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Old 03-29-2007, 06:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jsagan77 View Post
No, we do and it's rediculous. And another thing that is rediculous is the fact that people don't think that the deal we offered for Briggs is fair. If anything I think that we are getting the short end a little considering team needs. If Chicago wants to be a hardass then we should tell them to stick it, trade down or pick up the best DL available and start Rocky Fletcher and Washington.
I don't think anyone thinks it's not fair. Even the most strident Bears fan would agree its fair. As a Bears fan, I hope the deal happens for us ... but as a football realist, it's a steal of a deal. The only reason people think that the Redskins can get more is due to the perception of the Redskins not thinking their moves out.
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Old 03-29-2007, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Smokey Joe View Post
toony... forget about Washington. This is Bear Country!
Eh, I'd prefer to hear smart comments that are backed up, rather than gross generalizations. I'm sure I could be called out on that at times as well, and I fully admit that. But if people are going to make comments, I wish they'd be able to back them up, instead of using hindsight as a tool, or viewing it as a 1-sided perspective.
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Old 03-29-2007, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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You've got a lot of benefits of hindsight there Toon. You could say that about basically anything. After a while I think the benefit of the doubt can't be extended anymore. The Redskins have been a bad team since he took over. The proof is in the pudding.
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Old 03-29-2007, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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You've got a lot of benefits of hindsight there Toon. You could say that about basically anything. After a while I think the benefit of the doubt can't be extended anymore. The Redskins have been a bad team since he took over. The proof is in the pudding.
Which defense did I use benefit of hindsight? I'm very, very curious which defense I used from benefit of hindsight. The defense of Archuleta was from last offseason (loss of Ryan Clark, move to a cover-2 base D, need for a strong safety with an in the box style). I added a benefit of hindsight section relative to show where the problems went wrong.

Chad Morton? Came off a great year as a return man in New York. Cost a 5th round pick.

Maybe a case can be made that I used some benefit of hindsight with Randle-El. But the main case was that they needed more offensive weapons and he was a potential fit for the Saunders system.

Don't see where I used benefit of hindsight at all?

Btw, in case it wasn't noted, Redskins Insider blog notes that Mark Maske thinks the chances of a deal is slightly better than 50-50.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/
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Old 03-29-2007, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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You've got a lot of benefits of hindsight there Toon. You could say that about basically anything. After a while I think the benefit of the doubt can't be extended anymore. The Redskins have been a bad team since he took over. The proof is in the pudding.
One other thing, I'm not defending the moves because I agree with them. I've clearly noted that I haven't agreed with many of the moves. That being said, 4 of the 5 moves mentioned so far, I can defend them and feel fine about 3 of it.

Edit: On a side note, you know how I feel about using history as a factor in judging a team's decision-making

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Old 03-29-2007, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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it wouldn't really surprise me that much at this point. i don't believe we have any serious intention of addressing the d-line early, and i think most people are right that the value at our biggest need (dt) isn't really all that much better at 21 than it would be in round 2 somewhere. that's not even taking into account the cap problems we've caused ourselves with moronic signings.
I could see the Broncos making a small move up if Alan Branch or a higher ranked DE fell. THere's some teams in the teens that likely would prefer moving down (for example, Bengals). But that'll be a draft day move if it happens.
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Old 03-29-2007, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Don't see where I used benefit of hindsight at all?
I see what you're saying. I skimmed your arguments cause they are always so long and kept seeing that pop up and misunderstood.

I'm still not really convinced by any of them though. Everyone has some sort of rationalization behind the moves they make. So what? Even Al Davis' crazy ass has a thought process behind his moves. When almost none of them work what does it matter why?

In regards to Randle-El, if that's the case they simply got lucky that he fell into the lineup. They gave him that much money because they had him as their 4th rated reciever and had him regulated as the slot? Yet they continue to push out retreads like Phillip Daniels at DE? Yeah they signed Andre Carter but he's far some a pass-rushing answer as was seen this year.

The Redskins have a defense that generates very little pass rush and have a secondary that beyond Springs has nobody that is beyond average in coverage. I'll give Greg Williams credit for maintaining a top notch defense prior to this year despite limited talent.

I can see what they are trying to do with the offense, but even there some of those moves make no sense at all.

A 3rd rounder for T.J Duckett only to barely use him and then let him walk? Does that make any sense?

