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Old 02-20-2012, 03:45 PM    (permalink
RaiderNation
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Default RaiderNations: Potential Risers and Fallers Pre Combine 2/20

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Questions and comments are welcomed!

Potential Risers:

Offense:
1 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State* NFL Comparison: Athletic Joe Flacco (Ravens)

Coming into the 2012 draft Osweiler wasn’t regarded as a potential high pick, but as the combine is approaching some are saying he could rise into 1st round discussions. At a legit 6’8 240lbs, Osweiler is pretty nimble on his feet and has nice accuracy putting up 63% completion rating last year. QB’s always get over drafted, and don’t be surprised to see Osweiler maybe get drafted in the same area Joe Flacco did if he has a good combine.

2 Mike Adams OT Ohio State NFL Comparison: Jared Gaither (Ravens, Chargers)

Adams was thought of as more of a 2nd/3rd round pick before the season, but after a good Senior Bowl Adams stock could be in the top 20. Adams looks to be a potential starting LT in the NFL, maybe playing right away at either LT or RT. Adams has the experience you look for, as well as size and athleticism to maybe be a Pro Bowl type player in his prime.

3 Kendall Wright WR Baylor NFL Comparison: Mike Wallace (Steelers)

Wright along with RG3 became a superstar in College Football in 2011, and now both are poised to be early 1st round picks this April. Wright is a deep threat that can really be a factor down the field for a strong armed QB. If Wright can run a sub 4.35 40 at the combine next week, expect him to be the 2nd WR drafted behind Justin Blackmon.

4 Lamar Miller RB Miami** NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson(Titans) 2011 Verison

Miller has become a favorite of mine as of late, and I think he might have potential late 1st round stock. Miller will need a big performance at the combine, and running a sub 4.4 40 could really improve his stock. Trent Richardson is the obvious #1 RB in the draft, but after him Miller will have to fight against names like David Wilson, LaMichael James and Doug Martin.

Defense:
1 Michael Brockers DT LSU** NFL Comparison: Richard Seymour (Patriots, Raiders)

Brockers made a great decision coming out early into this weak DT class, and now might be poised to be a top 15 pick once April comes around. Brockers has great size at 6’6 310lbs, and on tape has reminded me some of a young Richard Seymour type prospect. Brockers didn’t put up great sack numbers, but was a dominant force inside on a LSU defense that was loaded with talent.

2 Zach Brown OLB UNC NFL Comparison: Navorro Bowman (49ers)

Brown is another prospect I’ve taken a liking to, and with the combine coming up I expect others to do so as well. Brown has been rumored to potentially run a 4.4 40 time, which would be excellent for a LB with his size. At 6’2, 237lbs, Brown is a very solid all around OLB that could be a top 25 pick.

3 Nick Perry DE/OLB USC* NFL Comparison: Trent Cole (Eagles)

Perry is an athletic pass rusher that NFL teams will be looking for in this pass happy league. At 6’3 250lbs, Perry has 3-4 OLB type size and I expect a team to be satisfied with his talents with a top 25 pick. Perry should have a good showing at the combine, and might be the 3rd pass rusher drafted behind Coples and Upshaw.

4 Chandler Jones DE/OLB Syracuse* NFL Comparison: Aldon Smith (49ers)

Jones is an relatively unknown prospect that could shock some people with his workouts in the coming weeks. Jones is the brother of UFC star Jon “Bones” Jones, and might end up being a rising prospect on many boards soon. Jones was hurt for some of the season in 2011, but he did produce in his limited time and could remind some of Aldon Smith from last years draft.

Potential Fallers:

Offense:
1 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M NFL Comparison: Jay Cutler (Bears, Broncos)

Tannehill has a broken foot that will keep him off the field next week at the combine, and this might hurt his stock. His interviews will be crucial for him to keep his stock in the 1st round, but with F/A’s like Matt Flynn, and now potentially Peyton Manning hitting the market Tannehill’s stock could be in trouble. Also factor in Osweiler and other QB’s could rise as well.

