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Old 04-14-2012, 05:04 PM    (permalink
descendency
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Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
If you compiled the career numbers of all 1st round QBs, it might well be less than 7 years.
Let's speculate you are right. You know what you call that? A bust. So you're saying it's ok to draft a bust with a first round pick.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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This. At 22, I could take him late first or maybe even early second. Absolutely no way he drops out of the first two days.

At 28, I'm going to be concerned in investing even a 4th rounder.
This is self consistent. If he is a 2nd tier QB in 2007, then you put him behind Brady Quinn. I flatly disagree, but if that is his grade, he is worth a 3rd day pick now. IMO he would have been a top 10 pick in 2007, see ibid.

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Old 04-14-2012, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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This is self consistent. If he is a 2nd tier QB in 2007, then you put him behind Brady Quinn. I flatly disagree, but if that is his grade, he is worth a 3rd day pick now. IMO he would have been a top 10 pick in 2007, see ibid.

J
So...he would have been the Blaine Gabbert, I mean, a QB who has no place in the 1st round at all but still gets selected, of 07?
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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This. At 22, I could take him late first or maybe even early second. Absolutely no way he drops out of the first two days.

At 28, I'm going to be concerned in investing even a 4th rounder.
As it stands right now, I'd invite him to camp as an UDFA guy but I have no hopes that he will have any lasting power in the NFL at all. I wouldn't waste a pick anywhere on him, and this is coming from a guy who wants a new QB on the Chiefs more than almost anything.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:35 PM    (permalink
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ok, the track record for QB's is low because of busts, ala Jamarcus and such. and these guys got longer leashes because of potential (maybe not the walrus, but others). Weeden won't get that because he doesn't have that time to grow and improve. Teams draft QB's in the first to be their future franchise guy for over a decade. You miss with some and get busts, that's how the draft and league work.

I'm just not sure why you're kinda dismissing this age this j. I respect a lot of your opinions but you're way off here. Hits matter, but when you're younger, you heal faster. Age is such a crucial part. He's got like 3 years of a "prime" if that, whereas most QB's from 25-32 can be considered the prime for most (physical and mental). Weeden, at 28 will be a rookie. Have the adaptations to go through and when he's perhaps adjusted to the NFL, he's 30. Freaking 30. When he comes into his own. at age 33 or so, his body starts to wear down.

And yeah, he really isn't that good anyways
I think this is the crux of all the arguments. There is disagreement on his basic ability.

On one hand, you have two of the best QB prospects in a decade using up #1 and #2, which sucks a lot of life out of the conversation. Back in January, a lot of people were calling Tannehill a 3rd round pick. Some years, though not the last three, Tannehill would have been in the running for #1 overall. This is because he would be the best QB in the class. Consider the conversation if Luck had come out last year. RG III would be the logical #1, and there would be jockeying for rights to Tannehill. I note again that RT was often called a mid rounder in the early post season.

That kind of disparity is normal when discussing QBs. Vidae will probably recall that I took flack for suggesting that the Chiefs take Tannehill at #11. Now it is understood that they will be thrilled if he falls to them. In absolute terms, Tannehill is probably in the mid 20s without regard to position, but likely #8 in actual value. Time will tell if the gamble we expect Miami to take is a good one. You pays your pick and you takes your chance.

IMO Weeden is a better risk than Tannehill, because his floor is higher. Physicall and stylistically, they are as different as Luck and RG III. Weeden is much more of a classic drop back passer, in spite of the shotgun snaps and spread offense he ran. However, as noted above, he can make any throw, and he has the leadership values a QB has to have. Some call it the "It" factor. Weeden has "It".

Purely for the next 5 years, I would take Weeden over Tannehill. Weeden is that good. Several people say that Weeden would be a 2nd round pick if he were a normal aged senior. I strongly disagree. IMO he is a solid top 10 pick if this is 2007, when the top QBs are J Russ, Quinn, Kolb and Beck. He fits well above Quinn. This year, with both Luck and RG III, I would feel more comfortable with top 15.

