Draft Countdown Forums

Go Back   Draft Countdown Forums > Draft Countdown Forums > 2015 NFL Draft Forum

2015 NFL Draft Forum Discuss the 2015 NFL Draft

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-21-2011, 12:55 AM    (permalink
TitanHope
Website Contributor
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Cloud 9
Posts: 13,240
Reputation: 6357872
TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Draft picks are overrated when it comes to known players. You're trading an unknown for a known. In this case, you're not trading for a known quantity. You're making a costly trade in order to gamble on an unknown player. Although, I do find the humor in the "You guys are making too big of a deal out of draft picks. They're overrated!" when the reward for trading these picks is, wait for it, another overrated draft pick.

Why do the Browns suck? Probably because they haven't had a competant QB for the past decade, save for a fluke year by Derek Anderson. The FO has also been overhauled and they've made yet another coaching change this year. I'd say no QB and general FO incompetance would be the reason. Afterall, they've had premuim picks year after year because of their lack of success, so that "quality" hasn't helped either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.
Your argument was that we shouldn't make an issue about 4th RD picks, since they aren't impact players. I listed 6 starters from the Titans, one of which was a rookie, and some notable 4th RD and later players from the Falcons. This directly contradicts your statement.

You're slotted by default a single 4th RD pick every year. How is it not significant for a team to have 6 starters picked from that round?

And the Titans sucked as a team. The defense was ranked 15th in the NFL and the offense was 17th. They started 5-2, lost VY, and finished 1-9.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey
Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.
Exactly. If you need immediate impact, you get it through FA. But it happened that they were 4th RD picks or later, so I thought they were relevant seeing as how you were diminishing the value of players in the 4th RD. You're absolutely right on this, and I've demonstrably agreed with you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
And look how many 4th-UDFA are out of the league... you just named all the good ones...
Halsey said, and I quote, "For everyone who thinks all those picks are so valuable, tell me the last time the Falcons or Browns got an impact player in the 4th round." I did so, and even included players from even less valuable picks.

I didn't hand pick all the good ones. Halsey made a silly question and I answered it. The argument had nothing to do with percentages, but if in your language "when was the last time" actually means "how often," then you're definitely right and not totally missing the concept. Wanna accuse someone of hand picking data? Ask Halsey why he didn't touch the 1st RD yet accused 2nd RD'ers and beyond of being risks.

And I'm not even going to get into the sheer stupidity of using a success/failure ratio when you're looking at a situation where there's a set number of roster spots available, incumbent players to compete against, other rookie players to compete against, having much higher investments in players that make them untouchable, as well as factors such as injuries, and even trying to create an objective empirical argument from a league-wide scale that has any hope for exactness when discussing a singular team. As if Al Davis's incompetance 3 years ago has any ******* bearing whatsoever on Thomas Dimitroff's in 2011, let alone the hypocrisy of assuming he knows what the hell he's doing in the 1st RD/trade but is thrown in with all the other dumbass GM's over the past 5 years when the 4th RD comes up. Not to mention, not providing any hope of context considering you don't bring up any of the odds of the 3 RD's before and the 3 RD's afterward this stated round that is in the center of the entire process. And then you ask me (in an unquoted post) to NAME the successful and unsuccessful players, when in the quote following this, you give us NO NAMES (correction: 4 names and randomly Seneca Wallace) and just numbers, forcing us to assume you're not biased in your reasoning for your subjective definition of success, all when you were the one to bring up percentages to begin with because your reading comprehension failed you. Do you think I'm ********, or do you just like making Njx and I wake up the other occupants in our homes with our booming laughter?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
Fourth round success rate from 2003-2006

2003: TEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those ten players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2004: SEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those seven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2005: ELEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. About FIVE of those eleven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick (tough: Kerry Rhodes, Orton, MB3, Sproles).

2006: THIRTEEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those thirteen players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

Average of 35 picks in the fourth round each year.