2 Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina* NFL Comparison: Mike Williams (Seahawks, Lions)
Jeffery’s weight and speed have been questioned after a disappointing 2011 season, and the combine will be a huge factor in where he goes come April. Jeffery didn’t have good QB play, but still needs to show the star potential scouts see in glimpses on film. If he can run in the 4.5’s and be under 235lbs, he should be a 1st round pick.

3 Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State NFL Comparison: Charles Brown (Saints)

Sanders didn’t perform well at all at the Senior Bowl, and could see a big drop in his stock if he doesn’t improve. Weight and muscle must be added for Sanders to handle the NFL pass rushers, and he might need time to bulk up before he see’s the field. If Sanders can show he can add weight and still move around at the combine, he might see his stock go up again.

Defense:
1 Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama*NFL Comparison: Jimmy Smith (Ravens)

Kirkpatrick’s arrest has hurt his stock, and now might be valued in the 14-25 range. Not producing any INT’s in 2011 also might make some question his playmaking skills, but I do still like his size and speed to match up with NFL WR’s. Dallas might be a good landing spot for Kirkpatrick if he runs well at the combine.

2 Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State*: Ray Lewis (Ravens) (Lite)

Burfict’s character and attitude on the field have scared some scouts, and right now I’m not seeing the top 15 value that was once said about him. Burfict needs to learn how to control his emotions, and if he does I can truly see him being a force at ILB in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defensive scheme.

3 Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska NFL Comparison: Kyle Wilson (Jets)

Dennard is not near the prospect Prince Amukamara was last year, and after a poor performance at the Senior Bowl I don’t see him being a 1st round pick. Dennard only has average size and speed, and was exposed by the NFL caliber WR talent at the Senior Bowl. Dennard will still be a 2nd/3rd round pick, but he won’t ever be a #1 CB in the NFL.
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Old 02-20-2012, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Good work.

Speaking of fallers, I have no idea why people rate Michael Brewster (C), OSU so highly.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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This is absolutely spot on. All of these guys will go higher or lower than they are apparently going to go.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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I don't understand why Lamar Miller gets no hype. If he's there for the Jets, I think they take him. The guy is a stud back.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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Right now the only thing Burfict can do is help his stock. He already damaged it enough this past year. he's a 3rd rounder right now.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Aaron Wilson of Scout.com is "hearing" that South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery is down to 217-220 pounds and intends to run in the 4.5s at the Combine.
The 217-220 range would be ideal for Jeffery, and running in the 4.5s could save him from the draft-day plunge projected by some after rumors surfaced that he weighed 249 and was running 4.88 as of January. "We'll see," allows Wilson. Jeffery is the most polarizing wide receiver in the 2012 draft class.
Source: Aaron Wilson on Twitter
Feb 19 - 5:15 PM
Interesting.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:55 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Interesting.
If that happens Jeffery will be a top 10 pick. No doubt.

No one could then question his work ethic or determination to be a great player and no one would be able to question his ability to to create separation. This would be ideal for Alshon.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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Wel **** everyone knew he'd get in shape for the combine. The concern I have is will he stay in shape.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by holt_bruce81 View Post
Wel **** everyone knew he'd get in shape for the combine. The concern I have is will he stay in shape.
Teams will try but probably fail lol.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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Well just because he lost weight (if true) doesn't mean he's all of the sudden going to be able to get separation...

I still think 2nd round but what helps him is that so many teams need WRs down in the 20s...
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:30 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown View Post
Good work.

Speaking of fallers, I have no idea why people rate Michael Brewster (C), OSU so highly.
I agree, his stock has been on the decline as of late especially after his Senior Bowl performance. More of a 3-5 round prospect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I don't understand why Lamar Miller gets no hype. If he's there for the Jets, I think they take him. The guy is a stud back.
Miller will get the buzz he deserves after the combine, I see a 4.3 40 coming from him and likely will be one of the fastest RB's in Indianapolis.

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Right now the only thing Burfict can do is help his stock. He already damaged it enough this past year. he's a 3rd rounder right now.
I still think he goes in the late 1st/early 2nd, 3rd would be awesome value
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Old 02-20-2012, 06:03 PM    (permalink
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Only comparison I don't like is Zach Brown to Navarro Bowman
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Old 02-20-2012, 06:03 PM    (permalink
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Miller will get the buzz he deserves after the combine, I see a 4.3 40 coming from him and likely will be one of the fastest RB's in Indianapolis.