I'm sorry, I know you're a Redskins fan and you can argue till you're blue in the face but at the end of the day the majority of the moves they've made have not worked out and they haven't won anything on the field. Perhaps that does lead to gross overgeneralizations as you've stated, but I don't think it's completely unfounded.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:00 PM    (permalink
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One other thing, I'm not defending the moves because I agree with them. I've clearly noted that I haven't agreed with many of the moves. That being said, 4 of the 5 moves mentioned so far, I can defend them and feel fine about 3 of it.

Edit: On a side note, you know how I feel about using history as a factor in judging a team's decision-making
Yeah I do, and as a historian I'm inclined to agree with you because the past does NOT predict the future.

That being said, when a move like this is proposed, it's going to naturally lead people to roll their eyes and say "there go the Redskins again".
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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Really the redskins should be able to get briggs a third and their first for the 6.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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For the record I don't think this trade is that bad other than the fact that it's more of a want when they have much more pressing needs.

The value, IMO, is solid considering Briggs' age.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:07 PM    (permalink
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Really the redskins should be able to get briggs a third and their first for the 6.
What?

Briggs
3rd Rounder
1st Rounder

For the 6th pick? Am I reading this right?

You're nuts dude if that's what you meant. If it's not clear this up for me please.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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What?

Briggs
3rd Rounder
1st Rounder

For the 6th pick? Am I reading this right?

You're nuts dude if that's what you meant. If it's not clear this up for me please.
How is that nuts? It's one of the last picks in the 3rd round, it's value is negligible. If this is to be considered a deal weighted towards the Bears I don't think adding a late round 3rd would make it "nuts" on the other end.

That being said, the deal is reportedly already out there, so I don't think the ball is in the Redskins court to modify it at this point.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:17 PM    (permalink
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How is that nuts? It's one of the last picks in the 3rd round, it's value is negligible. If this is to be considered a deal weighted towards the Bears I don't think adding a late round 3rd would make it "nuts" on the other end.

That being said, the deal is reportedly already out there, so I don't think the ball is in the Redskins court to modify it at this point.
I disagree but that's ok. A 5th or a 6th round pick is "negligible," not a late 3rd rounder.

And regardless of it's value in the grand scheme of things, the pick has great value to JA with what he can do in the middle rounds.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:28 PM    (permalink
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It's ridiculous how everyone is making a crazy deal out of this because it's the skins, if it were lets say the Panthers, everyone would be like wow what a great deal they are acquiring an elite linebacker who is young. But because it's the Skins everyone wants to be a 15 page thread with every post saying how the skins are so dumb and getting ripped off. I agree with everyone that LB is not our biggest need, and if you go by the "value chart" we get screwed, but the way everyone is picking apart the skins is just terrible. I agree Snyder is an idiot and he has brought this franchise with great history down as he cares more about money than winning, but the way people rip the skins is so funny, because atleast we try to get the pieces together and have had success here in there instead of some teams who have done nothing the past 10 years and have accepted defeat. I agree that Snyder knows nothing about building a team and keeping team chemistry but it isn't as bad as you think it is. This offseason we took strides only limiting ourselves to 1 big signing of London Fletcher and Fred Smoot which isn't even that much if you look at the guaranteed money compared to what people were making out to be in an inflated cap year mind you not. Also we resigned all of our players and gave out contract extensions to long time skins like Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas while making the important smaller resignings like a Vernon Fox who outplayed Adam Archuleta last year. The only Free Agent we lost was Derrick Dockery but we didn't feel and I don't feel he's worth 50 million dollars, he is an average to above average lineman at best. While I can never and will never agree with Snyder's way of running a franchise we are not in that bad shape that people make it out to be, and the Skins could really surprise next year. If you wanna make a post every second about how dumb the Skins are go ahead but you'd be surprised with this team, I'm not gonna guarantee the playoffs or anything but I guarantee the Skins will be competitive in every game, much to the chagrin of most posters here, the Skins actually have a very solid team that realistically could make a playoff push next year.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:45 PM    (permalink
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I see what you're saying. I skimmed your arguments cause they are always so long and kept seeing that pop up and misunderstood.

I'm still not really convinced by any of them though. Everyone has some sort of rationalization behind the moves they make. So what? Even Al Davis' crazy ass has a thought process behind his moves. When almost none of them work what does it matter why?

In regards to Randle-El, if that's the case they simply got lucky that he fell into the lineup. They gave him that much money because they had him as their 4th rated reciever and had him regulated as the slot? Yet they continue to push out retreads like Phillip Daniels at DE? Yeah they signed Andre Carter but he's far some a pass-rushing answer as was seen this year.

