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Old 04-02-2012, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Default Which Players Absolutely Will Not Last Past #10?

I count Luck, RG III, Claibourne, and Kalil as the only absolute sure things, based on what we know now. I would add Richardson, Tannehill and Blackmon as 90% certain. On everyone else I can see a scenario where the player slips to #11.

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Old 04-02-2012, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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As it stands right now, I too feel the same about your first four (most people probably will. As for the rest of the top ten "locks", I'll say Richardson and Blackmon are also in there, and I am not a huge fan of Blackmon. Those are my 6 guys that I'd say are "locks".

After that though, its a crapshoot. I do end up thinking Tannehill goes top ten based of of the value of QB position, but I could just as easily see him last until the later teens. If I had to say one other guy, it'd be Coples. Pass rushers are also valued quite highly and there are teams in the top 10 as well as teams close enough to trade up for him into the top ten that I think he is likely to go.

But my "Locks" are Luck, RGIII, Kalil, Claiborne, Richardson, and Blackmon, with Tannehill and Coples as my "fairly certain" top ten picks. Blackmon may be in that tier with Tannehill and Coples, but with how WR has shown to be valued this past off-season, I'm inclined to think he'd be a lock as well.
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Old 04-02-2012, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't lock Coples in the top 15
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Old 04-02-2012, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Tannehill and Coples as my "fairly certain" top ten picks.
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Old 04-02-2012, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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Default

Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, and Claiborne. I'm about 99.9999999% sure Blackmon will go top 10. So you could put those 6 guys in there. Richardson probably is a top 5 lock to either Cleveland or Tampa Bay it sounds like. Tannehill is a safe bet as well, though not 100% sure. I'd say at least 95% though, sounds like the Dolphins won't pass on him.

That's 7. Coples might be the next best bet, but he's far from 100% certain to go top ten. After that it's likely down to guys like Riley Reiff, Michael Floyd, Dontari Poe (or Fletcher Cox) if the Panthers take a DT, and maybe (doubtfully) Melvin Ingram or some dark horse like that.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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Based on pure football ability David DeCastro should be a lock for the top 10.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Default

Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Claiborne, Blackmon. TRich, probably, but not quite ready for 100% lock.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Default

I'd say the top 6(Luck, RG3, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne and Blackmon) will all go in the top 6 picks, only other player that's a lock is Reiff who has a chance to go Jacksonville or Buffalo.
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderNation View Post
I'd say the top 6(Luck, RG3, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne and Blackmon) will all go in the top 6 picks, only other player that's a lock is Reiff who has a chance to go Jacksonville or Buffalo.
Don't be so sure on Reiff....
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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I think it's about time we started talking more about Fletcher Cox in the top 10....
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Old 04-02-2012, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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Default

Reiff seems to have dissenting opinions on what he is at the next level. Some think he is a great technician with good enough feet and athleticism who will be a franchise left tackle in the NFL and a top 10 pick......others seem to think he isn't as athletic as they thought, with shorter arms and not enough agility and that he is better off at guard or maybe right tackle in the NFL, and that he won't go that high in the first round. Seems like a guy who could go as high as 6 or 10, but who could also drop into the mid teens or twenties on draft day.
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Default

As far as locks, Luck, RG3, Claiborne, Kalil, Blackmon, and Richardson. Someone will take Tannehill. Floyd will come off the board within 5 picks of Blackmon.

If I'm picking a dark horse for the top 10, I also like Kuechly to be up there.
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:02 PM    (permalink
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I think it's about time we started talking more about Fletcher Cox in the top 10....
Do you like him more than Dontari Poe?
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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There are no lock DEs listed above. Experience is that there will be at least 1, probably 2.

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Old 04-02-2012, 02:20 PM    (permalink
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I think: Luck, RG3, Claiborne, Kalil, Richardson, and Blackmon are the locks. I personally wouldn't touch: Tannehill, Coples, Ingram, or Poe until 15+, however there is a good chance all 3 make their way up there. The other two semi-obvious choices would be Floyd & Reiff.

Guys I could see creep up there would be: Cox, Gilmore, and Kirkpatrick.
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:35 PM    (permalink
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Luck, rg3, claiborne and kalil
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Old 04-02-2012, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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Luck, rg3, claiborne and kalil
Same though I would add Blackmon. I don't care how good Trent Richardson is. I am not picking a RB in the top 10. Too many chances to get a good RB later.
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Old 04-02-2012, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Michael Floyd.
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Old 04-02-2012, 04:39 PM    (permalink
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Obvious nothing is an absolute lock. I am 99.9% sure on only four. Luck Griffin Kalil and Claiborne. That is it. Blackmon is close but too many red flags. I see a bunch of scenarios where he falls out of the top ten. Granted i see more that do have him in the top 10 but I would never call him a lock. Say he gets a DUI or alcohol related offense before the draft?
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Old 04-02-2012, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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Based on pure football ability David DeCastro should be a lock for the top 10.
Agreed

I have him going to Jax in my latest mock

Reiff will get past the top 15 as well (Cody will go before Reiff)
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Old 04-02-2012, 05:58 PM    (permalink
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Luck, Griffin and Kalil are 100%. Claiborne is 99%. Blackmon and Richardson are maybe 85-90%. Nobody else is above 50%.
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Old 04-02-2012, 06:00 PM    (permalink
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No chance Blackmon gets by Jacksonville or even Buffalo at 10, also no chance of Claiborne falling out of the top 10, Carolina would love to get him.
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Old 04-03-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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I think Blackmon is just as likely to go outside the top 10 than he is in it.
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Old 04-03-2012, 11:42 PM    (permalink
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Luck, RG3, and Kalil are 100% locks.

I'd put Claiborne around 95%.

Blackmon around 90%.

Richardson around 80%.

After that there's a pretty sizeable drop-off.
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Old 04-03-2012, 11:57 PM    (permalink
thebow305
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I'd put Luck, RG3, Richardson, Kalil, Claiborne and Blackmon as absolute 100% LOCKS for the Top 10. I'm actually starting to lean toward putting Michael Floyd in that group as well.

I'd book those seven for the Top 10. BOOK IT!
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Last edited by thebow305 : 04-04-2012 at 12:00 AM.
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