35 x 4 = 140

41 out of 140 players (29.3 %) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them.

About 17 of 140 players (12%) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

*My stats may be a little off as I did this fairly quickly. Go ahead and add % points if you wish, my point still stands because you'll never get near 50%. The risk/reward dynamic in the fourth round, as I've shown with the stats, makes these picks less valuable than we think (and WANT). Possible a fourth-rounder works out? Yes. Probable. No.

It is logical to assume that trading away a fourth-round pick is trading away a 12% chance of getting a good player and about a 30% chance of getting a contributor.
First off, kudos for doing the legwork. Probably took you some time.

Redundant after reading post 2613584:


The draft is an inherent risk at every level. Just because there's a risk to fail doesn't mean there's disregardable value, which is Halsey's assertion that I'm arguing against. It's the 4th player that a team can choose, according to the default slotting. The NFL gives you 7 picks a year by default. Why are the last 4 selections irrelevant?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
A chance at Julio Jones-caliber player should not be missed because of well less than a 50/50 shot at finding Seneca Wallace in the fourth round (yes I counted him as a positive contributor).
Not my argument, and it was much more than a chance at Seneca Wallace that was given up in return for Jones. I'm not sure who, but it's not me who's saying, "I'd be all for it if they hadn't thrown those two 4th RD'ers in!" I'm the one saying, "No, those 4th RD'ers should be factored into the analysis of the trade, and not disregarded because they're the smallest piece of this whole."

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.
There's actually value in quantity. Listen to coaches in postdraft pressers. I've heard, "...and we got an additional player," multiple times used to support a trade. It's definitely a factor.



The issue isn't that 4th RD picks are just as important as 1st RD'ers, or even vital. It's that there is absolutely a significant difference in value between [1st RD, 2nd RD, 4th RD, future 1st RD, future 4th RD] and [1st RD, 2nd RD, and future 1st RD]. These aren't flyers you take in the 7th RD. It's the smack-dab middle of the draft. I don't understand how they can be disregarded in the assessment of this trade just because you're not guaranteed a starter from day one. It's pure ignorance, to me.

This argument is entirely circular to begin with. Say draft picks are overrated to defend trading for a draft pick. Rationalize drafting a player makes sense because he's a specialized need in occasional situations and not needed every down, and then talk about other picks not being worth their pick because they didn't contribute enough or weren't impactful. Saying later round picks aren't impact players then defending not taking a DE early because hey, we got ******* Cliff Matthews in the 7th RD. It's been entertaining to watch people willingly bang their heads against a wall repeatedly. I just had to join in for some reason.

I don't really have much of an issue with the trade to begin with, which is funny.
__________________
Still Team The Ke$ha!!!

[@TDWinstead]
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelJordanEberle (sabf) View Post
Damn Ke$ha is sexy.

Last edited by TitanHope : 06-21-2011 at 01:00 AM.
TitanHope is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 01:12 AM    (permalink
Halsey
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Cookeville,TN
Posts: 5,118
Reputation: 667043
Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

meh, this argument is going a whole lot of nowhere. Nobody is going to know anything for sure for a long time and nobody is going to change their current opinion. I just can't wait to see Jones pwn ur noobish opinions. :D
__________________

^What I just did to your argument
Halsey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 01:21 AM    (permalink
LonghornsLegend
Legend
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 20,913
Reputation: 2009538
LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I don't even know why the 4th round pick(s) is the talk of this thread anyway. More importantly it was the future 1st rder they miss out on, as well as the 2nd rder this year. That's 3 pro bowl players your team could very easily draft with decent scouting, as well as them being early picks.


