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Old 02-24-2012, 11:03 AM    (permalink
Jimmy
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Default Opinion: Tampa Will 90% Trade Their Pick

The following long winded post is based under 5 reasonable assumptions:

1. Luck goes #1 to Indy

2. Tampa Bay does not want to take Blackmon at #5


3. Robert Griffin isn't available under any circumstances at #6

4. If Trent Richardson falls to #4 at Cleveland and Griffin does not, they will select Richardson


5. Minnesota values Mo Claiborne over Matt Kalil at #3, and would consider trading down to get Mo cheaper, if possible. Both are the #1 prospect at their positions

Fair warning that if you disagree with any of these you won't agree with this post.

To me, it is a 90% lock that Tampa trades up to #2 for Trent Richardson or trades down to any spot



Edit: You may not think they will trade up for a RB, but that means they will almost certainly trade down. Keep reading dammit, stop rebutting my point after reading this much. It will make more sense if you keep reading.

I know that's bold, but hear me out. I put 2 hours of thought into this.

First, we have to look at the #3 pick, because understanding the team that is picking here is vital to understanding why TB will be the team to trade up or down, despite having Blount.

#3 Minnesota- is not a threat to trade up to #2 WHATSOEVER. Content with Claiborne at #3. If they were to trade up, it'd be for Kalil, and St. Louis isn't ok with that. They wouldn't trade up for Claiborne, no team would ever leapfrog them for a CB at #2. And frankly, they don't care if STL takes Kalil, and they surely arent taking Claiborne.

If Minny trades down down, it would be to take Claiborne at #4 or 5 or 6. No matter what, this pick is Claiborne at this point. They are set with QB and RB. If they were to trade, then they would make sure that Claiborne was going to be at the lower spot. And they can't do this unless unless they trade back 2-3 spots, under the strict condition that the draft has started and that somebody traded ahead of them to take somebody else.

So Minnesota is out of the equation, we can pretend like the pick isn’t even there.

There is an ongoing threat that Washington trades up to #2, leapfrogging Minnesota and Cleveland to take Griffin. They do this not because Minnesota will take Griffin, but because Cleveland may at #4. They know with certainty that Griffin will not fall to #6, some team other than Cleveland will make a play to get him if Cleveland does not select him at #4. Too many scenarios for that, but it is fair to assume with 90% certainty that Griffin, who would be the #1 QB prospect if not for the best QB prospect in decades, will not be available at #6.

If Washington leapfrogs to #2, Minnesota CANNOT trade the #3 for the #5 pick to Tampa. This is because Griffin is off the board, and if Tampa swapped their #5 pick to Minny to select Richardson, (leapfrogging Cleveland) Cleveland would take Claiborne at #4. Minnesota would be stuck without Claiborne.

Therefore, if Washington trades to #2, Cleveland is guaranteed Richardson, effectively snubbing Tampa Bay out of a running back.

But Cleveland knows that Tampa bay wouldn’t be happy with this scenario, and would do anything they could to prevent it. So Tampa bay would jump to #2 and take matters in their own hands, preventing Washington from ever getting the #2. (Because, as I explained, Washington to #2 means no Richardson for Tampa Bay.)

If Tampa Bay trades up to #2 for Richardson, then Minnesota is still content with #3. Cleveland can get their man Griffin and knows that nobody can leapfrog them, because that would be a suicide move for Minnesota (as I explained, any team swapping with Minnesota would be taking Griffin from Cleveland. Cleveland would then take BPA in Claiborne, and Minny wouldn’t allow that.)

We have established that Cleveland does not care if Washington trades up for griffin at#2, because Minnesota would never budge because Claiborne would go next to cleveland. And if St. Louis doesn’t trade the pick at all at #2, Cleveland still gets Richardson or Griffin.

So, this means that the only realistic player for the #2 pick is Washington or Tampa. Any other teams trading up are extremely rare, as St. Louis doesn't want to loose Kalil. Tampa knows that a Washington trade to #2 takes Griffin (To Washington 100%) Claiborne (To Minny, 100%), Richardson (to Cleveland 100%), will mess them up and they will do anything in their power to trade up to #2 to take Richardson or move out. If they do not, they get NOBODY.

