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Old 03-01-2012, 04:55 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Default March 1st Top-100 Big Board

There is still a lot of homework to be done, but here's how I'm feeling today for the top-100 prospects. A lot of players moving around.

March 1st Top-100 Big Board

1E

1. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford*

2. QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor*

3. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama*

4. OG David DeCastro, Stanford*

5. CB Morris Claiborne, Louisiana St.*

6. CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

7. WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St.*

8. OT Matt Kalil, Southern California*

1E/M

9. OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford*

10. LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College*

11. OG Cordy Glenn, Georgia

12. DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina

13. DT Alameda Ta'amu, Washington

14. DE Nick Perry, Southern California*

15. CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama*

16. FS Mark Barron, Alabama

1M/L

17. QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

18. LB Zach Brown, North Carolina

19. DT Dontari Poe, Memphis*

20. TE Orson Charles, Georgia*

21. C Peter Konz, Wisconsin*

22. CB Brandon Boykin, Georgia

23. DT Michael Brockers, Louisiana St.**

24. DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

25. DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi St.*

26. LB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

27. WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

1L/2E

28. QB Nick Foles, Arizona

29. RB Lamar Miller, Miami (FL)**

30. WR Kendall Wright, Baylor

31. SS Harrison Smith, Notre Dame

32. CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina*

33. DT Devon Still, Penn St.

34. OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin

35. DE Andre Branch, Clemson

36. DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan St.*

37. OT Riley Reiff, Iowa*

38. WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech*

39. DT Kendall Reyes, Connecticut

2E/M

40. CB Trumaine Johnson, Montana

41. LB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama*

42. TE Dwayne Allen, Clemson*

43. TE Coby Fleener, Stanford

44. RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech*

45. WR Rueben Randle, Louisiana St.*

46. DE Cam Johnson, Virginia

47. WR Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers*

48. DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois*

49. CB Chase Minnifield, Virginia

50. RB Doug Martin, Boise St.

51. RB LaMichael James, Oregon*

52. OT Mike Adams, Ohio St.

2M/L

53. WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma

54. DT Josh Chapman, Alabama

55. DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse*

56. WR Jarius Wright, Arkansas

57. CB Casey Hayward, Vanderbilt

58. DE Jared Crick, Nebraska

59. LB Lavonte David, Nebraska

60. OT Kelechi Osemele, Iowa St.

61. OG Amini Silatolu, Midwestern St.

2L/3E

62. FS George Iloka, Boise St.

63. CB Josh Robinson, Central Florida*

64. LB Mychal Kendricks, California

65. DT Marcus Forston, Miami (FL)*

66. DE Shea McClellin, Boise St.

67. WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M

68. CB Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska

69. DT Brandon Thompson, Clemson

70. OG Brandon Brooks, Miami (OH)

71. WR DeVier Posey, Ohio St.

72. WR T.Y. Hilton, Florida International

73. TE Michael Egnew, Missouri

3E/M

74. WR LaVon Brazill, Ohio

75. FS Markelle Martin, Oklahoma St.

76. QB Kirk Cousins, Michigan St.

77. QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma St.

78. QB Brock Osweiler, Arizona St.*

79. DT DaJohn Harris, Southern California

80. OT Andrew Datko, Florida St.

81. OT Nate Potter, Boise St.

3M/L

82. WR Juron Criner, Arizona

83. DT Mike Martin, Michigan

84. CB Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech*

85. DE Vinny Curry, Marshall

86. LB Keenan Robinson, Texas

87. DT Billy Winn, Boise St.

88. WR Devon Wylie, Fresno St.

89. TE Ladarius Green, Louisiana-Lafayette

90. WR Tommy Streeter, Miami (FL)*

91. WR Brian Quick, Appalachian St.

3L/4E

92. CB Donnie Fletcher, Boston College

93. C Ben Jones, Georgia

94. WR Nick Toon, Wisconsin

95. LB Bobby Wagner, Utah St.

96. CB Shaun Prater, Iowa

97. RB Robert Turbin, Utah St.*

98. CB Jamell Fleming, Oklahoma

99. DE Jonathan Massaquoi, Troy*

100. OT Matt Reynolds, Brigham Young

OFF

RB Chris Polk, Washington

WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina*

WR Dwight Jones, North Carolina

DE Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma*

LB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona St.*
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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Obviously you put a lot of time and effort into this, and I'm not going to nitpick. But moving Alshon Jeffrey off the board totally is a mistake, in my opinion.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:04 PM    (permalink
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Jonathan Massaquoi is going to be the best pass rusher from this draft. Wait and see!
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:09 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steelersrock151 View Post
Obviously you put a lot of time and effort into this, and I'm not going to nitpick. But moving Alshon Jeffrey off the board totally is a mistake, in my opinion.
In terms of talent I would certainly agree, and I am very interested to see how his career turns out, but I wouldn't want to be the team to take a chance on him, which is why he wasn't included. Very intriguing prospect for another team, but I just can't recommend him.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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Janoris Jenkins Top 10 and Alameda Ta'amu ahead of Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox is just ridiculous. Jenkins is talented, not top 10 though. His ceiling at the next level is Pacman Jones, which means he can be one helluva player, but he will never be the cream of the crop, which if you're a cornerback, you better be shutdown to go Top 10.

Poe and Cox just got done proven their insane athletic ability, and people still doubt them? I know Poe's tape is average at times, but the guy was the lone force on a terrible difference. I was a little shocked Poe's numbers were THAT freakish, but I wasn't surprised that they were great. The guy flashes Haloti Ngata movement skills (as in, guys 340+ plus who are built like tanks but can still move their feet through the garbage). Poe was flirting with Top 10 before the Combine. Now he locked it up.