The Redskins have a defense that generates very little pass rush and have a secondary that beyond Springs has nobody that is beyond average in coverage. I'll give Greg Williams credit for maintaining a top notch defense prior to this year despite limited talent.

I can see what they are trying to do with the offense, but even there some of those moves make no sense at all.

A 3rd rounder for T.J Duckett only to barely use him and then let him walk? Does that make any sense?

I'm sorry, I know you're a Redskins fan and you can argue till you're blue in the face but at the end of the day the majority of the moves they've made have not worked out and they haven't won anything on the field. Perhaps that does lead to gross overgeneralizations as you've stated, but I don't think it's completely unfounded.
As noted, I'm not defending the moves because I agree with them. Last year, I thought the Duckett move was a fatal mistake, and I thought the Brandon Lloyd move, while not a bad value deal, wasn't needed. I could go through a litany of recent moves I disagree with. That said, I was fine with the Randle-El and Archuleta moves.

Here's the first question I ask: Is personnel accumulation in the NFL anything more than rationalizing, projecting, and assessing how individuals fit? I put rationalizing first because that is, inherently, what every team does in an attempt to justify a move, whether it is in the draft or in FA.

So why do I ask that? In short, you have to judge each move irrespective of other possible situations, as much as possible, and determine what kind of factor they play in the whole scheme of things. And, every move, positive or negative, is based on the rationalizations at the time.

Now, onto Randle-El. Yes, I have no idea why he was ranked 4th on the Redskins list (I believe it was Lloyd, Jurevicius, Bryant, Randle-El in that order). That said, he was the first to get signed (and hence, why I viewed the Lloyd deal as unnecessary). One of the coaches, I forget who (probably Saunders, though ...) pushed really hard for him and Joe went and got him. If it was Saunders, from Joe and the mgmt's perspective, then getting him makes sense, as your new OC feels he can fit. So why did they push for him that much? Largely because they felt that he would provide a boost in the return game, which the Skins needed help. The dollars can certainly be critiqued, but that would belie the fact that there is a continued upward trend in terms of overall salaries.

Btw, Phillip Daniels had a very solid 2005, with 8 sacks, and overall solid play. He's still basically the same player he was a few years ago, not much has really changed. A number of factors contributed to lesser stats this past year, but that's for another time. As for the Andre Carter signing (wasn't asked to comment on that previously), I thought it was a good move and supported it as well. When he was last in the 4-3 fully as a DE, he had put up solid sack numbers, but more importantly, good pressure numbers if I remember correctly. It made sense, the Redskins need a pass rush specialist. So, where did things go wrong for the bulk of the early season? A large part of it was due to Renaldo Wynn's struggles, forcing Carter to play in situations not suited for his game.

As for the offense, I'm not sure what other moves didn't make sense, outside of Lloyd that is. If you want to go 2 years ago, Patten made sense. Even giving up Dockery was probably the right move this offseason. And the biggest reason why their offense struggled this past year was due more to Al Saunders really, than overall personnel, in that, after Portis went down, Saunders seemed hesitant to trust Ladell Betts to handle the load, which he ended up doing just fine.

The short of it is, I could care less if people critique any team's moves, including the Skins. I would just hope that they give some thought as to what the argument is. I'm sure I can be critiqued for not doing that as well, and I fully admit it. It just gets a bit annoying after awhile when people make these comments without actually giving any thought to the situation at the time and putting it in perspective.

I'll come to the defense of any team if I believe that they made the moves with some sort of rationalization that makes sense (of course, it helps if I somewhat believe the moves are right - for example, I fully think the Bills moves this offseason were justified and fine, I thought the Patrick Kerney move was a big gamble that didn't make much sense as the key determinant factor, IMO, for that defense to be strong is a healthy Marcus Tubbs anchoring the middle, and a whole number of other moves).
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Btw, one lost factor in the "Is Briggs a fit for the Redskins scheme?" issue is that Greg Blache is currently over in Washington, and unless I have my timeline mistaken, his final year was also Lance's rookie season.
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Old 03-29-2007, 07:50 PM    (permalink
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Really the redskins should be able to get briggs a third and their first for the 6.
Actually, I don't think so. As much as I think Bears fans overall overrate the leverage in the power situation here, Angelo does have some ground to hold on. Furthermore, Angelo has to watch out for what's best for the Bears, and history shows that, as much as Rosenhaus may lead his guy to gripe, more times than not, his guys will eventually come in, even if it is late. At least, I can't think of many Rosenhaus guys that actually held out when the season started. Thus, Angelo may be able to anticipate Lance eventually coming back if he doesn't find a deal that he likes, and Angelo also knows that Lance is necessary to this team due to the lack of depth.

