aldon Smith (not a comparison necessarily, but its not NOT a comparison :).
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Old 02-28-2015, 08:15 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by E_Bird View Post
Dupree is a guy I see having Collins ability in coverage and a faster L. Woodley's ability as a pass rusher. Extremely versatile, he played his first two seasons at Kentucky as a LB. I have him as a top-10 guy.
I disagree, Collins is in a different category in terms of coverage ability. He even played some safety in college. Dupree has very nice measurables and can hold his own in zone coverage but I wouldn't want him shadowing somebody in man coverage.

Also, needs work on keeping him pad level down, he gets stuffed and stood up a little to much for a guy who is 270lbs. Woodley plays with more thump, while Bud uses his athleticism to win against the run and pass rush.
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Old 02-28-2015, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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Nothing wrong with being a fan of Dupree's athleticism, but his game tape tells a different story.

He doesn't have great instincts as a pass rusher or defender in general, and IMO Dupree only made plays st UK because he's a superior athlete.

Anthony Barr only played DE/LBer for 2 years for UCLA, but he's got natural pass rush ability. Dupree doesn't.

That's why I think he'd be a much more impactful all around LBer in the pros, dropping into coverage and playing the run.

Let him use all that speed and size and pursuit to chase down ballcarriers....from ILB.
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Old 02-28-2015, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Nothing wrong with being a fan of Dupree's athleticism, but his game tape tells a different story.

He doesn't have great instincts as a pass rusher or defender in general, and IMO Dupree only made plays st UK because he's a superior athlete.

Anthony Barr only played DE/LBer for 2 years for UCLA, but he's got natural pass rush ability. Dupree doesn't.

That's why I think he'd be a much more impactful all around LBer in the pros, dropping into coverage and playing the run.

Let him use all that speed and size and pursuit to chase down ballcarriers....from ILB.
He may not be a pure pass rusher, but his athletic ability will naturally generate pressure once he learns leverage and improves his hand fighting. I agree that his instincts are not great and that is why he would be best as a down lineman with simplified gap assignments. He would be the perfect SDE for the Cowboys IMO, he can simply make a push up field and pursuit the ball (which by far is the best aspect of his game, chasing in space).

As a LB, whether it be on the outside of a 3-4 or inside as a thumper, you are asking him to read multiple levels of the offense. He has to recognize run vs pass, if its pass he has to make sure the depth on his drop is right for his assignment and he is able to carry players while reading the QB.

Against the run he already has some issues with letting linemen climb to the second level and wall him off. Also, would have issues especially on the inside against teams running zone schemes imo. Not sure he has the ability to read and redirect against runners using cut back lanes.
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Old 02-28-2015, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Nothing wrong with being a fan of Dupree's athleticism, but his game tape tells a different story.

He doesn't have great instincts as a pass rusher or defender in general, and IMO Dupree only made plays st UK because he's a superior athlete.

Anthony Barr only played DE/LBer for 2 years for UCLA, but he's got natural pass rush ability. Dupree doesn't.

That's why I think he'd be a much more impactful all around LBer in the pros, dropping into coverage and playing the run.

Let him use all that speed and size and pursuit to chase down ballcarriers....from ILB.
What is a great pass rushing instinct? What makes one a "natural" pass rusher? Can you not be a natural and be a good pass rusher? Honest questions.
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Old 02-28-2015, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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Not sure how having too little instincts to be an edge player would make someone a better fit in the middle.
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Old 02-28-2015, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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Dupree is my guy in this draft. He's the guy I'm hanging my hat and going out on the limb for. Pre-combine, I had him as my #1 edge rusher in this class and the #5 overall prospect in this draft. Obviously, nothing at the combine should change that as he showed everything I figured he would show at the various events.

Most people have him as the 5th edge guy behind Gregory, Fowler, Beasley, and Ray in some order. But of this group, he's biggest, most athletic, and versatile. Ray has the elite first step, but Dupree is 2nd quickest off the ball. Gregory has the best length of this group, but Dupree is 2nd. Doesn't have the size limitations of Beasley, Ray and Gregory.

