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Old 11-17-2009, 06:50 PM    (permalink
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This thread is getting a little repetitive.
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Old 11-17-2009, 06:55 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i'm glad you pointed that out. i would've thought you might've, you know, referenced or refuted some of them, but since you didn't, i'll just assume you have no idea what you're talking about and just couldn't resist the submit button. let me know when you have something borderline worthwhile to add.



i'd start with the playcall. it's like that crap madden always used to rail on. if you need 2 yards, you don't run a route at 2 yards. you run it to 3 or 4 yards. i tend to think welker on a quick slant would've been a better option (the same play that would've beat denver) if you wanted to go for it.

that said, i'll take a belichick defense against peyton manning for 70 yards almost every single time.



i'd agree but. the pats needed that game for homefield in the playoffs. and not, obviously, that they can't beat the colts in indy, but it seems unlikely that the colts would have good odds in foxboro in january.

*shrug*

i certainly think it matters more than the call in the jacksonville game.
I think we are on the same line of thinking then.

Edit: And for people applying statistical probabilities to that situation... lolol, have you ever played football?
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Old 11-17-2009, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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I still don't like the call, but I'm a Pats fan so it obviously stung to see us not make it. I could see how some would think it was smart, but our defese had been playing decently considering what we were up against and I would have much rather have punted that ball away. Putting Manning on the 28 yard line with that little time in the dome is suicide, no matter how well Brady was playing.
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Old 11-17-2009, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by d34ng3l021 View Post
?

I understand you're trying to show how that statistic is irrelevant, but the example you have used doesn't really do anything. late 90s =/= 2001-now. That fact is, when Bill Belichick decides to go for it on 4th and 2 or less and has Tom Brady as his QB, he converts 76% of the time. On Sunday, Bill Belichick had Tom Brady as his QB and decided to go for it. The chance of success may not be 76% exactly, but the fact that Brady has had success in these situations for basically his whole starting career whenever Belichick has decided to go for it has to factor into the decision.
Okay, im gonna help njx out on this one.

Since 2005 the bears have been ranked amongst the top with takeways. This does not help me in any sort with this year, even though most of the guys are back. I mean just look at all the external effects like a rookie LT, a knee surgery and losing the QB coach. There is just no use in bringing in evidence of years past when discussing this year. There is a big difference between two seasons, ask the Titans. And you are looking at almost 8 seasons. How many players Tom played with in 2001 are still on that offense? how many from 2002?


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Of course we'll never know what would have happened if Peyton had the ball at his own 30, but to suggest that Peyton might have been able to overcome his NE woes from earlier in his career is certainly more plausible now that it was before, seeing his recent success against NE. No QB is going to put up world-beating numbers on a Belichick defense (the man is a genius), but what Peyton has done recently is about as good as your going to do.
The thing is that you are looking at stats over the whole game. i mean just look back at 2007 when Peyton got the ball with 3:15 left, 4 points down and he fumbled. obviously that was against a different defense, but its not like Peyton will magically make the ball disappear and appear in the endzone without any chance of stopping it.

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There's a reason as to why they have the 2nd fewest rushing attempts. When your running game averages 3.9 yards per carry (good for 23rd in the league), even after the opposing defenses have to account for Manning, then you obviously aren't going to run it much. His receivers (wayne, clark) are good, but if you give Peyton Manning any receiver that can catch on a consistent basis and run routes well, then Manning can make him into a star. That is just my opinion and a different debate all together, but think about it. Watch a Marvin Harrison highlight tape and tell me if he ever broke any tackles, made some crazy jumps, or beat the defense without a double move. A Marvin Harrison highlight tape consists of a double move and then catching the ball either in between the numbers or with outstretched hands - nothing more.
Marvin harrisons hands are as good as it gets. Great rout running helps every good quarterback. im not sure what your point is. Dallas Clark is having the best stats for a TE with maybe Vernon Davis, and Reggie Wayne is constantly making almost impossible catches. Peyton manning does make players better. that doesnt mean you can throw in any scrub and he will magically be a 1000 yard receiver. Also, addai is a great receiver out of the backfield. i think even without Manning, the colts have a great great weapon arsenal
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Old 11-17-2009, 07:35 PM    (permalink
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Okay, im gonna help njx out on this one.

