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Old 11-16-2009, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Jughead10 View Post
I think it was right the call. The Pat's offense is by far the superior unit compared to their defense. The percentage of picking up the 4th and 2 is probably higher than the defense stopping Manning from going 70 yards in 2 minutes with 2 timeouts. He might have had all 3, I forget.

In my opinion, if they punt, there is no doubt in my mind Peyton drives the field and scores leaving the Pats with no time. I also think Bill thought if they didn't pick up the 4th down, Peyton would have scored quickly enough to leave them another chance with the ball. That didn't happen though.

It wasn't the right call. I don't care if you have the Sisters of the Blind as your defense, if you have a 6 point lead there is no such thing as going for it on 4th down from your own 28 yard line. This is BB taking a dump on the D that he built and oversees, and it's got a serious chance of having long term repercussions not just in the playoff standings, but in how these guys play for him from here on out.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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Yo Bill, maybe you could trust your defense more if you wouldn't have traded back instead of taking Clay Matthews. Thanks bro. :)
And many other solid prospects at LB/DE. "You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to TitleTown088 again." :( lol

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Originally Posted by no bare feet View Post
I did notice Brady vehemently pleading to Bill to go for it after the 3rd down play. I almost forgot about that. So who's call was it really? Too much faith in the QB, did Tom see something?
Either way the play was right and should have worked, but for a bobble.
The more important point, imo was:
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I think the biggest mistake was not letting Addai score that TD after they missed the 4th down. That would have left them about 1:30 I think, more than enough time for Brady to drive for a FG.

I don't have a problem with the play call there...but when you miss it, you have to let the Colts score quickly so you can get it back. That should've been part of the strategy going into the 4th down call.
. . . poor clock management. With no timeouts to challenge or prevent the Colts from running out the clock it was a terrible decision. The ability to stop the clock and save time for the offense in the event of a Colts score was paramount, and BB failed to account for that.

While I completely understand the support BB receives for making the "ballsy" decision, it was stupid in this instance.

Give the D a chance with Peyton basically forced to pass for 70-80 yards, rather than turn the ball over at the 30 and allow the Colts to use their entire playbook and beat you running the ball.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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It wasn't the right call. I don't care if you have the Sisters of the Blind as your defense, if you have a 6 point lead there is no such thing as going for it on 4th down from your own 28 yard line. This is BB taking a dump on the D that he built and oversees, and it's got a serious chance of having long term repercussions not just in the playoff standings, but in how these guys play for him from here on out.
Exactly. If you can count on your defense in that spot you might as well pack it up because you threw the whole unit under the bus. Also, by giving more opportunities to the Colts offense it creates a chance that there is a turnover or a mistake by one of the Colts young WR's. You also have the possibility of bad clock management which could result in a hurried or flustered offense. If the Pats were on the 50 I'd understand the decision better but this was just a big mistake.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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It wasn't the right call. I don't care if you have the Sisters of the Blind as your defense, if you have a 6 point lead there is no such thing as going for it on 4th down from your own 28 yard line. This is BB taking a dump on the D that he built and oversees, and it's got a serious chance of having long term repercussions not just in the playoff standings, but in how these guys play for him from here on out.
Oh it is him telling the D that he didn't have faith in them there. But regardless it still gave him the better chance to win that game. He has another 6 or 7 weeks to build his D's confidence back up. He can sleepwalk into the playoffs right now with a shaky D. He was trying to get the number 1 seed last night. With that out of the window he can just sleepwalk now.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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I think Bellichik was pretty much on his own here as far as sound strategy goes. If you asked ten HOF coaches what they would have done they would have said kick it. I say that because i cant ever remember anyone going for it from their own 28 on 4th and 2 with a 6 point lead.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:15 PM    (permalink
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How was it not the right call? He had a choice to either put the game in Brady's hands or in Manning's, and of course he chose Brady. If Tom Brady can't gain two yards on a consistent basis then he shouldn't even come close to being mentioned with the best QB's in the league.
You're right...why did they ever punt? Why even pay the defense?

I know it was against the Colts but BB made one of the greatest decisions of ALL time.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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You're right...why did they ever punt? Why even pay the defense?

I know it was against the Colts but BB made one of the greatest decisions of ALL time.
When the Pats went 16-0 in the regular season, Bill went for it on 4th down all the time. To the point where people thought it was bad for the game and he was running scores up. With that offense he has a better chance coverting the 4th down then stopping Manning. The funny thing is, I think they did get the first down.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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If this was any other coach everybody on here would be calling for his head.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:25 PM    (permalink
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If this was any other coach everybody on here would be calling for his head.
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a unique situation because of the talent of the offense that was on the field, and the talent of the QB they would have been punting the ball to.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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Absolutely I think the call to go for it was right but I'm not sure I liked the call firstly on the pass to Welker in 3rd then te pass to Faulk. They went for it simply because the defensive line was gassed. Vince Wilfork who doesn't normally play on passing downs played about 90% of the snaps. Banta Cain and Rob Kninkovich were both lost early too. It ended up being no one available to rotate up front which meant no pressure was put on Manning. He would have picked the defense apart from 75 yards
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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If this was any other coach everybody on here would be calling for his head.
Imagine Mangini pulling that? naw he wouldnt take any heat in here.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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It wasn't the right call. I don't care if you have the Sisters of the Blind as your defense, if you have a 6 point lead there is no such thing as going for it on 4th down from your own 28 yard line. This is BB taking a dump on the D that he built and oversees, and it's got a serious chance of having long term repercussions not just in the playoff standings, but in how these guys play for him from here on out.


I agree with this to an extent, the players on D are going to be pissed he didnt give them a shot to stop the Colts.

