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Old 03-27-2007, 06:53 PM    (permalink
WMD
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Question Calvin Johnson.

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Originally Posted by Kowalski's Blog :: 2/25/07
There are a lot of players worthy of the No. 2 pick but none that really excite the Lions. The two quarterbacks? Donít really want them. Adrian Peterson? Not if Kevin Jones is still on track? Calvin Johnson? The Lions wonít be taking a receiver in the first round in Marinelliís lifetime.
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Originally Posted by Kowalski's Blog :: 3/24/07
As of this moment, on this day, if the Lions get "stuck'' with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, I believe they'll take receiver Calvin Johnson. If Johnson is gone, I believe their next pick would be Joe Thomas.

The Lions' interest in Calvin Johnson:: Genuine or Smoke Screen? The interest really seems to have blown up the past week or two. I love the idea of Calvin Johnson on the Lions... But I don't know if the Lions are actually serious about taking him.. What do you guys think?
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Old 03-27-2007, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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The Lions' interest in Calvin Johnson:: Genuine or Smoke Screen? The interest really seems to have blown up the past week or two. I love the idea of Calvin Johnson on the Lions... But I don't know if the Lions are actually serious about taking him.. What do you guys think?
I noted the first quote in a different argument... and I believe that Marinelli will NOT want a WR in round 1. Yes... that should be obvious... he's a defensive-minded coach. Regardless, the offense had a great year last year and will only improve with a better OLine and better running game.

CJ will be great... but I think the team needs a Willis or Adams more than they need a CJ. And, I think Marinelli feels the same way.
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Old 03-27-2007, 07:00 PM    (permalink
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TacticaLion is right on those points, the Lions don't need CJ to have a productive offense and passing game. Also don't count out the fact that Martz likes smaller undersized recievers, and they already have a big one in Roy, so he wouldn't want another.
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Old 03-27-2007, 07:25 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a Lions fan, but I love the draft and I always follow other teams closely.....and as an outsider's opinions I am under the impression that if Detroit can sell a tradedown (which I don't think they will) then they'll take Calvin Johnson because:
a) he is definitely the best player available
b) the Lions apparently don't want Quinn or Russell and will probably get a Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton in round 3
c) won't reach for Adams probably, and I'm 100% sure Willis or Landry won't go 2nd overall either.

Johnson would be good, and unlike Rogers and Williams he has 0 questions marks and is the closest thing to a surefire star I've ever seen. Johnson, Williams, and Furrey would be a sick trio (why run the ball?) and Detroit's offense would kick @**. Like I said, I don't think Minnesota or Cleveland is gonna buy into the Quinn to Detroit hype, and I don't think Tampa will trade up for CJ at Detroit's asking price

And regarding Joe Thomas, they have 3 guards to fill 2 spots, a good center, and they are set at the tackles, so there is no spot for JT. I say either CJ or Quinn, and it doesn't sound too good for Quinn.
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Old 03-27-2007, 08:20 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by keylime_5 View Post
I'm not a Lions fan, but I love the draft and I always follow other teams closely.....and as an outsider's opinions I am under the impression that if Detroit can sell a tradedown (which I don't think they will) then they'll take Calvin Johnson because:
a) he is definitely the best player available
b) the Lions apparently don't want Quinn or Russell and will probably get a Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton in round 3
c) won't reach for Adams probably, and I'm 100% sure Willis or Landry won't go 2nd overall either.

Johnson would be good, and unlike Rogers and Williams he has 0 questions marks and is the closest thing to a surefire star I've ever seen. Johnson, Williams, and Furrey would be a sick trio (why run the ball?) and Detroit's offense would kick @**. Like I said, I don't think Minnesota or Cleveland is gonna buy into the Quinn to Detroit hype, and I don't think Tampa will trade up for CJ at Detroit's asking price

And regarding Joe Thomas, they have 3 guards to fill 2 spots, a good center, and they are set at the tackles, so there is no spot for JT. I say either CJ or Quinn, and it doesn't sound too good for Quinn.
I can't say that I agree.