Since 2005 the bears have been ranked amongst the top with takeways. This does not help me in any sort with this year, even though most of the guys are back. I mean just look at all the external effects like a rookie LT, a knee surgery and losing the QB coach. There is just no use in bringing in evidence of years past when discussing this year. There is a big difference between two seasons, ask the Titans. And you are looking at almost 8 seasons. How many players Tom played with in 2001 are still on that offense? how many from 2002?
I see the point you are trying to make, and it is a valid one. The changes that teams undergo is tremendous, but in a way, that 76% encompasses all those changes. He may not have Troy Brown and Deion Branch anymore, but part of that 76% is with the new group of guys too. In 07, with nearly the same supporting cast (Vollmer or whatever in for Light isn't going to make a difference when trying to gain 2 yards), Tom Brady was 4/4 for 15 yards on 4th and 0-2.

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The thing is that you are looking at stats over the whole game. i mean just look back at 2007 when Peyton got the ball with 3:15 left, 4 points down and he fumbled. obviously that was against a different defense, but its not like Peyton will magically make the ball disappear and appear in the endzone without any chance of stopping it.
And I am not trying to say he would have. What Peyton Manning would have done with the ball at his own 30 is unknown, but like I said: the opinion of the call depends directly on what you think Peyton Manning would have done. I thought Peyton Manning would have been capable of driving it down the field for a TD, so I thought it was the right call (right, good, whatever) to try to gain the extra 2 yards so that wouldn't happen. The people who thought Manning would not score in that situation are obviously the ones who disagreed with the calls. And it is not simply black and white like that, of course, but you have to weigh in those options. Is the 60-70% chance (or whatever % you want) that you keep Manning on the sidelines worth those extra 45 yards? Belichick obviously thought it was.

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Marvin harrisons hands are as good as it gets. Great rout running helps every good quarterback. im not sure what your point is. Dallas Clark is having the best stats for a TE with maybe Vernon Davis, and Reggie Wayne is constantly making almost impossible catches. Peyton manning does make players better. that doesnt mean you can throw in any scrub and he will magically be a 1000 yard receiver. Also, addai is a great receiver out of the backfield. i think even without Manning, the colts have a great great weapon arsenal
And I didn't say that you could throw in any scrub and he will have success. If you can run routes well and catch on a consistent basis (Wayne, Harrison, Clark), Manning can do wonders for your career. Those players definitely excel at catching and running routes, but outside of that? Top flight speed? Strength? Great vertical? What I was trying to say to say was that the Colts WRs aren't overly physically talented, and don't need to be with Manning. I think without Manning, the Colts would fall apart. Great route running is an asset to all QBs, but Manning is the one who utilizes it most with his accuracy and understanding of the game; some QBs can get by by throwing it up to talented receivers. Once again, a whole new debate.
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Old 11-17-2009, 07:49 PM    (permalink
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I see the point you are trying to make, and it is a valid one. The changes that teams undergo is tremendous, but in a way, that 76% encompasses all those changes. He may not have Troy Brown and Deion Branch anymore, but part of that 76% is with the new group of guys too. In 07, with nearly the same supporting cast (Vollmer or whatever in for Light isn't going to make a difference when trying to gain 2 yards), Tom Brady was 4/4 for 15 yards on 4th and 0-2.
Thing is, thats the same with the bears defense. u incorporate the changes, but the changes are not in important. juts like the WRs he had before. the only important thing is the cast around him right NOW.


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And I am not trying to say he would have. What Peyton Manning would have done with the ball at his own 30 is unknown, but like I said: the opinion of the call depends directly on what you think Peyton Manning would have done. I thought Peyton Manning would have been capable of driving it down the field for a TD, so I thought it was the right call (right, good, whatever) to try to gain the extra 2 yards so that wouldn't happen. The people who thought Manning would not score in that situation are obviously the ones who disagreed with the calls. And it is not simply black and white like that, of course, but you have to weigh in those options. Is the 60-70% chance (or whatever % you want) that you keep Manning on the sidelines worth those extra 45 yards? Belichick obviously thought it was.
im dont think njx said hed ever score, but u seemed to give all those stats to say he would have definitely scored. which is not true. but if you are saying you think he would have scored, its basically the same as saying he wouldnt have. the important thing now after the play is, that we know this decision didnt play out. the other decision might have lead to manning making the TD or being stopped. we'll never know. all we know is that they MIGHT have won that way. obviously he didnt with this call.


