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Old 04-05-2012, 02:46 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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I never thought Upshaw could be "the guy" as a pass rusher. His ceiling is to be "the other guy" for a team who already has "the guy." Teams like Green Bay and Baltimore are clearly still interested. Probably the interview at the combine (which I heard went horribly for Upshaw) is more of a problem than anything else.
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Old 04-05-2012, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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I have my doubts with him as a fit in Green Bay since the OLBs have more coverage responsibilities than a Wade Phillips system for example. Maybe it is just the extra weight slowing him down. I agree with others that he should have been in the 260 - 265 range for the draft evaluation process. If drafted as a DE he could have bulked up but he likely would have benefited in pre-draft testing by being lighter. Now teams are left to speculate as to how he would perform at a lighter weight.
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Old 04-05-2012, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nepg View Post
I think he's just a little overweight. Not sure exactly what he's trying to do at close to 280... If he lost what I estimate to be 25-30lbs of excess weight, his numbers would be amazing.
the fact that he ran a 4.7 at 280 is excellent. 10 more pounds he's Fletcher Cox.

this is a case where people are putting too much stock into the workouts. This is a guy who was unquestionably one of the best defenders (possibly the best) defender on the best defense in the nation. He was also one of the best defenders on the South squad in Mobile. He was considered a top 15 lock. Now his workouts weren't great that makes him a 3rd rounder? i dont buy it
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Old 04-05-2012, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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The guys a football player, plain and simple... i don't see him falling to the third.
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Old 04-05-2012, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by YAYareaRB View Post
hes being looked at a OLB/DE
I understand. Just my personal opinion.
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Old 04-05-2012, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by killxswitch View Post
I thought towards the end of his career McGinnest played inside. My mistake.
I think he played a little inside for the Browns, IDR...I do know that they put him at 5 tech DE a little bit there b/c they had no one. He was a really versatile guy b/c of his size and strength.
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Old 04-06-2012, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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I was watching NFLN this morning before leaving for work and saw some footage from Upshaw's pro day. It actually showed him commenting that he was disappointed he came in heavy and that he was hoping to weigh-in around 268. So it sounds like he is about 10lbs over where he wants to be.
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Old 04-06-2012, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
the fact that he ran a 4.7 at 280 is excellent. 10 more pounds he's Fletcher Cox.

this is a case where people are putting too much stock into the workouts. This is a guy who was unquestionably one of the best defenders (possibly the best) defender on the best defense in the nation. He was also one of the best defenders on the South squad in Mobile. He was considered a top 15 lock. Now his workouts weren't great that makes him a 3rd rounder? i dont buy it
Agreed, but he isnt a 1st round lock anymore.

J
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Old 04-06-2012, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
the fact that he ran a 4.7 at 280 is excellent. 10 more pounds he's Fletcher Cox.

this is a case where people are putting too much stock into the workouts. This is a guy who was unquestionably one of the best defenders (possibly the best) defender on the best defense in the nation. He was also one of the best defenders on the South squad in Mobile. He was considered a top 15 lock. Now his workouts weren't great that makes him a 3rd rounder? i dont buy it
It was more like a 4.8 but having a mediocre time in a straight line is not impressive if the movement and explosion drills (cone, shuttle, jumps) are all terrible. Try and find one defensive end who has ever developed into a quality pass rusher who timed that poorly in the shuttle and cone. Upshaw may be so good he defies draft history but I'd rather play the percentages and pass.
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Old 04-06-2012, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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Below are notable shuttle/cone results from highly-drafted or successful defensive ends in the past 10 drafts. I have highlighted especially poor times:

