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Old 12-21-2009, 06:10 PM    (permalink
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Default Is getting a first round bye really that important?

2008 - 1-3
2007 - 2-2
2006 - 2-2
2005 - 2-2
2004 - 4-0

Total - 11-9

That's the records of teams with a bye in the first round of the playoffs in the divisional round.

2 out of the last 5 years a team with a first round bye has won the Super Bowl (New England 2004 and Pittsburgh 2008).

So, is it really that important?

(I realize this sounds ironic coming from a Vikings fan whose team is in danger of blowing their chance at a first round bye, lol)
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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it really depends on the team. Example: Saints. They are a terrible cold weather team, so they benefit from playing in the Dome during the playoffs, then having to travel to say Philly or Green Bay.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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I think it depends on the health of your team. Last year if we would of had a first round bye we would of had a much better shot at the Steelers.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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I believe that it makes them complacent. And they think that they shouldn't go hard since they have a bye.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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It's like handing a playoff win to a team before the playoffs even start. It's the best advantage of any playoff system in any sport.

Playoff wins are extremely tough to get, it's a gigantic advantage if you have to get one less than the others...

Are there some perceived negatives (lack of rhythm, etc.)? Sure. But you take a guaranteed week off-and-advance over a possible loss every single time.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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It depends...like the Steelers they got hot at the end of the year, and kept ridding the streak.

Same with the Giants, they got hot end of regular season and kept riding that.

Its all about the type of momentum you go in with.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Winning playoff games=not easy. One less playoff game to win to get to the Super Bowl.
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Old 12-21-2009, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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Personally I would want the bye week but that is just because I'm an Eagles fan and the Eagles have a great history coming off of bye weeks under Andy Reid (14-0 counting playoffs).

But, I can definitely see where other people don't like the bye-week, you lose the rhythm, get complacent all those things.

Like everyone says it really depends on the team.

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Old 12-21-2009, 07:15 PM    (permalink
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thing is: you never want to lose in the regular season
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Old 12-21-2009, 07:18 PM    (permalink
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I think there can be valid arguments made for both sides..

having the Bye is really nice as it allows you to rest players, possibly get guys back from injury and let guys rehab a little longer. You also have an extra week to prepare, and of course it's one less Play Off game you have to play.

then again if you're on a really hot streak heading into the playoffs, I think as a team you want to continue that rhythm and kind of ride that proverbial wave of confidence. Where as having a Bye might disturb your streak, and cause you to get out of rhythm. (this is all speculation obviously, but just my observation from teams that ended the season strong, compared to teams that sat on a large division lead and rested starters down the stretch)
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Old 12-21-2009, 07:30 PM    (permalink
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Plus it gives some banged up players an extra week of rest, if you saw the chargers game last night we were falling like flies. We could def use it to let our players rest a week.
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Old 12-22-2009, 10:39 AM    (permalink
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In the case of the Colts, for example, our whole season has been a "streak" but I wouldn't call us hotter right now than we were at any point in the season.

With all our injuries it will be nice to have the week off. I don't think you lose your timing after just one week. The problems begin when you lock up HFA and then sit your starters the last 2-3 games of the season, then have a bye. 3-4 weeks with no football is a bad thing for a team trying to win in the playoffs.
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Old 12-22-2009, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CC.SD View Post
Winning playoff games=not easy. One less playoff game to win to get to the Super Bowl.
This is the correct answer imo.

Along the lines the OP said, this decade, 12 of the 18 super bowl teams came from the #1 or #2 seeds. Over 9 years thats 36 teams have had a 1st round bye, 12 made the SB (1 out of 3 teams). Over the past 9 years, 72 have not had a 1st round bye, 4 have made the super bowl (1 out of 18). I'll take the bye week any day I can get it.

Granted, the 1st round bye teams are generally better then the others, but those are big number differences. If anyone wants to chart out the record of teams in each playoff spot that might be interesting to see too.

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Old 12-22-2009, 12:28 PM    (permalink
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I dont think that the bye is overlly important unless teams have injuries to get over. Teams like the Colts who notoriously rest their starters don't need the bye as they have been rested once playoffs have been secured normally. The important thing is homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, particularly if you are a dome team. Teams like the Saints and Colts will greatly benefit from not having to go to places like Green Bay, New England etc
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:14 PM    (permalink
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Try playing the Patriots in Foxborough in January.
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:19 PM    (permalink
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Try playing the Patriots in Foxborough in January.
Ask Peyton Manning how much he likes it. (Or the Raiders )

Honestly, I did an analysis a while back and it clearly showed that weather effects QB production. I should post it here... I know it sounds like a no-brainer, but the importance is that dome teams suck on the roads against "weather" teams.
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Ive stated in a previous thread of mine, that I feel that it hurts you more than it helps you nowadays.

Im curious to see how this pans out this year. I think it hurts you bc your coordinators are often times being interviewed during the bye week and they don't focus on their gameplan, they focus more on landing another job.

that lack of preparation hurts your team. and it shows on gameday.
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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Ive stated in a previous thread of mine, that I feel that it hurts you more than it helps you nowadays.

Im curious to see how this pans out this year. I think it hurts you bc your coordinators are often times being interviewed during the bye week and they don't focus on their gameplan, they focus more on landing another job.

that lack of preparation hurts your team. and it shows on gameday.
I'm a proponent of the helpful bye week but there's no doubt that this insane practice needs to stop. I remain bitter about Cam Cameron showcasing his offense instead of running LT down the Pats throats in 06. Luckily this year we have no coordinators worth luring away.
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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Teams without first round bye 50% win percentage in the first round.

Teams with first round bye 100% win percentage in the first round.
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Old 12-22-2009, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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Ask Peyton Manning how much he likes it. (Or the Raiders )
That's why we really needed San Diego to lose against Cincy...
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Old 12-23-2009, 11:46 AM    (permalink
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2008 - 1-3
2007 - 2-2
2006 - 2-2
2005 - 2-2
2004 - 4-0

Total - 11-9

That's the records of teams with a bye in the first round of the playoffs in the divisional round.

2 out of the last 5 years a team with a first round bye has won the Super Bowl (New England 2004 and Pittsburgh 2008).

So, is it really that important?

(I realize this sounds ironic coming from a Vikings fan whose team is in danger of blowing their chance at a first round bye, lol)
On average 2 of 4 divisional teams move on. Out of the 8 teams that play on wild-card weekend only 2 of them make it past the divisional round. A 50/50 chance is way better than 25% chance.

The big advantage to a bye isn't having a week of or playing at home, its not having to play a good football team. Thats huge.

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Old 12-23-2009, 05:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Thumper View Post
Personally I would want the bye week but that is just because I'm an Eagles fan and the Eagles have a great history coming off of bye weeks under Andy Reid (14-0 counting playoffs).
Too bad you can't get a bye straight into the Super Bowl. Zing.
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Old 12-23-2009, 05:27 PM    (permalink
crossroads
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Originally Posted by descendency View Post
Ask Peyton Manning how much he likes it. (Or the Raiders )

Honestly, I did an analysis a while back and it clearly showed that weather effects QB production. I should post it here... I know it sounds like a no-brainer, but the importance is that dome teams suck on the roads against "weather" teams.
With the way things are shaping up this year though, most of the playoff games this season will probably played either in a dome thanks to New Orleans, Minny, Indy, and Arizona, or in likely not bad weather in San Diego.
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