Washington on the other hand, is okay with not trading up, because they can still get somebody by NOT trading up. Even with ANY TEAM in the league leapfroggin up for BOTH Richardson and Griffin, Claiborne would go in the 3-5 range to Minny, at the very least. This gives Washington another guy they covet, Blackmon. They are OK with this and don’t make a trade because they aren’t desperate, like Tampa.

Tampa bay has the most to lose if they do not trade up or down.

ANY move from ANY team to #2 is to take Richardson or Griffin. This seals the fates of Claiborne and what is left of Griffin or Richardson at 4 and 5.

Tampa will trade up to #2 or move down from #5 with quite a bit of certainty. If they feel that it is not worth it to take Richardson, they by default must trade down, because there isn't a ton of value for them at #5 with Blackmon. Any number of teams might want to trade up to this pick for a variety of players.

Last edited by Jimmy : 02-24-2012 at 01:06 PM.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:16 AM    (permalink
Jimmy
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Originally Posted by Bob Sanders Dreadlock View Post
Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.
That's the thing: If they don't trade up, they must by default trade down, because there is no value at 5, assuming they don't like Blackmon, like half this board.

All of this under one of my key 4 assumptions, at the beginning of my post.

Last edited by Jimmy : 02-24-2012 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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So basically if:

IND - Luck
WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
CLE - Richardson

Then the Bucs would be screwed out of the two guys taht make most sense at 5 (Mo and TR).

I get that but I think they'd happily take Blackmon, LMW and Arrelious Benn aren't exactly models of consistency. Kirkpatrick could potentially be a good pick there too. But I get why you think in that scenario, they'd trade down...

What you are missing, however is this extremely important point: THE VIKINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE KALIL (OR MAYBE EVEN REIFF) IF HE'S THERE AT 3 THAN CLAIBORNE! And that the Browns (or Vikes) could possibly take Blackmon there...

Also, you're hypothesis is predicated on WASHINGTON moving up for RG3. If Cleveland moves up (which is probably more likely at the moment), the Bucs WILL get one of Claiborne or TR.

IND - Luck
CLE - RG3
MIN - Claiborne or OT or Blackmon
STL - TR, Claiborne, or OT or Blackmon

OK, I get what you're saying actually. In this scenario, there is a chance that the Bucs are assed out again. BUT, in this scenario, there are TWO teams that could conceivably take an OT instead of TR/Mo so...

my rebuttal - it's more likely that an OT OR Blackmon will go top 4 than that TR AND Claiborne will go top 4...

Also, teams don't usually take CBs in the top 4 (especially with GREAT LT prospects there when they need LT), because great CBs can be neutralized easily by offenses simply not throwing on them.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
So basically if:

IND - Luck
WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
CLE - Richardson

Then the Bucs would be screwed out of the two guys taht make most sense at 5 (Mo and TR).
I don't think that Mo is there. why? I'll explain later.

Quote:

I get that but I think they'd happily take Blackmon, LMW and Arrelious Benn aren't exactly models of consistency. Kirkpatrick could potentially be a good pick there too. But I get why you think in that scenario, they'd trade down...
I think Kirkpatrick is much much lower on many people's boards. Like mid/late first.
like i said, if you don' t agree with the blackmon thing, then my post is moot. no further talking needed.

Quote:
What you are missing, however is this extremely important point: THE VIKINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE KALIL (OR MAYBE EVEN REIFF) IF HE'S THERE AT 3 THAN CLAIBORNE! And that the Browns (or Vikes) could possibly take Blackmon there...
But that's STL's guy. STL would never trade from #2 past #5 if they suspected that the vikes would take Kalil, effectively sealing a non trade at #2. They won't want reiff. And even if washington moved up to #2 for RG3, minny would take Kalil according to you. STL does not pass up Kalil for Reiff, who most scouts like Mayock say is only that high because of his position. Reiff is more of a 9-15 guy.
Quote:
Also, you're hypothesis is predicated on WASHINGTON moving up for RG3. If Cleveland moves up (which is probably more likely at the moment), the Bucs WILL get one of Claiborne or TR.
well if Cleveland moves up to take RG3, but your logic, minny will take kalil. so why would St Louis once again damage their chances of getting their main guy? They certainly wouldn't take reiff at #4. They aren't taking Richardson. Then who?