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And I didn't say that you could throw in any scrub and he will have success. If you can run routes well and catch on a consistent basis (Wayne, Harrison, Clark), Manning can do wonders for your career. Those players definitely excel at catching and running routes, but outside of that? Top flight speed? Strength? Great vertical? What I was trying to say to say was that the Colts WRs aren't overly physically talented, and don't need to be with Manning. I think without Manning, the Colts would fall apart. Great route running is an asset to all QBs, but Manning is the one who utilizes it most with his accuracy and understanding of the game; some QBs can get by by throwing it up to talented receivers. Once again, a whole new debate.
[/quote]
Im pretty sure Wayne ran a 4.4 which is pretty fast and he beats players constantly on deep routes too. I mean they might not be the bruises like say Anquan Boldin, but why should they be? they are basically tory holts. Im not really sure about rice, but was he big bruiser or was overly fast or extreme vertical?
They might not be the physical specimens as others nowadays but they are sure as hell talented. Those grabs they are making are not made by guys with no talent. but yea different debate
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:07 PM    (permalink
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How was it not the right call? He had a choice to either put the game in Brady's hands or in Manning's, and of course he chose Brady. If Tom Brady can't gain two yards on a consistent basis then he shouldn't even come close to being mentioned with the best QB's in the league.
You can't say that ****... That makes no sense... you act as if that there is no defense there to cover.
Stupid cheese head.

Imo bad coaches call... You can't do that that far in your own end with the lead.
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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Only way I can understand going for it is if you run on 3rd down, passing two straight times I didn't understand. If you think you may want to go for it on 4th down you almost have to run it on 3rd and 2 to try and get an extra yard, or at least run the clock down.
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:46 PM    (permalink
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Thing is, thats the same with the bears defense. u incorporate the changes, but the changes are not in important. juts like the WRs he had before. the only important thing is the cast around him right NOW.
Definitely, but I am one of those people that think the QB is all-important on offense. If you have a top flight QB for a period of time, a lot of your success is going to come because of him; everything else is secondary. Tom Brady was there before, converting those 4th and shorts, and Tom Brady was there taking the snap. It isn't a great argument, but that is how I feel.

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im dont think njx said hed ever score, but u seemed to give all those stats to say he would have definitely scored. which is not true. but if you are saying you think he would have scored, its basically the same as saying he wouldnt have. the important thing now after the play is, that we know this decision didnt play out. the other decision might have lead to manning making the TD or being stopped. we'll never know. all we know is that they MIGHT have won that way. obviously he didnt with this call.
But the thing is, he could've won with that call. It was a matter of execution that failed Belichick. If Faulk doesn't bobble the catch and the Patriots gain that first down, the Colts most likely get the ball back at their 20-30 yard line with no time outs and less than 40 seconds to go (that is, if they stop the first down again). You can't blame Belichick for making that call at that time, knowing in hindsight that it will fail.

Most teams leave it to their defense to stop the offense from gaining 75 yards to win a game. Belichick left it to his offense to gain 2 yards to win a game. I don't see what is wrong with that, especially if your defense is facing Peyton Manning and your offense features Tom Brady.

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Im pretty sure Wayne ran a 4.4 which is pretty fast and he beats players constantly on deep routes too. I mean they might not be the bruises like say Anquan Boldin, but why should they be? they are basically tory holts. Im not really sure about rice, but was he big bruiser or was overly fast or extreme vertical?
They might not be the physical specimens as others nowadays but they are sure as hell talented. Those grabs they are making are not made by guys with no talent. but yea different debate
Every receiver below the height of 6'2" should be running 4.4 40s in the NFL, especially Wayne at 6'0". Receivers running in the 4.5 range are the 6'4" possession/redzone/beast guys; Wayne is not that. But those are just 40 times. The point I was trying to make was that Manning doesn't need physically outstanding receivers in the mold of Randy Moss or Marques Colston to put up insane numbers. He simply relies on his accuracy and timing to match up with his WRs routes and hands.

