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Old 12-22-2009, 06:06 PM    (permalink
descendency
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Default A QB comparison (dome versus field)

Let's look at two QBs:

QB1 - 63.063% completion, 7.380 yards per attempt, 21.155 attempts per touchdown, 32.106 attempts per INT, 40.630 % of points
QB2 - 65.985% completion, 7.893 yards per attempt, 15.878 attempts per touchdown, 39.611 attempts per INT, 46.244 % of points

QB2 is clearly better. He has a better completion percentage, more yards per attempt, fewer attempts per touchdown, more attempts per interception, and is a greater percent of the offense.

QB2 is Peyton Manning. QB1 is Peyton Manning as well. QB1 is Manning on the road outside of domes and QB2 is Manning in a dome on the road. It raises an interesting question... how much has the dome helped Manning?

Peyton Manning plays 10 games a year in a dome on average. In a 15 year career, that's 150 games in his career. At 30 attempts per game, you'll come up to around 100 more touchdowns in a career and 50 fewer interceptions in a career.

I'm not posting this to try and knock Peyton Manning. I think he just gives the most extreme example because of how much the Colts rely on him. However, he isn't the player who is most biased by domes.

Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees have a completion rating of over 5 points higher in domes. Brees and Roethlisberger also average more yards per attempt in domes and fewer attempts per interception.

Tom Brady is another QB who sees a fairly large discrepancy in domes versus field.

However, let me make this clear, these are *only* road games. I am not counting the fact that Manning plays 8 games a year in a dome at home or Brees, or anyone else. This only counts road games.

As a matter of fact of the 15 NFL QBs included in this, no one seemed to be unaffected by being in a dome. Only one QB was negatively effected (surprisingly) - Philip Rivers.

On average (the 15) QBs complete 2.5% more passes, 0.5 yard more per attempt, have 4 fewer attempts per touchdown, and 4 more attempts per interception. Kind of oddly, they also contribute 2% more to the offense (not really because coaches call fewer passes when their teams are outside in weather).

The 15 QBs selected were selected based on length of career (more games to make this more effective). They are Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck, Philip Rivers, and David Garrard (who was removed for being an out-lier, clearly such. No idea why he biases so easily).

Back to the original point: A QB who throws for 350 touchdowns and 250 INTs is percieved a lot differently than a QB who throws for 450 touchdowns and 200 INTs. Both are probably hall of fame QBs, but one is in the small room and the other is just another QB in the hall of fame. Domes clearly impact QBs and therefore offenses. It shouldn't be a surprise that the top teams this year are either in domes or in sunny areas with little weather. It shouldn't be a shocker that teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and such struggle to utilize the passing game as well (granted, they have pretty good passing games...).

I'm not crying unfair (both teams play on the same field ultimately) but it clearly does effect things. Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady could reverse roles with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had they been drafted in a different location.

Obviously, you are wondering "What about the Rams?" The answer to that is simple. They suck. Their front office doesn't know anything about talent and can't get a team together for their coaches to use. I mean, they played mini-golf to determine the #2 overall pick in 2007 (Chris Long) who doesn't fit their defense. The year before, they draft Adam Carriker. The year after, they over -draft (in my opinion) Jason Smith. (Granted, I had Andre Smith as my #1 run blocking tackle... I was wrong too.) That's 3 years in a row that they picked in the top 13, no good picks. No franchise changers. Now they're going to debate between Suh, Clausen, Bradford, McCoy (Gerald), Okung, Berry, and maybe a few others and I'm 99% sure they will make the wrong decision again.
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Old 12-22-2009, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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Nice effort in putting this all together, but I doubt anyone is going to be surprised by this information. We all know that if you take away wind, temperature & moisture then QB's have just that many fewer elements stopping them from doing their job.

However, I think it's interesting to know that Manning plays in a dome so often and it effects his stats so much. I now wonder how his career would look if he had been drafted by Green Bay, New England, Cleveland or any other cold weather home field team that didn't play in a dome. And that's not even taking into account the things that are so frequently brought up like supporting cast, scheme, etc.

Good read for me, anyways.
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Old 12-22-2009, 07:41 PM    (permalink
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It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.
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Old 12-22-2009, 08:22 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by OzTitan View Post
It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.
Then again, Peyton Manning has also done some pretty special things in games... like coming back from 21 multiple times in his career and even quite a bit in the 4th quarter.