Quote:
my rebuttal - it's more likely that an OT OR Blackmon will go top 4 than that TR AND Claiborne will go top 4...
I agree that an OT goes top 5, kalil, but the original condition of my post was that you had to agree that blackmon would be at #6, and that washington would happily take him, but that at #5 tampa wouldn't.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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I agree that an OT goes top 5, kalil, but the original condition of my post was that you had to agree that blackmon would be at #6, and that washington would happily take him, but that at #5 tampa wouldn't.
If Kalil goes top 4, then how the hell do both Mo and TR go top 4 as well? This is what I don't see.

Luck
RG3
Kalil
TR/Mo
TR/Mo

The teams don't matter...

Again, if you assume that RG3 and Kalil go top 5, the Bucs will get one of TR or Mo. Map out your TB nightmare scenario so that it's easier to follow...

Last edited by gpngc : 02-24-2012 at 11:46 AM.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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well if Cleveland moves up to take RG3, but your logic, minny will take kalil. so why would St Louis once again damage their chances of getting their main guy? They certainly wouldn't take reiff at #4. They aren't taking Richardson. Then who?

They'd take Richardson or Claiborne at 4. And the other would fall to 5... I don't get what you're missing. And if they take Blackmon, BOTH Mo and TR will be there at 5...
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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If Kalil goes top 4, then how the hell do both Mo and TR go top 4 as well? This is what I don't see.

Luck
RG3
Kalil
TR/Mo
TR/Mo

The teams don't matter...

Again, if you assume that RG3 and Kalil go top 5, the Bucs will get one of TR or Mo. Map out your TB nightmare scenario so that it's easier to follow...
I'll add a 5th condition. minny likes mo over kalil. should have included thät. not too weird an assumption. never said in my original verbose post that kalil was a lock top the top 5.
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Old 02-24-2012, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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Here's the most likely scenario as of now IMO

1. Indy take Luck

2. Washington trades up with St Louis and takes RG3

3. Minnesota run to the podium to take Kalil

4. Cleveland take their pick of Richardson, Blackmon, Wright or a darkhorse like Reiff or Adams

5. Tampa Bay take Richardson or Claiborne


I don't see the market being too rich for either Richardson or Claiborne at 5 and the strength of this draft is WR so I don't see anyone making a move up to 5 just because TB want to move down.

St Louis would probably take whoever is left of Blackmon, Wright, Richardson or Claiborne, the OTs, or go for someone like Still or Brockers.

Miami and Carolina could both use a stud CB but I don't see either moving up for Claiborne.

Jacksonville have too many holes to move up when they should get a real good player at 7.

Outside the top 10 you're asking way too much for someone to move up to 5.

Tampa Bay would probably love to move down but I just don't see the market for it
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Old 02-24-2012, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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Can't agree to the condition that the Vikings would take Claiborne over Kalil, and I don't buy RB being that high a priority for anyone.
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Old 02-24-2012, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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Can't agree to the condition that the Vikings would take Claiborne over Kalil, and I don't buy RB being that high a priority for anyone.
that's ok. agree to disagree. let's just assume they like MO. both prospects are #1 at their positions and if Tampa has no Mo or TR at #5, what t
do they do?
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Old 02-24-2012, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...
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Old 02-24-2012, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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that's ok. agree to disagree. let's just assume they like MO. both prospects are #1 at their positions and if Tampa has no Mo or TR at #5, what t
do they do?
They definitely want to trade down there; I just don't know that it's that easy. Coples or Kalil I guess.
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Old 02-24-2012, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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Sorry, I stopped reading when someone called Blount a fringe top 10 back.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...
It seems really strange to all us draft experts, but conceptually it's not that odd. It'd be prospects 1, 3, 4, 5, 2 (according to scott) 1,3,4,6,2 (according to kiper)

Having the prospects go 1 luck, 3 griffin, 4 claiborne, 5 richardson, 2 kalil would be one of the normal drafts in history.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:01 PM    (permalink
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The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...
It seems really strange to all us draft experts, but conceptually it's not that odd. It'd be prospects 1, 3, 4, 5, 2 (according to scott) 1,3,4,6,2 (according to kiper)

Having the prospects go 1 luck, 3 griffin, 4 claiborne, 5 richardson, 2 kalil would be one of the normal drafts in history.