All right, I am done debating this. Time flies way too much making these arguments.
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:50 PM    (permalink
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But the thing is, he could've won with that call. It was a matter of execution that failed Belichick. If Faulk doesn't bobble the catch and the Patriots gain that first down, the Colts most likely get the ball back at their 20-30 yard line with no time outs and less than 40 seconds to go (that is, if they stop the first down again). You can't blame Belichick for making that call at that time, knowing in hindsight that it will fail.
couldve wouldve shouldve. he didnt win. He might have won with the other, but thats beside the point. he lost. so it was maybe a good decision but he was wrong. And njx never said it was a bad decision. he just say he was wrong as in, in the end he lost.
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Old 11-17-2009, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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couldve wouldve shouldve. he didnt win. He might have won with the other, but thats beside the point. he lost. so it was maybe a good decision but he was wrong. And njx never said it was a bad decision. he just say he was wrong as in, in the end he lost.
Using hindsight to judge a decision is pointless. I was defending his decision to go for it at that time.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:00 PM    (permalink
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Good decision, bad outcome.
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:03 PM    (permalink
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Using hindsight to judge a decision is pointless. I was defending his decision to go for it at that time.
thing is, without hindsight u cant say if it was the right or wrong decision cause right and wrong depends on the outcome
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Old 11-17-2009, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang View Post
thing is, without hindsight u cant say if it was the right or wrong decision cause right and wrong depends on the outcome
Well that's why this is a debate. If it was so straight forward as "right" or "wrong" before the snap, then Bellichick would have known what to do anyways, and we wouldn't be having this conversation.


There is no right or wrong, before or after, the call. The decision to go for it can, is not and never will be defined as such. Maybe it was the wrong play, or poor execution and maybe even bad preparation, but the decision to go for it was not "wrong".
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Old 11-17-2009, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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What I don't get about all of this is that people chose to look at this one way, at least the media.

Everyone bashes him, saying he was implying " I have no confidence in my defense to stop Peyton"

Then they go on to say how that hurts the players and their relationship.

The argument AFTER the game, is that you don't give Peyton another chance because due to history, he is too dangerous.

But I've been seeing it this way:

He probably had confidence in his defense, he believed that they wouldn't give up a touchdown, people act as if the Colts had won the game if they stopped them. The Colts offense and Peyton Manning is very dangerous, but that night it had been far from consistent. That, and the fact that the Patriots offense had basically worked the Colts sparing a couple drives. So, you could say he gave both units votes of high confidence. He believed that the offense would get the first down, and if they didn't the defense would not give up a touchdown.

His confidence in his team got him this game, but I think that it could and more than likely will pay dividends in the long run.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots dominate the rest of the season, that's just how they seem to respond to this kind of stuff.
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Old 11-18-2009, 12:37 AM    (permalink
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i'm just not capable of being pleasant in explaining this anymore when it's literally been repeated 75 times.
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Old 11-18-2009, 01:32 AM    (permalink
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please reference previous posts before i blow a gasket explaining the difference between making the choice you think gives you the best chance, and making the wrong choice. i'm just not capable of being pleasant in explaining this anymore when it's literally been repeated 75 times.
There is a difference here. It is perfectly possible that there was no right choice to be made and that Belichek took the "better" of two wrong choices. If there was no right choice(ie. Punt=loss also) then he in fact made the right choice even though it was also wrong, because he in fact made the better of two wrong choices.

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right. he didn't trust their defense to get a stop. i don't see what point you're failing to make here.
On the contrary, and a point that seems to be completely missed by everyone, he actually had faith, he said to his defense, I don't think you need 70 yards, I believe you can stop them with 30 yards.

I find it funny, normally when a coach goes for it "against the grain" on 4th down, he is "showing faith in his defense" by believing they can defend a shortened field, yet somehow Belichek has dissed his defense in this situation, seems to be a double standard in that somewhere, either everyone else is also dissing the defense or Bill is not.

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whereas, if they're on defense, they're essentially passive observers. at least, they might be if you don't have any idea what football is.
Given their efforts, you could actually argue they were, though I completely agree with you, punt or no punt, they still had a perfectly good chance to win the game, lets remember, the Colts need a converted touchdown to win, thats 30 yards to stop the TD and a PAT to force overtime, the defense failed to get it done in both situations, which in many ways, reinforces that the decision to go for it presented the best chance to win.