Trading down will be easy for the Lions this year. They have the rights to the best players in the draft, and have let the other teams know it. If you want CJ (and you aren't the Raiders), you need to go through Detroit. If you want Quinn, same rules apply. The only way they WONT trade down is if this entire thing has been a smokescreen and they really want Quinn (or CJ). I don't think that's the case.

I think Gaines Adams and Patrick Willis are two options for them in the first round... but I'd be VERY suprised if, after the offensive success from last year, they targeted a WR in the 1st round... especially with all of the defensive holes. I expect a trade down... and they'll have takers.
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Old 03-27-2007, 08:30 PM    (permalink
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The ONLY possible taker for a trade up targeting Calvin Johnson is Tampa Bay who might get scared that Detroit will snag their guy and in that case Bruce Allen might move up to ensure he gets Johnson. Atlanta won't do it and Minnesota seems set on not trading up for anybody - neither CJ or Quinn.

I can't think of any takers for Quinn now that Houston has Schaub except Cleveland, but I strongly doubt that Savage will trade up with Detroit unless the asking price was really cheap meaning a 3rd rounder or less based on what he said recently.

Also, If you want CJ or Quinn teams don't necessarily have to go through Detroit they could also go through Cleveland for both possibly if they feel Detroit will pass on the one they want (not sayin CLE will trade though, just hypothetical). Detroit has let it known they are willing to deal, but the only team in the whole draft conceivably trading with Detroit is Tampa.

Tradedowns don't happen all that much, ESPECIALLY in the top 5. I highly doubt Detroit finds a buyer unless by some miracle Tampa gives up a buttload to jump to #2.
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Old 03-27-2007, 08:44 PM    (permalink
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The ONLY possible taker for a trade up targeting Calvin Johnson is Tampa Bay who might get scared that Detroit will snag their guy and in that case Bruce Allen might move up to ensure he gets Johnson. Atlanta won't do it and Minnesota seems set on not trading up for anybody - neither CJ or Quinn.

I can't think of any takers for Quinn now that Houston has Schaub except Cleveland, but I strongly doubt that Savage will trade up with Detroit unless the asking price was really cheap meaning a 3rd rounder or less based on what he said recently.

Also, If you want CJ or Quinn teams don't necessarily have to go through Detroit they could also go through Cleveland for both possibly if they feel Detroit will pass on the one they want (not sayin CLE will trade though, just hypothetical). Detroit has let it known they are willing to deal, but the only team in the whole draft conceivably trading with Detroit is Tampa.

Tradedowns don't happen all that much, ESPECIALLY in the top 5. I highly doubt Detroit finds a buyer unless by some miracle Tampa gives up a buttload to jump to #2.
You've only mentioned top 10 teams with your trades... and you've only answered the easy teams in the top 10. What about the Redskins? Having Santana Moss and CJ (with Randle El in the slot)... tha'd be quite an offense. Also, the Cardinals could still trade up for JThomas (although that trade is unlikely). There will be a team that wants CJ (or another player)... and, if the price is right, they'll probably take it.
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Old 03-27-2007, 09:30 PM    (permalink
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^^^^ Redskins have an anemic d-line. Other than Cornelius Griffin they have nothing. I don't see them taking any offensive players especially since they don't pick again until the 5th round.
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Old 03-27-2007, 09:34 PM    (permalink
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Thumbs up

I'll take Calvin. Let them laugh.
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Old 03-27-2007, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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Well Tactica like I said it is highly unlikely that any other teams that I didn't mention trade to that 2 spot. Detroit does not want to trade down very far, and a trade from outside the top ten to the 2nd overall spot pretty much never happens and if it did it would have to be for like 2 firsts and 3rd plus other picks. There is less than a 0% chance of Washington moving up, they have one pick before like round 5 so needless to say they have no ammo whatsoever. The idea of the Lions trading down is just wishful thinking. Realisitically the chances of an actual trade occuring are very slim.
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Old 03-27-2007, 11:40 PM    (permalink
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Here's a thought for you our #2 to the 49ers for the #11 + their 2nd and next years 1st. We get our star MLB in Willis with good value and another impact player, like Meriweather, with the 9ers second. San Fran gets their legit star in CJ after filling most of their other needs in free agency.

