Interesting 3-4 OLB Sabermetric Analysis

[WCH]

This twitch rating is interesting, and something that I'm going to spend some time looking into this weekend.

Originally Posted by JustisM

But Brad Jones is an ILB...a back up one at that.

No, he played ILB this season due to injuries but he's been an OLB most of his career. Not a particularly good one, but a serviceable backup.

[descendency]

Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage

By Waldo's formulae, based on the combine numbers, only Devin Taylor falls into the low-risk 1 group, and the low-risk 2 group consists of Jamie Collins and Cornelius Washington.

The 3-4 OLB guys that everybody seems to like high in the draft are riskier (Ansah grades out as a mid-low risk, Jordan is a moderate risk, and Mingo is a high risk.)

That's not shocking at all.

I've long since thought this class was overrated at the DE position. Many of the "34 OLB"s are really DEs that are too small (and not in the good way). Cornellius Washington was a stud at Georgia at times, but was put in a position he wasn't meant for (5T) instead of one he was (DE/OLB).

I predict he has a much better career in the pros than college.

I haven't been a fan of Mingo or Damontrone Moore this year either.

[PossibleCabbage]

Originally Posted by Duffman57

THe one thing i dont like about this metric is that Mingo basically got punished .1 on the twitch score because he ran a really fast 10 yard split.

People who argue against the Twitch rating punishing you for having a fast 10 yard split are honestly kind of missing the point.

Your time at the combine in the short shuttle drill is based on two characteristics: How quickly you accelerate and how quickly you change direction. If you want to figure out how quickly someone changes direction, there's no test for that since you can always reduce your time in the shuttle by being fast.

So to try to figure out how well guys change direction, in a short area, the twitch score came about (and it's really just short shuttle minus 10-yard split). Which is to say we're trying to separate COD ability from just short speed when looking at the shuttle drill.

If two people are equally fast (same 10-yard split), and one changes direction better than the other (better short shuttle) the one who changes direction will have a better twitch score. That's what the metric is for.

Mingo's 10 yard split, compared to his short shuttle suggests that while he is really quite fast, he does not change direction particularly well. After all, guys with worse 10 yard splits (e.g. David Bass with a 1.67, Sio Moore with a 1.62) than Mingo's 1.55 ran better shuttles (Bass's 4.33, Moore's 4.31) than Mingo's 4.39. Ansah was slower over 10 yards (1.56 seconds) but faster in the shuttle (4.26). Mingo's not being punished for his good 10, he's being punished for his poor shuttle relative to how fast he is.

[Bob Sanders Dreadlock]

Still waiting on Dontay Moch to bust out

[PossibleCabbage]

Originally Posted by Bob Sanders Dreadlock

Still waiting on Dontay Moch to bust out

Didn't he break his foot and miss a season, then get suspended for PEDs and end up on IR for migraines?

There's no combine test that can predict that sort of thing.

Moch was also drafted to play LB for a 4-3 team, not a 3-4 team so there's no reason to believe Waldo's prediction will mean anything. If he ends up doing nothing for the Bengals, it may just be because he was drafted to play the wrong position. I mean, we've all seen certain draft picks fail because the team that took him didn't put him in position to excel, right?

[raphael]

These measurements might work as some sort of baseline in a draft, but there are so many other variables that determine the degree of success a guy will have. Biggest factor is the head, I'd say. You can have the best athlete in the world, but if he's dumb and a jerk, you may as well cut all his sabermetric numbers in half.

[pierce2walker]

Originally Posted by raphael

These measurements might work as some sort of baseline in a draft, but there are so many other variables that determine the degree of success a guy will have. Biggest factor is the head, I'd say. You can have the best athlete in the world, but if he's dumb and a jerk, you may as well cut all his sabermetric numbers in half.

There are tons of dumb and dickish athletes in the NFL. It is more important for certain positions (especially QB), but pass rushers don't really need to be brainiacs out there.

[diabsoule]

Victor Butler is a FA I have had going to the Saints ever since they hired Rob Ryan. It just seems like the type of move a new DC makes when trying to build his personnel.

[Trogdor]

Originally Posted by diabsoule

Victor Butler is a FA I have had going to the Saints ever since they hired Rob Ryan. It just seems like the type of move a new DC makes when trying to build his personnel.

Keep in mind even Rob didn't put him on the field all that often unless it was obvious passing downs. Butler is certainly a pressure player but is absolutely atrocious versus the run. It's a shame because he was one of the more efficient rushers on the team but couldn't play more than a handful of meaningful plays in a game due to his inability to play the run :(