I think Im more excited to see how he does in the cone drills
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Old 02-20-2012, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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Good work.

Speaking of fallers, I have no idea why people rate Michael Brewster (C), OSU so highly.
He was getting hyped by Ohio State fans on other boards saying things like he would be better than Nick Mangold. I kind of still like him but not in the 1st round.
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Old 02-20-2012, 10:45 PM    (permalink
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Only comparison I don't like is Zach Brown to Navarro Bowman
Couldn't find another I was comfortable with. It just shows how special of a prospect Brown could be, I like his chances of being a multiple time Pro Bowler if he lands in the right scheme.
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Old 02-21-2012, 04:07 AM    (permalink
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Only comparison I don't like is Zach Brown to Navarro Bowman
Agreed. I think a better one would be to Aaron Curry - great in a straight line - but lateral agility and ability to read/react is a question.
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Old 02-21-2012, 04:08 AM    (permalink
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He was getting hyped by Ohio State fans on other boards saying things like he would be better than Nick Mangold. I kind of still like him but not in the 1st round.
Didn't think he played as well as a senior - struggled to anchor. Does get to the second level very well though - gets square superbly. Not going to fit a team with a bunch of big 3-4 NT's in division.
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:15 AM    (permalink
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Zach Brown = Michael Boley

Agree that Brewster CAN NOT anchor and will be taken between 4-6.

not all that excited about Ben Jones either. I actually like Blake over both of those guys and Molk ONLY if I run a zone blocking ie Houston/Washington

Chandler Jones / Dontari Poe / Kendall Wright will sky rocket after their insane workouts. All top 15 picks
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Old 02-21-2012, 02:35 PM    (permalink
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I really don't see Osweiler breaking into the first. I definitely see someone liking him and picking him up in the second though. Not sure about the Flacco comp. A little too developmental at this point.

As for Wright Brockers and Adams, I doubt you will have a lot of people say they won't go high. At this point in the process, I think Wright is already going to go high. It may be hard for him to go higher, barring a Heyward Bey type reach.

I am not sure about Brown. I think he doesn't fit all schemes. If those teams see better value elsewhere, he may not go that high.

For Perry and Jones, the combine will be very important. If they show good quickness and flexibility, I definitely see them rising. Mid first for perry and maybe late first for Jones.

Depends on definition, but I don't see Kirkpatrick falling too far. Not at least out of the first. I think a 'strong lockerroom' team will definitely stop his slide.
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Old 02-21-2012, 11:58 PM    (permalink
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blech. i get the reasoning (and don't disagree with it), but zach brown is a bust in waiting. i forget the games i watched on youtube, but he was constantly out of position, constantly pushed around, failed to read/diagnose plays... it was like watching a burfict tape, without the big hits every 20-25 plays.
If he ends up in the wrong scheme I agree he can easily turn out to be a bust. He has good skills but doesn't have the football IQ yet to truely be a difference maker. As he develops he should turn into a very good player though IMO, a smaller Aaron Curry could be a decent comparison.
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I really don't see Osweiler breaking into the first. I definitely see someone liking him and picking him up in the second though. Not sure about the Flacco comp. A little too developmental at this point.
Who saw Ponder getting picked at 12? I don't see Osweiler going top 20, but he can easily go in the 21-32 range since so many teams need a QB. Flacco has had success because of the great talent he's had around him in Baltimore.

As for Wright Brockers and Adams, I doubt you will have a lot of people say they won't go high. At this point in the process, I think Wright is already going to go high. It may be hard for him to go higher, barring a Heyward Bey type reach.

I think all 3 could have top 10 potential if they really impress this week, it happens every year where a top 20 player rises into the top 10 picks. If I had to guess out of those 3 guys I'd say Brockers to Carolina at 8/9 is the most likely thing to happen.

I am not sure about Brown. I think he doesn't fit all schemes. If those teams see better value elsewhere, he may not go that high.
He can go anywhere from 21-40 at this point, I do agree though his scheme fit is vital.

