Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[tjsunstein]

Originally Posted by gpngc

^ So basically I'm an idiot for passing on Brady at No. 7?

EDIT: **** it. If DMac is gone I'm taking Stafford at 7. **** Brady. Stafford is the new Brady.

Why take the new Brady over the actual-know-what-you're-getting Brady who has 4 targets rather than 2?

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

What are everyone's thoughts on drafting a bunch of players with the same bye week? Here's what I've got so far (PPR):

QB: Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Jamal Charles
WR: Wes Welker, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker
TE: Tony Gonzalez

Every single player on my team aside from Roethlisberger and Welker has a week seven bye. I'm thinking I'll just forfeit the week in order to keep my team together.

Bye weeks will never affect how I draft unless its my backup QB or TE.

Originally Posted by Hines

Is it a dumb move to roll with Doug Martin, DWill, Helu, Spiller, and Mike Goodson as my RBs and let Romo, Fitz, Percy, Gronk, and DJax/Lance Moore beast mode it up until Mendenhall returns from injury? My schedule is not that hard the first four weeks to where I think I can go 3-1 and Mendenhall SHOULD be the starter once he gets back healthy after their Bye week.

If I were to dangle one of the WRs I have, it'd be Moore, though I doubt he'd land much.

Edit: If Redman is still bothering with his injury, I could always pick up Dwyer to start for me since he's on waivers.

Yes, you need starting RBs to win in fantasy. WRs are inconsisent, too reliant on QB play, game situations. I wouLdn't look at any of those RBs until Im drafting my 3rd. Martin is probably the best bet there, I have little faith in Helu and DWill, the other two are huge wildcards for two different reasons.

[Malaka]

Originally Posted by tjsunstein

Why take the new Brady over the actual-know-what-you're-getting Brady who has 4 targets rather than 2?

Not to mention Stafford is an injury waiting to happen.

I love Stafford, and I'd take him but choosing between him and Brady I'll play it safe with Tom Terrific.

[holt_bruce81]

Originally Posted by sbh15

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Ray Rice
4. Arian Foster
5. Tom Brady
6. Drew Brees
7. Calvin Johnson
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
10. Chris Johnson
11. Matt Forte
12. Marshawn Lynch
13. Jimmy Graham
14. Rob Gronkowski
15. Darren McFadden

1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. Lesean McCoy
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Chris Johnson
6. Tom Brady
7. Drew Brees
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Darren McFadden
10. Matt Forte
11. DeMarco Murray
12. Rob Grankowski
13. Julio Jones
14. Cam Newton
15. Jimmy Graham

[Matthew Jones]

The final team:

QB: Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger

RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Jamal Charles, Beanie Wells

WR: Wes Welker, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker, Lance Moore, Nate Washington

TE: Tony Gonzalez

K: Sebastian Janikowski

DST: Seattle Seahawks

[holt_bruce81]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

The final team:

QB: Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger

RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Jamal Charles, Beanie Wells

WR: Wes Welker, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker, Lance Moore, Nate Washington

TE: Tony Gonzalez

K: Sebastian Janikowski

DST: Seattle Seahawks

I love your wide receivers. Love Decker this year, I actually like him better than Demaryius Thomas in that offense. Not really a fan of your backup running backs, I hate Beanie and expect Ryan Williams to be the starter and with Peyton Hillis now in KC on a 1 year deal and playing for his old coach I'm not sure I like Charles, plus he's coming off an injury.

If u want to role with one tight end I'd honestly consider dropping Nate Washington and carrying a 3rd QB on your roster....Dalton, Luck, Bradford, Fitz just because I think both your quarterbacks right now are high risk.

[tjsunstein]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

The final team:

QB: Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger

RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Jamal Charles, Beanie Wells

WR: Wes Welker, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker, Lance Moore, Nate Washington

TE: Tony Gonzalez

K: Sebastian Janikowski

DST: Seattle Seahawks

Originally Posted by holt_bruce81

I love your wide receivers. Love Decker this year, I actually like him better than Demaryius Thomas in that offense. Not really a fan of your backup running backs, I hate Beanie and expect Ryan Williams to be the starter and with Peyton Hillis now in KC on a 1 year deal and playing for his old coach I'm not sure I like Charles, plus he's coming off an injury.

If u want to role with one tight end I'd honestly consider dropping Nate Washington and carrying a 3rd QB on your roster....Dalton, Luck, Bradford, Fitz just because I think both your quarterbacks right now are high risk.

