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Old 04-05-2011, 01:38 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Cincinnati fans have to realize that they are a small market city and in order for a small market team to be successful, the owner and management team must be excellent.
The fact that the NFL is (historically, and presumably in the future) a league with a salary cap (and floor) and revenue sharing, the gulf between "small market" teams and "large market" teams is not very big. Stadium amenities and quality affect your gate revenue significantly more than "how many people live close by" and huge TV contracts split 32 ways mean that most everybody has enough cash.

The only thing that "small market" can really hurt you in, in the modern NFL is "it will be difficult to attract free agents", but we've pretty much conclusively seen that players will go anywhere that they're offered the best deal.

But ultimately, teams need to have good management teams to succeed regardless of how big their home markets are. I mean, SF-OAK is the 6th largest media market (NY, LA, CHI, PHI, DAL are top 5) in the country, and it's not as though the Raiders or the 49ers have set the standard for excellence over the past several years.
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Old 04-05-2011, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by GoRavens View Post
Draft AJ Green and some solid lineman. And if that fails, then why not draft Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, or Brandon Weeden?
Is Brandon Weeden a serious suggestion? He is going to be 28 years old by the time of the 2012 Draft.
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Old 04-05-2011, 01:40 PM    (permalink
Scott Wright
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Brandon Weeden is a poor-man's Chris Weinke, and that's not a good thing.
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Old 04-05-2011, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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Because all of those "flaws" are overblown and/or completely non-existant in reality. Did that really need to be explained?
So, Newton didn't really accumulate 14 driving infractions in a year at Florida until they took his license away? He was not found in possession of a dorm mate's stolen laptop which had been painted over black with the words "Cam Newton" painted on top of that in LARGE WHITE LETTERS? He did not stupidly register for a session using the stolen laptop which enabled police to track it to him? He did not throw the laptop out of a second floor window once they stepped out for a moment? He did not turn in multiple fraudulent academic papers to the point that the University felt compelled to seek expulsion of a high profile athlete for chronic cheating?

So he didn't have a Wonderlic score below the acceptable margin for an NFL QB? So he didn't go through an important interview with Mike Mayock and call him "Mr. McShay"? So he didn't tell Peter King he considered himself an entertainer and an icon? None of this happened, his character is beyond reproach, he is a Rhodes Scholar in waiting. Even though he trained off by himself in secrecy for the past few months (didn't want to share his PEDs I suppose), if HE HAD TRAINED WITH FELLOW PLAYERS like everyone else, he might have been a real popular guy and the leader of the group. But he didn't, so we'll never know.
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Old 04-05-2011, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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So, Newton didn't really accumulate 14 driving infractions in a year at Florida until they took his license away? He was not found in possession of a dorm mate's stolen laptop which had been painted over black with the words "Cam Newton" painted on top of that in LARGE WHITE LETTERS? He did not stupidly register for a session using the stolen laptop which enabled police to track it to him? He did not throw the laptop out of a second floor window once they stepped out for a moment? He did not turn in multiple fraudulent academic papers to the point that the University felt compelled to seek expulsion of a high profile athlete for chronic cheating?

So he didn't have a Wonderlic score below the acceptable margin for an NFL QB? So he didn't go through an important interview with Mike Mayock and call him "Mr. McShay"? So he didn't tell Peter King he considered himself an entertainer and an icon? None of this happened, his character is beyond reproach, he is a Rhodes Scholar in waiting. Even though he trained off by himself in secrecy for the past few months (didn't want to share his PEDs I suppose), if HE HAD TRAINED WITH FELLOW PLAYERS like everyone else, he might have been a real popular guy and the leader of the group. But he didn't, so we'll never know.
Ha, let's not get side-tracked by facts! :o)
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Old 04-05-2011, 02:16 PM    (permalink
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people can hate on Cam all day long. He's going #1. and there's nothing any of us can do to stop it.
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Old 04-05-2011, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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people can hate on Cam all day long. He's going #1. and there's nothing any of us can do to stop it.
That would be the worst #1 overall pick (initial analysis) since I've been doing this.
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Old 04-05-2011, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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That would be the worst #1 overall pick (initial analysis) since I've been doing this.
I'm not of the belief that Newton cant be a good QB at the next level but i agree it would be a terrible pick there. Carolina without a 2nd round pick is out of their minds if they dont trade down.
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Old 04-05-2011, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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That would be the worst #1 overall pick (initial analysis) since I've been doing this.
It would be hard to get worse than Jamarcus Russell. With megatron sitting there.