For Perry and Jones, the combine will be very important. If they show good quickness and flexibility, I definitely see them rising. Mid first for perry and maybe late first for Jones.
I agree completely, some 3-4 teams will be happy adding athletic pass rushers like these 2 somewhere in the 1st.

Depends on definition, but I don't see Kirkpatrick falling too far. Not at least out of the first. I think a 'strong lockerroom' team will definitely stop his slide.
I can't see him getting past Detroit in the 1st, 14-23 is his range.
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Old 02-22-2012, 12:12 AM    (permalink
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Aaron Wilson of Scout.com is "hearing" that South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery is down to 217-220 pounds and intends to run in the 4.5s at the Combine.
The 217-220 range would be ideal for Jeffery, and running in the 4.5s could save him from the draft-day plunge projected by some after rumors surfaced that he weighed 249 and was running 4.88 as of January. "We'll see," allows Wilson. Jeffery is the most polarizing wide receiver in the 2012 draft class.
Source: Aaron Wilson on Twitter
Feb 19 - 5:15 PM
250 pounds!! What a fatass, I knew there were rumors about him been out of shape and all, but my God, all you have to do is stay in shape and use the talent you were born with and you'll get paid MILLIONS of dollars. Is it really that hard?

And also, as others have pointed out, it's not a question about "can he get in shape?", we know he can the real question is "will he after getting paid?". Remember Albert Haynesworth being the most dominant force in the NFL the year prior to being a free agent? He gets his 100 mill and totally dissapears. That's the problem with this guys that show poor work ethic, you can't count on them.

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Old 02-22-2012, 01:01 AM    (permalink
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250 pounds!! What a fatass, I knew there were rumors about him been out of shape and all, but my God, all you have to do is stay in shape and use the talent you were born with and you'll get paid MILLIONS of dollars. Is it really that hard?
He wasn't 250 pounds, it was just last week that it was reported he was 250 now he is down to 220. You can't lose 30 pounds in a week or two.
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Old 02-22-2012, 01:49 AM    (permalink
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Please Visit My NFL & NBA Draft Blog:
www.bloggingthedraft.com

Questions and comments are welcomed!

Potential Risers:

Offense:
1 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State* NFL Comparison: Athletic Joe Flacco (Ravens)

Coming into the 2012 draft Osweiler wasnít regarded as a potential high pick, but as the combine is approaching some are saying he could rise into 1st round discussions. At a legit 6í8 240lbs, Osweiler is pretty nimble on his feet and has nice accuracy putting up 63% completion rating last year. QBís always get over drafted, and donít be surprised to see Osweiler maybe get drafted in the same area Joe Flacco did if he has a good combine.
Using Osweiler's completion percentage to speak to his accuracy seems specious to me. Watching his throws versus BSU in his bowl game, Osweiler rarely threw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. Half of his completions came on swings, flats and curls that were within 5 yards of the LOS and often behind it. He rarely made more than one read and often threw into coverage, avoiding 2-3 more interceptions purely by luck.

Now I know it's just one game against a good opponent and doesn't represent his overall body of work. However, if that gameplan was emblematic of the offense he ran during the 2011 season, he has a long way to go before he'll be mentally prepared for the NFL.
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Old 02-22-2012, 03:09 AM    (permalink
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Have to agree that Osweiler's completion% does not reflect his accuracy. He's still somewhat raw as a passer.

Chandler Jones is the name I think I might be going with this week.
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Old 02-22-2012, 05:24 AM    (permalink
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Didn't think he played as well as a senior - struggled to anchor. Does get to the second level very well though - gets square superbly. Not going to fit a team with a bunch of big 3-4 NT's in division.
This about sums it up. Guy definitely needs to put on some weight if he wants to anchor against some of the bigger linemen in this league.

However, he is still quite sound technically and makes great protection calls. Probably still the #2 C in this draft in my mind.

Also I had read somewhere else that Zach Brown might be running a sub 4.4. forty which would just boost his stock exponentially in my mind.

I like the Bowman comparison just because I would really love to see the Ravens pick him up and move him inside next to Ray
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