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Old 01-08-2012, 07:49 AM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Osweiler takes snaps almost exclusively from the shotgun, makes almost no pre-snap reads, locks onto targets and refuses to go to his second or third options, throws into tight coverage regularly, alters his release angle from throw to throw, and has scattershot accuracy. What did he ever win in college? Oh yeah, nothing. Easily the least mentally ready of any major quarterback prospect.
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Old 01-08-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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I like Brock a lot as a prospect. I get the vibe that he's a complete douche, but that's just ASU in general. He's big, athletic, and could be a really great player down the road. Just needs a great coach to work with him for a year or two.

Not really sure how I'd grade him. If I'm Seattle and have no shot at Luck/Griffin, I take a serious look at this guy as he might not be there when they pick in the 2nd Round and they should be desperate enough to take a shot at a guy like this at this point.
If you're implying that Seattle would/should take him at #11 that is just rediculous. Blake might have some upside and i think a mid-round pick is about right but to reach for him in the first.... well i guess i've said enough.
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Old 01-08-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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If you're implying that Seattle would/should take him at #11 that is just rediculous. Blake might have some upside and i think a mid-round pick is about right but to reach for him in the first.... well i guess i've said enough.
Hmmm...

Hmmmm....

Where I have I heard this story before...hmmm...



Demand always outweighs supply at QB in the NFL. Guys with even the smallest hint of potential get pushed up and thrown into bad situations.

Would I take Osweiler in the 3rd and sit him for at least 2 years where he wouldn't play barring injury? Absolutely. I love his potential in a situation like that. (Think, Ryan Mallett to the Patriots situation.)

But those situations are incredibly rare and, as I said, demand outweighs supply at QB, so it wouldn't be a stretch to see him be a first round pick and end up playing next year.
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Old 01-08-2012, 12:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by BeerBaron View Post
Hmmm...

Hmmmm....

Where I have I heard this story before...hmmm...



Demand always outweighs supply at QB in the NFL. Guys with even the smallest hint of potential get pushed up and thrown into bad situations.

Would I take Osweiler in the 3rd and sit him for at least 2 years where he wouldn't play barring injury? Absolutely. I love his potential in a situation like that. (Think, Ryan Mallett to the Patriots situation.)

But those situations are incredibly rare and, as I said, demand outweighs supply at QB, so it wouldn't be a stretch to see him be a first round pick and end up playing next year.
God i'd have to call the moving van.
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Old 01-08-2012, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Osweiler takes snaps almost exclusively from the shotgun, makes almost no pre-snap reads, locks onto targets and refuses to go to his second or third options, throws into tight coverage regularly, alters his release angle from throw to throw, and has scattershot accuracy. What did he ever win in college? Oh yeah, nothing. Easily the least mentally ready of any major quarterback prospect.
That sounds an awful lot like Nick Foles minus the release point issues. I wouldn't say he's "refuses to go to his second or third options" either. He just ins't asked to within his offense. That's an issue going forward(as it is for a lot of collegian quarterbacks coming out of spread systems), but I've seen him go through progressions enough to the point where I don't think it's completely hopeless. Quickest and best example I can think of is the first scoring drive in the Missouri game. On the long pass to Robinson, he looked to Pflugrad first and gave a little pump fake. It was enough to suck the zone guy over the top in a bit and give Robinson enough space to go vertical. He did a good job hitting him in stride on the subsequent throw. Two plays later, he had trips to the free side and the inside guys ran into coverage with the outside guy not getting open fast enough. He did a good job identifying this and looking to the other side of the field and finding the back running the curl for a touchdown.

I'm sort of uncomfortable with how often Gabbert is coming up in this discussion early. I don't think it frames it in the right place, and the comparisons would not be fair. The tools are similar...but there's absolutely nothing wrong with that, Gabbert has very good tools. Osweiler has already shown early in his collegian career that he's willing to throw down the field, both long and mid-range...and he doesn't take off at the rush the same way Gabbert does.

But in the end, it's all about potential with Osweiler. His physical skills project very well to being an above average starting quarterback in the NFL with some work. After Tannehill, the guys he's competing with are limited in terms of ceiling. I would rather take a chance on Osweiler in the second or third round knowing he can develop into someone who can be a plus player as opposed to taking a guy like Foles or Cousins who I already know isn't likely to be more than a below average starter/or a backup...even if Osweiler fails to develop. It's much better to aim high and miss than it is to take a guy who you can just get by with. You can find guys like that on the scrap heap/on the end of teams rosters. The same can't be said of guys who are 6'8 with strong arms and movement skills.
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Old 01-08-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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I really don't like Osweiler as a prospect, not only does he really struggle with the mental aspect of the game, I really don't like super-tall QBs in the modern NFL (Osweiler is like 6'8"). Not only is "being a statue in the pocket" problematic in the modern NFL, but having your center of gravity that high really messes with your footwork (and Osweiler's is not good.) If there's anything that's underreported as to what separates the great from the good in the QB business, it's footwork.