First day of: #11-P Willis, #34-Spencer, #42-Meriweather, #66-Hughes would suit me pretty well, not to mention the future flexibility it gives us in next years draft.
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Old 03-28-2007, 04:22 AM    (permalink
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Well Tactica like I said it is highly unlikely that any other teams that I didn't mention trade to that 2 spot. Detroit does not want to trade down very far, and a trade from outside the top ten to the 2nd overall spot pretty much never happens and if it did it would have to be for like 2 firsts and 3rd plus other picks. There is less than a 0% chance of Washington moving up, they have one pick before like round 5 so needless to say they have no ammo whatsoever. The idea of the Lions trading down is just wishful thinking. Realisitically the chances of an actual trade occuring are very slim.
We shall see come draft day. Nothing I say will convince you otherwise... because there's always a reason (or excuse) that you can use.

The Lions will trade down.
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Old 03-28-2007, 05:22 AM    (permalink
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CJ will be great... but I think the team needs a Willis or Adams more than they need a CJ. And, I think Marinelli feels the same way.
Actually, this is something I just thought of, but I think it makes sense.

If you look at the great QB-WR combo's, you'll see that in most cases the receiver was drafted one or two years before the quarterback, (Manning/Harrison, Palmer/Johnson etc.) now if we were to take CJ this year, and then next year we'd take some other first round QB (don't tell me we don't need qb, we do, Kitna (35!) is a turnover machine, orlovsky i'm not sure of and McCown wants out) we'd be (once again, remember C-Rog and Harrington?) ready to have that kind of combo. With Roy Williams as our very own Reggie Wayne... I like.

But you're right about Willis Adams, Landry and most defensive guys (except maybe Branch, Okoye and other DT's) would fill more of a need. If we fail to trade down, and they do not pick CJ, I will personally urinate on Matt Millen's car.
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Old 03-28-2007, 06:49 AM    (permalink
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If I'm Tampa, I don't think I'd even pick up the phone unless Detroit picked Calvin. It reminds me of the Eli-Rivers thing. I think Detroit would have to actually pull the trigger first to even get into talks.
So here is what I think Millen's option list looks like:
i) Draft CJ, endure ridicule and try to move him
ii) Trade down, get owned on the trade value chart and get ridiculed for that (e.g. Tampa #4 and a 3rd rounder)
iii) Draft a QB your coach doesn't want (see JH saga)
iv) Joe Thomas
v) Reach for a defender

Given this list, I think he takes Joe Thomas. The spin would be good value and Martz's offense really needs two left tackles. Note: I completely concede the fact that tackle is nowhere near the top 3 needs of this team, the Backus/Foster/Tucker/Scott combo should be serviceable. I'm just trying to guess what I think Millen will do.
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:03 AM    (permalink
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This is a good post with a lot of interesting perspective in it. First of all, I believe that Detroit picking CJ is definitely a smokescreen, but its the best kind of smokescreen because its totally believable that they could take the best player in the draft. However, showing interest in CJ also increases the chance for a trade down, which everyone agrees is Detroits real goal. The question then, is who would be willing to trade down? Any team in the top 5 could be a possibility, but after that no one will or can afford to give fair value to move to 2.

I believe that if Detroit can't find a trade partner, they will take Quinn at 2. Marinelli wants to get a premiere defensive player in this draft, but there isn't one with #2 overall value. If they are forced to go offense I think they will take the franchise QB, which is an obvious need on this rebuilding team. Roy Williams is a legit #1 and Furrey had 98 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 TD's in his first year as a starter. To say that another WR will help Detroit win games is wishful thinking. They need a QB who will win close games as opposed to committing so many game changing turnovers. The only reason that Detroit wouldn't take a QB at 2 is because they're committed to taking a defensive player, which means that CJ is out of the mix too.

