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Old 04-05-2011, 06:20 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
Don't count on it. Any decision maker who takes substantially less than the trade value chart calls for is going to get grilled unmercifully by the media. Also, if the player who does eventually go #1 turns into a stud it could cost them their job and prevent them from ever getting another.

It would take a GM with a ton of job security to go out on that kind of limb.
Well, the standard dodge is for the team who's trading a pick "for less than it's worth" is for the other team to include players in the deal, since their value isn't measured by any chart.

I mean, in 2009 the Browns traded 5 for 17, 52 and three players (Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff, and Abram Elam). According to the chart 5 is worth 1,700, and 17 and 52 are worth 950 and 380. So the difference in the picks exchanged is 370 points (which is worth a second round pick.) Coleman was released in February, Ratliff was released before the 2010 season, and Abram Elam is not really comparable to a second round pick.

So the Browns got taken to the cleaners in terms of value on that trade, but nobody really ripped them for it at the time since they got players (of uncertain value), and they wanted to trade out of the top 10 so badly.
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Old 04-06-2011, 01:13 AM    (permalink
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For me, there are too many things that can go wrong with Newton. The entourage, the ego, the ethical concerns, the lack of intelligence, the appearance (to me at least) that his physique is chemically enhanced, the thin resume from college, the blatant inaccuracy in his throwing sessions, the lack of any appearance of warmth or connection between himself and other prospects. It is the "weakest link" of the chain syndrome. Regardless of how much talent he has in other areas, one of these weak links can diminish or derail his potential. Most of the glaring draft busts of recent times became that way due to personality and off field issues, not lack of talent. Guys like Russell, Charles Rogers, Ryan Leaf, etc. failed from a character standpoint. There are just too many character questions surrounding Newton, and it only takes a real letdown in one area to knock the train off the tracks.

Someone recently rated Newton as having a 40% chance of succeeding in the NFL. I wouldn't rate him any more than that, and possibly less. The same person gave Blaine Gabbert 70% chance of succeeding. Not so much for what he is at the moment, but for what they think he can become. That also seems about right to me. If you look at recent "character risk" type players like Pacman Jones, Chris Henry, Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, etc. nearly all of them have had significant (to terminal) problems. It is very seldom that a prospect who is regarded as a character concern at the college level has a clean and fully realized NFL career. The issues don't go away, they just find a slightly different outlet.
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Old 04-06-2011, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
I was thinking a team like Dallas could trade their second this year and next and then move up to take Peterson or Dareus.

What i was also getting at was would you rather Newton at #1 or .........at #9 and #45 (whatever the Cowboys would be picking in the second). When you look at it that way to me it's a no brainer.
The #1 pick is valued at 3000 points on the draft chart.

Dallas #9 pick = 1350
Dallas #2 pick = 500
Dallas #3 pick = 225
Dallas #4 pick = 105
Dallas #1 pick next year = 500 (value of a 2nd rounder)
Dallas #2 pick next year = 250 (value of a 3rd rounder)

Now you begin to see why trading the #1 overall pick is extremely difficult and why Dallas will never attempt it.
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Old 04-06-2011, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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And before anybody says Cam Newton is an elite player, he attempted 382 total passes in college!
Tyron Smith only started 16 games at right tackle yet he's a supposed top 10 pick and best tackle in the land.

Right or Wrong, "Elite" is often in the eye of the beholder. If they can draft Cam Newton, put his "fake smile" on billboards all over charlotte and sell some tickets, that's an elite pick. Elite enough.
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Old 04-06-2011, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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The #1 pick is valued at 3000 points on the draft chart.

Dallas #9 pick = 1350
Dallas #2 pick = 500
Dallas #3 pick = 225
Dallas #4 pick = 105
Dallas #1 pick next year = 500 (value of a 2nd rounder)
Dallas #2 pick next year = 250 (value of a 3rd rounder)

Now you begin to see why trading the #1 overall pick is extremely difficult and why Dallas will never attempt it.
I think that the old chart is pretty much discounted now. Everyone has their own variation, and I think most teams change the value based on perceived quality of the talent pool per season.

Obviously, this sanity does not apply to Mike Brown and Al Davis.
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Old 04-06-2011, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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Tyron Smith only started 16 games at right tackle yet he's a supposed top 10 pick and best tackle in the land.