BTW, for those that think he is a 4th rounder, remember that Kolb and Beck are fairly typical 2nd round QBs. I have no problem putting him above that level.

J
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:54 PM    (permalink
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My opinion on Weeden is that he is a transitional QB. He'd be ok to step in for a few years until a true franchise QB can be acquired. Because of that, there's no way I'd spend a first or second round pick on him. I'd rather sign Jason Campbell off the street who comes with tons of experience and then I can keep my pick to spend it for somebody with much more upside at another position.

I think the fact that Weeden's name is being thrown around as a bottom of the first or top of the second selection tells us that no franchise sees him as a franchise quarterback. That should be a huge clue though the proof will be where he goes on draft day as far as his standing as a prospect. A few years ago, before the rule changes made this more of a quarterback league, a prospect like Weeden goes in the third or fourth round.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
*yawn*
Just curious here, Are you suggesting that his physical package is in any way more suspect than normal? That is not consistent with published scouting reports. For example:

A strong, well put together quarterback with a live arm and the ability to make all the throws with ease. ...His age will likely keep him from going as early in the draft as his talents deserve.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...l&player=38638

The conclusion:
But there isn't a throw this guy can't make and he has the skill set and mental make-up to mature into a potential starter with some time.
ibid

That is pretty much the standard take. If you want to contest it, it is your responsibility to bring the facts.

J
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by eaglesalltheway View Post
APS, have you played baseball? Because if you're a pitcher (especially good enough to be drafted) you don't "push it" when you throw. His pushing motion when throwing a football is probably because throwing like a baseball (usually more over the top) causes him pain. That in itself would keep him off my board. He can't throw a football like he's supposed to because its hurts. But his pushing motion is not similar to how baseball pitchers should be throwing, its very different.
This is a very insightful (and damning) post. I don't know much about baseball or medicine; but if what you're suggesting is the case, I wouldn't draft him at all.

What's the story on his arm? Didn't I read that he opted to not have surgery, and it supposedly "healed" over time?

This video compilation is from last year, but it pretty much screams "5th round pick" to me:



He has obvious flaws as a passer, and nothing I have ever seen has made me think that he's "Pro Ready". His passes often lack touch, he consistently struggles to hit the correct shoulder, and his deep passes float on him just enough to be a problem.

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Old 04-14-2012, 07:25 PM    (permalink
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The conclusion:
But there isn't a throw this guy can't make and he has the skill set and mental make-up to mature into a potential starter with some time.
ibid

That is pretty much the standard take. If you want to contest it, it is your responsibility to bring the facts.

J
Potential starting QB with some time is fine but he's 29 in Oct. We've most likely seen him at his physical peak. Time is something you can't change. With all due respect to Weeden, he's a fine prospect, just simply not worth the time translating to not worth the pick. Obviously, he'll be drafted but for the rest of his career, the odds are against him.
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:42 PM    (permalink
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This is a very insightful (and damning) post. I don't know much about baseball or medicine; but if what you're suggesting is the case, I wouldn't draft him at all.

What's the story on his arm? Didn't I read that he opted to not have surgery, and it supposedly "healed" over time?

This video compilation is from last year, but it pretty much screams "5th round pick" to me:



He has obvious flaws as a passer, and nothing I have ever seen has made me think that he's "Pro Ready". His passes often lack touch, he consistently struggles to hit the correct shoulder, and his deep passes float on him just enough to be a problem.
You noticed that those were 2010 highlights I see. What flaws are you pointing out.

J

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Old 04-15-2012, 10:54 AM    (permalink
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He has obvious flaws as a passer, and nothing I have ever seen has made me think that he's "Pro Ready".

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Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
You noticed that those were 2010 highlights I see. What flaws are you pointing out.

J
I noticed you noticed he mentioned Weeden having flaws. I also noticed you stopped reading literally the sentence before he lists the faults he sees with Weeden.