And Fletcher Cox is so criminally underrated. Has been for a long time. Cox has very similar abilities to Tommie Harris, who was a great player for a while.

Jayron Hosley and Bobby Wagner both belong in the early 2nd as well. I also don't get why Mike Martin STILL gets no love. The guy is a complete animal on tape. The attempted rip was that he was an average athlete. 4.88 at 306 with 36 reps? That's awesome numbers. The guy is Kyle Williams 2.0, except an even better athlete.

And Mike Adams outside the 1st Round is a joke. Guy belongs Top 15 at worst.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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I know he didn't run well but Sanu is still a top 100 prospect in this draft. Very shocked you left him out.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:18 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
Janoris Jenkins Top 10 and Alameda Ta'amu ahead of Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox is just ridiculous. Jenkins is talented, not top 10 though. His ceiling at the next level is Pacman Jones, which means he can be one helluva player, but he will never be the cream of the crop, which if you're a cornerback, you better be shutdown to go Top 10.
Jenkins is sublime in man coverage and can handle zone responsibilities and run support as well, which is why I have him there. He really brings it against elite competition and I feel good about his character.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
Poe and Cox just got done proven their insane athletic ability, and people still doubt them? I know Poe's tape is average at times, but the guy was the lone force on a terrible difference. I was a little shocked Poe's numbers were THAT freakish, but I wasn't surprised that they were great. The guy flashes Haloti Ngata movement skills (as in, guys 340+ plus who are built like tanks but can still move their feet through the garbage). Poe was flirting with Top 10 before the Combine. Now he locked it up.
I don't doubt their "insane athletic ability", I'm just not sure they're going to end up being as productive as Ta'amu. I'd play it safe and grab the athletic 340 pounder from Washington over Poe, who could be an All-Pro but failed to dominate marginal competition in college. I'm not going to argue that Poe is a potential top-10 pick, but these rankings aren't based around where players are going to be selected.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
And Fletcher Cox is so criminally underrated. Has been for a long time. Cox has very similar abilities to Tommie Harris, who was a great player for a while.
I'm concerned that Cox may be a 4-3 under tackle who can only play in a limited number of 3-4 schemes. His athletic ability and strength are very appealing, but mentally I'm just not sure he can process a lot of information and he has a lot of work to do in regards to anchoring and taking on double teams; Cox is not a two-gap player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
Jayron Hosley and Bobby Wagner both belong in the early 2nd as well. I also don't get why Mike Martin STILL gets no love. The guy is a complete animal on tape. The attempted rip was that he was an average athlete. 4.88 at 306 with 36 reps? That's awesome numbers. The guy is Kyle Williams 2.0, except an even better athlete.
Hosley just may not have the size to match up against some of the NFL's top wide receivers, and I'm not sure how well he translates to the slot. He will receive a lot of interest from zone coverage teams. Bobby Wagner should end up being a productive player but is scheme-limited as well and does not play a very valuable position. I like Martin as a 4-3 under tackle but he doesn't project to a 3-4 defense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
And Mike Adams outside the 1st Round is a joke. Guy belongs Top 15 at worst.
It's difficult to get a feel for Adams' character, but I tend to lean towards suspicion when it comes to him. I would not be pounding on the table in order to get Adams drafted.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:21 PM    (permalink
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I know he didn't run well but Sanu is still a top 100 prospect in this draft. Very shocked you left him out.
Forgot all about Sanu, he's on there now! Take a look.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:28 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Forgot all about Sanu, he's on there now! Take a look.
Ok that makes a lot more sense. That's a good ranking after what we just saw.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:57 PM    (permalink
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Mayock said he thinks Ta'amu will be available in the later rounds. That's interesting.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:08 PM    (permalink
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Alshon Jeffery off your top 100? Is this real?
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Alshon Jeffery off your top 100? Is this real?
Someone else can take a shot on him, I'd rather draft someone who I feel more comfortable with. Going to trust my gut on him. Would you have drafted JaMarcus Russell in the top 100 in retrospect? If you think they're going to bust, don't pick them.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Someone else can take a shot on him, I'd rather draft someone who I feel more comfortable with. Going to trust my gut on him. Would you have drafted JaMarcus Russell in the top 100 in retrospect? If you think they're going to bust, don't pick them.
I just think people get to insane over a picture. Which is the main reason Alshon has been getting so much negative pub this season.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:40 PM    (permalink
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I just think people get to insane over a picture. Which is the main reason Alshon has been getting so much negative pub this season.
In interviews he seems high-strung and emotionally volatile, he has the weight issues as you mentioned, and there were some effort concerns this season as he grew frustrated with the play at quarterback. It's fair to wonder if he will be able to separate in the NFL or whether he will be a low-percentage, throw-it-up-there-and-hope kind of guy. Jeffery is a great talent but he's a great talent for another team to try and coax into performing.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:09 PM    (permalink
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The whole 2L/3E shouldn't be top 100
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:48 PM    (permalink
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I like the work done here... props.