Marino played 8 games a year in Miami... not a huge difference between Miami and a dome.

Brett Favre has had 8 in green bay, 1 in Chicago yearly. Tom Brady is the one I wonder about the most. 8 in New England, 1 in NY/NJ, 1 in Buffalo. And then potentially a worse if they play the AFC North when they play Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. That's 12 games in a year that would be places where the elements are very rough. (8 at home, 2 division games, and 2 on the road)
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Old 12-22-2009, 11:39 PM    (permalink
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Then again, Peyton Manning has also done some pretty special things in games... like coming back from 21 multiple times in his career and even quite a bit in the 4th quarter.

Marino played 8 games a year in Miami... not a huge difference between Miami and a dome.

Brett Favre has had 8 in green bay, 1 in Chicago yearly. Tom Brady is the one I wonder about the most. 8 in New England, 1 in NY/NJ, 1 in Buffalo. And then potentially a worse if they play the AFC North when they play Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. That's 12 games in a year that would be places where the elements are very rough. (8 at home, 2 division games, and 2 on the road)
September and October in those locations really aren't that rough.
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Old 12-22-2009, 11:57 PM    (permalink
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QB 1 is still better than more than half of the QB's in the league. So really, this is moot. All I'm reading is Peyton is slightly less amazing on the road, outside than he is in his comfy home dome. I'm pretty amazed I must say.
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Old 12-23-2009, 12:06 AM    (permalink
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Peyton Manning plays 10 games a year in a dome on average. In a 15 year career, that's 150 games in his career. At 30 attempts per game, you'll come up to around 100 more touchdowns in a career and 50 fewer interceptions in a career.
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However, let me make this clear, these are *only* road games. I am not counting the fact that Manning plays 8 games a year in a dome at home or Brees, or anyone else. This only counts road games.
OP if you don't mind, explain what I highlighted in red to me. If you take away his 8 home games, he only has 8 more games in the year, thus how does he average 10 games in a dome every year?

Or are you saying that overall, he averages 10 games in a dome, but the stats you took were only from road games?

That may also shed some light onto Scottyboy's post:

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Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
QB 1 is still better than more than half of the QB's in the league. So really, this is moot. All I'm reading is Peyton is slightly less amazing on the road, outside than he is in his comfy home dome. I'm pretty amazed I must say.
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Old 12-23-2009, 12:25 AM    (permalink
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Texans play in a dome, and they are more the likely to play one other team in a dome.

edit: wait yeah...how do you only take road stats yet average 10 games in a dome?
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Old 12-23-2009, 01:23 AM    (permalink
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The stats he posted were only for road games, just because it's more likely for a QB to be better at home than on the road, because of crowd noise and such, and he didn't want that to skew the data. He said Manning plays 10 games/year in a dome, because on average, he does.

Also with Rivers, I think one reason his stats might be down in a dome is because I imagine he doesn't have much experience in one. No one in the AFC West plays in a dome, no one in the East, no one in the North, and then two in the South. I imagine most of his dome experience is limited to once, maybe twice per year. And he's only been a starter for like four years. Also, three road games per season are against Denver, Oakland and KC. Neither of these teams have been good on defense consistently since he's been in the league. And when Denver is good defensively, he kills them anyway.

Excellent job putting this together, though.
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Old 12-23-2009, 02:43 AM    (permalink
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OP if you don't mind, explain what I highlighted in red to me. If you take away his 8 home games, he only has 8 more games in the year, thus how does he average 10 games in a dome every year?

Or are you saying that overall, he averages 10 games in a dome, but the stats you took were only from road games?

That may also shed some light onto Scottyboy's post:
10 games per year in a dome. 8 at home, 1 at houston, and 1 somewhere else.

The stats are only over road games, but when I talk about his career impact (the 100/50 numbers) I apply it to full seasons (Both home and road). I assume they play at least as well at home as on the road (which is seemingly true for everyone except Eli Manning... lol).

edit: As was mentioned, I exclude home games because the home environment should help a QB. Since Peyton and a few others play in domes at home this could cause a bias in the numbers. I could also cause a bias based on how poorly some QBs might play on the road versus at home, but I don't think so.