Adrian Clayborn – 4.13/7.30
Cameron Jordan – 4.37/7.07
Ryan Kerrigan – 4.39/7.18
Robert Quinn – 4.40/7.13
Aldon Smith – 4.50/7.19
Carlos Dunlap – 4.61/7.21
Derrick Morgan – 4.43/7.12
Jason Pierre-Paul: 4.67/7.18
Robert Ayers – 4.51/7.56 (7.07 at pro day)
Michael Johnson – 4.37/7.42
Aaron Maybin – 4.38/7.52
Vernon Gholston – 4.40/7.12
Derrick Harvey – 4.36/7.27
Lawrence Jackson - 4.40/7.08
Jason Jones – 4.32/7.29
Chris Long – 4.21/7.02
Gaines Adams – 4.36/7.17
Adam Carriker – 4.18/7.06
Anthony Spencer – 4.43/7.14
Mark Anderson – 4.24/6.96
Ray Edwards – 4.59/7.71
Mathias Kiwanuka – 4.15/7.29
Mario Williams – 4.37/7.21
Kamerion Wimbley – 4.48/6.98
Erasmus James – 4.44/7.56
David Pollack – 3.94/6.87
Jared Allen – 4.34/7.11
Charles Grant – 4.39/7.69

As you can see, the only prospect who has succeeded despite poor times in both drills is Ray Edwards, who had a vertical jump of 39" (compared to 27.5" for Upshaw) and put up 30 reps on the bench (22 for Upshaw.) I don't like those odds.
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Old 04-06-2012, 03:07 PM    (permalink
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Interesting that at a quick glance it looks like players with particularly poor shuttle times have had more success than players with particularly poor 3 cone times.
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Old 04-06-2012, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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The physical/testing resemblances between Robert Ayers and Courtney Upshaw are uncanny:

Ayers:

6'3", 272, 4.77, 18 reps, 29.5" vert, 4.51 shuttle, 7.56 cone

Upshaw:

6'2", 279, 4.76, 22 reps, 27.5" vert, 4.60 shuttle, 7.73 cone

Note: Ayers improved his cone drill to 7.07 at his pro day, and Upshaw's numbers are all taken from his pro day with the exception of the bench press. Upshaw was also 272 at the Combine.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:34 PM    (permalink
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I know the draft process has not been great for him.

But the guy is still top 25 on everyone's boards and Mayock still has him as the 2nd best DE in the draft ahead of Nick Perry.

Can someone tell me why this guy is defying draft common sense?
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
the fact that he ran a 4.7 at 280 is excellent. 10 more pounds he's Fletcher Cox.

this is a case where people are putting too much stock into the workouts. This is a guy who was unquestionably one of the best defenders (possibly the best) defender on the best defense in the nation. He was also one of the best defenders on the South squad in Mobile. He was considered a top 15 lock. Now his workouts weren't great that makes him a 3rd rounder? i dont buy it
This statement couldn't be more off base. For starters Cox weighed in at 298 and I bet he plays heavier than that so it would be at least another 20 pounds for Upshaw. Upshaw isn't even 6'2'' and has 32 inch arms, Cox is 6'4'' with 34 1/2 inch arms.

Adding 20 pounds to Upshaw wouldn't make him Fletcher Cox at all.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
The physical/testing resemblances between Robert Ayers and Courtney Upshaw are uncanny:

Ayers:

6'3", 272, 4.77, 18 reps, 29.5" vert, 4.51 shuttle, 7.56 cone

Upshaw:

6'2", 279, 4.76, 22 reps, 27.5" vert, 4.60 shuttle, 7.73 cone

Note: Ayers improved his cone drill to 7.07 at his pro day, and Upshaw's numbers are all taken from his pro day with the exception of the bench press. Upshaw was also 272 at the Combine.
The difference is that Upshaw is legitimately a good football player...
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
the fact that he ran a 4.7 at 280 is excellent. 10 more pounds he's Fletcher Cox.

this is a case where people are putting too much stock into the workouts. This is a guy who was unquestionably one of the best defenders (possibly the best) defender on the best defense in the nation. He was also one of the best defenders on the South squad in Mobile. He was considered a top 15 lock. Now his workouts weren't great that makes him a 3rd rounder? i dont buy it
This. Upshaw gets it done on the field, and isn't going to be a workout freak. He has great instincts and an ability to find the football that sets him apart from guys who may be quicker in shorts.
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Old 04-09-2012, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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Matthew Jones I agree with your analysis but I question whether Upshaw's numbers at pro day are his real numbers. he worked out late and overweight, which isn't ideal. why was he heavy? Why did he work out late?