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or dallas clark. or the second fewest rushing attempts in the league. or the 12th most rushing tds in the league. i can do this all day. saying he has no help is ridiculous and obviously untrue.
Spot on, part of that offense is Manning, but he has a very solid OL that whilst lacking stars, does a good job along with Manning. Just because they aren't big names does not mean that Garcon and Collie can't play either. Being a rookie or young doesn't mean you can't be good and their is a lag in becoming recognised, especially on an offense with Manning, Wayne and Clark.

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odds have absolutely nothing to do with the correct and incorrect decision. they have everything to do with the decision that might pay off most of the time. if i flip a coin, odds are that i'll get heads 50% of the time. if i call heads and it lands tails, i still made the WRONG choice. it's not really that bloody difficult to understand.
That's not the same situation though. I agree that in this case his decision was "wrong". In that he made the decision and lost, ie he called heads. The problem with the example is that you are assuming that "tails" is the only other possibility, in this case you are saying that if he punts he wins, the possibility of neither happening must exist to be able to relate it to football. He still made the "best" decision, if not the right one.

I think that is the point on that side of things. The "right" decision to take is the "best" decision, not the one that turns out correct. Take a game of two up to extend your coin flip example(2up is 2 coins). If you guess one of each, you have a 50% chance of winning. 2 of either heads or tails is 25% each. That means that one of each is the "best" choice, thus it is the right choice(assuming the intent to maximise winnings) to make every time. It can still be the wrong choice though, but that is based on hindsight and not the time the choice has to be made. So Belichek has made the "right" choice and gotten it "wrong". In this situation, going for it is guessing one of each. You then having the punt option, which gives you 2 heads(say Colts win) or 2 tails(say Pats win), whats to say he doesn't guess two tails and get two heads and in that case he still got it wrong, only he went against what was the best choice to do it. He can also get it right obviously, but that doesn't make it the best choice or give the best chance of winning consistently. I see what you are saying, basically you are arguing that the outcome dictates wrong or right, you aren't considering that there may not be a right choice here, in which case, you need to make best choice.

Imagine you have siamese twins. Doctor says to you, I can separate them and you will almost certainly lose one kid or keep them together and both die. Both these choices are wrong as you almost certainly lose a kid, but you still have a best choice or better choice.
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Old 11-18-2009, 03:17 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by wogitalia View Post
There is a difference here. It is perfectly possible that there was no right choice to be made and that Belichek took the "better" of two wrong choices. If there was no right choice(ie. Punt=loss also) then he in fact made the right choice even though it was also wrong, because he in fact made the better of two wrong choices.
Jesus ************* christ, how hard is this to understand. That he made the better decision for him, its what we are saying all a long. but if there were two wrong choices he made one of the wrong choices. just because the other decision is also wrong doesnt make the one right.

Going back to the door example. door1 60%, door 2 30%, door 3 10%.
Door 3 is the winning door but you can only choose between door1 and door2. the best decision would be door 1 obviously. but thats still the wrong door. then look at door 2, its also wrong, but just because both, door1 and door2 are the wrong doors, doesnt make door1 the right door. seriously, is this so hard to understand?

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On the contrary, and a point that seems to be completely missed by everyone, he actually had faith, he said to his defense, I don't think you need 70 yards, I believe you can stop them with 30 yards.
Lol. He didnt want the defense to go on the field. its not like he went out there knee'd and said: "hey defense, ill give u a short field". no. he went out and didnt want his defense to come on the field anymore.

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I find it funny, normally when a coach goes for it "against the grain" on 4th down, he is "showing faith in his defense" by believing they can defend a shortened field, yet somehow Belichek has dissed his defense in this situation, seems to be a double standard in that somewhere, either everyone else is also dissing the defense or Bill is not.
This is because its with the game on the line. its not like taking the risk of a shortened field is okay cause the defense will make it. thats not the reason he went for it here. Correlation doesnt imply causation. just because it was a shortened field doesnt mean he automatically trusts his defense. cause then this decision would have made no sense.