Scott you know the draft is not guided by logic. It's 32 maniacs passing cards to a desk.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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That would be the worst #1 overall pick (initial analysis) since I've been doing this.
Yeah, but it just takes 1 GM who thinks he can get the best out of him for him to go #1. Can you say for certainty that he will flop, I doubt it.
Certainly there are serious question marks, but after all is said and done, he could still turnout to be a star.
I for one, see a lot of positives in Newton, but I'm not in a real position to judge his character and in the end, it is his character that will ultimately decide his draft spot.
What is it that those on NFL say' it is his character on the field that counts not his character off the field' Does he let his issues bother him on the field, is what counts in the end. Roethlisberger may be an idiot off the field but on the field, he is a winner and that is all that matters.
So, even if he does flop in the end, I really question your reasoning on this one.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:07 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Scott you know the draft is not guided by logic. It's 32 maniacs passing cards to a desk.
General managers aren't maniacs, they're highly paid personnel experts with large scouting staffs. Each of them is significantly better informed about virtually every prospect than any of us are.

It's not inconceivable that Newton goes number one, but that's because coaches and GMs tend to be egomaniacs of the sort "I can turn this guy into a player".
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:14 PM    (permalink
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General managers aren't maniacs, they're highly paid personnel experts with large scouting staffs. Each of them is significantly better informed about virtually every prospect than any of us are.

It's not inconceivable that Newton goes number one, but that's because coaches and GMs tend to be egomaniacs of the sort "I can turn this guy into a player".
So they arent maniacs but egomaniacs, i'm sure that will make them feel a lot better.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:16 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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So they arent maniacs but egomaniacs, i'm sure that will make them feel a lot better.
Nobody gets to the highest level in this business without being very good at what they do, people who are very good at what they do tend to believe strongly in their competence, sometimes to the point of overconfidence. This is why free agency is so profitable for players.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:18 PM    (permalink
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Cincinnati fans have to realize that they are a small market city and in order for a small market team to be successful, the owner and management team must be excellent.
The fans already know this..it's the owner that doesn't realize it..lol
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:18 PM    (permalink
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Nobody gets to the highest level in this business without being very good at what they do, people who are very good at what they do tend to believe strongly in their competence, sometimes to the point of overconfidence. This is why free agency is so profitable for players.
I believe bitonti was joking, i sure was.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:20 PM    (permalink
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It would be hard to get worse than Jamarcus Russell. With megatron sitting there.

Scott you know the draft is not guided by logic. It's 32 maniacs passing cards to a desk.
I am just talking initially. Obviously JaMarcus Russell has become the gold standard for busts. Still, I think Russell was a much better prospect coming out than Newton is now.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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General managers aren't maniacs, they're highly paid personnel experts with large scouting staffs. Each of them is significantly better informed about virtually every prospect than any of us are.

It's not inconceivable that Newton goes number one, but that's because coaches and GMs tend to be egomaniacs of the sort "I can turn this guy into a player".

Not to mention that some owners with much less knowledge, will step in and meddle, demanding certain players be chosen.
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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I think Russell was a much better prospect coming out than Newton is now.
I agree with this assessment. Though, to be honest... I can't think of a player in this draft who would not be a weak #1 overall pick compared to the average year. Not saying that this is necessarily a bad draft, but we're really short on elite players this year.

