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Old 02-27-2012, 06:09 PM    (permalink
Babylon
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Anywhere to see Kuechly's 40 runs?
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbuc View Post
How can you say that when he tested as good or better than both of them? Also everyone said the same thing about Kuechly that he's great with his eyes, knows what the play is before the team runs it...
Because testing is everything...

Kuechly is an instinctive player, but he's nothing amazing. If an inside linebacker is going top 10, he better be special.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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Because testing is everything...

Kuechly is an instinctive player, but he's nothing amazing. If an inside linebacker is going top 10, he better be special.
Or Rolando McClain.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage View Post
In the last dozen drafts, only three non-pass rushing linebackers have been taken in the top 6: Aaron Curry, A.J. Hawk, LaVar Arrington. None of them were particularly great picks.

Kuechly is not a once-in-a-decade kind of prospect; even Urlacher lasted to pick #9, Patrick Willis lasted to pick #11, and Ray Lewis lasted to pick #26.

It's not like the old salary system (or lack thereof) made people less likely to take non-pass-rushing LBs high, since those guys are generally perceived to be "safe" picks and the problem with the old salary scale was the financial risk involved in taking a player high who has a good chance to be a bust.
Rolando McClain went 8th overall 2 years ago, he is more or less the prototypical type MLB. Granted it was the Raiders that drafted him that high. Keuchly has about the same measurables, has no character issues and was a better college player. If he did go top 10 I would not see it as a big deal but some team would have to be in love with him to do so. Like others have said the value for his position does not usually warrant top 10 draft status.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by A Perfect Score View Post
Well Ray Lewis wasn't drafted until Pick 26, so I don't think it's fair to lump him in with Urlacher or Willis, both of whom went Top 11. Willis ran a 4.37, which is absolutely astronomical all things considered. I think if he had of ran a 4.6, you would have seen him fall into the 15-20 range Kuechly is predicted for.
So what if Keuchly runs 4.4s at his pro day? Those times are almost always faster, and he was unofficially 4.50 at the combine, iirc. But people knew Willis was really fast already, so his time was more a confirmation of that than something which raised his stock. I remember a lot of people being super high on Willis before he ever had any official numbers. Most places I was looking before the draft this year seemed to have Kuechly as a 4.6 guy, and timing faster than expected I think affects stock a little more dramatically than running slow. A guy runs average, a coach just takes it as it is. He runs faster than you expect, you start looking at him more in terms of potential in addition to whatever body of work he's already produced.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Man I can't believe how much I loved Rolando McClain coming out. Thank you for drafting Eric Berry instead Pioli!
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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The decline of the run offense makes taking a ILB in the top 10 pretty tough, however this guy will definitely now be a real threat to go that high after he demonstrated in his 40 that he is a 3 down player. Looks like the second coming of Urlacher. I never dreamed he could run that fast.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:58 PM    (permalink
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The decline of the run offense makes taking a ILB in the top 10 pretty tough, however this guy will definitely now be a real threat to go that high after he demonstrated in his 40 that he is a 3 down player. Looks like the second coming of Urlacher. I never dreamed he could run that fast.
Not sure he has the ability to be the size of an Urlacher but that speed shocked the #### out of me. It probably answered the only real question, can he cover TEs that can run.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:03 PM    (permalink
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Not sure he has the ability to be the size of an Urlacher but that speed shocked the #### out of me. It probably answered the only real question, can he cover TEs that can run.
While his speed definitely shocked me, his overall performance in the rest of the Combine events was way above my expectations as well. He is obviously a superb athlete.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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Positional value is right, a great MLB is almost a luxury. I'm a believer that if you have a great D-Line then most LB's can look pretty good. I mean the Giants LB corps was below average by most standards. Ray Lewis had some struggling years when his D-Line wasn't as good.

But with all that said, since about half of the guys in the top 10 probably won't work out. I would draft this guy in a heartbeat in the 7-10 range because I feel like theres no way he won't be a great player, even if its not at a premium position.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:32 PM    (permalink
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His 38 inch vert is more impressive to me than his 40 times, which were still faster than I expected.

People looked at Kuechly's insane tackle numbers and assumed they were solely a result of just his instincts and never factored in that maybe the dude can RUN.

Giants/Bears/Eagles/Ravens need this kid.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:32 PM    (permalink
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Positional value is right, a great MLB is almost a luxury.
I agree with this 100%.
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Old 02-27-2012, 09:20 PM    (permalink
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I don't really get why MLB is valued so lowly around the league. A quick look at the top defenses and you can see a decent trend of good to elite MLB play...

The top defenses last year were Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, San Fran and New York, all 5 of those teams have some of the top MLBs in the league.