My question is why did you take Ronnell Lewis off your board?
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:49 PM    (permalink
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The whole 2L/3E shouldn't be top 100
I disagee, I actually think TY Hilton should be top 50.
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Old 03-02-2012, 01:42 AM    (permalink
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I like the work done here... props.

My question is why did you take Ronnell Lewis off your board?
I just have never found him particularly impressive on tape and I'm concerned about his academic issues. I'll re-evaluate him at some point but I'm just not a huge fan. He'll have to play OLB in a 3-4 in the NFL, but I can't see him fitting into a 4-3.
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Old 03-02-2012, 04:38 AM    (permalink
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My comments:

I like Janoris Jenkins in the top 10 in terms of pure talent - just go back to the matchups he had in his Junior year. You don't see Claiborne having to deal with AJ Green and Julio Jones this year (indeed that's a minor concern for Claiborne - everyone says SEC and all that, but just who did he play this year? The Arkansas game was his toughest game I guess).

I really liked Ta'amu coming into the year, but he's not played as well this season - including at the Senior Bowl. I think he's still a top 100 talent, but more L2/E3 region. Mayock thinks he'll be around in the later rounds - I think it's time the Draft community stopped taking leads from him. He doesn't do this all year anymore and is playing catchup in a big way. At least Kiper, McShay, Wes Bunting and even Bucky Brooks do this all year.

I'm not high on the DE class this year at all - no one has consistently done it for me. Nick Perry is fast off the edge - but is a one trick pony and I see him as someone who needs to land in the right spot as JPP did with the Giants. Outside of need for a pass rusher I'd struggle to have a DE in the first round outside of Ingram, if indeed he is a DE.

100% agree with Reiff at 37 - don't like his technique and his combine numbers were very average.

Like Trumaine Johnson at 40 - has the potential to be very good.

I can see the logic for Mike Adams so low. He has all the tools to be a very good LT - but he just switches off far too often. He reminds me very much of my Michael Oher evaluation - why does he switch off? Can you trust him with your QB's blindside? I think probably he should go in the area Oher was eventually taken - but he might have to play RT for the same reasons Oher is. However, potentially he is better than Reiff - if he lands in the right situation this ranking will look silly - if he doesn't and never gets it, it will be about right - very tough to rank him, especially without getting to know him and figuring out if he is willing to work.