Considering its not abouts scoring points here, the only reason to go for it is to win the game/run out the clock. now, if you trust your defense anyway, why go for it and risk a short field?

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Given their efforts, you could actually argue they were, though I completely agree with you, punt or no punt, they still had a perfectly good chance to win the game, lets remember, the Colts need a converted touchdown to win, thats 30 yards to stop the TD and a PAT to force overtime, the defense failed to get it done in both situations, which in many ways, reinforces that the decision to go for it presented the best chance to win.
and no one saying they didnt have a chance. but they didnt win. thats whats important now.



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That's not the same situation though. I agree that in this case his decision was "wrong". In that he made the decision and lost, ie he called heads. The problem with the example is that you are assuming that "tails" is the only other possibility, in this case you are saying that if he punts he wins, the possibility of neither happening must exist to be able to relate it to football. He still made the "best" decision, if not the right one.
see door example.
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I think that is the point on that side of things. The "right" decision to take is the "best" decision, not the one that turns out correct. Take a game of two up to extend your coin flip example(2up is 2 coins). If you guess one of each, you have a 50% chance of winning. 2 of either heads or tails is 25% each. That means that one of each is the "best" choice, thus it is the right choice(assuming the intent to maximise winnings) to make every time. It can still be the wrong choice though, but that is based on hindsight and not the time the choice has to be made. So Belichek has made the "right" choice and gotten it "wrong". In this situation, going for it is guessing one of each. You then having the punt option, which gives you 2 heads(say Colts win) or 2 tails(say Pats win), whats to say he doesn't guess two tails and get two heads and in that case he still got it wrong, only he went against what was the best choice to do it. He can also get it right obviously, but that doesn't make it the best choice or give the best chance of winning consistently. I see what you are saying, basically you are arguing that the outcome dictates wrong or right, you aren't considering that there may not be a right choice here, in which case, you need to make best choice.
The right decision is the right decision. its that simple. the right decision would be the one that lead to a win. thats whats right. thats what the intention is and thats what it played out. The best decision could be still *******, but does ti make it right? to make the best decision at that moment in this caes was not making the decision that ultimately lead to a win. Door 1 is the best decision but its wrong, cause its the wrong door.
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Imagine you have siamese twins. Doctor says to you, I can separate them and you will almost certainly lose one kid or keep them together and both die. Both these choices are wrong as you almost certainly lose a kid, but you still have a best choice or better choice.
yes, but we dont have this situation since we dont know the outcome. and in this case there is no right and wrong. cause there is no intention you want. thats a totally wrong analogy
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Old 11-18-2009, 10:09 PM    (permalink
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Freakonomics and famous Economist Steven Levitt:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.co...at/#more-21859

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I respect Bill Belichick more today than I ever have.
Last night he made a decision in the final minutes that led his team the New England Patriots to defeat. It will likely go down as one of the most criticized decisions any coach has ever made. With his team leading by six points and just over two minutes left in the game, he elected to go for it on fourth down on his own side of the field. His offense failed to get the first down, and the Indianapolis Colts promptly drove for a touchdown.
He has been excoriated for the choice he made. Everyone seems to agree it was a terrible blunder.
Here is why I respect Belichick so much. The data suggest that he actually probably did the right thing if his objective was to win the game. Economist David Romer studied years worth of data and found that, contrary to conventional wisdom, teams seem to punt way too much. Going for a first down on fourth and short yardage in your end zone is likely to increase the chance your team wins (albeit slightly). But Belichick had to know that if it failed, he would be subjected to endless criticism.
If his team had gotten the first down and the Patriots won, he would have gotten far less credit than he got blame for failing. This introduces what economists call a “principal-agent problem.” Even though going for it increases his team’s chance of winning, a coach who cares about his reputation will want to do the wrong thing. He will punt, just because he doesn’t want to be the goat. (I’ve seen the same thing in my research on penalty kicks in soccer; it looks like kicking it right down the middle is the best strategy, but it is so embarrassing when it fails that players don’t do it often enough.) What Belichick proved by going for it last night is that 1) he understands the data, and 2) he cares more about winning than anything else.
So hats off to Bill Belichick. This decision may have hurt his chances for the Football Hall of Fame, but it guarantees his induction into the Freakonomics Hall of Fame.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:24 PM    (permalink
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People were talking about chances/probabilities of getting the fourth down.