Right or Wrong, "Elite" is often in the eye of the beholder. If they can draft Cam Newton, put his "fake smile" on billboards all over charlotte and sell some tickets, that's an elite pick. Elite enough.
True, but the skill sets required for a tackle and a QB are completely different. It's like comparing a ditch digger to a backhoe operator. Both are in the earth moving business, but the skill sets are quite different in difficulty of mastery.
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Old 04-06-2011, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Tyron Smith only started 16 games at right tackle yet he's a supposed top 10 pick and best tackle in the land.

Right or Wrong, "Elite" is often in the eye of the beholder. If they can draft Cam Newton, put his "fake smile" on billboards all over charlotte and sell some tickets, that's an elite pick. Elite enough.
Mark Sanchez only started 16 games in college and he went top 10. That is what the post season determines especially for juniors who declare early.
The draft is always determined by the eye of the beholder. in McDaniels eye, Tebow was a 1st rounder and Alphonso Smith was worth a 1st round pick.
It just takes 1 GM/HC to pull the trigger.
Your right on, if Carolina drafts Newton, there will be 3 reasons, 1) because they believe he will be a franchise QB, 2) because he will fill their stadium and 3) his merchandise sales will bring millions of extra revenue to the team.
Of course you can also add 4) the GM weill keep his job for another 4 years.
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Old 04-06-2011, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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I think that the old chart is pretty much discounted now. Everyone has their own variation, and I think most teams change the value based on perceived quality of the talent pool per season.

Obviously, this sanity does not apply to Mike Brown and Al Davis.
That's a myth, this chart still holds true today although the strength of a draft can change the values along with the desperation of the teams trading. However, it won't vary by much unless a GM is prepared to take heavy criticism for his decision and put his job and career on the line. Very few are in a position to risk it so the chart remain in force for the most part.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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That's a myth, this chart still holds true today although the strength of a draft can change the values along with the desperation of the teams trading. However, it won't vary by much unless a GM is prepared to take heavy criticism for his decision and put his job and career on the line. Very few are in a position to risk it so the chart remain in force for the most part.
I know that New England doesn't use that antiquated chart.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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That's a myth, this chart still holds true today although the strength of a draft can change the values along with the desperation of the teams trading. However, it won't vary by much unless a GM is prepared to take heavy criticism for his decision and put his job and career on the line. Very few are in a position to risk it so the chart remain in force for the most part.
link or GTFO :)
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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Don't count on it. Any decision maker who takes substantially less than the trade value chart calls for is going to get grilled unmercifully by the media. Also, if the player who does eventually go #1 turns into a stud it could cost them their job and prevent them from ever getting another.

It would take a GM with a ton of job security to go out on that kind of limb.
haha yes. like in 2009 when the Browns gm traded with the jets. they gave up the 5th overall pick for the 17th and basically a few of the jets chumps.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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I know that New England doesn't use that antiquated chart.
I doubt you can say you know, however BB has the prestige to do what he wants on draft day and nobody will question his judgment. However, among those in charge of their teams drafts, few have BB's reputation and can get away from the norm.
I think I checked a few years ago and found that for the most part BB followed the draft chart but he certainly isn't forced to like most team's drafters.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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haha yes. like in 2009 when the Browns gm traded with the jets. they gave up the 5th overall pick for the 17th and basically a few of the jets chumps.
I think Mangini and McDaniels both thought they were BB and could manipulate the draft like he could, unfortunately both teams are still paying the price and both of them have been fired for their incompetence as drafters.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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link or GTFO :)
Every year, I do a quick check on trades to see how much they vary from the chart, and for the most part they seem to follow it quite closely.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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I doubt you can say you know, however BB has the prestige to do what he wants on draft day and nobody will question his judgment. However, among those in charge of their teams drafts, few have BB's reputation and can get away from the norm.
I think I checked a few years ago and found that for the most part BB followed the draft chart but he certainly isn't forced to like most team's drafters.
I shouldn't say "know", you are right. But it's been suspected for years, as he has gained the greatest amount of quality in both players and picks over the years. There is an awful lot of arbitrage out there.