Obviously it isn't everything but the Ravens have basically been the best defense of the past decade and they've had a real constant in the middle.

I'm not saying Kuechly is a Ray Lewis level talent but if a team thinks he can be, they absolutely should take him top 10.

My thoughts on OG's should be well known, I think in the modern game they are as important, if not more so, than tackles. I'd absolutely take DeCastro top 10 especially with the scaled contracts.
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:01 PM    (permalink
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I think with scaled contracts anyone can be drafted anywhere now a days.
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:16 PM    (permalink
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I think with scaled contracts anyone can be drafted anywhere now a days.
I think actually the rookie salary system encourages teams to take risks rather than settle for safe players.

I mean, in the old way if you take a player and he sucks, not only are you out the draft picks you are also out something like $40m against the cap. Nowadays, if you take a player and he sucks, you're out the pick and only about $20m against the cap.

So if you have the option of taking a safe pick, or a guy who has a 50% chance of being twice as good as the safe pick and a 50% chance of being terrible, then it's comparatively safer to take the risky pick now that you're not guaranteeing him so much money.

In 2008, Vernon Gholston was selected sixth overall and given a 5 year contract worth $50m with $21m guaranteed. In 2011 the player selected 6th (Julio Jones) received a fully guaranteed four year $16.183m. So if in 2012 you had a choice between a risky pick with huge ceiling (like Gholston was) or a safe pick with a low ceiling (like Kuechly is) why wouldn't you take the guy with more upside, knowing that the penalty for being wrong is so low.

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Old 02-27-2012, 10:31 PM    (permalink
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How can you say that when he tested as good or better than both of them? Also everyone said the same thing about Kuechly that he's great with his eyes, knows what the play is before the team runs it...
So wait, the Combine is the sole determinant of how good a player will be and where he's drafted?

Thanks Big *** Al, I guess rumors of your demise yada yada yada
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:53 PM    (permalink
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I think actually the rookie salary system encourages teams to take risks rather than settle for safe players.
Yeah, I agree. Risk isn't as risky as it used to be, and I'd much rather gamble a bit more now than back in the day because it doesn't cost as much.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:24 PM    (permalink
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You have to consider the opportunity cost. If you think Kuechly is the next Urlacher, and you gamble on someone else with a 50% bust chance, you are losing the opportunity to acquire the next Urlacher, and might not have another opportunity like that again. Obviously this works in the reverse as well.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:29 PM    (permalink
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How many LBs that are top 10 picks but not pass rushers work out? I don't remember any recently.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:41 PM    (permalink
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How many LBs that are top 10 picks but not pass rushers work out? I don't remember any recently.
Last 11 years, top 10 LBs who weren't pass rushers:

2011: none
2010: Rolando McClain (too early to tell, but not a superstar).
2009: Aaron Curry (terrible pick, no longer with team)
2008: Keith Rivers (poor pick, average player), Jerod Mayo (decent pick, good player, but limited impact)
2007: none
2006: A.J. Hawk (poor pick, average player), Ernie Sims (terrible pick, no longer with team)
2005: None
2004: None
2003: None
2002: None
2001: None
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Old 02-28-2012, 01:12 AM    (permalink
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Jerod Mayo (decent pick, good player, but limited impact)
Please explain how he's only had a limited impact.
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Old 02-28-2012, 01:14 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by whatadai View Post
Please explain how he's only had a limited impact.
He's a tackle machine, but doesn't cause fumbles or get interceptions.
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Old 02-28-2012, 01:53 AM    (permalink
whatadai
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He's a tackle machine, but doesn't cause fumbles or get interceptions.
2010 wasn't so bad in my opinion...and 2011 could have been similar if he wasn't moved and he wasn't injured. But I see why he's not worth a top 10 pick. I think that's the problem though...people think a top 10 pick should make big plays a lot, but a top 10 pick could be valuable if he plugs a huge hole...one that kept a team from the playoffs.
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Old 02-28-2012, 02:02 AM    (permalink
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2010 wasn't so bad in my opinion...and 2011 could have been similar if he wasn't moved and he wasn't injured. But I see why he's not worth a top 10 pick. I think that's the problem though...people think a top 10 pick should make big plays a lot, but a top 10 pick could be valuable if he plugs a huge hole...one that kept a team from the playoffs.

I don't think teams that are picking top ten are one player away from the playoffs.
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Old 02-28-2012, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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Kuechly has short arms and plays like it - tends to peel back off blocks - makes a ton of tackles 5+ yard downfield. I didn't think he would run slow as he has a nice burst to the ball. Only take him high if you have a good (and big) defensive line to keep him clean - otherwise avoid early.
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