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His passes often lack touch, he consistently struggles to hit the correct shoulder, and his deep passes float on him just enough to be a problem.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-15-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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He's just playing hard to get Njx, and I can't speak for you, but it's working on me.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-15-2012, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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i dont know where this mytholical age came about that when a QB turns 28 he is NFL ready. most QBs that are 28 are going into the prime of their careers, but that is because they held a clipboard or played the game learning by the school of hard knocks. QBs that come into the NFL with 2 years of college experience and already 28 ARE NOT NFL READY!!! he can have all the tools in the world (which he doesn't have) and he isn't NFL ready. and this whole comparison to Trent Green needs to stop. Trent suffered and struggled for years IN THE NFL before he was given a chance to start.
-'93 drafted by the Chargers 0 starts
-'94 spent in the CFL, then cut 0 starts
-'95 Redskins 0 starts
-'96 Redskins 0 starts
-'97 Redskins 0 starts
-'98 Redskins starts in game 2 on 15 starts

thats 5 years of holding a clipboard, learning the defense, watching film, practicing with other NFLers before he got a start.

Weeden graduated HS in 2002, pitched for 5 years with 374 innnings of work and started for 2 years at OSU. there is no comparison between them. Trent earned his and was studying film while he was aging. Weeden was OUT OF THE GAME OF FOOTBALL for 5 ******* years and has 2 years of experience at the college level.

age does not make a QB NFL ready. EXPERIENCE DOES!!! the biggest hole in Weedens game is that, experience, not his age. the fact that he is trying learn at an older age makes his window of opportunity a lot smaller than most 21 years olds with 2 years college experience.
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:12 PM    (permalink
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Five Reasons drafting Weeden is a bad idea.

1. He's almost 29 years old.
2. He has far more wear on his arm than any other 29 year old QB.
3. He played in a spread with no huddles and a silent snap.
4. He likes to throw interceptions and make boneheaded plays.
5. He was already drafted in the 2nd round in a pro sport. And busted. Miserably. At a position where his job was to throw the ball.
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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Five Reasons drafting Weeden is a bad idea.

1. He's almost 29 years old.
2. He has far more wear on his arm than any other 29 year old QB.
3. He played in a spread with no huddles and a silent snap.
4. He likes to throw interceptions and make boneheaded plays.
5. He was already drafted in the 2nd round in a pro sport. And busted. Miserably. At a position where his job was to throw the ball.
this doesn't make any sense, yes he played baseball, but far more wear? idk about that. So because he couldn't throw a baseball, which is a different motion btw, he can't throw a football? Your other reasons are a lot more valid but I just don't see these
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Old 04-15-2012, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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The fact that he's 28 with a failed 5 year baseball career suggests that his arm has more wear. But pitchers dont't throw countless amount of bullpen sessions, long throws, and things of the sort. All they do is pitch on gameday. What the **** kind of logic is it to suggest his arm doesnt't have more wear when he's 6 years older and a failed P prospect? Maybe if he didn't pitch and played a position then I could maybe see where you're coming from. But again, he is what he is at this point.

On top of that, he was injured.

Do not want.
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Old 04-15-2012, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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I don't know who's arguing for this guy in the 1st round, but you're on drugs. Limited upside is the key phrase. Every other top 10 QB in this class has comparable or better talent, and higher upside. Taking Weeden, for any reason, over Cousins or Osweiler, is going to get your GM fired.
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Old 04-15-2012, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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are you serious? you don't think having a torn labrum and rotator cuff issues, along with all of the throws, constitutes more wear? let's just save some time: you're wrong.


The injury was in 2004. He has had time to recover. He has also had 2 years as a starting time QB since then. It bears watching, but not a red flag. Weeden has an easy throwing motion, with no apparent effort.

The most common criticism I see of Weeden is that he does not look good on tape. I have some difficulty understanding this, because watching him run their offense gave a sense of inevitability to he drives. Perhaps to much stop action is being used,so you lose the flow. For comparison, Baylor was not nearly as good grinding it out. RG III had a sense of impending exlosion, but sometimes it never went off. Weeden was much better at running the offense.