Plenty of speculation on the netz, but no conclusive info obviously.
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Old 04-06-2011, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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I think Mangini and McDaniels both thought they were BB and could manipulate the draft like he could, unfortunately both teams are still paying the price and both of them have been fired for their incompetence as drafters.
Mangini actually drafted some pretty impressive players during his tenure in New York and did a good job building that team.


2006

Nick Mangold
D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Eric Smith
Leon Washington
Brad Smith

That's a really good draft. An A+ kind of draft if you ask me.

2007

Darrelle Revis
David Harris
Acquired Thomas Jones by moving back into round 2. (From #37 to #63)
Chansi Stuckey

Again, another really strong draft. 3 major, franchise caliber players were added right there.

2008
Vernon Gholston (Only major mistake)
Dustin Keller
Dwight Lowery
Kris Jenkins for 3rd and 5th round draft picks.
Gave up Jonathan Vilma for a measly 4th Rd pick

This is really the only bad draft. Gholston is a major bust, Keller is a solid starting TE, Lowery solid depth at CB and Kris Jenkins was incredible value, but as expected, injuries never went away. Vilma trade was simply terrible value. Should have gotten a second round pick for a stud MLB, which ended up being a swap... Vilma for Lowery... not good.


That's nothing to be ashamed of right there. I liked all the Jets drafts, including 2008 (I loved Gholston), right after they happened. He added a slew of All-Pro and Pro Bowl players at critical positions.


What's happened in Cleveland? I don't much care for.
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Old 04-14-2011, 08:36 PM    (permalink
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I rather listen to what a respected professional scout who gets paid like Nolan Nawrocki has to say about a player than what wannabe scouts on a message board say.

Cam Newton has lots of red flags on him. He is a talented player, but is very raw. The fact he played on a national championship game means nothing. QBs on national champtionship teams rarely amount to anything in the NFL. Most starting NFL QBs did not come from top 3 programs.
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Old 04-15-2011, 12:13 AM    (permalink
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I rather listen to what a respected professional scout who gets paid like Nolan Nawrocki has to say about a player than what wannabe scouts on a message board say.

Cam Newton has lots of red flags on him. He is a talented player, but is very raw. The fact he played on a national championship game means nothing. QBs on national champtionship teams rarely amount to anything in the NFL. Most starting NFL QBs did not come from top 3 programs.
You sure about that??

Peyton's Tennessee's teams were second only to Spurrier's Gators his last two years and won the NC the year after he left.

ELi Manning played on a 10-2 team at Ole Miss and was a Heisman finalist.
Vick played for a NC at Va Tech.

Roethlisberger led that football powerhouse Miami(Ohio) to a top 10 final ranking.

Aaron Rodgers led Cal to a top 5 ranking.

Tom Brady led Michigan to an Orange Bowl win over Alabama.

Many, if not most NFL QBs led their college teams to major bowl games or to one of their school's best finishes in the program's history.

IMO it's rare to find a good NFL QB who didn't win in a big way in college.

Sorry, but Cam playing balls out last year for Auburn when he started the season on NO ONE'S preseason radar is kind of a 'big deal'.

Leading your team to a NC in one season, coming out of the SEC undefeated on a squad with mediocre talent at best, is really unprecedented.

Nawrocki is an outlier IMO. Some valid points pro and con about Cam, but he still manages to miss the big picture about why teams are willing to roll the dice on Newton.
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Old 04-15-2011, 12:37 AM    (permalink
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I rather listen to what a respected professional scout who gets paid like Nolan Nawrocki has to say about a player than what wannabe scouts on a message board say.

Cam Newton has lots of red flags on him. He is a talented player, but is very raw. The fact he played on a national championship game means nothing. QBs on national champtionship teams rarely amount to anything in the NFL. Most starting NFL QBs did not come from top 3 programs.
Why? Nawrocki is not a scout. There are message board draftniks who I put more stock in than Nawrocki. Message boards are where a lot of draft scouts come from anyway. I have a couple friends that started on message boards, and I could have easily done it myself if I'd been more dedicated to it. Sometimes he writes some good things, but he also writes some over the top things to sell magazines. Mission accomplished for this year.
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Old 04-15-2011, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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You sure about that??

