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View Poll Results: Which of these games do you think could be a upset special tomorrow?
Bills at Jags (-9) 8 13.11%
Steelers (-10) at Chiefs 3 4.92%
Seahawks at Vikings (-10 1/2) 1 1.64%
Redskins at Cowboys (-11) 13 21.31%
Saints (-11 1/2) at Bucs 12 19.67%
Cardinals (-9) at Rams 9 14.75%
Jets at Pats (-10 1/2) 9 14.75%
Bengals (-9 1/2) at Raiders 6 9.84%
Voters: 61. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-21-2009, 05:50 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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Originally Posted by Bengalsrocket View Post
This is interesting, do you have any data to back it up?
All I can tell you is that over the years I have won a lot of money based on this theory in every sport. Of course, nothing works 100% of the time, strange circumstances happen all the time in games, an interception run back for a TD or a fluke play like the one where Denver beat Cincy can spoil the upset. However if you believe that emotion plays a big part in winning football games then it is just common sense that Indy and NE were both particularly high emotionally when they played, ditto for Cincy and Pittsburgh and that it won't be easy for the HC to get his players fired up for the following game provided it isn't against another top NFL team. The losing team is more likely to be fired up since they lost a big game but the winning team usually comes out pretty flat for their next game unless they are playing say a New Orleans or a Minny type team, then all bets are off.
The best situation occurs when a top teams plays another top team followed by a weak team followed by another top team. In these circumstances, it is really tough for a HC to keep his players high for the middle team. Players think the middle game is an easy victory and come out flat looking ahead to the following tougher team. In these circumstances I have had an exceptionally winning record in predicting upsets although both situations do produces a high rate of covering the spread even if the top team holds on for a victory.
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Old 11-21-2009, 05:56 PM    (permalink
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Iamcanadian I agree with what you are saying to a extent. I have seen this happen over the years. The upset doesnt always happen but teams after a big win sometimes do play down to their opponent the next week. It happens more with teams that really needed the win the week before and got it only to lose to a team they shouldnt have the next week.

My Redskins have done it alot over the last 15 years. They win a big game or get on a hot streak and then fall flat and lose to a terrible team. The Skins loss in 2008 to the Rams is a perfect example.

I do think its more rare if it happens to a team with a good Head Coach or Quarterback. Usually their leadership doesnt allow things like this to happen.
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Old 11-21-2009, 05:59 PM    (permalink
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I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.
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Old 11-21-2009, 06:14 PM    (permalink
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The Jets WILL beat the Pats...again
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:17 PM    (permalink
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I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.
Agreed.

I dont think Seattle will win but they will give Minnesota a good game.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:25 PM    (permalink
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Bucs over Saints is very possible I am concerned a bit with all the injuries we're having. Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Sedrick Ellis, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer all ruled out. That's both starting Corners, DT, our punt returner/RB specialist, and one our role player WRs. So yeah we're hurting..

and the Bucs haven't looked bad the past few weeks, since Freeman stepped in they look rejuvenated and are playing hard.
Rodger that. Injuries have me worried about our chances this week.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Redskins will beat the spread, but I don't know if they'll actually get the win. It's an NFC East game and the cowboys are coming off of a miserable performance.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:33 PM    (permalink
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Redskins will beat the spread, but I don't know if they'll actually get the win. It's an NFC East game and the cowboys are coming off of a miserable performance.
It should be a close game.

I think the Skins will pull out a 20-17 win. Then again im a Skins fan so im biased LOL.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:36 PM    (permalink
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It should be a close game.