What about the chances of Manning driving 30 yards against Manning driving from wherever your punter punts it. You have to consider the worst case scenario. I'd be safe and smart, punt the ball. I understand the decision though, he went for the win.
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Old 11-19-2009, 12:56 AM    (permalink
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Hurt his chances for the football HOF? Really?
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Old 11-19-2009, 01:04 AM    (permalink
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Lol. He didnt want the defense to go on the field. its not like he went out there knee'd and said: "hey defense, ill give u a short field". no. he went out and didnt want his defense to come on the field anymore.
Of course he didn't want his defense on the field anymore, if they don't take the field, then the Pats should win(obviously always the defensive TD possibility). What he said is my offense can win this right here and now, if they fail my defense still has a chance to win this.

Punting says my defense has a better chance to win this but you don't go for it without thinking that the defense is still capable of getting the stop and you have in fact put more faith in them by shortening their field, in the event of the fail.

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Considering its not abouts scoring points here, the only reason to go for it is to win the game/run out the clock. now, if you trust your defense anyway, why go for it and risk a short field?
Many things factor into it. The above 50% chance to win the game right now surely factors in, that is why you play offense there but he also has the chance that his defense stops them, it had happened plenty in the game already. He is putting his faith in his defense still being able to get the stop.

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strongly disagree. i don't think any rational observer really thought his defense had a strong chance at getting that stop after they failed on 4th.
Why not? The league average is only 50% or so to score a redzone TD. Add another 10 yards. The Colts are good, I don't know anyone who actually thinks the Pats would have stopped them going 80 yards either, but you could win it right there and then, have a good shot at still winning. Colts needed a TD, if it was a FG, things change completely.

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i don't think anyone has ever said a coach was showing faith in his defense for going for it from his own 30. if you find an example, i'll certainly take that back. if you go for it on the opponent's 40, or the 50, sure. but 50-60 yards is substantially different than 30, and is even more different when there are only 2 minutes to go and the other team needs a touchdown.
How does the yard line change anything, if anything, the closer to your own endzone, the more faith you are showing. This is a unique situation though in that a FG was of no consideration, so they had to score a TD which is why he could do it from the 30(which you would normally not consider). But honestly, if it is a sign of faith on the 40 or 50, then it should also be on the 30. You can also consider it stupid, but that does not mean it is not placing faith in your defense. It is also showing a lot of confidence in you offense because you would obviously rather not give the opponent the ball that close to the endzone.

On the "right" decision thing. I am very much on the school of thought that you make the right decision by making the best decision. You can not base your life on what has happened, only what may happen. I see the point, if you want to base it on hindsight, the decision is wrong, plain and simple. However you don't have hindsight when making the decision and most likely never will and as a result the best decision is the right decision to make and the right decision can be wrong in result.

You have a 3 sided dice, you have the option to pick either 1-2 or 3. 1-2 is the right decision to take, whether you win or lose. You have to separate the decision from the result. Hope that clears up what I'm trying to say. Not arguing that the decision ended up wrong, that is obvious to anyone but I would argue to the grave that he made the right decision by making what I believe is the best decision. Sometimes you can do everything right and still end up wrong. Thats just life.

In short... at the time of the decision, it was the right decision, because it was the best decision, imo of course.
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Old 11-19-2009, 03:26 AM    (permalink
Gay Ork Wang
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Of course he didn't want his defense on the field anymore, if they don't take the field, then the Pats should win(obviously always the defensive TD possibility). What he said is my offense can win this right here and now, if they fail my defense still has a chance to win this.
obviously there still is a chance. there is always a chance. nothing is given. but hell, going for it doesnt show that he trusts his defense to defend the short field. im gonna say it again: Correlation doesnt imply causation. Just because failing the 4th down would lead to the defense defending a short field doesnt mean he intended that and thought they would make it.
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Punting says my defense has a better chance to win this but you don't go for it without thinking that the defense is still capable of getting the stop and you have in fact put more faith in them by shortening their field, in the event of the fail.
wtf? you really think there is a coach out there that trust his defense more to defend a short field than a long one?