QBs are two guys I dont trust to carry me in fantasy.
RBs are great. I love Mathews this year especially at the price hes going for. As long as you can live with knowing Charles is going to live in that 12-17 touch per week range.
WRs are stacked.
TE could have been higher upside.

[holt_bruce81]

Does anyone have any deep sleepers this year? I'm not talking about guys like Peyton Hillis or a Desean Jackson.....but guys that might be there really late, like a Kyle Rudolph or maybe a Alex Green or Mike Goodson.

[Hines]

Originally Posted by holt_bruce81

Does anyone have any deep sleepers this year? I'm not talking about guys like Peyton Hillis or a Desean Jackson.....but guys that might be there really late, like a Kyle Rudolph or maybe a Alex Green or Mike Goodson.

Lester Jean.

[holt_bruce81]

I thought I killed this thread. Knew I could count on you hines!

[fenikz]

Montario Hardesty if you don't think Richardson will return by the start of regular season

Ryan Williams is going way lower than he should about 8 rounds lower than Beanie Wells

[holt_bruce81]

Originally Posted by fenikz

Montario Hardesty if you don't think Richardson will return by the start of regular season

Ryan Williams is going way lower than he should about 8 rounds lower than Beanie Wells

I love Ryan Williams and Rashard Jennings this year. I think Williams snags the starting job sometime this season even if Beanie is healthy. But being an Arizona fan obviously you'd know more than me!

[Docta]

Originally Posted by holt_bruce81

I love Ryan Williams and Rashard Jennings this year. I think Williams snags the starting job sometime this season even if Beanie is healthy. But being an Arizona fan obviously you'd know more than me!

Torn patella tendons are killer. Same injury that pretty much ended Cadillac Williams' career.

[fenikz]

He seems perfectly healthy to me, Arizona is well known for it's physical therapy and training staffs and they have all said his recovery has exceeded anything they are used to

He is simply just a freak athlete and I will be pissed if Beanie takes even 1/10th of his carries this year

http://www.azcardinals.com/videos-ph...e-75fcfeb6cf65
here's a video of some of the stuff, filmed before preseason I believe

[Hines]

I think another sleeper is Vick Ballard. Donald Brown isn't that good and I think Ballard looked a billion times better than he did in Sunday night's game.

[holt_bruce81]

Some Rams players might be relavent this year in Fantasy not named Steven.

1. Sam Bradford - Has his favorite target back this season and has an upgraded receiving core and a better Offensive Line. If he's not at least a high end #2, I'm going to be pissed.

2. Danny Amendola - I think we can expect anywhere between 600-800 yards from Danny, maybe more but I doubt it. Hes looked good in preseason from what I've seen. Low end #3 high end #4.

3. steve Smith - Smith looks healthy this season, I'm not projecting him to be a 90+ catch guy but I think he'll be more effective than he was last season.

4. Brian Quick/Chris Givens - I'm going to say this, in preseason Chris Givens has looked absolutely incredible, dude has legit speed. People at Rams camp have just been raving about Givens pretty much ever since he got there. I haven't seen much of Quick, Bradford said earlier in the week that the light bulb "came on" for Brian so we'll see, in the previous games I think he's only ran one route, the quick slant.

5. Lance Kendricks - Could be a solid #2 for someone or a great waiver pickup if you need a filler for a week. He had a billion drops last year but I think that was just some concentration issues, hopefully that is a thing of the past because he did a great job of getting open. It'll be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

6. Greg Zuerlein - Ok this dude has a mamoth kicking leg. Draft him if you need a kicker, please. He kicked a 52-yarder vs the Chiefs last preseason game literally like it was a chip shot.

[FlyingElvis]

Originally Posted by DiG

need a quick answer. keeper league. Dez RD5 or Eli RD 15??

already have:
Ryan Mathews RD6
Hakeem Nicks RD4
Jimmy G RD 7

4 pts per passing TD, .5 pts per reception. top 7 QBs based on my rankings are all being kept (Rodgers, Brees, Newton, Brady, Stafford, Vick, Romo). Could probably redraft Eli in the 4th. Dez will probably go late 2nd to early 3rd.

Keep Eli. You should have a shot at a good WR in round 5. You won't have a shot at a top 6 QB in round 15.