And before anybody says Cam Newton is an elite player, he attempted 382 total passes in college!
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Old 04-05-2011, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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I am just talking initially. Obviously JaMarcus Russell has become the gold standard for busts. Still, I think Russell was a much better prospect coming out than Newton is now.
What would it take for a team to move up from 9 or 10 for that #1 pick? if we knew the exchange rate and assigned a few names i think people would see it's a no brainer to trade out of the that spot.
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Old 04-05-2011, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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What would it take for a team to move up from 9 or 10 for that #1 pick? if we knew the exchange rate and assigned a few names i think people would see it's a no brainer to trade out of the that spot.
The team moving up would need to include next year's first-round pick at a minimum besides swapping picks this year to get to No. 1. There's nobody in this draft I would pay that cost for myself.
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Old 04-05-2011, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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What would it take for a team to move up from 9 or 10 for that #1 pick? if we knew the exchange rate and assigned a few names i think people would see it's a no brainer to trade out of the that spot.
Carolina isn't going to trade out if they believe in any of the QB's. It doesn't matter what they would get, besides to trade out you need somebody willing to pay the high price of moving up that far and a team will only pay that kind of price for a QB, and you say there isn't one worth that pick so why would a team pay 2 firsts, 2 seconds and another 3 and/or 4th over 2 drafts, to draft either Gabbert or Newton.
Carolina is stuck with the pick so any talk about trading out just isn't going to happen.
Face it, the league averaged 2 trades a decade in the top 5 before rookie salaries skyrocketed so I don't think that a rookie wage scale will result in many top 5 trades.
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Old 04-05-2011, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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The team moving up would need to include next year's first-round pick at a minimum besides swapping picks this year to get to No. 1. There's nobody in this draft I would pay that cost for myself.
I was thinking a team like Dallas could trade their second this year and next and then move up to take Peterson or Dareus.

What i was also getting at was would you rather Newton at #1 or .........at #9 and #45 (whatever the Cowboys would be picking in the second). When you look at it that way to me it's a no brainer.
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Old 04-05-2011, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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I was thinking a team like Dallas could trade their second this year and next and then move up to take Peterson or Dareus.

What i was also getting at was would you rather Newton at #1 or .........at #9 and #45 (whatever the Cowboys would be picking in the second). When you look at it that way to me it's a no brainer.
Per the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart (which should once again become a reasonable guide if rookie salaries are controlled in the next CBA agreement), pick 1.1 is worth 3000 points. Pick 1.9 is worth 1350 points. That leaves Dallas owing 1650 points. That point value falls halfway between the 1.5 and 1.6 picks. If Carolina would take the trade of next year's first-round pick from Dallas plus just the swapping of first-round picks this year, Dallas wins the deal on points if they end up with the 6th pick of the draft next year or lower. Carolina wins on points if Dallas has the 5th pick or higher.

Dallas picks at 2.8 this year in the second round. That pick is worth 500 points. Pick 2.1 is only worth 580 points, so swapping first-round picks this year and sending their second round pick this year and next year will not be close to enough to entice Carolina to move as it's short by 470 points (which represents a mid-2nd round pick yet again)...based on this chart.
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Old 04-05-2011, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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i think the chart is really irrelevant in the case that carolina isn't sold on a qb. i'd be willing to bet that they'd take suboptimal value, if they don't see anyone they think is worth their only pick in the first two rounds.
Don't count on it. Any decision maker who takes substantially less than the trade value chart calls for is going to get grilled unmercifully by the media. Also, if the player who does eventually go #1 turns into a stud it could cost them their job and prevent them from ever getting another.

It would take a GM with a ton of job security to go out on that kind of limb.
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Old 04-05-2011, 06:20 PM    (permalink
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Don't count on it. Any decision maker who takes substantially less than the trade value chart calls for is going to get grilled unmercifully by the media. Also, if the player who does eventually go #1 turns into a stud it could cost them their job and prevent them from ever getting another.

It would take a GM with a ton of job security to go out on that kind of limb.
Other GMs and owners would be upset as well that an "agreed upon" measuring stick for draft day trades was disregarded. It would hamper Carolina in future draft pick deals. Mike Ditka was pretty much ostracized by the league after his insane Ricky Williams deal because it totally destroyed the draft value chart.
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