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Old 07-06-2014, 10:23 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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Originally Posted by The Alex View Post
That article highlights a HUGE issue I have with advanced statistics. Fangraphs has his WAR in the top-5 in the NL. Other sites have him way below guys like Wainwright, Kershaw, Cueto... These stats have no meaning when they aren't even calculated the same way. You have a site that has him having an all-time great season. I have one that shows him being average at best.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 07-06-2014, 11:27 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
That article highlights a HUGE issue I have with advanced statistics. Fangraphs has his WAR in the top-5 in the NL. Other sites have him way below guys like Wainwright, Kershaw, Cueto... These stats have no meaning when they aren't even calculated the same way. You have a site that has him having an all-time great season. I have one that shows him being average at best.
FanGraphs uses fWAR (because it's based on FIP), BBRef uses rWAR (based on xRA). Both just call it WAR. Both sites explain the differences.

WAR is cumulative. xFIP is probably the most telling stat for pitching right now. Strasburg is #2 behind Kershaw. His FIP is #4.
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Old 07-06-2014, 11:31 PM    (permalink
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Except Strasburg's been better.
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by nepg View Post
Except Strasburg's been better.
No he hasn't, you're reading the stats wrong. He has him beat in xFIP, which is a predictor stat not a stat showing the basis for accomplishments that season. Wainwright has absolutely been the best non Kershaw guy in the NL, and only Cueto is close.
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
That article highlights a HUGE issue I have with advanced statistics. Fangraphs has his WAR in the top-5 in the NL. Other sites have him way below guys like Wainwright, Kershaw, Cueto... These stats have no meaning when they aren't even calculated the same way. You have a site that has him having an all-time great season. I have one that shows him being average at best.
Unless you're using ERA, there's no way you're reading that.
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I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 07-07-2014, 12:27 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
No he hasn't, you're reading the stats wrong. He has him beat in xFIP, which is a predictor stat not a stat showing the basis for accomplishments that season. Wainwright has absolutely been the best non Kershaw guy in the NL, and only Cueto is close.
It's not a predictor start, it's a stat
that further balances park size differences.
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:31 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by The Alex View Post
Unless you're using ERA, there's no way you're reading that.
A WAR of .5 and a negative adjusted WAA seem pretty average to me. 30th in WHIP isnt too pretty. And you bring up FIP, Strasburg doesnt even lead his team in that, Zimmerman does.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 07-07-2014, 02:13 AM    (permalink
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Chris Sale and Justin Upton

no wait give it to McGehee, yep. No **** that the all-star game means something and it's in Minnesota give it to Justin Morneau.

Chris Sale and Justin Morneau
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Old 07-07-2014, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by nepg View Post
It's not a predictor start, it's a stat
that further balances park size differences.
That's not accurate. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates because they often balance out around 9-10%. However, xFIP does not measure what a pitcher has actually done because pitchers obviously gave up those home runs. It is an estimation of what a pitcher will do in the future if his HR/FB rate normalizes, as is generally expected.

There are some pretty significant flaws with xFIP though, (just as there are with FIP) as some pitchers seem to have an ability to limit their HR/FB rate (Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain earlier in his career).
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Old 07-07-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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That's not accurate. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates because they often balance out around 9-10%. However, xFIP does not measure what a pitcher has actually done because pitchers obviously gave up those home runs. It is an estimation of what a pitcher will do in the future if his HR/FB rate normalizes, as is generally expected.

There are some pretty significant flaws with xFIP though, (just as there are with FIP) as some pitchers seem to have an ability to limit their HR/FB rate (Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain earlier in his career).
This is almost all true and almost all wrong at the same time. Replace xFIP with FIP and you are correct.

xFIP is based off of batted ball type which requires judgment calls. FIP is stats-based BABIP, BB rate, K rate and HR/FB.
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Old 07-07-2014, 02:15 PM    (permalink
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This is almost all true and almost all wrong at the same time. Replace xFIP with FIP and you are correct.

xFIP is based off of batted ball type which requires judgment calls. FIP is stats-based BABIP, BB rate, K rate and HR/FB.
FIP is based entirely on BB, K rate and HR/FB. xFIP is based entirely on BB, K and a normalized HR/FB rate. Obviously the number of flyballs is important.

FIP formula: FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

xFIP formula: xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
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Old 07-07-2014, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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Deep is correct, NIP is not.
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Old 07-07-2014, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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It's an SWDC nerdoff.
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Old 07-07-2014, 03:34 PM    (permalink
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It's an SWDC nerdoff.
It's not official until Brody weighs in. Until then, it's just child's play nerdery.
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Old 07-07-2014, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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The first half of this page made me feel stupid.
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Old 07-07-2014, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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FIP is based entirely on BB, K rate and HR/FB. xFIP is based entirely on BB, K and a normalized HR/FB rate. Obviously the number of flyballs is important.

FIP formula: FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

xFIP formula: xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
What Deep says. Again, you can't knock Wainwright for having the skills to maintain a low HR rate this year, which is why his FIP is a better measurable right now. You can use SIERA, which Strasburg is at the top for in the NL (I think), but that still is closer in relation to xFIP than FIP.
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Old 07-07-2014, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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And if I roll doubles then I get to go again.
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Old 07-07-2014, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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What Deep says. Again, you can't knock Wainwright for having the skills to maintain a low HR rate this year, which is why his FIP is a better measurable right now. You can use SIERA, which Strasburg is at the top for in the NL (I think), but that still is closer in relation to xFIP than FIP.
What you can say is that Wainwright's current HR/FB rate is unsustainable, though, especially given his career norms.

I like SIERA a lot and don't really understand why it isn't used more. It's a lot more complex than xFIP, but all the complexities make sense.
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Old 07-07-2014, 08:16 PM    (permalink
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Glad to see Kyle Seagar get added to the All Star team.
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Old 07-07-2014, 09:29 PM    (permalink
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It's not official until Brody weighs in. Until then, it's just child's play nerdery.
It's amazing how bad Brody is at all fantasy sports.
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Old 07-07-2014, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 View Post
It's amazing how bad Brody is at all fantasy sports.


I'm actually good at Fantasy football and hockey. Basketball I teeter between good and bad. Baseball doesn't count.
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Old 07-07-2014, 09:59 PM    (permalink
bearsfan_51
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I bolieve it does.
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Old 07-08-2014, 01:54 AM    (permalink
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feels like 2002 in that the Angels can't make up any damn ground on Oakland no matter how well they play. Of course, I'd gladly take the 2002 ending again

5 straight wins and can't gain a damn game because Oakland has won 5 straight
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
Matt Carpenter shouldn't be there as well.
He deserves to be starting over Aramis.
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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He deserves to be starting over Aramis.
You won't find me justifying Aramis as an all-star.
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