So personally, while I would have a day 2 grade on Tannehill, I wouldn't take Osweiler until day 3... which is to say "I would wait for someone else to draft him." Personally, I have Osweiler graded about the same as Kellen Moore: both have big time reds I'm not sure if I can correct, for Moore it's size and arm strength, for Osweiler it's mental and footwork. Osweiler probably comes out ahead, but only just, because there's no way Moore gets taller whereas the other three red flags are theoretically fixable.

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Old 01-08-2012, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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Moore is undraftable. To even mention him in the same breath as Osweiler is insanity.
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Old 01-08-2012, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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Moore is undraftable. To even mention him in the same breath as Osweiler is insanity.
I have a sixth round grade on both of them. The difference between my sixth round grade and your undraftable isn't that large.

Both have "career backup" as their ceiling and "out of the NFL before the end of their rookie contract" as a more likely scenario.
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Old 01-08-2012, 02:25 PM    (permalink
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I have a sixth round grade on both of them. The difference between my sixth round grade and your undraftable isn't that large.

Both have "career backup" as their ceiling and "out of the NFL before the end of their rookie contract" as a more likely scenario.
I don't want a 5'11 backup QB with a arm that even Ken Dorsey laughs at.

Physical tools, which Osweiler has, always makes a guy at least worth a look. At least the base is there to build on. Osweiler, if allowed to do some sitting and developing, could become an NFL passer. That is why he is a mid-round pick based on potential.

Kellen Moore simply does not have the required physical tools for the job. Undraftable.
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Old 01-08-2012, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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It's slightly absurd to peg a guy with one year of starting experience and less than 700 attempts in major college football with the ceiling of a career backup, especially when there's a a very good package of tools. That's not how ceilings work.


Plus, it's not like the guy was completely unaccomplished as a passer in the college level; he had a pretty decent year for a first year starter. Watching tape, you come away far more impressed with the potential rather than the polish, but there's stuff to like. His release point is inconsistent, but it's a fairly quick and compact motion. He leads receivers fairly well. Moves around within the pocket very well too, and demonstrates the ability to be slippery with the rush. People make it sound like he's Blaine Gabbert at Missouri and he really wasn't.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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As an ASU fan the one thing I wish Brock would have done is held the team together after that UCLA loss. He needs to progress as a leader and develop his football intelligence. Tries to take the game into his own hands, instead of being the point guard for his offense (which was a very basic one back offense, shouldn't have been very hard to learn). Needs work on the release and mechanics too.

But the dude has the physical requisites to play in the NFL and then some. I can't honestly blame him for declaring because this program is a mess right now. Had he returned and progressed I probably would have said 2nd, maybe late 1st, right now it's looking like rounds 3-4 for me but we'll see.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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I don't want a 5'11 backup QB with a arm that even Ken Dorsey laughs at.

Physical tools, which Osweiler has, always makes a guy at least worth a look. At least the base is there to build on. Osweiler, if allowed to do some sitting and developing, could become an NFL passer. That is why he is a mid-round pick based on potential.

Kellen Moore simply does not have the required physical tools for the job. Undraftable.
If you ask me whether I'd draft a 5'11" QB or a 6'8" QB, I will draft the short guy every time. Taller than ideal is worse than shorter than ideal for a quarterback, these days.

I'm also inclined to prefer a guy with football intelligence but a weak arm over a guy with no football IQ but a canon. I don't want to draft either player though.

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Old 01-08-2012, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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So a guy has no football IQ because he made some mistakes and needs the same kind of refinement that most usually need as a first year starter? That's awfully absolute.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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There is absolutely no evidence that Osweiler lacks football IQ. You draft Moore and I'll draft Osweiler. 5 years from now, when you've got, at ABSOLUTE best, a Colt McCoy Lite averaging 5.5 ypa in an offense with no teeth, while I've developed my QB with actual physical tools into a franchise passer.

"You'll take the short guy", what an asinine thing to say.

The average NFL QB is 6'3 and if you worked out a top 10 QB list in the NFL right now, the only guy on it under 6'2 will be Drew Brees, a very serious exception to the general rule.

Also, Brees arm >>>>>>>>>>> Kellen Moore's.