and even with all that people say he "impesses"

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/...labama-pro-day

I am more willing to forgive this player for workout issues, when his on the field play is so nasty.
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Old 04-09-2012, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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If he is indeed the "Black Jarret Johnson" then he should be a first round pick even if jarret wasnt. Jarret Johnson is a very talented and very underrated OLB/DE for the ravens and is the "other guy" to terrell suggs the past few years and has since gone to san diego where he will be the other guy to shaun phillips.
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Old 04-09-2012, 03:26 PM    (permalink
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Maybe he is tanking cause he wants to play for BB with that Saban connection

PS
This isn't logic thinking, just a goof
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Old 04-09-2012, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Like others have suggested, I think Upshaw at the moment is overweight.
His best weight as a pro IMO is between 255#-265#.

He's athletic enough at the right weight. But I don't think he has a great future in the pros as a fulltime DE.

LOL I weigh myself everyday. Don't know how Courtney was surprised he was heavy for his proday.
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Old 04-09-2012, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
As you can see, the only prospect who has succeeded despite poor times in both drills is Ray Edwards, who had a vertical jump of 39" (compared to 27.5" for Upshaw) and put up 30 reps on the bench (22 for Upshaw.) I don't like those odds.
I think vertical jump is the best measurement for pass rushers. Many of the players you listed with poor shuttles/3-cones redeemed themselves with their jumps and many of the biggest busts can be attributed to poor explosiveness via vertical jump.

Derrick Harvey 28.5"
Lawrence Jackson 31"
Jarvis Moss 30.5"
Everette Brown 31.5"
Robert Ayers 29.5"
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Old 04-09-2012, 08:18 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Originally Posted by RWills View Post
Maybe he is tanking cause he wants to play for BB with that Saban connection

PS
This isn't logic thinking, just a goof
I heard he was tanking because he hates money and wants to make as little of it as possible.
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Old 04-09-2012, 08:28 PM    (permalink
jojo
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I think the game tapes from their championship season at Bama this yr. will compensate for that. He was the Tide defense's Marcell Dareus in 2011. Saban moved him around to get the best matchups, but he's not a true DE/OLB tweener, too much upper body strength. I think some team will still take him in the 1st & play him as 5-technique DE with his hand on the ground. It remains to be seen how he does vs. NFL-quality OTs.

And his MVP performance in the bowl win a yr. ago where he singlehandedly dismantled the Michigan St. offense. Ask Kirk Cousins what he thinks about Upshaw -- he was in Cousins' face all day.
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Old 04-09-2012, 08:37 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage View Post
I heard he was tanking because he hates money and wants to make as little of it as possible.
This logic makes a lot of sense under the old CBA, but under the new CBA a player falling from pick 20 to pick 50 isn't nearly as big of a deal. The money to be made is in the second contract.
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Old 04-09-2012, 10:31 PM    (permalink
Sportsfan486
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When I watch tape of Upshaw I see a lot of talented Alabama defenders getting a lot of attention and Upshaw getting very little and kind of manuevering into position to make plays via the scheme and talent around him.

That said, I like his use of hands and ability to better a blocker 1 on 1. Not necessarily get around him but control and disengage to make tackles. I think he has great upside as an elite run stopping DE that will give you some pass rushing as well.

As a 3-4 OLB? I don't see it. His strength is getting hands on someone and controlling them. That's nice for a 3-4 OLB but what you're really looking for is someone to use moves to get by people and make plays in the backfield, who can also drop back and show lateral coverage ability. You don't spend a 1st round pick on a gap control / run stopping 3-4 OLB. Dont'a Hightower is a far superior 3-4 OLB prospect, in my opinion.

I think he'll go in the top 25, to a 4-3 team.
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