Originally Posted by mdmgrand

I've been posting about thoughts on what I should do at my draft slots in my 10 team, QB dominated, PPR league, since I traded far too often. I've finally settled on my slots and I own these as my first six picks 15, 16, 20, 30, 34, and 40. My next pick after these is pick 74 (where I will take whichever QB falls to me since probably 8 teams will have picked a QB by then).

This sounds ridiculous, but I have pretty much decided to take Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski as my 15 and 16 (unless someone in my top 10 drops). My reasoning behind this is to obviously start one as a flex (which I was going to grab a receiver to do anyways) and potentially rob every other team out of a projected spread at around 5 to 6 points at the TE position. I checked both their stats last year (I realize they both went off the charts and I'm not expecting 100% stat reproduction) and they were remarkably more consistent than any receiver not named Calvin Johnson. Picks 20, 30, 34, and 40 will be used for BPA locked into 2 RB and 2 WR, in any order.

So what do you guys think about my Dual TE logic, would it work?

If they're the BPA, do it. It could work, but you have to realize the risk is that you've picked two guys who are unlikely to put up 100% of last year's numbers and that means they are unlikely to maintain that same point spread.

[FlyingElvis]

Originally Posted by gpngc

I have a question:
tl;dr

;)

McFadden. If he's gone, take Murray.

Why take a QB when you know one will be there in round 2? You really like McFadden and Murray aside from the injury concerns so you consider passing on them in round 1 which will likely put you in a position where your best options in round 2 are . . . Peterson and Richardson?

Originally Posted by gpngc

So after I figure that out - here's some help for you guys:

+ means guys I like more than where they are being drafted. The more +s the more I like him relative to his draft projection.

- means the same thing but negatively.

I haven't done all my fantasy research, but I think it's valuable to get a feel for players after knowing real life NFL stuff (I've already made my season wagers) rather than looking at everything based on stats. Here goes:

Matt Stafford +
Larry Fitzgerald -
Mike Wallace ----
Jamaal Charles --

A.J. Green -
I did agree with this - figured there'd absolutely be a drop off after a hot rookie campaign. Then I watched the first 2 Bengals preseason games where AJ was just blowing by CBs like they were standing still and Dalton was chucking it like it was sandlot ball.

Julio Jones +++++++++++++++
This one is odd, tbh. I agree he's looking like a breakout beast and could land in the top 5, but he's also being drafted accordingly. How is he such a huge value if he's being drafted as a top5 WR? (I feel similar on DMC - maybe your leagues are drafting them different than the ADPs?)
Darren McFadden +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Steven Jackson ++
Michael Turner -----

Frank Gore ---------
Again, maybe it's an ADP vs. reality thing, but I love Gore as a guy who has routinely slid to round 3 and later.

Jordy Nelson ++
Darren Sproles ---
Percy Harvin ++++++++

Brandon Lloyd --
Also seems like an ADP question. He's moving up but has been routinely available in rounds 4 and 5.

Miles Austin -------
Roy Helu -----------------------------
Vincent Jackson -
Jonathan Stewart +
Stevan Ridley --------------
Eric Decker +++++++++++++
DeSean Jackson +
Matt Ryan ++
Isaac Redman ----------------------------
Robert Meachem ----

Pierre Garcon --
Another one I agreed with prior to game action. He's been available in rds 5 and 6 and he is very clearly RGIII's go-to guy. There also seems to be clear game-planning to get him the ball.

Peyton Hillis +++++++
Donald Brown +++
Reggie Wayne ++
Titus Young ++
Malcom Floyd +
Ryan Williams ++
Kendall Hunter +

Here are the guys I can't get a read on, but I think I like:
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Torrey Smith
RB Doug Martin
RB Kevin Smith
RB C.J. Spiller

Here are the guys I don't know WTF to think:

RB Fred Jackson
Another guy I was down on pre-preseason. Spiller isn't looking like a breakout candidate and Fred looks fine. He should outproduce his ADP and be a top 10 RB.
WR Steve Smith
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
RB Reggie Bush
RB Beanie Wells

As for QBs, I think that if you don't get an elite one you should just do this:

Target Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, or Philip Rivers later than their ranking in the 7th-8th-9th range if people already have their QBs and a couple of owners are just waiting playing chicken.

Or

Just wait until the 10th and later and grab Luck/Palmer/Flacco/Bradford. If one or two of your guys aren't startable every week, you'll find someone on the wire (cough, Russell Wilson, cough) soon enough. Orton, Vick, Newton last year - there's always a top QB that emerges during the season. No other QB seems worth their draft position this year except the top, top guys. Wait on QBs, stack your team.