Peyton's Tennessee's teams were second only to Spurrier's Gators his last two years and won the NC the year after he left.

ELi Manning played on a 10-2 team at Ole Miss and was a Heisman finalist.
Vick played for a NC at Va Tech.

Roethlisberger led that football powerhouse Miami(Ohio) to a top 10 final ranking.

Aaron Rodgers led Cal to a top 5 ranking.

Tom Brady led Michigan to an Orange Bowl win over Alabama.

Many, if not most NFL QBs led their college teams to major bowl games or to one of their school's best finishes in the program's history.

IMO it's rare to find a good NFL QB who didn't win in a big way in college.

Sorry, but Cam playing balls out last year for Auburn when he started the season on NO ONE'S preseason radar is kind of a 'big deal'.

Leading your team to a NC in one season, coming out of the SEC undefeated on a squad with mediocre talent at best, is really unprecedented.

Nawrocki is an outlier IMO. Some valid points pro and con about Cam, but he still manages to miss the big picture about why teams are willing to roll the dice on Newton.
Manning always choked against the Gators. Who was the guy that finally won it all for them? Tee Martin? Newton wasn't impressive in the National Championship. Not any big time plays, the further the game went on, the less he did.

I wouldn't say he had mediocre talent. He had a 1,000 yard back on the team and his top receiver had close to 1,000 yards with 18.5 ypc. He had THE best coordinator in college football.

Btw, who were the starters on the team that Matt Mauck won the National Championship with? Who was on the other side, Jason White? ....winning big in college doesn't = nfl success. I would compare it to Danny Weurfell with Spurrier's new scheme that took the SEC by storm. No one in the SEC was used to Malazahn's scheme, and he finally had the right personell to run it the way he wanted to run it. Btw, the SEC wasn't THAT great last year compared to the years before. Florida dropped off. How LSU kept winning games was a mystery etc.

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Old 04-15-2011, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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Schemes, to me, are the key to success in college football at a team level. Dominant athletic talent would be next. After these, you can start looking talent-specific skills among the players on the field.

The difficulty is getting a true read on what Newton can do in the pros is trying to determine how much of the success he had was based on the scheme and how much was the player himself. The higher the percentage of scheme as the reason for success, the less certainty you can have about Newton. It doesn't mean he can't succeed when the scheme is partially responsible for his success, it just means the risk factor increases because schemes won't be near the factor they are in college when he hits the NFL which will put the emphasis back on the player himself.
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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Manning always choked against the Gators. Who was the guy that finally won it all for them? Tee Martin? Newton wasn't impressive in the National Championship. Not any big time plays, the further the game went on, the less he did.

I wouldn't say he had mediocre talent. He had a 1,000 yard back on the team and his top receiver had close to 1,000 yards with 18.5 ypc. He had THE best coordinator in college football.

Btw, who were the starters on the team that Matt Mauck won the National Championship with? Who was on the other side, Jason White? ....winning big in college doesn't = nfl success. I would compare it to Danny Weurfell with Spurrier's new scheme that took the SEC by storm. No one in the SEC was used to Malazahn's scheme, and he finally had the right personell to run it the way he wanted to run it. Btw, the SEC wasn't THAT great last year compared to the years before. Florida dropped off. How LSU kept winning games was a mystery etc.
You're on the verge of contradicting yourself.

You commented that most starting NFL QBs didn't come from top 3 programs. My point was that most NFL starters led their respective teams to dominant season(s) while in college.

Most NFL starters were big time winners in college.

Peyton couldn't beat the Gators who were the BEST team (arguably) in college football. Still the Vols were too much for most teams in the top 25 with Peyton at the helm.

How can you say Auburn caught the SEC off guard with their offense?? They've been playing against Urban Meyer for 5 years so most SEC DCs are familar with the concepts and sets used by Malzahn.


Also Newton had a 'B' game in the NC and I think most football fans by now know he was hurt early in that contest.

Jason White/Mauck/Weurffel aren't starting NFL QBs, so in their case they were a byproduct of systems and/or playing on loaded college teams.

I don't know how anyone can argue with a straight face that Cam was a 'system' QB in exactly ONE season as a starter. Yes Malzahn's offense took full advantage of Newton's skillset, but I doubt Malzahn's offensive scheme is predicated on having a QB throw for 30 TDs AND rush for 1400 yards/ 20 TDs.