I agree that he struggles to shed blocks, especially when lined up over a blocker instead of outside shoulder. But to me, that's nothing a little coaching can't drastically help. I think he was slightly misused at UK. Wasn't called on to rush the passer quite enough, but I think at the next level you can put him at the Joker position and let him be Aldon Smith (not a comparison necessarily, but its not NOT a comparison :).
Lots I agree on. I think he was a little misused as well. Right now I have him graded the same as Ray & Gregory with Fowler just below them. About to start on Beasley today.
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Old 02-28-2015, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Alvin Dupree put up the best explosive power numbers since 2005. Guys who test elite in these categories include Justin Houston, Shawn Merriman, Cam Wake, Lamar Woodley, Brian Orakpo, Connor Barwin, and Jamie Collins. The only "busts" from this group are Dontay Moch and Cornelius Washington. FWIW, I still hold out hope for Washington.

Dupree is a guy I see having Collins ability in coverage and a faster L. Woodley's ability as a pass rusher. Extremely versatile, he played his first two seasons at Kentucky as a LB. I have him as a top-10 guy.
Yeah, don't see the Collins comp in coverage. Although I do think he could pull off SLB in a 4-3 while sliding down on 3rd downs, I don't see him being as elite as Collins, but not far off either. Dupree's explosiveness for 269 pounds alone is something so rare it will get a ton of attention (coaching) & I think he will be given tons of chances to shine because of how special his size/speed combo is. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if he was the top edge guy taken.
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Old 02-28-2015, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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What is a great pass rushing instinct? What makes one a "natural" pass rusher? Can you not be a natural and be a good pass rusher? Honest questions.
In another thread you listed Bud Dupree as the top pass rusher in this class. I don't know where that opinion comes from other than projection based on his athletic toolbox.

Nothing he's shown on film suggests he'll ever be an elite pass rusher in the NFL.

A 'natural' pass rusher IMO is a player who on the college level already plays with leverage, effective hand usage to slip blocks and control OTs along with good arm extension and lateral movement to get around an OT's setup.

Anthony Barr showed enough of these skills at UCLA with minimal coaching at the position. He just had a knack for being able to play off the push of an OT and redirect his pass rush using his length and hands.

At the college level if you see an athlete like Dupree being asked to drop more on passing downs than rush the QB, it's because after dozens of hours of team practice in the spring and fall, X-player has demonstrated he's not that great at rushing the QB.

So coaches try to find other ways to take advantage of that player's athletic ability.

Urlacher was scouted as an OLBer. When the Bears drafted him and got him into camp, it became apparent early on although he was 6'4/250# and ran a 4.49 predraft, Urlacher wasn't a pass rusher.

So Lovie Smith put him in the middle of his Tampa 2 because of Urlacher's speed and coverage ability, and the rest is history.


Numbers alone don't mean you can be an impact edge rusher in the NFL.
Too many times when I see Dupree rush, he tries to go through an OT. That's not going to work in the pros.

If you put Dupree in the middle of a 34 D, you highlight the things he actually does well, which are zone coverage drops and chasing down ballcarriers.

I see a bit more athletic Donta Hightower in Dupree, another guy many thought would develop into an edge rusher at Alabama, but found out his best position was inside.
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Old 02-28-2015, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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I see a bit more athletic Donta Hightower in Dupree, another guy many thought would develop into an edge rusher at Alabama, but found out his best position was inside.
Hightower is a guy that plays with excellent leverage and uses his size to his advantage. He was also groomed in a thumper role as his time with Alabama and really understands assignments. His ability to read and react correctly to plays allow him to be successful in the league, because he doesn't have elite range.

Bud is exactly the opposite, he plays high and has difficulty disengaging once locked into a phone booth. He has played on the outside of the 3-4 as a pass rusher and a down lineman. He has little experience if any diagnosing plays other then simple drops in coverage and pursuit of the ball. He needs to be moving forward to be effective.