That's where the real debate should be. I don't think there's any doubt to anyone Dimitroff overpaid, but it's silly to assume 4th round picks are worthless. There are always good players in that round every year.
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
LonghornsLegend is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 01:30 AM    (permalink
Caddy
Team Leader
Legend
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Aussie-Land
Posts: 20,930
Reputation: 2287858
Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Caddy is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Aqib Talib is going to shoot Jones so yeah, the Falcons got ripped off.
__________________

Caddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 01:43 AM    (permalink
AntoinCD
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Boxscorescouting.com
Posts: 5,882
Reputation: 1705893
AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caddy View Post
Aqib Talib is going to shoot Jones so yeah, the Falcons got ripped off.
But in fairness if the Falcons had've stayed put then Talib would have shot who they took with the 27th pick, their second round pick, their fourth round pick and next years picks too. In fact Aqib Talib's just gonna shoot everyone, and really...who can blame him?
__________________


BoneKrusher killing it with the sig
AntoinCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 10:15 AM    (permalink
JoeJoeBrown
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,075
Reputation: 2709523
JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.JoeJoeBrown is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
But in fairness if the Falcons had've stayed put then Talib would have shot who they took with the 27th pick, their second round pick, their fourth round pick and next years picks too. In fact Aqib Talib's just gonna shoot everyone, and really...who can blame him?
Terrelle Pryor totally agrees.
JoeJoeBrown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 10:26 AM    (permalink
OGDraft
Rookie
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Windsor, Canada
Posts: 46
Reputation: 4946
OGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hair
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
I don't think there's any doubt to anyone Dimitroff overpaid
You would think so...
OGDraft is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 03:12 PM    (permalink
prock
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 9,171
Reputation: 2098837
prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post

I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.
This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??
__________________

Bonekrusher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JordanTaber View Post
Football...it's rocket surgery now, folks.
prock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 04:45 PM    (permalink
SativaDominant
Rookie
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 113
Reputation: 41942
SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by prock View Post
This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??
Bingo. They essentially bet the farm on a solid wide receiver prospect from a very poor draft class. Not to mention that receiver was arguably the deepest position in this class outside of defensive line (and, really, the defensive line talent in this class was slightly overstated).

With that said, I'd expect the Falcons' offensive philosophy to change dramatically over the course of the next few seasons. Michael Turner has carried an extremely heavy workload in his two Atlanta seasons and was a non-factor in both of their playoff appearances. Secondly, they play on turf in a dome. Their offensive philosophy has been great for developing a young QB on the fly, but it gives them no advantage in their home stadium. That was fairly obvious in the Packer playoff game - where a team from freezing Green Bay was better suited to playing on the Falcons' field. And thirdly, it's now or never for Matty Ice. He's entering his fourth year, and it's time for the offense to revolve around him. If it doesn't happen now, it's never going to.
SativaDominant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 05:16 PM    (permalink
onejayhawk
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 907
Reputation: 48792
onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.onejayhawk is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Very poor is an overstatement. Somewhat thin I would accept.

J
onejayhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 05:22 PM    (permalink
ArkyRamsFan
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 564
Reputation: 11378
ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ArkyRamsFan is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Any position can be filled at any point in the Draft. This is garbage logic. There's no rule against drafting any position in any round.
Hmmm...so you would take, say, a long-snapper with the 6th pick in the first round. You, sir, are the one with the "garbage logic."

If you've been paying attention you would know that certain positions are valued higher (much, much higher in some cases) than others. To paraphrase George Orwell "All positions are equal; some are more equal than others." For Atlanta to pay that kind of price for what is, essentially, a second wideout is obscene.

Also, I am interested to hear what you have to say that if the Falcons would have just stood pat they could have drafted Kyle Rudolph in the first and then Greg Little in the second and still have saved all of their picks for next year.

Doesn't that sound like a much more effective draft haul?
ArkyRamsFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 05:22 PM    (permalink
gpngc
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MetLife, Clink x4, MetLife
Posts: 13,563
Reputation: 1784408
gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by prock View Post
This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??
Shoot me in the face^ Well over half of fourth-round picks EASILY phase out of the league quickly. But we aren't using past statistics because it's better to go off a hope and a whim of the less-than-10% chance that the Falcons would have gotten solid players with BOTH 4th-rounders. But we'll dismiss the statistics because they provide a relevant counter-argument about the value of fourth-round picks.