If Detroit can't trade down I think they're draft board should go Russell, Quinn, Adams/Willis. I do like Mythos' idea of taking CJ to force TB into a trade, though.
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:15 AM    (permalink
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Actually, this is something I just thought of, but I think it makes sense.

If you look at the great QB-WR combo's, you'll see that in most cases the receiver was drafted one or two years before the quarterback, (Manning/Harrison, Palmer/Johnson etc.) now if we were to take CJ this year, and then next year we'd take some other first round QB (don't tell me we don't need qb, we do, Kitna (35!) is a turnover machine, orlovsky i'm not sure of and McCown wants out) we'd be (once again, remember C-Rog and Harrington?) ready to have that kind of combo. With Roy Williams as our very own Reggie Wayne... I like.

But you're right about Willis Adams, Landry and most defensive guys (except maybe Branch, Okoye and other DT's) would fill more of a need. If we fail to trade down, and they do not pick CJ, I will personally urinate on Matt Millen's car.
Prove it! Prove it! Prove it! Pictures and videos... I dare you.

Anyway, that does make sense. IF we drafted CJ... we'd have an improving line, what should be a better running game (with KJ and Bell... wow...) and two incredible WRs. IF we draft in the top 5 next year, we could take the best QB and give him every tool to succeed (before he gets tossed around... like Joey did).

Good idea. I wouldn't be completely against that... depending on how the rest of the draft played out.
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:21 AM    (permalink
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This is a good post with a lot of interesting perspective in it. First of all, I believe that Detroit picking CJ is definitely a smokescreen, but its the best kind of smokescreen because its totally believable that they could take the best player in the draft. However, showing interest in CJ also increases the chance for a trade down, which everyone agrees is Detroits real goal. The question then, is who would be willing to trade down? Any team in the top 5 could be a possibility, but after that no one will or can afford to give fair value to move to 2.

I believe that if Detroit can't find a trade partner, they will take Quinn at 2. Marinelli wants to get a premiere defensive player in this draft, but there isn't one with #2 overall value. If they are forced to go offense I think they will take the franchise QB, which is an obvious need on this rebuilding team. Roy Williams is a legit #1 and Furrey had 98 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 TD's in his first year as a starter. To say that another WR will help Detroit win games is wishful thinking. They need a QB who will win close games as opposed to committing so many game changing turnovers. The only reason that Detroit wouldn't take a QB at 2 is because they're committed to taking a defensive player, which means that CJ is out of the mix too.

If Detroit can't trade down I think they're draft board should go Russell, Quinn, Adams/Willis. I do like Mythos' idea of taking CJ to force TB into a trade, though.
If we were offered an extra 2nd round pick from any team in the top 15, I think we should take it. Sure, it isn't "fair value", but it's better than staying put and drafting someone that's there... not someone they want. IF they can't find perfect value, getting something extra (a top 15 2nd round pick) and taking the player you really want is a great deal. And, only giving a 2nd to get a player like CJ is definately worth it.

Kitna would be a much better QB with a better OLine... don't forget that the line struggled last year. With all of the new depth, they should have a much better offense... the run game will help the passing game. I want to see Kitna behind a reasonable OLine... because I think he'll show that he can play.

That being said, I definately don't think Quinn is the pick. I think they'd even reach on Adams instead of settling for Quinn... and that's if CJ is off the board.
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:23 AM    (permalink
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Actually, this is something I just thought of, but I think it makes sense.