IMO, he needs to go to a 4-3 team that can afford him time to grow as a pass rusher. He has never had to use proper technique to be effective, it doesn't mean he can't learn it. There is tape that shows he can bend around tackles and to me that is the true tell tale whether you can pass rush or not. You can learn to sharpen the corner and correct your path to the qb, can learn how to use your hands better and learn to keep your pad level down.

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Old 02-28-2015, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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In another thread you listed Bud Dupree as the top pass rusher in this class. I don't know where that opinion comes from other than projection based on his athletic toolbox.

Nothing he's shown on film suggests he'll ever be an elite pass rusher in the NFL.

A 'natural' pass rusher IMO is a player who on the college level already plays with leverage, effective hand usage to slip blocks and control OTs along with good arm extension and lateral movement to get around an OT's setup.
Those "natural" skills sound like all things that could be taught. In fact, the NFL sack leader, Justin Houston's pre-draft scouting report reads:

Weaknesses
Could be more consistent with his hands while pass rushing and against the run when disengaging. Needs to watch his pad level at times and can get washed out. Awareness is still developing when finding the football. Inconsistent effort against the run. Potential liability in man coverage.


There's plenty to like on tape for Dupree. He does have the athletic tools and if he was able to do what he did without being "natural", then what hope do Randy Gregory (7 sacks) and Dante Fowler (8.5 sacks), who are either less productive or slightly more productive than Dupree, have?

Quote:
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Anthony Barr showed enough of these skills at UCLA with minimal coaching at the position. He just had a knack for being able to play off the push of an OT and redirect his pass rush using his length and hands.

At the college level if you see an athlete like Dupree being asked to drop more on passing downs than rush the QB, it's because after dozens of hours of team practice in the spring and fall, X-player has demonstrated he's not that great at rushing the QB.

So coaches try to find other ways to take advantage of that player's athletic ability.

Urlacher was scouted as an OLBer. When the Bears drafted him and got him into camp, it became apparent early on although he was 6'4/250# and ran a 4.49 predraft, Urlacher wasn't a pass rusher.

So Lovie Smith put him in the middle of his Tampa 2 because of Urlacher's speed and coverage ability, and the rest is history.


Numbers alone don't mean you can be an impact edge rusher in the NFL.
Too many times when I see Dupree rush, he tries to go through an OT. That's not going to work in the pros.

If you put Dupree in the middle of a 34 D, you highlight the things he actually does well, which are zone coverage drops and chasing down ballcarriers.

I see a bit more athletic Donta Hightower in Dupree, another guy many thought would develop into an edge rusher at Alabama, but found out his best position was inside.
Not sure the Anthony Barr relevance. Barr isn't in a pass rushing role in the NFL. He's a SLB, who had 4 sacks this year.

And as a Bears fan, I will point out you are WAY off base on Urlacher. He had 8 sacks as a rookie, and five 5 sack seasons from the Mike position. He was also a 4 time probowler and 2 time All Pro at MLB BEFORE Lovie Smith became his coach. If Urlacher could have played any position he wanted and been great.

Also, I don't think Dupree is that great in coverage. He just kinda drops in his assigned space and doesn't look all that natural doing so. And I agree with the previous post....if he doesn't have instincts outside, why would you move him inside?
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Old 02-28-2015, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Dupree made all SEC in 2012 as a LB, so he has that versatility - 12.5 TFL, 91 tackles, 6.5 sacks.

I'm with rawdawg on Dupree. I have him right there with Beasley as the two best edge guys in the class. Ray and Gregory are in that mix as well. I'm hoping both can compete at their Pro Days. Not interested in the 40 as much as Gregory's shuttles and 3-cone and Ray's vert and broad. Fowler isn't in the mix (for me) at this point.