They essentially bet the farm What farm? They bet a few picks - their farm is already thriving.

[i]And I'm not even going to get into the sheer stupidity of using a success/failure ratio when you're looking at a situation[/I

It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round? How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick? This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.

And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness. Second of all, a #2 receiver plays way more snaps than whatever DE they would have drafted at 27. Jones will be on the field in every single set besides GL and if for some reason before the 10-yard line the coaching staff subs in Justin Peelle for a 2TE FB 1WR look... I don't think they'll do that very often...
gpngc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 05:32 PM    (permalink
prock
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 9,171
Reputation: 2098837
prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.prock is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

OK, so their draft picks don't matter because you don't trust the Falcons to make good choices? If half of fourth round picks flame out, we will cut down the two good depth players into one. Happy?

And yes it is stupid. Player A drafted in the 4th round two years ago is completely independent from Player B drafted in this year's fourth round. Why would you look at past players taken at a certain position at a certain point to determine whether or not you want to take a player?

Obviously #2 receiver was a need. But was it worth all they gave up? They could have taken a DE at 27, taken someone like Greg Little in rd 2, and gotten another should be starter next year. Is that better than Julio? Yes it is. If you want to argue that one receiver is better than 5 players, have fun.
__________________

Bonekrusher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JordanTaber View Post
Football...it's rocket surgery now, folks.
prock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 05:40 PM    (permalink
LonghornsLegend
Legend
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 20,913
Reputation: 2009538
LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
Bingo. They essentially bet the farm on a solid wide receiver prospect from a very poor draft class. Not to mention that receiver was arguably the deepest position in this class outside of defensive line (and, really, the defensive line talent in this class was slightly overstated).

For one Julio isn't a "solid WR prospect", I don't know why we have to try and downgrade how good he is by calling him a #2 WR, and solid WR prospect because they paid alot. That doesn't make him any less of a prospect.


Also, you do realize that you calling this a "very poor draft class" just makes them giving up multiple picks for 1 of the potentially elite players seem like a better decision? I'm not saying that's what happened, but if it's a poor draft class as you say, the logical thing to do would be to package picks in said class, to move up for a sure thing.



Besides, a draft class being very poor doesn't make any 1 player worse, I don't even know why that had to be mentioned. It has no bearing on how good Julio, or anyone else will be.
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
LonghornsLegend is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 06:04 PM    (permalink
SativaDominant
Rookie
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 113
Reputation: 41942
SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
For one Julio isn't a "solid WR prospect", I don't know why we have to try and downgrade how good he is by calling him a #2 WR, and solid WR prospect because they paid alot. That doesn't make him any less of a prospect.


Also, you do realize that you calling this a "very poor draft class" just makes them giving up multiple picks for 1 of the potentially elite players seem like a better decision? I'm not saying that's what happened, but if it's a poor draft class as you say, the logical thing to do would be to package picks in said class, to move up for a sure thing.



Besides, a draft class being very poor doesn't make any 1 player worse, I don't even know why that had to be mentioned. It has no bearing on how good Julio, or anyone else will be.
Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.
SativaDominant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 06:41 PM    (permalink
SativaDominant
Rookie
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 113
Reputation: 41942
SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.
Page trap.
SativaDominant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 06:56 PM    (permalink
LonghornsLegend
Legend
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 20,913
Reputation: 2009538
LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.LonghornsLegend is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.


That's fine, I won't argue with you your opinion on JJ, you could be absolutely right, but he's still alot more then a 'solid prospect', in which the masses could confirm that. NFL GM's, exec's, whoever. Everyone had him rated as an elite prospect in this draft, or any draft for that matter. The draft as a whole shouldn't change that, nor should how deep a position was.