You'll take Moore over Osweiler...good luck.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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So a guy has no football IQ because he made some mistakes and needs the same kind of refinement that a guy usually needs as a first year starter? That's awfully absolute.
I'm not just ragging on Osweiler because I'm bored, but he looked overwhelmed against a BSU team that is known much more for its offense than its defense. And for a guy who's suddenly jumped into the borderline first round/day one conversation, I was literally surprised by how bad I thought he looked when I started watching him. And what really bothered me, more than his lack of awareness, was his lack of accuracy. I've been making a lot of posts in support of Tannehill despite him not being the most cerebral quarterback at this stage in his career, so that's not the case I'm making against Osweiler. That is something that nearly all rookies have to make huge progress in when the enter the NFL, and for guys who haven't played the position for very long, you just understand that they've got farther to go. Sure, he could be a nice project for some guy because of his tools, but if I'm going to draft a "project" quarterback in the first few rounds, he has to show accuracy and composure, and those are the big things that were missing for me when I watched Osweiler.
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Old 01-08-2012, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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That Boise State game was a complete **** show. There's no getting around that on any front. He finished with very strong numbers, but that was the worst I saw him in the five games I saw him this year. You've got to take the fact that the coaching staff there was not long for this world(I'm fairly certain Erickson had already been told he wasn't coming back). ASU came out flat and just did not look at all prepared to play football. I'm not going to hold one game, where much of the story lines and attention were put on things other than preparing to beat a much stronger football team, against him.

...and Boise isn't exactly a scrub defensive team either. Know more for their offense? Sure. But they still finished 16th in the country defensively on the year. Arizona State was clearly outcoached and overmatched in that game.
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Old 01-08-2012, 04:04 PM    (permalink
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That Boise State game was a complete **** show. There's no getting around that on any front. He finished with very strong numbers, but that was the worst I saw him in the five games I saw him this year. You've got to take the fact that the coaching staff there was not long for this world(I'm fairly certain Erickson had already been told he wasn't coming back). ASU came out flat and just did not look at all prepared to play football. I'm not going to hold one game, where much of the story lines and attention were put on things other than preparing to beat a much stronger football team, against him.

...and Boise isn't exactly a scrub defensive team either. Know more for their offense? Sure. But they still finished 16th in the country defensively on the year. Arizona State was clearly outcoached and overmatched in that game.
What game would you suggest as evidence for his potential?
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Old 01-08-2012, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Calubflower View Post
What game would you suggest as evidence for his potential?
Missouri this past season.
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Old 01-08-2012, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Calubflower View Post
What game would you suggest as evidence for his potential?
Nothing specific. Missouri was probably the best I saw out of the games I saw (I watched USC, Oregon, and Boise as well. Out of those, he played the best against USC, although that was won with high percentage passing and misdirection more so than anything). He was real good in that one, although as a rule with Osweiler it isn't about what he did in college, it's about what he can potentially do. I don't think he was a real good fit in that offense or that he was very well coached, which certainly doesn't do him any favors when you look at his film. I don't think it's weak, but it's certainly not as strong as it should be for someone with his talent level.
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Old 01-08-2012, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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So a guy has no football IQ because he made some mistakes and needs the same kind of refinement that most usually need as a first year starter? That's awfully absolute.
Okay, I will be specific in terms of what I don't like about Osweiler:

-He's too tall.
-He has a slow release due to his length
-He's incapable of making pre-snap reads right now.
-Though that's probably because he often makes the decision of "who he's throwing the ball to" before the snap.
-His footwork is lethargic under ordinary circumstances.
-His ball-placement on intermediate routes is poor.
-He doesn't re-set his feet well when moving to a secondary target, particularly when pressured, as he gets the proverbial "happy feet."
-He drops his elbow when trying to throw quickly, or deep, which hurts his accuracy. His release point is just generally inconsistent.
-When you force him outside the pocket, he stops looking downfield.
-Worked pretty much exclusively from the gun, given his footwork troubles elsewhere I really don't know how well he can do anything that's not "catch, rock, and throw."
-He has only 15 starts and hasn't even won half of them.

He's basically a poor man's John Skelton. Can he turn into a decent NFL player? Possibly, but it will be a long reclamation project. I don't think he'll be ready to start for an NFL team before the end of his rookie contract, there's a whole lot that needs fixing. So I wouldn't take him before round six, maybe late in round 5.

Putting Moore (and Tannehill) completely aside, I have Osweiler behind Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, and Russell Wilson (among others).

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Old 01-08-2012, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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Okay, I will be specific in terms of what I don't like about Osweiler:

-He's too tall.
-He has a slow release due to his length
-He's incapable of making pre-snap reads right now.
-Though that's probably because he often makes the decision of "who he's throwing the ball to" before the snap.
-His footwork is lethargic under ordinary circumstances.
-His ball-placement on intermediate routes is poor.
-He doesn't re-set his feet well when moving to a secondary target, particularly when pressured, as he gets the proverbial "happy feet."
-He drops his elbow when trying to throw quickly, or deep, which hurts his accuracy. His release point is just generally inconsistent.
-When you force him outside the pocket, he stops looking downfield.
-Worked pretty much exclusively from the gun, given his footwork troubles elsewhere I really don't know how well he can do anything that's not "catch, rock, and throw."
-He has only 15 starts and hasn't even won half of them.