If you look at the great QB-WR combo's, you'll see that in most cases the receiver was drafted one or two years before the quarterback, (Manning/Harrison, Palmer/Johnson etc.) now if we were to take CJ this year, and then next year we'd take some other first round QB (don't tell me we don't need qb, we do, Kitna (35!) is a turnover machine, orlovsky i'm not sure of and McCown wants out) we'd be (once again, remember C-Rog and Harrington?) ready to have that kind of combo. With Roy Williams as our very own Reggie Wayne... I like.
Having your very own Reggie Wayne is about a hundred times easier than getting your own Peyton Manning. Detroit is in position to draft a franchise QB this year. Why not take it? With the changes you guys are making, I doubt you will be picking in the top 3 for a few years, so this will probably be your only chance at a franchise QB.

I guess there's always Trent Green, right?
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Old 03-28-2007, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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If we were offered an extra 2nd round pick from any team in the top 15, I think we should take it. Sure, it isn't "fair value", but it's better than staying put and drafting someone that's there... not someone they want. IF they can't find perfect value, getting something extra (a top 15 2nd round pick) and taking the player you really want is a great deal. And, only giving a 2nd to get a player like CJ is definately worth it.

Kitna would be a much better QB with a better OLine... don't forget that the line struggled last year. With all of the new depth, they should have a much better offense... the run game will help the passing game. I want to see Kitna behind a reasonable OLine... because I think he'll show that he can play.

That being said, I definately don't think Quinn is the pick. I think they'd even reach on Adams instead of settling for Quinn... and that's if CJ is off the board.
How quickly will Millen be fired if he trades from 2 to 15 and only gets the 47 pick in return. I understand what you mean, though. Detroit would be smart to take slightly less than fair value to move down, but we have to be realistic here.

Any QB would be better with a better OL, but we've seen about all there is to see from the 35 year old Kitna. Detroit is a franchise QB away from having a championship offense, IMO. That said, I'm right there with you on the CJ hype train and I couldn't hate on any team too much for for taking him.
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Old 03-28-2007, 09:37 AM    (permalink
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TacticaLion, you gotta stop it, man. Take a second to sit back and think about it. For every team that we're expecting to get a great trade-down out of, their fans are expecting just as much to rip the Lions off instead.

Can you not see how you're setting the Lions and yourself up for failure again? You're acting like Millen will have a dozen teams groveling at his feet to give him whatever he wants. That's draft hype nonsense. It's more like he's got a dozen wolves around his heels trying to get the #2 pick for garbage. The chances of us making even one good trade-down are still very slim.

What if we have to stay at #2? Then what? Then, no matter who they pick, even if it's an elite LT, WR or QB prospect, then you'll rant about how Millen failed again? You might not, but think of Lions fans for a second. You know many of them will pull their latest spoiled-child act about how Millen sucks and couldn't even make a simple trade down. "Of COURSE it was simple! That's what all the hype was before the draft!"

You and everyone else who is assuming straight out that Millen will be able to rob some team blind without even trying need to check yourselves.
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Old 03-28-2007, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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While I wouldn't be horribly upset if we drafted Johnson, I hope that the Lions don't.
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Old 03-28-2007, 10:34 AM    (permalink
TacticaLion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LionSmack View Post
TacticaLion, you gotta stop it, man. Take a second to sit back and think about it. For every team that we're expecting to get a great trade-down out of, their fans are expecting just as much to rip the Lions off instead.

Can you not see how you're setting the Lions and yourself up for failure again? You're acting like Millen will have a dozen teams groveling at his feet to give him whatever he wants. That's draft hype nonsense. It's more like he's got a dozen wolves around his heels trying to get the #2 pick for garbage. The chances of us making even one good trade-down are still very slim.

What if we have to stay at #2? Then what? Then, no matter who they pick, even if it's an elite LT, WR or QB prospect, then you'll rant about how Millen failed again? You might not, but think of Lions fans for a second. You know many of them will pull their latest spoiled-child act about how Millen sucks and couldn't even make a simple trade down. "Of COURSE it was simple! That's what all the hype was before the draft!"

You and everyone else who is assuming straight out that Millen will be able to rob some team blind without even trying need to check yourselves.
What!? I'm not following... but I'll try to respond.