Calling this draft "deep" at WR means nothing if your including guys like Greg Salas or Randall Cobb. They can, and probably will go onto to be big time players, but how many players in this draft could potentially end up a #1 WR? How many do you have outside of AJ, JJ, and Little? I don't think they wanted a longterm #2 WR.
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
LonghornsLegend is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 07:09 PM    (permalink
OGDraft
Rookie
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Windsor, Canada
Posts: 46
Reputation: 4946
OGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairOGDraft is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hair
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.
Wrong. That was not our biggest weakness. That was, and still is, defensive end. We could also use more depth in the secondary and a RT since Clabo could potentially leave to get his pay day. #2 WR is a need but it was the biggest need because we are simply fine on the offensive side of the ball. It's our defense that has consistently been letting us down in big games.
OGDraft is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 10:39 PM    (permalink
ATLDirtyBirds
Legend
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 20,916
Reputation: 1423028
ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.ATLDirtyBirds is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.
Sounds like Terrell Owens. ;)
__________________
ATLDirtyBirds is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2011, 10:40 PM    (permalink
Halsey
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Cookeville,TN
Posts: 5,118
Reputation: 667043
Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Halsey is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.
__________________

^What I just did to your argument

Last edited by Halsey : 06-21-2011 at 10:42 PM.
Halsey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2011, 02:32 PM    (permalink
FTRWRTR
Rookie
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 308
Reputation: 10147
FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FTRWRTR is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.
You know what, you schooled me. I watch the falcons play every week and I see them score a ton of points and hear how they have the 5th highest scoring offense in the league so I never bothered to look up their offensive stats. It turns out they were indeed 16th in total offense and 12th in passing offense. Meanwhile they were also 16th in total defense and yet people assume they are this great offensive juggernaut with a crappy defense. LOL.
FTRWRTR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2011, 03:52 AM    (permalink
TitanHope
Website Contributor
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Cloud 9
Posts: 13,240
Reputation: 6357872
TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TitanHope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round?
Say you're buying raffle tickets. You buy 101 tickets, and each individual ticket has a 1/4 chance of winning. After 100 tickets go by, 10 of them are winners and 90 of them are losers. What are the odds that the 101st ticket is a winner: 1/4 or 1/10?

According to your "statistical analysis," you'd choose 1/10.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick?
I don't think there is a way to accurately determine a future pick's value. It is what it is. It's going to be your pick of the litter among the available players at a early point in the draft, and based on a massive variety of variables, could hold an massive or miniscule value. He could be as good as an All-Pro, or he could die the day after the draft ends. To try to label it as anything other than "the ## pick of the 2012 NFL Draft" is a fool's errand. Hence why as opposed to the raffle ticket's known odds, a draft pick's odds are unknown.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.
I have no idea how a GM comes up with his own subjective determination of value, especially for one that he has no idea where in the round it will be. But if you have proof that this is a common occurance, then please provide it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.
That wasn't what I heard before, during, or after the draft, and this came from both Falcons fans and neutral pundits. Upgrading over Michael Jenkins was really their biggest issue? I'm sorry. The Falcons are good, but they're not so good that Michael Jenkins was what cost them a championship. Not to mention, good GM's think of future needs as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
Second of all, a #2 receiver plays way more snaps than whatever DE they would have drafted at 27. Jones will be on the field in every single set besides GL and if for some reason before the 10-yard line the coaching staff subs in Justin Peelle for a 2TE FB 1WR look... I don't think they'll do that very often...
I don't care who they would have taken at #27 (technically, #26 due to the Ravens/Bears mishap), especially since not only would they have been able to take someone there, but they could have taken someone with their 2nd RD'er and 4th RD'er...and future 1st and 4th RD'ers as well. Michael Jenkins could have been upgraded over with either of their first two picks, with Jonathan Baldwin in the 1st or Greg Little with their 2nd (coincidentally, both these players were taking with picks originally owned by the Falcons). The rest would be gravy, whether they chose to add another pass-rusher, go BPA, or try to anticipate a future hole in the roster.