He's basically a poor man's John Skelton. Can he turn into a decent NFL player? Possibly, but it will be a long reclamation project. I don't think he'll be ready to start for an NFL team before the end of his rookie contract, there's a whole lot that needs fixing. So I wouldn't take him before round six, maybe late in round 5.
-I fail to see how being too tall is anything more than an aesthetic concern. He takes hits just fine and hasn't been ripped in half yet. He's only two inches taller than ideal; we're not talking about a guy who is like 7 feet here. An inch or two extra isn't going to make a huge difference.

-That's absolutely untrue. Osweiler's release point is an issue, but I actually think that's because he "cheats" by dropping it and just using his arm in the sake of getting the ball out. Still, his motion is very efficient and compact. He gets it out quickly, even.

-Incapable or not asked to? Cam Newton is a pretty good proof of concept that those two don't always go along. Aaron Rodgers too, if you want to go back that far.

-He doesn't need to use his feet as much as other guys do. When you can put as much on the ball as he can with pure arm strength, you can get away with throwing with your feet planted as opposed to stepping in. The important thing is that he doesn't drift backwards.

-Fair. Accuracy is something he'll have to work on.

-Fair.

-I agree. Cleaning up his release will be the biggest thing. He'll be able to get away with throwing side arm a bit because of his height, but getting it more consistent and establishing a motion he's comfortable with will be a point of emphasis. Still, we're not talking Tim Tebow here.

-Something else he'll have to work on. He clearly wasn't coached very well during his tenure at ASU. I don't think he was a real good fit for that offense either. He would have done better in a system that asked for him to throw the ball down the field more.... although he functioned in that spread fairly well.

-This is getting to be more and more of an issue that's blown of proportion with the prevalence of the spread in college. A lot of the guys you have listed ahead of him have the same issue without the advantage of Osweiler's athleticism.

So yeah, I do agree that he has some issues...they just aren't nearly big enough to outweigh the potential reward and talent level he brings to the table. Quarterbacks are adjusting quicker and quicker to the NFL game these days between the rule changes and coaching....I don't think it would take until the end of his rookie contract to clean up his release and integrate him into an NFL offense.

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Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage View Post
Putting Moore (and Tannehill) completely aside, I have Osweiler behind Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, and Russell Wilson (among others).
It's funny, because a lot of those guys have some of the concerns you have about Osweiler except to an even worse extent, without the talent to make up for it. Foles is basically the guy you think Osweiler is; inaccurate, poor at making reads, throwing into coverage often, and a complete statue. Keenum plays in a system that doesn't demand complex reads and is the epitome of quarterback friendly. Wilson is drastically undersized, lacks the arm strength to be an NFL starter, and is another one read guy. Weeden I have a tougher time knocking, but the fact that he's going to be close to 30 his rookie year isn't going to do him any favors.

Just to be clear; I'm not in love with Osweiler. I like what he can do and I think there's still a whole to of potential there. With that comes significant projection, but I don't see Blaine Gabbert like some of you do. My main thing is that I think it's slightly asinine to have him ranked behind guys who clearly aren't going to be much more than backups in the NFL.
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Old 01-09-2012, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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I single handedly beat Osweiler when ASU played at Illinois in September. I don't usually go to games because I'd rather watch good college teams on TV, but that night I whipped that student section into shape. Started a couple Osweiler chants. Dude was lost.

The sad thing is there is a small part of me that actually believes this ^
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Old 01-10-2012, 08:23 PM    (permalink
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I looked at that Illinois game, statistically his worst game of the season, expecting to see something awful. Far from it.

He demonstrated some strong pocket awareness, footwork and NFL type throws while under pressure. His picks were basically flukes off of deflections (hit while passing and a tip at the line.) Illinois had free rushers all game and he showed poise, ignoring them and moving in the pocket, staying focused down-field and throwing or taking off and showing good running ability. Illinois' defense played well and overwhelmed him more than a few times (6 sacks)but generally he stood in, fired the ball and took his shots. It's what I've seen from him in most of the games I've watched. In that sense, he's nothing like Gabbert. And I didn't see any glaring accuracy issues despite the heavy pressure.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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He has a lot of Mallet's negative qualities. He just stands there and throws it. Doesn't seem to move very well within in the pocket, doesn't try to manipulate the defense with his eyes, seems slow to react when the defense throws him something he's not expecting. Granted I'm basing this off of two games early in the season and a little bit of his bowl game, but at this point I think he's a mid rounder.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:12 PM    (permalink
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He has a lot of Mallet's negative qualities. He just stands there and throws it. Doesn't seem to move very well within in the pocket, doesn't try to manipulate the defense with his eyes, seems slow to react when the defense throws him something he's not expecting. Granted I'm basing this off of two games early in the season and a little bit of his bowl game, but at this point I think he's a mid rounder.
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