I'm not that high on Chase Minnifield - too many stupid plays, including against lesser opposition. I remember even in the Richmond game a couple of head scratchers. Will say though he was playing in a system which didn't really suit him - Al Groh recruited him to press just like Ras-I Dowling and he wasn't doing a lot of that this year - but hey the Cavs had a great year, so credit to Coach London.

Josh Chapman's ACL tear means he's a day three pick for me. Anyone who can't run before the Draft is unlikely to go super high - particularly with other NT options around.

Marcus Forston is always hurt and I can't say I'm that impressed anyway.

Jeff Fuller had a horrible senior year - he was hurt, but still dropped way too many catches - including the potential game winning 2 point converstion against K State. Loved him from junior tape - but you know the saying, never draft someone on their junior tape (see Brohm, Brian amongst others).

Brandon Brooks 100% agree - shocking he didn't receive a combine invitation.

TY Hilton - durability is a major concern. Healthy for the first two weeks of the season and simply dynamic - but not 100% the rest of the season - including Bowl game and Combine. Love him, but has to be downgraded significantly because of durability. I've just reluctantly moved him out of my top 100 and he's probably my favourite player to watch this year.

Same for LaVon Brazill - missed 2010 with injury - plus I think there are better options in a very deep WR class (I don't see Chris Givens anywhere for example).

Datko again durability - shoulder problems for a lineman is bad news. Day three. Frank Alexander killed him in the Oklahoma game - maybe the shoulder wasn't right, but still Alexander is a day three guy.

Agree Keenan Robinson is in - really like him - shame he didn't run super fast - but he did track RG3 down in the Baylor game which is a play I thought would gain him more attention.

I'd have Donnie Fletcher out - probably Prater too. Dwight Bentley I'd put in - played in a system where he had a Safety over the top, so could gamble - but he has the speed to play man, so he's in.

Jonathan Massaquoi I'd take out - why doesn't he dominate Sun Belt competition?? Only 5.5 sacks and 2 of those were in his last game of the year. Long arms, but can't move and he's only 264 lbs. Need to see all the 10 yard splits to see who I think might be a riser (and if anyone has seen them anywhere can they post where!!).

Agree with taking Ronnell Lewis out - I don't see much from him on tape and with the academic/injury concerns it's too much to expend a top 100 pick on him for me.

Also agree with Alshon Jeffery out. Anyone that big who gets handled physically by Casey Hayward doesn't deserve to be taken in the first 3 rounds. Plus - he's lighter - so why didn't he run?? Must be because he was running poor times in training. Looked very slow on tape - but he did look very heavy, particularly in his upper body.
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Old 03-02-2012, 05:37 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
Jenkins is talented, not top 10 though. His ceiling at the next level is Pacman Jones
Asante Samuel. Not pacman jones.
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Old 03-02-2012, 05:40 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by holt_bruce81 View Post
I just think people get to insane over a picture. Which is the main reason Alshon has been getting so much negative pub this season.
He admitted to not being in shape at South Carolina.
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Old 03-02-2012, 07:59 AM    (permalink
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Mike Adams at 52?
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:11 AM    (permalink
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duesouth, very nice work. I've included responses were appropriate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
I really liked Ta'amu coming into the year, but he's not played as well this season - including at the Senior Bowl. I think he's still a top 100 talent, but more L2/E3 region. Mayock thinks he'll be around in the later rounds - I think it's time the Draft community stopped taking leads from him. He doesn't do this all year anymore and is playing catchup in a big way. At least Kiper, McShay, Wes Bunting and even Bucky Brooks do this all year.