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Old 12-23-2009, 09:51 AM    (permalink
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Some good work there.

I wonder if there someway to factor in who they play. For instance, I imagine that Aaron Rodgers looks pretty good in domes given that the majority of his starts are against the Vikes and Lions who have both been pretty poor against the pass.
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Old 12-23-2009, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by OzTitan View Post
It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.
in all fairness Oz he puts in so many hours outside of football he lives and breaths what he does, if he didnt put in the effort he wouldnt be as good at all
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Old 12-23-2009, 12:40 PM    (permalink
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Theres no question that playing in a dome has inflated his stats. Thats the case with every qb. A dome will always help your accuracy.

Having said that, this is Peyton Manning. So I don't know if you can really say that it effected him greatly.

Im curious to see his numbers in the northeast in November and December and January. Those #s are interesting to me.
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Old 12-24-2009, 01:53 AM    (permalink
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This isn't just about Peyton Manning.

Consider someone who is "borderline" hall of fame, Kurt Warner. Warner's best years were in St Louis (dome) and Arizona (dome). He has a similar "assist" from the dome factor as Peyton Manning (Warner gets a small amount more from the dome, but it's negligible). If he gets into the HoF, it will likely be because of the dome. If he doesn't, it'll likely be because he didn't last long enough at a high level.

I like Kurt Warner a lot, but if he played in Green Bay or Chicago instead of St Louis and Arizona, I can't see him as a hall of famer.
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Old 12-24-2009, 07:34 AM    (permalink
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Im curious to see his numbers in the northeast in November and December and January. Those #s are interesting to me.
They aren't good aside from the game against Baltimore where he threw 4 TDs on 17 attempts. I would even go as far as saying that they are bad outside of that game. The schedule makers have been very kind to him.

I had a huge post laying out all the December and January games he's playing in since 1999 but then pressed back so I lost the post. I'm kind of down now that happened. I'll simplify it.

Peyton Manning in the Northeast in December and January.

2009:
@ Buffalo Week 17. A game in which he may not play after halftime.

2008:
None.

2007:
@ Baltimore Week 14. W 44-20
13/17, 249 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

2006:
@ Baltimore Divisional Round. W 15-6
15/30, 170 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

2005:
None.

2004:
@ New England Divisional Round. L 3-20
27/42, 238 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

2003:
@ New England AFC Championship Game. L 14-24
23/47, 237 Yards, 1 TD, 4 INT

2002:
@ New York Jets Wild Card Round. L 0-41
14/31, 137 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

2001:
@ Baltimore Week 13. L 27-39
27/48, 310 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

2000:
@ New York Jets Week 14. L 17-27
27/51, 339 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

1999:
@ Buffalo Week 17. L 6-31. Homefield already clinched.
18/29, 163 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

1998, Rookie Year:
None.

You be the judge.

The numbers: 164/295 , 1843Yards, 9 TD, 12 INT in 8 games with 1 pending.
On average, per game: 20.5/36.9, 230.4 Yards, 1.1 TD, 1.5 INT

Very mediocre numbers. Who should we compare them to? Kurt Warner's history in the Northeast in December and January? There has to be a bench mark for this. What other long tenure future HOF or already HOF QBs have played in a dome/ fair weather for most of their career?
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Old 12-24-2009, 07:45 AM    (permalink
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This isn't just about Peyton Manning.

Consider someone who is "borderline" hall of fame, Kurt Warner. Warner's best years were in St Louis (dome) and Arizona (dome). He has a similar "assist" from the dome factor as Peyton Manning (Warner gets a small amount more from the dome, but it's negligible). If he gets into the HoF, it will likely be because of the dome. If he doesn't, it'll likely be because he didn't last long enough at a high level.

I like Kurt Warner a lot, but if he played in Green Bay or Chicago instead of St Louis and Arizona, I can't see him as a hall of famer.
Some consider this to be Brett Favre's best season so far. He's played 9 of the 14 games this year in a dome.

