Is Andy Dalton This Year's Colt McCoy?

MI_Buckeye · 04-22-2011, 09:40 PM

I keep hearing rumors of Dalton going first round and lasting no later than the early second. I just remember hearing the exact same thing about Colt last year. Possible first rounder with an absolute floor of No. 38 to Cleveland. He ended up going about 50 spots lower and had Atlanta not picked Corey Peters two spots in front of the Browns, he likely would have still been available going into day three.

The similarities between Dalton and McCoy are endless. Mobile spread college QBs who led great teams to lots of wins against overmatched opponents. Lack great arm strength. Affable guys who are well-liked by almost everybody. Both guys that I and many others thought were late-round talents who were at best career backups.

The good news for Dalton is McCoy had a nice rookie season and is the Browns starting QB for the time being.

Just a warning to all draftnicks, Dalton could fall MUCH further than people realize.

49erNation85 · 04-22-2011, 09:44 PM

I think it all depends on where Dalton lands.I'm a fan of his playing style and smarts.He is more fit for a WCO though.I wouldn't mind seeing how he would do in SF.He doesn't have the big powerful arm but big enough for the west.Will be interesting to see where he goes.First round IMO is way too early.

FUNBUNCHER · 04-22-2011, 09:44 PM

I hope Dalton has more Drew Brees in him than Colt McCoy.

Both these guys remind me of Jeff Garcia/Brees a little, but I suppose that's the automatic comparison for every 6'1 - 6'2 QB with limited arm strength, good decision making and decent mobility.

Also, didn't Brees increase his throwing velocity throughout his pro career??

FrankGore · 04-22-2011, 09:58 PM

McCoy was the victim of teams not really needing QBs last year plus a few teams putting off a need. A lot of teams wanted to give one more shot to guys they had drafted a few years ago. He legitimately probably should've gone in the 2nd round but the Browns had the luxury of watching him fall all the way to the middle of the 3rd round.

This year, I think most people would buy Dalton being at least a 2nd round value, but the amount of teams starving for QBs is quite possibly going to push him into the end of the 1st. I can't remember a draft where so many teams were dying to find a guy they can tab as the QBOTF and Dalton is the kind of guy that's going to get coaches fired up in support of taking him.

Not too egregious to me, and I'd be absolutely shocked if he fell out of the 2nd. At this point I think he'll go in the late 1st and if he lands in the right system, he's going to be good. I don't think his arm is poor enough for people to knock him as much as they are.

RealityCheck · 04-22-2011, 09:58 PM

In my opinion, Dalton's situation is the other way around.

We think Dalton's ceiling would be Miami at #15, but in reality he could go as high as #8 overall.

ellsy82 · 04-22-2011, 10:18 PM

Hmmmm. Mmmm-No. 'kay?

SchizophrenicBatman · 04-22-2011, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealityCheck

In my opinion, Dalton's situation is the other way around.

We think Dalton's ceiling would be Miami at #15, but in reality he could go as high as #8 overall.

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

SchizophrenicBatman · 04-22-2011, 11:17 PM

If Ball State went to a BCS game would Nate Davis have been a first round pick?

Smash28Dash34 · 04-22-2011, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

This, agree 100%.

Caulibflower · 04-23-2011, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

Third this.

Caulibflower · 04-23-2011, 12:13 AM

Although I do like him more than I liked Jimmy Clausen last year.

CashmoneyDrew · 04-23-2011, 12:20 AM

Dalton does nothing great, but he does a lot of things good enough and he's a gamer. I think he'll be one of the top 2 QBs from this draft. At worst he ends up a solid #2 his whole career IMO. I would love for the Titans to get him in the 2nd.

Giants34 · 04-23-2011, 12:30 AM

Thanks for the warning but I'm gonna say he lasts no longer than the early 2nd round.

FrankGore · 04-23-2011, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

Only because you asked...

If it came down to those factors alone, drafting QBs would be a science. You have to project how they're going to grow into their role as a starting QB. Can they master a playbook, become a great decision maker, improve their footwork and mechanics to get the ball on time in the right spot, carry out a gameplan to a T?

I like Andy Dalton because I foresee him picking up all those things very quickly. Not only is he "smart", he has a rare aggression to his football IQ that reminds me of Drew Brees...wants as many points as possible on the board, wants every throw in the right spot, and legitimately wants to kick ass. He's not your typical "caretaker" that just wants to dump the ball off and avoid picks. He goes out and gets it, but smartly.

He does have to go to the right team with the right kind of coach. If he goes to some team that has a defensive mind in charge that can care less about offense and has a mediocre OC, you're probably not getting anything special with Dalton. He needs a coach that has the same mentality. Similarly if you need a guy that can stand back there and constantly deliver long balls, you're probably not going to do well with him. But if you're a team that runs a quick-hitting, timing-based passing system (ie. WCO, ie. Seattle, SF), that's gotta be someone you like IMO.

Wrathman · 04-23-2011, 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CashmoneyDrew

Dalton does nothing great, but he does a lot of things good enough and he's a gamer. I think he'll be one of the top 2 QBs from this draft. At worst he ends up a solid #2 his whole career IMO. I would love for the Titans to get him in the 2nd.