But Dupree is a more explosive athlete than Shawn Merriman was (roids and all). Once he gets NFL coaching, he's going to take off.
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Old 02-28-2015, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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Bud Dupree:

Height: 6040
Weight: 269
40 Yrd Dash: 4.56
20 Yrd Dash: 2.65
10 Yrd Dash: 1.60
Vertical Jump: 42
Broad Jump: 11'06"

Jadeveon Clowney:

Height: 6052
Weight: 266
40 Yrd Dash: 4.51
20 Yrd Dash: 2.58
10 Yrd Dash: 1.59
Vertical Jump: 37 1/2
Broad Jump: 10'04"

Edit: obviously, Clowney was considerably longer - 34 3/4" arms; Dupree's are only 32 5/8"

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Old 02-28-2015, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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Dupree made all SEC in 2012 as a LB, so he has that versatility - 12.5 TFL, 91 tackles, 6.5 sacks.

I'm with rawdawg on Dupree. I have him right there with Beasley as the two best edge guys in the class. Ray and Gregory are in that mix as well. I'm hoping both can compete at their Pro Days. Not interested in the 40 as much as Gregory's shuttles and 3-cone and Ray's vert and broad. Fowler isn't in the mix (for me) at this point.

But Dupree is a more explosive athlete than Shawn Merriman was (roids and all). Once he gets NFL coaching, he's going to take off.
Mark me down as a Dupre guy as well, but I'm not taking anything away from the other LBers who look very solid to me, but Dupre could end up being the best.

Playing for Kentucky where he was the only threat, ment most teams planned specifically against him and I suspect he got a lot of double teaming. Most of the others played with talent, that left more open space for them to operate in. He has the looks of a beast to me.
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Old 02-28-2015, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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Mark me down as a Dupre guy as well, but I'm not taking anything away from the other LBers who look very solid to me, but Dupre could end up being the best.

Playing for Kentucky where he was the only threat, ment most teams planned specifically against him and I suspect he got a lot of double teaming. Most of the others played with talent, that left more open space for them to operate in. He has the looks of a beast to me.
He played with Za'Darius Smith, who is a solid 3rd round guy on the other edge.
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Old 02-28-2015, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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To echo many things that have already been stated, Dupree is a physical freak. His film isn't wowing and technique-wise he has several aspects to work on, but he can teach someone to be as god gifted as he is. Randy Gregory and Shane Ray get much of the attention but I feel they're limited in scheme versatility, and they don't honestly wow me. It's surprising that Dupree and Vic Beasley's names aren't more commonly in the conversation with Gregory and Ray; Beasley sticks out non-stop on film and Dupree's rare athleticism has already been discussed.

Every front office and coaching staff has egos and those egos believe that they can mold players into something great. All 32 teams would love to have the talents of a player like Dupree and that'll push him up the board. Atlanta seems like a really good fit at 8.
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Old 02-28-2015, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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Beasley is pretty special. The only thing that had worried me was if he wasn't big enough, but at 246 he should find a role somewhere in the neighborhood of Bruce Irvin and Von Miller. Was just watching Randy Gregory the other day and thought he looked surprisingly strong and stout for what he weighs, and also had some nice violence to him. No Berkevious Mingo here. Trying to think of who Dupree compares to, though. Nothing really comes to mind. He looks like a scaled-up version of a smaller player. Really smooth movements. It's not that his playing speed is slow so much as it is fluid and controlled. Get-off at the snap is really good, and I think he plays more physically than Clowney and some other workout-warrior edge players we've seen recently. Think he is more scheme-diverse than Gregory, who is too small to be a base end. Dupree could play in a 3-4 or a 4-3. I seem to notice with Dupree that he sometimes seems to wait for plays to come to him rather than fighting to the ball, but that could also have to do with his defensive assignment. Also needs to develop a better repertoire of pass rushing moves; ridden out of plays too easily for his physical gifts and an effective counter move would make him much more effective. But that's not something I think should affect his stock greatly.
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Old 02-28-2015, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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I seem to notice with Dupree that he sometimes seems to wait for plays to come to him rather than fighting to the ball, but that could also have to do with his defensive assignment. Also needs to develop a better repertoire of pass rushing moves; ridden out of plays too easily for his physical gifts and an effective counter move would make him much more effective. But that's not something I think should affect his stock greatly.
It is very strange to me, there is film that shows him locate the ball and use his athleticism and pursuit all the way across the field. Then you see some snaps that he comes off this ball and gets locked into a wrestling match with a lineman, completely loosing sight of what's going on around him.