Short of it is, I think the value of the deal isn't that far off. The only reason I am in a "I don't like it, I don't hate it" mode is because I don't think Briggs is necessary in Washington.

A case can be made, though, that, in terms of consistency, Washington's LB's last year had a lot of struggles, which is due, in large part, to Marshall's struggles in the middle (which also is due to the Redskins DL struggles at the POA), and Holdman/McIntosh not really being up to task. Not saying I agree with it completely, but a case can be made on that.
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Old 03-29-2007, 08:00 PM    (permalink
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I disagree but that's ok. A 5th or a 6th round pick is "negligible," not a late 3rd rounder.

And regardless of it's value in the grand scheme of things, the pick has great value to JA with what he can do in the middle rounds.
I think JA gets overcredit with midround draft picks, at least, so far in his tenure. But using the 3rd-5th as middle rounds

2002 -

Roosevelt Williams - Bleh.

Terrence Metcalf - Good depth, but eh, tis a guard.

Alex Brown - Nice pickup.

Bobby Gray - Eh, probably deserved more of a chance than he ever got, but then again, nothing worth getting up about.

Bryan Knight - eh.

2003 -

Lance Briggs - No questions needed.

Todd Johnson - Eh, ambivalent towards him, but his best asset was he's a smart player. For a 4th rounder, though?

Ian Scott - Solid player.

Bobby Wade - Somehow got the Vikings to ante up this offseason.

Justin Gage - Never panned out.

Tron LaFavor - Whatever happened to him (I think he went to Dallas for a bit)

2004 -

Bernard Berrian - Solid pickup that made a lot of sense with the OC at the time, and give Berrian credit for adjusting.

Nathan Vasher - Solid pickup, although more of a scheme corner.

Leon Joe, Claude Harriott, Craig Krenzel - At the least, Joe is around. But I don't think any of us want to go into the season with Joe as the starting weakside backer.

2005 -

Kyle Orton - Nice pickup.

Airese Currie - Still hasn't done anything.

2006 -

Dusty Dvoracek - Like him, but has to do something first to get adequately judged.

Jamar Williams - Huge fan of him, but see Dusty.

Mark Anderson - Steal, and still not sure how he fell that far, but oh well.

It's not bad, by any means. Probably above average for GM's, although too lazy to look through and make a judgment. A lot of people seem to make his track record in the middle rounds as superb. I don't see it. Nice, and capable.
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Old 03-29-2007, 08:31 PM    (permalink
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That's a horrible deal. Get real.
Seriously..that deal is a joke. You have to be kidding me. LMAO!!
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Old 03-30-2007, 02:14 AM    (permalink
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I think JA gets overcredit with midround draft picks, at least, so far in his tenure. But using the 3rd-5th as middle rounds
I agree with this, he is a tad overrated, but if you want to compare those picks with the draft picks of teams that are considered to draft well, the Bears selections compare very well IMO.

Besides, the 2002 and 2003 draft picks where selected for Dick Jauron teams, I'm sure if the Bears had switched to the tampa 2 defence those years, something of which I think Angelo had more experienced in drafting thanks to all those years in tampa bay, he might have made better defensive player draft picks.
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Old 03-30-2007, 08:21 AM    (permalink
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I agree with this, he is a tad overrated, but if you want to compare those picks with the draft picks of teams that are considered to draft well, the Bears selections compare very well IMO.

Besides, the 2002 and 2003 draft picks where selected for Dick Jauron teams, I'm sure if the Bears had switched to the tampa 2 defence those years, something of which I think Angelo had more experienced in drafting thanks to all those years in tampa bay, he might have made better defensive player draft picks.
Not to mention that Jauron had much more contractual power of personel than Lovie has had (though that looks like it may be changing). It wasn't untill Ed McCaskey fired and Ted Phillips truely took over that Jerry was able to fire Jauron and get full control over personel.
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Old 03-30-2007, 08:50 AM    (permalink
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I was wondering how you get 20,000 posts since 2005... Toonster has shown me the light. =0)
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Old 03-30-2007, 09:08 AM    (permalink
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Precisely. Even if your opinion is based on nothing more then conjecture and speculation, when you are right 80% of the time (and I would say that's a fair number in relation to the moves the Redskins make that don't work out), you're likely doing better than someone that tries to rationalize everything. More informed? No. More precise? Eh...you be the judge.
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Old 03-30-2007, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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I get the feeling that Jerry Angelo is going to go after the skins' 2008 and 2009 picks and might be willing to take less in trade value if the skins might be willing to part with either Washington or Marshall.