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Old 02-24-2012, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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4. If Trent Richardson falls to #4 at Cleveland and Griffin does not, they will select Richardson
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5. Minnesota values Mo Claiborne over Matt Kalil at #3, and would consider trading down to get Mo cheaper, if possible. Both are the #1 prospect at their positions
Big assumptions to make.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Big assumptions to make.
1. Well Luck is set at #1 (95% done)

2. The rams trade the pick to someone who takes Griffin, or they don't trade and they take Kalil or Claiborne. Filling bigger needs than RB, where they have Steven Jackson. (50 probability of happening)

3. The Vikes have AP. Not going trent. (90%)

The Browns would go Richardson if Griffin is taken... wouldn't they?

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Old 02-24-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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How exactly is TB screwed if Kalil falls right into their laps?
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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[u]

Big assumptions to make.
I can agree that #5 is a stretch, but I don't think it's odd. Like I said, both guys are on virtually everyone's top 5 boards.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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How exactly is TB screwed if Kalil falls right into their laps?
I believe they are set at tackle. I also believe they also have a couple colossal needs to fill other than tackle. Pretty big deals, when you're going to owe the guy you pick a huge sum of money right away.

They'd be better off trading down and getting a kingdom of picks for someone who would pay a mint for Kalil, and who desperately needs him.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.
Blount isn't exactly a scrub, but he is not good. He doesn't block well or catch the ball out of the backfield well so he really shouldn't be on the field on third downs. He is fat and slow. By no means is he a fringe top-ten back. At the very best, you could rank him 15th, but that is if you say he is better than guys like Ben Tate, Darren Sproles, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stweart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, and others. To me, I'm not even sure I would call Blount a fringe top-twenty back.

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I believe they are set at tackle. I also believe they also have a couple colossal needs to fill other than tackle. Pretty big deals, when you're going to owe the guy you pick a huge sum of money right away.

They'd be better off trading down and getting a kingdom of picks for someone who would pay a mint for Kalil, and who desperately needs him.
They aren't set at tackle. Jeremy Trueblood stinks and Donald Penn is average. He is a much better run blocker than pass blocker, so you could move him to the right side, plug Kalil in at Left tackle and you improve two spots with one pick.

But I don't think they should trade up. They pick at number five. Luck and Griffin will be drafted in the top-four. That means Richardson, Caliborne, or Kalil will drop to them. Anyone of them would be a great option for them.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 

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Old 02-24-2012, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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I would put Trueblood up against any team's starting Tackle in a 'worst OT in the league' contest and be confident as **** in a win.

Kalil's contract will probably be well below market value for good starting tackle at #5 under the draft slotting system.

Penn is solid but he is no reason not to improve two positions at once by moving over to the other side and Kalil working the left edge.
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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1. Well Luck is set at #1 (95% done)

2. The rams trade the pick to someone who takes Griffin, or they don't trade and they take Kalil or Claiborne. Filling bigger needs than RB, where they have Steven Jackson. (50 probability of happening)

3. The Vikes have AP. Not going trent. (90%)

The Browns would go Richardson if Griffin is taken... wouldn't they?
The Vikings almost certainly take Kalil. Higher positional value and a bigger area of need.

The Browns may or may not take Richardson. They need WR help more than RB help. There are also the same trade down scenarios for the Browns as there would potentially be for the Bucs
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Old 02-24-2012, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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One of Claiborne, Richardson, or Kalil will fall right into Tampa's greedy paws. Win.
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