For me, the issue isn't the player. Jones is definitely a talent, and if he was their "guy," then I'm fine with them making the move. But coming from someone who looks at this without having "guys," I'm not sure I can say this was smart. You're trading 5-for-1, which means there are four guys who have the potential to improve your team that you're not gonna have the chance at. And in exchange for those 4 players, three of which are premium selections, you're upgrading your #2 WR...when that could have been accomplished without the trade - you just wouldn't have gotten the elite prospect at the position. So was upgrading an average #2 WR with an elitely talented rookie worth it? Not unless you don't have the faith in your QB and/or coaching staff that you need to surround them with elite players, which is what this move says to me.
__________________
Still Team The Ke$ha!!!

[@TDWinstead]
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelJordanEberle (sabf) View Post
Damn Ke$ha is sexy.
TitanHope is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2011, 10:54 AM    (permalink
the_dark_knight
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 677
Reputation: 1
the_dark_knight hopes to escalate quickly but not get out of hand.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
that's cute. 'i'm so oppressed because like, you're a mod, so let me start off with a bizarre, inane comment that has no relevance whatsoever to the conversation, so that when you DO reply, i can further compalin about how mean you are because you're a mod and like, your name is a different color than mine. boo fricking hoo.'

grow up.



so, you should always package your draft picks so that you don't have to cut players (which you'll do anyways) and so that a bad scouting department isn't exposed? that seems... logical, or something.



so, instead of spending crazy money on a WR who's actually proven that he can play in the nfl, you're going to spend crazy money on a WR who's proven nothing. brilliant. but hey, look at all of those stud wrs who've won the super bowl. oh... right.



why would i fear a rookie who's proven nothing in the nfl? i do appreciate the assumption that he's already a top tier nfl wideout, it's cute, but until he actually shows that he can beat an nfl cb, or run an nfl route, no one cares.



ah, more "he's already a top tier nfl receiver, and he's so good that he's actually made the defense better". is that why the lions won so many more games the year after they drafted calvin johnson? is that why the texans have gone to the playoffs so many times with andre johnson? is that why the cardinals won so many super bowls with fitz AND boldin? let me know when you catch onto the theme.



yes, i'm *jealous* that the broncos didn't trade their next 53 first round picks to take a wide receiver in the top ten. how'd you know? every single time i think something is stupid, it's clearly just jealousy.



i.e. - waaaaaaah, someone else did it to! why are you picking on us! other teams make dumb trades!



yup, not only am i 'jealous' i'm also 'hating'. i mean, you were clearly a julio jones away from winning the super bowl for the next decade straight.
Cry more mod, seriously. This is insane that you're a mod and cry like this. You clearly are jealous, and take this stuff to heart, and it's clear that you're going to end up being wrong about the amount of money spent on landing him too, considering the whole rookie wage scale thing. Once that's in place, then the Falcons are going to come out smelling like roses on this one. Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them.

Keep bein mad dude, it's all good. You're just a whiner.

*modtag*
the_dark_knight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2011, 11:31 AM    (permalink
SativaDominant
Rookie
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 113
Reputation: 41942
SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SativaDominant is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.

Last edited by SativaDominant : 06-23-2011 at 11:39 AM.
SativaDominant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2011, 12:11 PM    (permalink
TACKLE
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 10,964
Reputation: 4644781
TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.
C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Using some hindsight, Reg's game was very hard to project to the next level but most, myself included, assumed that he'd find a way to succeed on the strength of his athleticism and playmaking ability. With Julio, we can see players right now with comparable skill-sets with similar type games. We can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.
__________________

Last edited by TACKLE : 06-23-2011 at 12:16 PM.
TACKLE is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:56 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.