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Old 03-27-2010, 10:50 AM    (permalink
Tampa 2 4 life
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
Porcello was the 2nd best prospect in that class at the time, and he was not at the same talent level as everyone else.
He was clearly a top 3 talent, but he wasn't so great that he deserved his outlandish demands. That's what I'm saying.
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Old 03-27-2010, 10:52 AM    (permalink
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I wish the Rays took damn near anyone instead of Wade Townsend, Josh Hamilton, or Dewon Brazelton.
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Old 03-27-2010, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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I wish the O's took Lincecum instead of Billy Rowell :(
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Tampa 2 4 life View Post
He was clearly a top 3 talent, but he wasn't so great that he deserved his outlandish demands. That's what I'm saying.
He did deserve his outlandish demands, just look at the pitchers in front of him:

David Price- probably going to break out sometime this year but was the consensus number 1 anyway
Daniel Moskos- back end starter at best
Ross Detwilker- probably a back end starter...maybe
Casey Weathers- coming off Tommy John
Jarrod Parker- just had Tommy John
Madison Bumgarner- Where Art Thou Velocity?
Blake Beavan- great control but still doesn't strike out enough to be more than a back end starter
Joe Savery- pretty mediocre pitcher in the minors, doubtful to ever amount to anything
Tim Alderson- Velocity issues part 2, except his value dips lower and lower consistently
Nick Schmidt- had Tommy John in 2008, was pretty awful in High A last year after starting well in A; probably won't amount to much
Michael Main- has the chance to be a solid starter but viral infection destroyed him last year
Aaron Poreda- mediocre secondary stuff will limit him to a mid rotation guy at best
James Simmons- More mediocrityyyyyyyy.

At the time Porcello was the most polished high school arm easy and at 21, he's pretty much already better than most of the people above him are ever going to be. Only guys with legit star potential above him are Parker (if he bounces back well from his TJ surgery), Bumgarner (if he finds his velocity), and Price.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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Wow looking back at those pitchers makes me puke. Not the draft to find one apparently.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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You did forget Aumont and Withrow though who also have some upside.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
You did forget Aumont and Withrow though who also have some upside.
Aumont is probably going to end up being a great reliever, something not nearly as valuable as a good starter. Withrow has some upside I suppose, but I don't really know what to expect from him.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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At the time Porcello was the most polished high school arm easy and at 21, he's pretty much already better than most of the people above him are ever going to be.
Didn't he put up a 4.77 FIP last year? He's obviously going to get better, but it's a bit presumptuous of you to say that nobody except for those 3 is ever going to put up 4th/5th starter numbers.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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Aumont is probably going to end up being a great reliever, something not nearly as valuable as a good starter. Withrow has some upside I suppose, but I don't really know what to expect from him.
I agree with you but just wanted to mention the other 2 "bigger" names.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Didn't he put up a 4.77 FIP last year? He's obviously going to get better, but it's a bit presumptuous of you to say that nobody except for those 3 is ever going to put up 4th/5th starter numbers.
His FIP was high because he was a groundout pitcher who didn't strike out too many. FIP always kills groundball pitchers.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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His FIP was high because he was a groundout pitcher who didn't strike out too many. FIP always kills groundball pitchers.
tRA didn't like him either.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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Moskos projects more as a reliever/closer in the majors. Reason why he started the past few seasons is to build up his arm and his repitore(sp).
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:55 PM    (permalink
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Didn't he put up a 4.77 FIP last year? He's obviously going to get better, but it's a bit presumptuous of you to say that nobody except for those 3 is ever going to put up 4th/5th starter numbers.
FIP doesn't take into play his great ground ball numbers, which is why his xFIP is 4.32 aka lower. The predictions that he has for this season are ******* stupid though, and only Bill James seemingly gives him an actual improvement.

You're just mad that he's going to be better than David Price.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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FIP doesn't take into play his great ground ball numbers, which is why his xFIP is 4.32 aka lower. The predictions that he has for this season are ******* stupid though, and only Bill James seemingly gives him an actual improvement.

You're just mad that he's going to be better than David Price.
xFIP has nothing to do with groundballs btw.

You're just mad David Price has upside.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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FIP doesn't take into play his great ground ball numbers, which is why his xFIP is 4.32 aka lower. The predictions that he has for this season are ******* stupid though, and only Bill James seemingly gives him an actual improvement.

You're just mad that he's going to be better than David Price.
I just took a look at the projections. It's weird they all have him pitching fewer innings this year.
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Old 03-27-2010, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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I wish the Rays took damn near anyone instead of Wade Townsend, Josh Hamilton, or Dewon Brazelton.
him & the guy who has the longest hitting streak in Tampa Bay history are my favorite rays all time..... Quinton McCrackenn
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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Can someone explain xFIP real quick?
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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xFIP has nothing to do with groundballs btw.

You're just mad David Price has upside.
Less upside than Porcello has. Porcello already has very good control (NOT THAT HARD TO DO PRICE) with a great ability to induce ground balls and he showed in Game 163 that he has the stuff to strike out people. Price is almost 3 and a half years older than Porcello.
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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Can someone explain xFIP real quick?
FIP but with league average HR/FB.
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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Can someone explain xFIP real quick?
FIP with a normalized homer rate.
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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Thanks guys. Porcello's E.R.A. might go back a little this year but most of his other ratios should get better. I think we'll see his K rate go up.
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Old 03-27-2010, 05:08 PM    (permalink
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There are several sinker pitchers that have good FIP. Namely Lowe. Porcello's high FIP may have something with him being inexperience in the bigs.

xFIP measures flyout and hr. I believe.
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Old 03-27-2010, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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Interesting, Espn or MLBN announced last week that Granderson was our CF but Girardi has yet to decide on this.
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Old 03-27-2010, 07:39 PM    (permalink
Xiomera
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Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
Thanks guys. Porcello's E.R.A. might go back a little this year but most of his other ratios should get better. I think we'll see his K rate go up.
Projected stat line: 22 wins, 250 IP, 275 K, 1.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

How's that look?
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Old 03-27-2010, 07:41 PM    (permalink
Brodeur
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Originally Posted by Xiomera View Post
Projected stat line: 22 wins, 250 IP, 275 K, 1.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

How's that look?
You're being way too conservative. I'd go with 280 innings and 345 strikeouts, along with two separate streaks of zero runs allowed in 95 innings.
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