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View Poll Results: Would the Colts Select Andrew Luck if They Got the #1 Pick?
Yes 98 86.73%
No 15 13.27%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-09-2011, 04:44 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
Justin Blackmon, Nick Foles+ 2013 first rounder<<<<<Luck
If only Foles was good.
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Old 09-09-2011, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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I don't see how this is debatable. The Colts could potentially have that QB position secure for three decades (spanning from Manning going at #1 though Luck's potential career).
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Old 09-09-2011, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.
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Old 09-09-2011, 06:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by San Diego Chicken View Post
To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.
No rookie QB is ready "out of the box". Manning himself was horrible his rookie year. You don't draft Luck and immediately trade Manning.
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Old 09-09-2011, 07:15 PM    (permalink
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No rookie QB is ready "out of the box". Manning himself was horrible his rookie year. You don't draft Luck and immediately trade Manning.
The thought is that Luck is far further ahead of the curve than most rookie NFL QB's and ready to start right away and not a raw developmental prospect. Fair point, but how do you improve the team in the meanwhile with approximately one quarter of your payroll devoted to one position? Wayne and Mathis are free agents after this season too, and Freeney the year after. You're either re-loading, or rebuilding. Drafting Luck to me means purging the payroll and re-building.
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Old 09-09-2011, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by tjsunstein View Post
What about a team like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota even? Not great QB situations but invested a 1st in a QB last year. They don't go Luck.
Whether it's New England, Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh or Carolina, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennessee I'm taking Luck in a heartbeat. Those first four teams will just trade him away that weekend, the last four should see if anybody wants to trade for Newton, Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker.
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Old 09-09-2011, 11:30 PM    (permalink
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When the Colts have a healthy franchise QB, they're a Super Bowl contender. When he's not, a thread like this that hypothetically gives the Colts the worst record in the league is a completely legitimate thought.

It answers itself...
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Old 09-10-2011, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
The Colts gotta take Luck in the scenario.

In fact, there are only two or three teams that should even think about passing on Luck.
I'm interested to know which 2-3 teams you were referring to, Scott..
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Old 09-10-2011, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Uh, it's definitely more than 2-3...

Falcon's wouldn't consider it unless it was for trade purposes.
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Old 09-10-2011, 12:54 PM    (permalink
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No team is going to just pass on Luck at #1 for another player. Either a team is going to take him #1 or trade the pick for a load of picks/players. His value is just too high. Even if the Packers pick #1, they wouldn't pass on him. That would be like passing on a $100 bill to take a $50 bill, simply because you already have a $100 bill. You trade one of your $100 bills for a $50, 2 $20s and a $10.
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Old 09-10-2011, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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Did you really just say the Packers wouldn't pass on Andrew Luck? To me, that's the definition of hyperbole.
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Old 09-10-2011, 01:31 PM    (permalink
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I'm guessing the 2-3 he means are 2-3 that have a realistic shot of actually picking that high.

So take out the Superbowl/playoff contenders who are impossibly unlikely to be picking that high...Green Bay, Philly, New Orleans, Atlanta, San Diego, New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and I'll even throw in Houston.

The Bears and Cowboys could certainly be playoff teams imo, but if they aren't, they could be in for a regime change and the new staff may want their own QB. Even then, i don't think they'd be in position for Luck because I can't see either being #1 pick bad.

I'm going to piss of Chiefs fans but I still don't think Matt Cassel is a franchise QB, so if they were in position to take Luck, they should. I doubt they'll pick high enough for that though.

I also didn't list Detroit because if Stafford were to get hurt again, and no one should rule that out, they might need to consider moving on to a new QB if in position to take one.

So leaves us with:
Minnesota
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Miami
Washington
Jacksonville
Indy
Tennessee
Carolina
Arizona
San Fran
Seattle
Denver
Oakland

The bolded teams are ones that drafted QBs high just last year. Cincinnati is the only one I could see taking Luck if they drafted that high. The others, and I know that this sounds ridiculous but, would stick with their other recent first rounders IMO. So I'm sorry to say to fans of those teams that even if you're in position to draft Luck, I think you'll pass.

I'll also finally take out Arizona because of how much they gave up to get Kevin Kolb. There is a small chance that if they are bad enough to have a shot at luck, Whisenhunt and crew could be fired and the new staff might take Luck, not feeling as attached to Kolb. So they have a small chance.

And yes, San Fran just drafted Kaepernick, but I don't think Harbaugh would pass on a chance to reunite with Luck.

And of course, we're all debating Indy right now.