Try to tone down the rants. You are crossing the line into abuse. This is not personal.

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Old 04-15-2012, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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Being able to grind it out against weak college defenses doesn't make you a promising pick. RGIII is first round prospect because he showed the ability to be make big plays, making the tough throws a QB needs to be a standout starter in the NFL. Weeden didn't. What Weeden showed was the potential to be a mediocre starter a la Cassel or Orton. If that's his upside and he's already 28 with a worn arm, why would you waste a premium pick on that when you can take a kid who has the tools to be a standout and isn't under the gun to make it happen quickly due to a likely 5 year prime.
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Old 04-15-2012, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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RG3 became a first rounder when he killed Oklahoma. He won the game. That last drive was special.

Remember the name Bryon Coleman. He'll go before Weeden. Similar situation to when the Patriots drafted Kevin O'Connell.
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Old 04-15-2012, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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I definitely take Weeden over Osweiler and Cousins, mainly Cousins, if I expect one of these guys to see the field as a starter in 2013-2014.

Osweiler is not a good QB. His pro potential is all about his physical tools, his game film is UDFA.

Cousins doesn't have Weeden's arm and shrank against elite competition. He looked like a HS QB against Alabama and literally struggled to take the snap and throw the football. Not a pressure/big game player.

Baseball pitchers throw the pill at approximately 85-95% max arm strength 120-150 times a game if they're a starter. QBs throw at max arm strength maybe 5-10 times a game and rarely throw the ball 40 times per start.

Weeden has no lingering affects from his rotator cuff injury and when's the last time an NFL QB threw his arm out??

Weeden IMO is a better prospect than Ponder, a better pure passer than Locker or Gabbert.

If you believe Weeden can start in two years, he's worth taking no later than the 3rd round.

Yes his age is a consideration, but he's almost 30, not 40. There are several examples of QBs playing their best football well into their 30s.

If Weeden can become a starter by age 30-31, there's a good possibility you get 5-7 years of playing time out of him.

Jeff Garcia didn't become a fulltime starter until he was 30. There are numerous examples like this.

It's not like whoever drafts Weeden is going to be in the hole $30+ mil guaranteed to sign him so it's not a financial issue.

If you think Weeden can play and help your team in the short term, after the 25th pick IMO his age shouldn't be a consideration.
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Old 04-15-2012, 03:14 PM    (permalink
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BTW I don't have the stats but I was beaten in the head over the last three months that Weeden had the best red zone efficiency of any QB in the BCS.

Granted that RGIII and Baylor did most of their scoring outside the redzone, but in the NFL it's a valued skillset if you can finish drives from inside the 20.
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Old 04-15-2012, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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Remember the name Bryon Coleman.
I'll forget the name Bryon Coleman. I'll remember the name B.J. Coleman ;P
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Old 04-15-2012, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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If Weeden can become a starter by age 30-31, there's a good possibility you get 5-7 years of playing time out of him.
Why? Why is there a good possibility? Because you say there is, or are there facts to back that up?

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Jeff Garcia didn't become a fulltime starter until he was 30. There are numerous examples like this.
Jeff Garcia also played in the CFL for five years and sat a year behind Steve Young. To say he didn't have much playing time until he was 30 is false.

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It's not like whoever drafts Weeden is going to be in the hole $30+ mil guaranteed to sign him so it's not a financial issue.
You'll notice that no one has said a word about his contract yet because it doesn't matter. What matters is wasting a premium pick for someone that has medical red flags and wasn't all that good to begin with, on top of his age.

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If you think Weeden can play and help your team in the short term, after the 25th pick IMO his age shouldn't be a consideration.
It should be a consideration, just like it is with every prospect. There is no reason to follow this logic for every other prospect but having one exempt from it "because you like him." And I guarantee you that teams don't agree with your "logic" there either.
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