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Many things factor into it. The above 50% chance to win the game right now surely factors in, that is why you play offense there but he also has the chance that his defense stops them, it had happened plenty in the game already. He is putting his faith in his defense still being able to get the stop.
He doesnt, he is lowering the chances of his defense. what its basically saying is: i trust my offense more to win it right now, than you when i punt it, since the chance winning it when going for it with the offense is a lot higher.


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Why not? The league average is only 50% or so to score a redzone TD. Add another 10 yards. The Colts are good, I don't know anyone who actually thinks the Pats would have stopped them going 80 yards either, but you could win it right there and then, have a good shot at still winning. Colts needed a TD, if it was a FG, things change completely.
i dont see what the league average has to do with the pats/colts defense.

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How does the yard line change anything, if anything, the closer to your own endzone, the more faith you are showing. This is a unique situation though in that a FG was of no consideration, so they had to score a TD which is why he could do it from the 30(which you would normally not consider). But honestly, if it is a sign of faith on the 40 or 50, then it should also be on the 30. You can also consider it stupid, but that does not mean it is not placing faith in your defense. It is also showing a lot of confidence in you offense because you would obviously rather not give the opponent the ball that close to the endzone.
So lets just go for it on 4th down every time, so you can boost the moral of your team? it is exactly what you say in the last part. its showing confidence in your defense rather than your offense. i dont see how going for it there would show any more confidence when he trusts the defense anyway, punt it, let the defense get a 3 and out and prolly get better field position after that.

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On the "right" decision thing. I am very much on the school of thought that you make the right decision by making the best decision. You can not base your life on what has happened, only what may happen. I see the point, if you want to base it on hindsight, the decision is wrong, plain and simple. However you don't have hindsight when making the decision and most likely never will and as a result the best decision is the right decision to make and the right decision can be wrong in result.
Yes, thats why no one can be sure that the decision he made is the right one. but now that we are discussing it, and we have to look at his intentions. His intentions were to make it. And even it was the best decision at the time, he still failed. so he failed. it was wrong to do cause the outcome wasnt right. if the intention was: lets make the choice that has the highest probability to win. then it was right. but it was not. no one cares about the chances if at the end you still win.

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You have a 3 sided dice, you have the option to pick either 1-2 or 3. 1-2 is the right decision to take, whether you win or lose. You have to separate the decision from the result. Hope that clears up what I'm trying to say. Not arguing that the decision ended up wrong, that is obvious to anyone but I would argue to the grave that he made the right decision by making what I believe is the best decision. Sometimes you can do everything right and still end up wrong. Thats just life.
seriously how is this so hard to get.
right = the outcome you wish for. So if it doesnt come, it was not the right decision. How is this so hard to get? its not rocket science. The result and the decision are related. you cant separate them. you make a decision and wish for a certain outcome. You lose. decision was not right.

[quote
In short... at the time of the decision, it was the right decision, because it was the best decision, imo of course.[/quote]
Best decision is not the right decision. it was the best decision at the time, yes. but you cant say at the time of a decision since a decision is always and will always be related to the outcome and the result.
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Old 11-19-2009, 03:32 AM    (permalink
Bengalsrocket
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Best decision is not the right decision. it was the best decision at the time, yes. but you cant say at the time of a decision since a decision is always and will always be related to the outcome and the result.
This is where people will disagree with you. Decisions are not based on the outcome. A good decision to me is one based on evaluation and preparation for said decision, not what comes after.

Also, I think you're entitled to your opinion of basing a good decision off of the outcome. I don't think you're wrong, I just have a different opinion on how I will evaluate decisions that are made.
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Old 11-19-2009, 08:16 AM    (permalink
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This is where people will disagree with you. Decisions are not based on the outcome. A good decision to me is one based on evaluation and preparation for said decision, not what comes after.
yes it is a good decision, no one said it isnt. it just wasnt the right one that lead to a win.
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Also, I think you're entitled to your opinion of basing a good decision off of the outcome. I don't think you're wrong, I just have a different opinion on how I will evaluate decisions that are made.
im not saying the decision is bad. id prolly also say it was almost the best possible decision. there is a difference between judging it with good and bad or the best and saying a definite it was right.
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