First of all, being "ripped off" and getting a "great trade" is all in the players drafted. We've got a HUGE hole at MLB... drafting Willis would be incredible for the team. He's a hard worker, a great tackler and a true leader... he's fast and dominant. If NO ONE offered "perfect trade value" for our #2 pick... and we were stuck with either accepting the BPA or trading down for ANYTHING (reasonable)... why not trade down? If we could grab another 2nd round pick in the deal... that's incredible. Is it "perfect trade value"? No. But, imagine leaving the first round with Willis and the second round with Meriweather and Spencer or Abiamiri... that fills our holes at MLB, FS and DE (and fills them well). Or, we could stay put at #2 and draft either CJ or Quinn... entering the second round with only 1 pick and 0 defensive holes filled.

I don't know what your logic tells you, but my logic tells me that I'd rather build our defense in this years draft... with as many playmakers as possible. Some number on a chart can't take into consideration the holes on a team and the players available with those picks.
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Old 03-28-2007, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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That's all fine and good - if they want to use the #2 pick on a defensive player even though the hype says they can't, then that's one thing. What I'm saying is that you cannot assume they will get an acceptable offer to trade down. You and others seem so dead set on thinking that will be a no-brainer that you're setting the Lions up to fail in your eyes no matter what they do.
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Old 03-28-2007, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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Drafting CJ may force Roy to focus a little more on the field and not have so many drops. Realistically Roy has nothing to worry about when it comes to competition at WR. Roys mental lapses are a little worrying, and he seems soft. Outside of the Dallas game, how many times have you seen Roy try to get that extra yard. Usually he just ducks out of bounds. Adding some one like CJ may force Roy to work that much harder just to get the same number of balls thrown to him.

I dont know about the Lions this year. While Kitna had a bad oft injuried o-line, he had way to many unforced errors and demonstarted lots of bad judgments, especially in the 4th quarter. The addition of Bell and Foster are lauded as a huge coup for the Lions, but the Bronco fans seem to be glad to be rid of both of them. Bell has butterfingers and Foster is reported to be pretty inconsistent. On defense we have signed a career back up at DE and a small easily injured poor tackeling corner. Most of the Lions off season moves have been cosmetic, more change for changes sake then anything else. They could have gone after Fletcher-Baker or Mitchell(ie real difference makers) more emphatically then they did. Get ready for more of the same this year from the Lions.
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Old 03-28-2007, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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That's all fine and good - if they want to use the #2 pick on a defensive player even though the hype says they can't, then that's one thing. What I'm saying is that you cannot assume they will get an acceptable offer to trade down. You and others seem so dead set on thinking that will be a no-brainer that you're setting the Lions up to fail in your eyes no matter what they do.
Fail in my eyes no matter what they do? What? I said I'd accept CJ at #2. They've (the Lions) said they want to trade down, other teams will want to trade up, and they'll have the talent available to draw interest. I don't see the problem.

Either way, I trust Marinelli (and, through him, Millen). Even if they take Quinn at #2, the draft can still be great. I'm open to most draft outcomes, but I'd prefer some over others.
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Originally Posted by casskid
I dont know about the Lions this year. While Kitna had a bad oft injuried o-line, he had way to many unforced errors and demonstarted lots of bad judgments, especially in the 4th quarter. The addition of Bell and Foster are lauded as a huge coup for the Lions, but the Bronco fans seem to be glad to be rid of both of them. Bell has butterfingers and Foster is reported to be pretty inconsistent. On defense we have signed a career back up at DE and a small easily injured poor tackeling corner. Most of the Lions off season moves have been cosmetic, more change for changes sake then anything else. They could have gone after Fletcher-Baker or Mitchell(ie real difference makers) more emphatically then they did. Get ready for more of the same this year from the Lions.
I disagree completely... the team is definately improving. Regardless, I'm not going to sit here and try to convince you... because it wont work. I'll just let the season speak for itself.
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