So, my list of teams who would draft Luck without hesitation are:
Cleveland
Cincy
Buffalo
Miami
Washington
San Fran
Seattle
Oakland
Denver
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Old 09-10-2011, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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Did you really just say the Packers wouldn't pass on Andrew Luck? To me, that's the definition of hyperbole.
Nope, they wouldn't pass on him because they'd have traded the #1 pick before the Draft started.
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Old 09-10-2011, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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Nope, they wouldn't pass on him because they'd have traded the #1 pick before the Draft started.
You know there is another option? If you already have a starting qb take another player who you think could have a huge impact. Of course this depends on the draft and if there are other must get players. If their is a Ndamukong Suh or Jake Long you take them.Their is no reason to take another qb just to sit on the bench and eat up salary when you get another player who can play and make an instant impact.
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Old 09-10-2011, 08:18 PM    (permalink
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You know there is another option? If you already have a starting qb take another player who you think could have a huge impact.
An NFL team is not going to pass on a player of that value, even if they don't need him, when they can instead trade down, get a package of picks/players, and still potentially get the other player they want. Some team with a very high 1st round pick would want to trade up for Luck. The team with the #1 pick might be able to move down to #2 or #3 and still get additional picks/players. Passing on Luck will only happen in the mind of fans. Luck is going #1, no matter who finishes the season with the #1 pick.
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Old 09-10-2011, 09:09 PM    (permalink
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An NFL team is not going to pass on a player of that valuable, even if they don't need him, when they can instead trade down, get a package of picks/players, and still potentially get the other player they want.
Especially not the Packers, as their GM is very much a value-oriented drafter. If trading the #1 overall pick/the rights to Luck gets you more total value than any other player you could select at that spot, then you do it in a heartbeat.

The Packers would take Luck in the improbable situation that they would select first, but they would trade away his rights before the draft is over.

But if you're picking #1 overall, the sensible thing is to take Luck. Whether it's to trade him or to play him depends on which team ends up picking there.
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Old 09-10-2011, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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The only way they would pass on Luck is if they liked Barkley more and could fleece the team in the two slot and still get the guy they wanted. With Manning's career and the relationship they have enjoyed the chances of them not grading out the more cerebral guy (Luck) higher is pretty slim.

With a really good showing this year Barkley could really close the gap for some talent evaluators. It's a long shot, but there's a reason final grades don't come in until late in the process.
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Old 09-10-2011, 10:49 PM    (permalink
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no one is gonna pass on Luck for Barkley. It's one thing that he doesn't do anything as well as Luck, it's another that he's only like 6'1".
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Old 09-10-2011, 11:04 PM    (permalink
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Default Take Luck and don't look back

There is too much value in Luck not to take him with the number 1 overall pick. But if I am a colts fan, the thought of having Luck as the successor to Peyton would be awesome. I am a Steelers fan and am hoping Pittsburgh can somehow get him. I think he will be (much) better than Big Ben.
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Old 09-10-2011, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by San Diego Chicken View Post
To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.
The NFL is a business, and if the Colts had the #1 overall pick they have to take Luck. I think Luck would only need to sit and learn for a year, maybe 2 at the most. After that, he needs to start. So if that means trading Manning when he is healthy and good again, thats what that means. And hopefully we'd get something good in return even if he is up there in age.
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Old 09-11-2011, 01:49 AM    (permalink
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Would it make more sense to draft a QB prospect with overwhelming physical gifts like Robert Griffin if you're going to let him set 4-5 years anyways. Then trade the 1st overall pick for more picks to stock that team up with talent.
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Old 09-11-2011, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by San Diego Chicken View Post
The thought is that Luck is far further ahead of the curve than most rookie NFL QB's and ready to start right away and not a raw developmental prospect. Fair point, but how do you improve the team in the meanwhile with approximately one quarter of your payroll devoted to one position? Wayne and Mathis are free agents after this season too, and Freeney the year after. You're either re-loading, or rebuilding. Drafting Luck to me means purging the payroll and re-building.
The answer is that you dont. The scenario which you have just implied is the real life scenario for the Colts for the last decade while Manning has been there.

The fact that we are even having this discussion speaks to how badly the organization has been run for the last decade. If your team is dependent on one guy and if you dont have him you go from playoff contender to possible first round pick then imagine how good you could have been if there was a real team around that guy.

People think Polian is some draft guru but he has essentially ridden Peytons coat tails for almost his entire tenure with the Colts.
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Old 09-11-2011, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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People think Polian is some draft guru but he has essentially ridden Peytons coat tails for almost his entire tenure with the Colts.
He rode Jim Kelly's coattails before that.
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Old 09-11-2011, 10:30 AM    (permalink
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The Colts are just so hard to predict. Needless to say if Peyton is out for the year, they could be the worst team in the league. So, excluding the Colts, these would be my eleven (because I think 7-11 is really close) worst teams in the league:

1) Carolina (Newton)
2) Buffalo
3) Denver
4) Cincinnati
5) Miami
6) Jacksonville (Gabbart)
7) Cleveland
8) Seattle
9) Minnesota (Ponder)
10) Arizona (Kolb)
11) Washington

Take out the four with investments in young QB's and I think that's your top 7. I also think that assures we see at least three quarterbacks go in the top 15 picks. Again.
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Old 09-11-2011, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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So, excluding the Colts, these would be my eleven (because I think 7-11 is really close) worst teams in the league:

1) Carolina (Newton)
...
6) Jacksonville (Gabbart)
...
9) Minnesota (Ponder)
10) Arizona (Kolb)

Take out the four with investments in young QB's and I think that's your top 7.
Personally, if I'm the GM for Carolina, Jacksonville, Minnesota, or Arizona I would take Andrew Luck at #1 overall. He's a much better pro prospect than Newton, Gabbert, Ponder, and Kolb, and he's likely a rare QB prospect that you can't really afford to pass up on if you have the chance to take him (I have a higher grade on Luck already than on any QB since Palmer.) At the very least, you draft him and wait for offers to come in.
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