I think the Skins will pull out a 20-17 win. Then again im a Skins fan so im biased LOL.
It's the NFC East, we usually end up splitting our season serieses somehow so I expect Washington to give Dallas a game.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:55 PM    (permalink
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It's the NFC East, we usually end up splitting our season serieses somehow so I expect Washington to give Dallas a game.
Yeah I agree 100%. The Skins/Boys are 5-5 over the last 10 games in the series. 7 of the last 10 have been decided by 5 pts or less. It should be a good game.
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:59 PM    (permalink
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I'm as big a homer as it gets and evem I think that's crazy
Hah, exactly.
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Old 11-21-2009, 08:06 PM    (permalink
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I picked the Rams - they've been playing pretty well and I think the Cardinals are a little bit overrated. They've got home-field advantage in the game, too.
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Old 11-21-2009, 08:17 PM    (permalink
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All I can tell you is that over the years I have won a lot of money based on this theory in every sport. Of course, nothing works 100% of the time, strange circumstances happen all the time in games, an interception run back for a TD or a fluke play like the one where Denver beat Cincy can spoil the upset. However if you believe that emotion plays a big part in winning football games then it is just common sense that Indy and NE were both particularly high emotionally when they played, ditto for Cincy and Pittsburgh and that it won't be easy for the HC to get his players fired up for the following game provided it isn't against another top NFL team. The losing team is more likely to be fired up since they lost a big game but the winning team usually comes out pretty flat for their next game unless they are playing say a New Orleans or a Minny type team, then all bets are off.
The best situation occurs when a top teams plays another top team followed by a weak team followed by another top team. In these circumstances, it is really tough for a HC to keep his players high for the middle team. Players think the middle game is an easy victory and come out flat looking ahead to the following tougher team. In these circumstances I have had an exceptionally winning record in predicting upsets although both situations do produces a high rate of covering the spread even if the top team holds on for a victory.
That's a pretty interesting theory, I'm going to keep my eye out for it the rest of the season. I really never took notice to it in the past, weird.
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Old 11-21-2009, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PalmerToCJ View Post
Bengals have had all kinds of big wins this year and not come out flat. If anything you could argue not having Benson would hurt things, that would be a relevant argument.
Keep telling yourself that. You don't understand Oakland, they are a team that rides completely on emotion. If the offense under Gradkowski manages to get key first downs and a couple of scores it will more than likely light the spark needed to get our defense going again like it is capable of. Either way I'm expecting us to keep it close in a low-scoring game much like when we faced the Chargers the last time around.
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Old 11-21-2009, 09:02 PM    (permalink
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I am torn between the Bucs over Saints and Raiders over the Bengals. Bengals have never won in Oakland and Oakland does have a good defense. I can see the Bengals being one dimensional tomorrow with Benson being out.
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Old 11-21-2009, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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I am still shocked that is the line.
It was a terrible line by Vegas. The fact that it moved two full points so quickly shows this.
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Old 11-21-2009, 10:49 PM    (permalink
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I am torn between the Bucs over Saints and Raiders over the Bengals. Bengals have never won in Oakland and Oakland does have a good defense. I can see the Bengals being one dimensional tomorrow with Benson being out.
You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.
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Old 11-21-2009, 10:54 PM    (permalink
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You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.
I think he means the Bengal run game will be shutdown and it will force Palmer to have to make more plays to win the game. I could be wrong but I think that is what he was saying in his post.
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Old 11-21-2009, 11:09 PM    (permalink
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You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.
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I think he means the Bengal run game will be shutdown and it will force Palmer to have to make more plays to win the game. I could be wrong but I think that is what he was saying in his post.
What BB96 said.
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Old 11-21-2009, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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Cardinals pretty easily, I easy have the Rams winning this week.

They are coming off a pretty impressive performance, and you never know which Cardinals team will show up week to week, 5 INT Kurt Warner or 5 TD Kurt Warner. Either way, I think the Rams have got some momentum going into this week.
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Old 11-21-2009, 11:16 PM    (permalink
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I really think the Chiefs will win. The Steelers have lost that loving feeling. I HATE WHEN SHE DOES THAT!
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Old 11-22-2009, 12:03 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gsorace View Post
The Jets WILL beat the Pats...again
Pats are either going to come out flat, and have a very meh season, or come out firing on all cylinders and turn it on for the rest of the season after that loss sunday night. Ususally how it goes. I wouldnt take the Jets beating us twice, let alone at home.
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Old 11-22-2009, 12:11 AM    (permalink
BleedBurgundy96
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Pats are either going to come out flat, and have a very meh season, or come out firing on all cylinders and turn it on for the rest of the season after that loss sunday night. Ususally how it goes. I wouldnt take the Jets beating us twice, let alone at home.
The Patriots will...

1) Get revenge on Rex Ryan and the Jets for all the hype that surrounded the first meeting this season.

2) Want to come out and destroy the Jets after the sour taste left in their mouth from the loss last week to the Colts.

I am pretty sure Belichick and Brady will lay it on a Jets team that has pretty much fallen apart. Before the first meeting Rex Ryan was talking smack but now his team is weak and he was crying like a girl in the locker room.

Im pretty sure the Patriots will blow out the Jets tomorrow.
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Old 11-22-2009, 01:09 AM    (permalink
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I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.
Isn't this the Vikings story every week?
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Old 11-22-2009, 01:57 AM    (permalink
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My Cards are due to lay another egg against a much lower credentialled team.
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