Those 4 games not in a dome, take a peak at his numbers.
98/156, 62.8%, 1104 Yards, 6 TD, 3 INT

On the season.
312/460, 67.8%, 3565 Yards, 27 TD, 7 INT

Just throwing that out there.
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Old 12-24-2009, 09:46 AM    (permalink
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They aren't good aside from the game against Baltimore where he threw 4 TDs on 17 attempts. I would even go as far as saying that they are bad outside of that game. The schedule makers have been very kind to him.

I had a huge post laying out all the December and January games he's playing in since 1999 but then pressed back so I lost the post. I'm kind of down now that happened. I'll simplify it.

Peyton Manning in the Northeast in December and January.

2009:
@ Buffalo Week 17. A game in which he may not play after halftime.

2008:
None.

2007:
@ Baltimore Week 14. W 44-20
13/17, 249 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

2006:
@ Baltimore Divisional Round. W 15-6
15/30, 170 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

2005:
None.

2004:
@ New England Divisional Round. L 3-20
27/42, 238 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

2003:
@ New England AFC Championship Game. L 14-24
23/47, 237 Yards, 1 TD, 4 INT

2002:
@ New York Jets Wild Card Round. L 0-41
14/31, 137 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

2001:
@ Baltimore Week 13. L 27-39
27/48, 310 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

2000:
@ New York Jets Week 14. L 17-27
27/51, 339 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

1999:
@ Buffalo Week 17. L 6-31. Homefield already clinched.
18/29, 163 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

1998, Rookie Year:
None.

You be the judge.

The numbers: 164/295 , 1843Yards, 9 TD, 12 INT in 8 games with 1 pending.
On average, per game: 20.5/36.9, 230.4 Yards, 1.1 TD, 1.5 INT

Very mediocre numbers. Who should we compare them to? Kurt Warner's history in the Northeast in December and January? There has to be a bench mark for this. What other long tenure future HOF or already HOF QBs have played in a dome/ fair weather for most of their career?
this is good stuff. let's compare this to Tom Brady. i bet his cold weather #s are much better.

this is one of the more overlooked stats in football. how many of the "elite" # having qbs in the league play in domes/good weather?

its much harder to put up #s when you play for cold weather teams. it makes Brady's stats that much more impressive.

everyone tends to overlook this tidbit.

thats why stats never tell the whole story.
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Old 12-24-2009, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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Let's play the other card; the defense benefits just as greatly from the dome conditions as does the QB and his offense. The defensive ends I'm thinking in particular, take the Colts duo of Freeney and Mathis, or a hybrid player like Dockett for example. Just another perspective to consider as well.
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Old 12-24-2009, 09:58 AM    (permalink
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Let's play the other card; the defense benefits just as greatly from the dome conditions as does the QB and his offense. The defensive ends I'm thinking in particular, take the Colts duo of Freeney and Mathis, or a hybrid player like Dockett for example. Just another perspective to consider as well.
this is true, and a very good point.

but your example is not good, bc Freeney and Mathis benefit greatly from playing on carpet. Their whole game is based on speed, and bad weather, sloppy field etc hampers their speed.

But a team like the Patriots, who are a strength based defense, they surely benefit.

this is a very good thread.
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Old 12-24-2009, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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this is good stuff. let's compare this to Tom Brady. i bet his cold weather #s are much better.

this is one of the more overlooked stats in football. how many of the "elite" # having qbs in the league play in domes/good weather?

its much harder to put up #s when you play for cold weather teams. it makes Brady's stats that much more impressive.

everyone tends to overlook this tidbit.

thats why stats never tell the whole story.
Tom Brady is actually very good when the weather is below 41 degrees. Here are his numbers:

91.9 rating, 62.2% and 2.4:1 TD:INT

Compare that to Manning in the same situation:

86.9 rating, 61.3% and 1.4:1 TD:INT
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Old 12-24-2009, 10:15 AM    (permalink
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this is true, and a very good point.

but your example is not good, bc Freeney and Mathis benefit greatly from playing on carpet. Their whole game is based on speed, and bad weather, sloppy field etc hampers their speed.