Josh Chapman's ACL tear means he's a day three pick for me. Anyone who can't run before the Draft is unlikely to go super high - particularly with other NT options around.
Ta'amu is one of my man-crushes as a humble, hard-working nose tackle who can play in both one and two-gap 3-4s as well as the 4-3. He is more of a true nose tackle than Dontari Poe and also surprisingly athletic with a lot of range. I'm not concerned about Chapman's injury or inability to run because we already know who he is as a prospect and can be confident in saying he's a capable 3-4 nose tackle after anchoring Alabama's defense. I do rank nose tackles very high because they are rare and vital to 3-4 defenses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
I can see the logic for Mike Adams so low. He has all the tools to be a very good LT - but he just switches off far too often. He reminds me very much of my Michael Oher evaluation - why does he switch off? Can you trust him with your QB's blindside? I think probably he should go in the area Oher was eventually taken - but he might have to play RT for the same reasons Oher is. However, potentially he is better than Reiff - if he lands in the right situation this ranking will look silly - if he doesn't and never gets it, it will be about right - very tough to rank him, especially without getting to know him and figuring out if he is willing to work.
Adams certainly has a great deal of upside and will most likely go in the first round but I think McShay said it best when he noted that Adams does the bare minimum required on the field. I watched a few interviews and Mike seemed like a shady individual, so I'm concerned about how seriously he will take the game after he has made his money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
I'm not that high on Chase Minnifield - too many stupid plays, including against lesser opposition. I remember even in the Richmond game a couple of head scratchers. Will say though he was playing in a system which didn't really suit him - Al Groh recruited him to press just like Ras-I Dowling and he wasn't doing a lot of that this year - but hey the Cavs had a great year, so credit to Coach London.
Agreed on Minnifield having a disappointing season, but he is long, athletic, and aggressive with NFL bloodlines and a well-rounded game. I think he ends up as a capable outside corner in the NFL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
Marcus Forston is always hurt and I can't say I'm that impressed anyway.
Forston is a player who should be better in the NFL than he was in college. He is a disruptive player who fires off the snap quickly and can slip between blockers in order to create pressure. I would like to see him as a 4-3 under tackle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
Jeff Fuller had a horrible senior year - he was hurt, but still dropped way too many catches - including the potential game winning 2 point converstion against K State. Loved him from junior tape - but you know the saying, never draft someone on their junior tape (see Brohm, Brian amongst others).
Fuller seemed to have some issues with confidence and concentration this season, but he has already developed into a receiver who can beat press coverage, as we saw against Patrick Peterson, a premier college press cornerback. I love Fuller's size and strength and the way he shields defenders from the ball. He should be a quality red zone option in the NFL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
Datko again durability - shoulder problems for a lineman is bad news. Day three. Frank Alexander killed him in the Oklahoma game - maybe the shoulder wasn't right, but still Alexander is a day three guy.
Datko may not have been quite as effective as expected last season and the durability is a concern but he is a long-armed tackle with the quickness and athleticism to play on the left side in the NFL and is consequently a candidate to be drafted higher than expected. Potential left tackles are seen as very valuable in almost every draft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
I'd have Donnie Fletcher out - probably Prater too. Dwight Bentley I'd put in - played in a system where he had a Safety over the top, so could gamble - but he has the speed to play man, so he's in.
Tough to rank the cornerbacks this year; I've seen a great deal of Fletcher but not as much of Prater or Bentley relatively speaking. Fletcher will be limited to zone coverage or possibly free safety but he has length and instincts. I'll look into Bentley some more, but Prater's athleticism and professionalism should lead to a respectable NFL career. Most of my cornerback evaluations were done before the season, so reviewing more tape from 2011 is needed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
Jonathan Massaquoi I'd take out - why doesn't he dominate Sun Belt competition?? Only 5.5 sacks and 2 of those were in his last game of the year. Long arms, but can't move and he's only 264 lbs. Need to see all the 10 yard splits to see who I think might be a riser (and if anyone has seen them anywhere can they post where!!).
Massaquoi is certainly a project and should face serious questions about his ability to locate the ball and disengage from blockers in the run game, but has the size to project to outside linebacker in a 3-4 and on tape he looks much more athletic than he wound up being at the Combine. It is possible that he tried to gain too much weight and it negatively impacted his speed, but even at 250 pounds or so he would be an intriguing option for some 3-4 defenses. I'll take a closer look before I post my next big board.
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:26 AM    (permalink
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Good stuff duesouth and MattJones.

MJ, what would you say to the fact that RBs in the NFL are basically irrelevant nowadays?

That's overstated, but even the best ones of the past decade+ (Peterson, MJD, Rice, CJ2K, Tomlinson) never once even got their team to a Super Bowl.
They were, are, did great, but it's not enough. And RB's get hurt too often compared to top QBs.

I just feel the RB position keeps dropping in terms of importance relative to some other positions. Mark Ingram didn't help the Saints at all so I think he was not worthy, clearly, of what they gave up to get him, value-wise.
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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I like that its off the wall and different than many rankings lists I've seen, including my own. I like that you are high on Jenkins, DeCastro, and Glenn. Kalil is far too low for my taste and Nick Foles at 28 is a bit of a head-scratcher. I do not think Foles will even be one of the first 6 or 7 QBs taken.
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