I'm not sure if that is a result of him being gassed and taking plays off or simply not having a great understanding of how to disengage. With his athletic skill set he shouldn't get himself caught in those situations as much as he does. This issue also snow balls from the fact that he plays too tall and doesn't generate enough power because he loses the leverage battle.
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Old 02-28-2015, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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It is very strange to me, there is film that shows him locate the ball and use his athleticism and pursuit all the way across the field. Then you see some snaps that he comes off this ball and gets locked into a wrestling match with a lineman, completely loosing sight of what's going on around him.

I'm not sure if that is a result of him being gassed and taking plays off or simply not having a great understanding of how to disengage. With his athletic skill set he shouldn't get himself caught in those situations as much as he does. This issue also snow balls from the fact that he plays too tall and doesn't generate enough power because he loses the leverage battle.
But yet you want to put him at SDE?
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Old 02-28-2015, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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Mark me down as a Dupre guy as well, but I'm not taking anything away from the other LBers who look very solid to me, but Dupre could end up being the best.

Playing for Kentucky where he was the only threat, ment most teams planned specifically against him and I suspect he got a lot of double teaming. Most of the others played with talent, that left more open space for them to operate in. He has the looks of a beast to me.

There's more to it than that with Dupree. Too often Kentucky had Dupree dropping into coverage on passing downs instead of going after the QB.

You don't do that with a 'stud' pass rusher in college football. Or the NFL.

You allow him to attack where he's going to have the most impact.

Maybe his college coaches misused him, or maybe they believed Dupree wasn't going to get to the QB anyway.
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Old 02-28-2015, 08:30 PM    (permalink
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There's more to it than that with Dupree. Too often Kentucky had Dupree dropping into coverage on passing downs instead of going after the QB.

You don't do that with a 'stud' pass rusher in college football. Or the NFL.

You allow him to attack where he's going to have the most impact.

Maybe his college coaches misused him, or maybe they believed Dupree wasn't going to get to the QB anyway.
Yet he had more sacks than any 2 players on his team combined. If his coaches thought that they were clearly wrong.
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Old 02-28-2015, 08:44 PM    (permalink
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Yet he had more sacks than any 2 players on his team combined. If his coaches thought that they were clearly wrong.
When you've got one star on a team, the coaches will try to stick his thumb in every hole in the dyke and pray he succeeds and sometimes they will guess wrong and stretch him too thin and he'll be caught out of position.

This years crop of edge rushers looks great and he belongs in that group, who takes him in the draft and how high he goes is anybody's guess. It is going to come down to how each GM rates him and which GM's love him and that will be decided on draft day.
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Old Yesterday, 01:12 AM    (permalink
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He's Ziggy Ansah to me, although Dupree is a better pure athlete.

Ansah IMO is never going to be an elite NFL pass rusher and neither is Dupree.

All the top pass rushing prospects in this draft have the tools, but I hate evaluating college pass rushing prospects who struggle being productive or dominant in college.

Other than Beasley and Ray, none of the top 5 guys put up the stats typically expected out of top edge rushing prospects.

I know Justin Houston is the template for guys who didn't top 10 sacks in a season in college but were beasts in the NFL, but that amount of projection is really difficult IMO.

Guys like Terrell Suggs and Von Miller were sack machines in college so you already knew what they could do coming off the edge.

With Dupree, you're basically crossing your fingers hoping he becomes something special in the pros.

I saw Brian Orakpo up close for most of his career in the NFL, and guess what, I'm more of the opinion that great pass rushers can only be coached up to a point.

Ultimately a guy either has a knack for getting to the QB at a high rate, or he doesn't,(Rak did not).

But hey I was totally wrong about Dontari Poe too.
Sometimes guys with elite tools are better suited for the pro game than college.

Dupree is a Clowney level athlete and if he only becomes a 15-20% better football player in the NFL, he's going to be a pro bowler.
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