The number 6 pick would be like a white elephant for the Bears this year. Especially if they can't find a trade partner to trade down with.
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Old 03-30-2007, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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I get the feeling that Jerry Angelo is going to go after the skins' 2008 and 2009 picks and might be willing to take less in trade value if the skins might be willing to part with either Washington or Marshall.

The number 6 pick would be like a white elephant for the Bears this year. Especially if they can't find a trade partner to trade down with.
I also wonder how many of those available players they have scouted thinking at the time that none of them would be available.
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Old 03-30-2007, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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let's be realistic then. if, with the benefit of hindsight, a small percentage of the major moves the skins have made have worked out, one can, to a point, project that in more future deals than not (assuming there are no front office changes between) they will give up more value. that doesn't make it always true. it doesn't necessarily mean it's ever true. but when enough bailey for portis deals and bad signings happen to a team, it's not unreasonable for people to expect that other deals that team makes will be equally ugly. for instance, in the denver/atlanta/washington trade last year, even without the benefit of hindsight, it was looked at as a remarkably stupid move by washington. now that duckett is a free agent (or was, now he's on the lions), the skins have basically given up a third and fourth round pick for a guy who carried the ball 38 times for them.

*shrug*

i'm of the joking opinion that denver will screw washington over every year, however it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that a deal that looks one sided could turn out surprisingly well for the skins. but past ineptitude (given hindsight) does not project well for future deals for the team.
The Duckett trade was horrible. I didn't get that, and I thought that was a poor move.

But let's go back to that Bailey trade, then, for a second. I wonder if people remember the dynamics of that offseason? Plenty of CB's were on the market, and it was becoming increasingly clear that there was going to be a lot of overpaid CB's due to the necessity in finding high level talent (off the top of my head, that was the offseason Bailey, McAllister, and Winfield, amongst others).

Fact number 2 is something lost amongst people these days. At the end of 2003, many observers believed that the Redskins best CB was NOT Champ Bailey that year, but rather Fred Smoot. The benefit of hindsight has allowed us

a) Question how much better Bailey made Smoot look
b) Acknowledge that was simply an off year for Bailey

Now, using that frame of analysis, let's go back in time for a second.

Before that, actually, let me say that I was lukewarm on the trade. It made sense, and I understood it, but the value wasn't exactly the best.

So, you are the Washington Redskins that offseason. Champ Bailey is likely going to demand a huge contract. You believe, as did many, that Fred Smoot was a legit top cover man. Do you pay Bailey all that, while not addressing your needs, or do you try to make a move and add a CB later (which they did with Shawn Springs)? They had a huge need for a running back, and with Portis' age, the general perspective was that, even if he wasn't going to be as good as he was in Denver, he was likely going to be good for a long time, provided he stay healthy.

Now, the reason I wasn't gung ho about the move, as noted, was the value. That being said, people tend to forget that Portis was coming off a monstrous season, and he was limited by 3 games. Yes, people knew that the system helped, but Portis was also viewed as being a top talent irrespective of the system. Had it been a 3rd and Bailey, then I would've felt much better about it from the Skins perspective. Dealing Bailey allowed the Skins to sign Cornelius Griffin and Shawn Springs basically.

The short of it is, I don't think, in a case by case analysis, which is essentially what we are looking at since we are discussing specifically, the Briggs deal, that the gross generalizations hold, but sure, from a generic time referencing standpoint, eh. The point of this whole thing is that, using hindsight as a justification for why a move failed, isn't fair. Saying that the Redskins return on their moves haven't been good, fine. Saying that they always make dumb moves, or something of that ilk, is being short-sighted as to how NFL teams operate. Again, its the execution moreso than the philosophy that has failed them. The philosophy's bad, IMO, but its the execution.
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On a side note, there seems to be some speculation that the Bears might ask for a huge return ... by adding Rocky McIntosh and maybe a future pick. Just a rumor that I picked up, though. As noted, anything more than the current deal would be great for us, horrendous for the Skins.

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