This quarterback class has so many questions that it could turn out to be true that the second best QB of this class (Dalton or someone else) is a solid No. 2 in the NFL and nothing more. The odds say it won't happen, but would it truly be a surprise if it did? No.

Giants34 · 04-23-2011, 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

Average accuracy? Have you bothered to check the guys completion percentage? It was 66%. And the guy has what the NFL looks for in a QB, which are intangibles. The whole "winning" thing, the attitude, the work ethic the intelligence. He's got good size, he's got a good enough arm to make the necessary throws at the next level, he led a MWC team to an undefeated season and a victory over the Big 10 champion in the Rose Bowl on the big stage, and he's accurate enough.

The real question is, what's not to like about him? So naturally, even GM's have decided to explore the hair color. Again...what is not to like about the guy?

Wrathman · 04-23-2011, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giants34

The real question is, what's not to like about him? So naturally, even GM's have decided to explore the hair color. Again...what is not to like about the guy?

[Brian Billick] Guys who look like Andrew Dalton don't win Super Bowls[/Brian Billick]

lol.

Giants34 · 04-23-2011, 01:11 AM

I like how some people cry racism over everyone not being blinded by Cam Newton's smile, but people feel inclined to openly judge a guy by his haircolor and think its ok.

SchizophrenicBatman · 04-23-2011, 01:36 AM

I'm not going to get in a debate about college completion percentages. It's gotten ridiculous at this point. I could go out there and throw 50 swing passes and have a 75% completion percentage. Doesn't make me an NFL prospect

Go watch some TCU games. He isn't challenged to make difficult throws very often. He didn't carry his team like Brees did at Purdue. He stepped up a good amount his senior year, I'll give him credit for that. Before this year he looked like a thoroughly mediocre prospect who was a good caretaker for a team with a great defense and running game to me. He wasn't necessarily taken too far out of that role this year, he just executed it a lot better. And even after that, he still looks like a career back up. His accuracy is average projecting it to the NFL. Depending on the offense he plays in he could be over 60% in the NFL but that doesn't really mean anything. McNabb has been over 60% a lot of years playing for Andy Reid and he has below average accuracy

I'm not saying the guy is a scrub. I will grant him - his arm is good enough, he doesn't have any glaring flaws (though he has a number of minor issues that need work) and he has reports of being a good leader/intangible guy. That's great for him and makes him a draftable prospect. He'll be a good back up, maybe a poor starter. You don't take that in round 1.

FWIW I like Dalton a lot more than Ponder

Giants34 · 04-23-2011, 01:44 AM

Ok, I'm not going any further with this, cuz Dalton did carry that team and anyone that did watch TCU knows that. He did not just complete a bunch of swing passes..he threw the ball down the field. We're not getting into college completion percentages here...unless his name is Jake Locker, then we'll base our entire argument against him on it.

DOLPHINATIC · 04-23-2011, 01:51 AM

I love Dalton this year but I'm not I would want him in the first round. Peter King had the Dolphins taking him 15th overall, that would be a reach IMO.

Love/Hate List

Giants34 · 04-23-2011, 02:00 AM

I'm of the opinion that if you would take a QB in the 1st round, or even early 2nd round, it shouldn't matter where you take him. Granted, its nice if you can move down and still grab your guy but teams do get burned playing those games. I distinctly remember back in 1997 Dallas desperately needing a TE to replace Novacek and coveting a kid named Tony Gonzalez..but they traded around and played games to try and maximize their value until KC took him. They settled for David Lafleur instead. He lasted 2 years I think. If you want a guy, just take him. Especially a QB. You cannot knock a team for taking a guy at 15 that some teams would gladly take late 1st or earlier. Especially given the low success rate of these mid-late 1st rd guys and how many of them bust. Don't pass on a guy you truly believe can be your QB for a DT that looked good at the Combine.

metafour · 04-23-2011, 03:26 AM

He is a completely overhyped version of Greg McElroy. I'd rather take McElroy in the ~4th/5th round than Dalton late first or wherever he seems to have "risen" up to.

ViperVisor · 04-23-2011, 03:28 AM

I know little but makes sense to me. I have just watched what I could on Youtube.

A Winner sounds nice but hasn't shown to be much worth in the NFL.

He will be 24yo this season like McCoy, older than Josh Freeman. Lots of XP and you wonder how much large scale development you can project.

He looked great with the extra spacing in Coll + the but that tightens up in the NFL. All those hitches I saw with guys waiting for the ball isn't gonna happen.

He is good at putting the ball where he wants and is comfortable moving around so that is why Scott says "Best fit might come in a West Coast offense"
Doing that in the NFL where the QB is in a pressure cooker is the toughest thing in sports. Half of the 1st half of the draft have a need at QB some Badly.

metafour · 04-23-2011, 03:40 AM

By the way; I've mentioned it before, but these "2nd tier" QB prospects in recent history have been proven to be almost complete wasted picks 9 times out of 10. The guys that are turning franchises around and leading playoff pushes are the elite QB prospects; not the Andy Daltons and company.

If you're going for one of these 2nd tier guys the choice has to be Kaepernick because at least you can argue that he's got top-end tools to work with.