Cam was the 'x' factor on Auburn's offense last year, not Malzahn's playbook.
Auburn without Newton would have been Georgia last season, a 6 to 8 win team at best.
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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Manning always choked against the Gators. Who was the guy that finally won it all for them? Tee Martin?
Damn, I thought I was a pretty big UT fan but I guess not because I never knew Peyton played defense as a Vol too.
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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Schemes, to me, are the key to success in college football at a team level. Dominant athletic talent would be next. After these, you can start looking talent-specific skills among the players on the field.

The difficulty is getting a true read on what Newton can do in the pros is trying to determine how much of the success he had was based on the scheme and how much was the player himself. The higher the percentage of scheme as the reason for success, the less certainty you can have about Newton. It doesn't mean he can't succeed when the scheme is partially responsible for his success, it just means the risk factor increases because schemes won't be near the factor they are in college when he hits the NFL which will put the emphasis back on the player himself.
Thinking it over I would reverse the 1st two. Dominate athletic talent has always won at the college level no matter how bad a HC you are. The top programs simply win a vast majority of their games on their sheer advantage in overall talent.
Schemes would follow that, often stronger HC's can overcome a lack of talent and win using different schemes.
I can name a long list of college teams who you could throw practically any HC into and they will produce winning records simply because of superior talent.

I think when pro teams start looking at any prospect at any position, they have to analysis how well they think he can adjust to a pro scheme at the next level. Pro teams function on a totally different plain than college teams and in particular, college players are going to face a whole new set of criteria for success at the next level no matter what position they play.

That is why the post season is so important in the draft process. Prospects started out over 3 months ago working with pro coaches learning the new nuances of their positions starting with the all-star games, the combine and their pro days. They then attend numerous individual private workouts to demonstrate how well and how far they have come in their learning.

QB's are no different, I don't believe pro scouts, HC's or GM's give much credence to what scheme you played in at college if they believe you have the physical ability and the intangibles to succeed. By now at the individual private workouts, they can see just how far a prospect has come in learning a pro type system and how well they have adjusted to a pro scheme. It is pretty hard at this stage for a team interested in a QB not to have a solid idea about what he will be like in a pro system.
That doesn't mean they can judge his mental toughness or judge how hard he will work as a pro after he gets a bundle of money. Those judgments come much later after the draft.

I'd say that anybody who is still criticizing either Gabbert or Newton for their ability to be a pro QB because of their college scheme, is simply stuck back in December unless they are attacking them for their mental toughness or their work ethic. The schemes they played in at college have lost all meaning by now as teams work them out vigorously in their own pro systems.
If they flop it will be because they again lack the mental toughness to survive play after play in the NFL or they refuse to work hard at their profession.
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:43 PM    (permalink
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Mangini actually drafted some pretty impressive players during his tenure in New York and did a good job building that team.


2006

Nick Mangold
D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Eric Smith
Leon Washington
Brad Smith

That's a really good draft. An A+ kind of draft if you ask me.

2007

Darrelle Revis
David Harris
Acquired Thomas Jones by moving back into round 2. (From #37 to #63)
Chansi Stuckey

Again, another really strong draft. 3 major, franchise caliber players were added right there.

2008
Vernon Gholston (Only major mistake)
Dustin Keller
Dwight Lowery
Kris Jenkins for 3rd and 5th round draft picks.
Gave up Jonathan Vilma for a measly 4th Rd pick

This is really the only bad draft. Gholston is a major bust, Keller is a solid starting TE, Lowery solid depth at CB and Kris Jenkins was incredible value, but as expected, injuries never went away. Vilma trade was simply terrible value. Should have gotten a second round pick for a stud MLB, which ended up being a swap... Vilma for Lowery... not good.


That's nothing to be ashamed of right there. I liked all the Jets drafts, including 2008 (I loved Gholston), right after they happened. He added a slew of All-Pro and Pro Bowl players at critical positions.


What's happened in Cleveland? I don't much care for.
Shoot me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Mangini ran the draft for the Jets, I think Tennabaum had that responsibility. I think those responsibilities were gained only when he came to Cleveland.
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