I agree w/the vast majority of what you're selling. Bolded notes in quote, b/c it was easier.

[FlyingElvis]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

What are everyone's thoughts on drafting a bunch of players with the same bye week? Here's what I've got so far (PPR):

QB: Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Jamal Charles, Beanie Wells
WR: Wes Welker, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker, Lance Moore
TE: Tony Gonzalez

Vick, McCoy, Mathews, Charles, Julio, Maclin, Decker, and Gonzalez all have a week seven bye. I'm thinking I'll just forfeit the week in order to keep my team together.

While I don't worry too much about bye weeks, I'd be very unhappy with an owner taking this approach, especially in a money league. It's questionable etiquette, at best. You're basically giving some other team a random 'lottery ticket' win b/c they were lucky enough to get you on that bye week forfeit.

Originally Posted by Hines

Is it a dumb move to roll with Doug Martin, DWill, Helu, Spiller, and Mike Goodson as my RBs and let Romo, Fitz, Percy, Gronk, and DJax/Lance Moore beast mode it up until Mendenhall returns from injury? My schedule is not that hard the first four weeks to where I think I can go 3-1 and Mendenhall SHOULD be the starter once he gets back healthy after their Bye week.

If I were to dangle one of the WRs I have, it'd be Moore, though I doubt he'd land much.


Edit: If Redman is still bothering with his injury, I could always pick up Dwyer to start for me since he's on waivers.

I'd be shocked it you even sniffed 3-1. A fist full of backup/RBBC/shannahanigans RBs while waiting for a busted RB to return? No, thanks.



As for sleepers . . .
I agree w/Fenikz that Williams is probably the RB to own in Arizona. Certainly he is based on ADP, as the two will both see carries and he will cost far less than Beanie.
Love Donald Brown, though he won't be reaching a double digit round anymore.
Jean is a good one, though it's still in the air whether he or Martin will win WR3 and it's still only WR3 on a talented team.
Greg Olsen is a big value again this year. Same for Kendricks (again) w/a new OC that features TE more.
Amendola isn't drafted in many leagues and will be a PPR stud.
Bess is the default WR1 for Miami and could be a solid producer vs. his ADP of 'undrafted.' lol
Lafell isn't a bad pick, late.
Deep leagues - grab Bolden in NE with your last pick. Ridley and Vereen are both looking unispiring to me, though the Oline isn't helping. Fuller as WR in Miami in really deep leagues, too. Sneaky . . . big target that Tannehill is familiar with already.

[SuperMcGee]

Freddy is definitely a tough guy to peg down, but he certainly looks capable of putting up those great games again. You just can't ignore him when he plays that well and the book has always been about how he gets better deeper into the game. The line needs to stay healthy, though.

[FlyingElvis]

Originally Posted by SuperMcgee

Freddy is definitely a tough guy to peg down, but he certainly looks capable of putting up those great games again. You just can't ignore him when he plays that well and the book has always been about how he gets better deeper into the game. The line needs to stay healthy, though.

He is tough to guage, but his ADP has him in round 3. I'm buying without thinking twice, at that price.

[tjsunstein]

Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener are both sleepers at this point, hell the whole Colts offense is.

[FlyingElvis]

Originally Posted by tjsunstein

Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener are both sleepers at this point, hell the whole Colts offense is.

Wayne is definitely looking like a steal. He's likely to be right back in his wheelhouse of 1200 yards and 8 TDs but he's falling to round 6 or later.

[tjsunstein]

I don't know the forum rules on this but what sites does everyone frequent for fantasy news, rankings, tips, etc,. Lately, I've been a podcast guy with the ESPN Fantasy Focus and the draft special, but I also listen to CBS' as well as the lower profile/budget ones like fantasyfootballguys and such. I like to get a ton of different perspective.

[FlyingElvis]

Can somebody explain this whole Forte / Bush nonsense? I just saw that CBSSports has projections for them at 180 / 130 FF points for the season. What am I missing? Bush is an overrated backup; Forte is an elite RB. How are they this close? Bush isn't vulturing 130 points worth of TDs, that's for damn sure.

Is there really any reliable info suggesting these two will be anywhere close to a RBBC? Everything I hear has sounded like training camp BS and pre-Forte-signing posturing, with only the 'goal line touches' seeming to be an actual truth.

[sbh15]

I avoid Michael Bush at all costs