But a team like the Patriots, who are a strength based defense, they surely benefit.

this is a very good thread.
Sorry, it was flawed logic on my part. How could Freeney + Mathis benefit from a surface they are already accustomed to? It would be of great benefit to the opponents in this case, of course, like the Pats as you mentioned, and your Giants whenever they travel to the Jones' palace.
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Old 12-24-2009, 10:26 AM    (permalink
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The Vikings and Saints have it very easy this year with the playoffs. Neither team has to travel to the cold weather of Philly, Green Bay, or even the Meadowlands if the Giants somehow sneak in if that were the case and even if they win, they play in another dome. That of course, is barring two upsets on that side of the bracket, which I for one am rooting for, for obvious reasons.

Before we look at Brady's stats, I would like to point out that half, if not more, are at home where crowd noise is a non-factor. He also plays there on a week to week basis so the climate adaptation isn't that as drastic as one of Peyton Manning or any other dome/fair weather QB. Or maybe that's what we want to look at to see exactly how drastic the adaptation is. A lot of people have or had Brady and Manning 1a and 1b ranked at the top of their QB list sometime in the last ten years so it'd be interesting to see how they're matched up.

I'll throw the stats up here after work if no one else compiles them.
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Old 12-24-2009, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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Sorry, it was flawed logic on my part. How could Freeney + Mathis benefit from a surface they are already accustomed to? It would be of great benefit to the opponents in this case, of course, like the Pats as you mentioned, and your Giants whenever they travel to the Jones' palace.
Speed is accentuated on carpet. So if your game is based on speed, you're going to play better on carpet. Thats why the Colts draft the way they do. They are big on measurables and in particular, speed. Its bc they can maximize that speed at their home games bc of that carpet.

If your team is faster than the other team, you get in and out of your breaks faster etc, whatever makes you faster will benefit you vs your opponent bc of the relative advantage you get over your opponent in that situation.
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Old 12-24-2009, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Tom Brady is actually very good when the weather is below 41 degrees. Here are his numbers:

91.9 rating, 62.2% and 2.4:1 TD:INT

Compare that to Manning in the same situation:

86.9 rating, 61.3% and 1.4:1 TD:INT
To be fair, Manning's numbers aren't entirely bad according to that stat. You expect somewhat of a dropoff in production regardless.


Whats interesting to me is seeing how qbs fare in very windy and difficult stadiums to throw in, like Chicago and NY.

Another thing to factor in is scheme. Naturally a WCO qb will have better numbers in bad conditions compared to a Air Coryell qb.

I firmly believe that if youre a team that plays in a windy cold weather area, having a big armed qb and running a WCO are the most effective ways of having a pass oriented team in those conditions.

Of course, traditionally, most cold weather windy teams have based their offense on the run game and PA pass. but if you want a pass oriented offense in those conditions, I think the WCO gives you the best shot. You also need your qb to have a big arm.
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Old 12-24-2009, 11:15 AM    (permalink
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I think an underlying theme of this thread is how different teams need to draft according to their situations.

For example, many people look back at the Giants taking Phil Simms over Joe Montana and say that was a bad move in hindsight, but let's be real, would Montana be as good in NY as he was in SF? (he'd still be better than Simms most likely, but you can see why he was passed up)

Montana had horrible games in NY during December during his career. Imagine him playing 8 home games a year for NY? He wouldn't be the same qb.


Its why the Jets passed on Matt Leinart. Its why the Giants had Eli Manning and Roethlisberger as their 1 and 2 qbs on their list, and had no interest in Phillip Rivers.

Its why the AFC North and the NFC East are traditionally defense oriented run oriented teams while you have more of the successful passing offenses in league history coming from the West Coast and dome teams.

You draft according to your location and its limitations, and according to who you play in your division.

If you play a run heavy division, you put more emphasis on run defenders. If youre playing a high powered offensive division, you need to put more emphasis on CBs.

It all comes down to what you are, and you have to identify it and draft accordingly.

I think for this reason, you see a discrepancy in how teams draft. Cold weather teams tend to favor defense and the run game, whereas warm weather/dome teams can focus more on scoring and building around the qb.

Now the real question is, who has the advantage in today's league? It seems more than ever, scoring and passing the ball are dominating the game (during the regular season at least. im still a firm believer that defense and the run game dominate the playoffs). So does this shift the competitive advantage over to teams who have a better chance of developing qbs in warm weather/domes?

Was there ever a competitive advantage one way or the other to begin with?

Its something to think about.

At the very least, I think it makes for good discussion.
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