But he's not 'taking a dumb' on his D as much as hes saying he thought Tom Brady had a better chance of gaining 2 yards then of the Pats D stopping Peyton from going 70 in 2 minutes and he was right. The Colts had just had two TD drives, both 79 yards in the 4th quarter, one was 2:04 and one was 1:49. Two recent TD drives that were very fast showed the Colts were coming together.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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Brady did get the first down, but his receiver bobbled the ball and that's why it was marked short. Kind of unlucky for the Patriots in that regard.

Personally, I kick it deep and make Manning drive the 80 or so yards to beat me. Can't really say it was a bad call though. I understood Brady and Belichick's logic in going for it but it backfired in their face.

I think also it was where the ball was. I believe it was on the 30 yard line, correct me if I'm wrong. I would have been more inclined to go for it if it was near the 50 but giving Manning a short field is playing with fire.

I definitely don't think it was a bad call though. Just one that backfired.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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It was the right call in my opinion, just like you guys have mentioned. You look at the circumstances, and it makes perfect sense to go for it.

1. Tom Brady is completing 66% of his passes in 2009.
2. Tom Brady was 29/42 (69%) for 375 yards (8.9 ypa), and the Patriots offense had accumulated 477 total yards of offense.
3. Since Tom Brady took over in 2001, the Patiots have converted 76% of their 4th and 2's or less.
4. A gassed and injured defense.

5. Opposition: Peyton Manning. By punting, you gaurantee that Manning (who is having the best season of his career) has the last possession. The difference between failing to convert and punting is about 40-50 yards. I'll take my chances trying to gain 2 yards, after the offense had already accumulated 450+, to keep MVP Manning on the sidelines and end the game, than give him an extra 45 yards (and the 2 min. warning?) to deal with.

I am really surprised that this decision is being talked about so much. The Patriots utilize a lot of short passes (Welker and Faulk) and have one of the best QBs ever, and people are questioning their decision to keep the offense on the field so the HoF QB on the other sideline doesn't get a chance? If the Patriots gain those 2 yards, Manning doesn't see the field (or maybe with less than 30 seconds to go) and its game over, brilliant decision by Brady and Belichick.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:31 PM    (permalink
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The plays failure was not a function of bad design or strategy, it was a function of Faulks inability to make that play. I would have done the same thing, trying to keep the ball out of the hands of the best QB in the last ten years, maybe ever. Makes sense to me.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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I understand the decision, and if it weren't for a bobble thats a first down from forward progress, but I would have punted it there every time no matter what. Yeah, the Colts offense was clicking and all, but even with a 35 yard punt you double the field they have to go if your offense doesn't make the first down.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:04 PM    (permalink
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The problem with even doubling the length of the field is the Colts scored their TD without using a timeout, with a running play and by letting the clock run down. The two previous TD drives took approximately the same amount of time as there was left. Bottom line if Manning got the ball back last night he was going to score know matter where from.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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The problem with even doubling the length of the field is the Colts scored their TD without using a timeout, with a running play and by letting the clock run down. The two previous TD drives took approximately the same amount of time as there was left. Bottom line if Manning got the ball back last night he was going to score know matter where from.
A very real possibility. Or NE could have recorded INT # 3 of the night. Either way, at least force the Colts to actually win the game. Failing on the 4th down conversion with no ability to stop the clock was a give away. I'd rather Manning prove it.

Like GiantsFan mentioned - with ~70 yards to go NE would have many more chances to make a big play. 2 mins & 30 yards was just asking for what we got - kill the clock before scoring the go ahead points.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by d34ng3l021 View Post
I am really surprised that this decision is being talked about so much.
Really? Because i'm surprised it's being defended by so many people.

Like I said before, the only reason this is even a debate is because of who the coach is, anybody else and there isn't even a question as to weather or not he made the right call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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The problem with even doubling the length of the field is the Colts scored their TD without using a timeout, with a running play and by letting the clock run down. The two previous TD drives took approximately the same amount of time as there was left. Bottom line if Manning got the ball back last night he was going to score know matter where from.
Peyton is the best but you can't say he's automatic in any situation...unless that situation is 28 yards out.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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It was only a bad call because it didn't work. If Faulk catches the ball cleanly, without the bobble New England wins the game and everyone is praising Belichick. Like someone pointed out, Tom Brady has converted 76% of his career 4th & 2 (or less). Does anyone think New England had a higher than 76% chance of stopping the Colts? Especially after giving up 108 yards on 10 plays over the previous two possessions in a combined 3:31.

You play the odds and the odds said that gaining two yards was more likely than stopping an offense that had just walked all over your defense two possessions in a row.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:22 PM    (permalink
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It was only a bad call because it didn't work. If Faulk catches the ball cleanly, without the bobble New England wins the game and everyone is praising Belichick. Like someone pointed out, Tom Brady has converted 76% of his career 4th & 2 (or less). Does anyone think New England had a higher than 76% chance of stopping the Colts? Especially after giving up 108 yards on 10 plays over the previous two possessions in a combined 3:31.

You play the odds and the odds said that gaining two yards was more likely than stopping an offense that had just walked all over your defense two possessions in a row.

I donno PL, if it had worked I still think it would have been a bad call, just one that they got away with.

Honestly it's probably best for the Pats that this blew up in BB's face. If he really thinks he can get away with this kind of crap then he needed a big time ego check.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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I donno PL, if it had worked I still think it would have been a bad call, just one that they got away with.
Same here. Bad call either way. If they converted the 4th down I would still say it was dumb.
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Old 11-16-2009, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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If they would have gotten the 1st down, there would be no discussion and Bill would be a genius. They didn't get it so now we are second guessing him.

Personally, I would have punted and made Manning drive the length of the field and score a TD.

Again, if Faulk doesn't bobble that pass, Bill is a genius.
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