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Old 04-15-2012, 04:58 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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How is drafting Weeden at the end of the first round or later suddenly giving up a premium pick in the salary cap era??

Nowadays draft picks are the opportunity cost spent in taking one player over another, there are really no financial considerations to consider for a player taken late in the first so there's no loss if Weeden is the guy you have the highest rated at that point.

That's why I mentioned his salary as a non-determining factor. No team's immediate future is going to be sunk because they drafted Weeden at the end of the first and he doesn't pan out.

Too much stock is being put on Weeden's age, that's all. It's not like his arm is going to fall off at 35.

If you think he can play and has upside, great. If you don't, fine. Other than potential years in the NFL, I don't see his age as a factor in Weeden's draft evaluation.

If Weeden is a starter by age 30, explain why it's unreasonable to assume if he performs well enough, that a team couldn't expect him to maintain his level of play for 5-7 years??? From a physical standpoint I don't see the automatic falloff at x-age for a QUARTERBACK.

The only legitimate arguments I've read against Weeden are from those who don't think he's that good anyway. In that case you spend a mid round pick on him and hope he develops and becomes a steal.
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Old 04-15-2012, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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see but by the time he "develops" the dude's like 32. I don't care about "hits" and what not, your body wears down as you get older. It's as simple as that.

And a late 1st rounder isn't a premium pick in this era? Are you kidding me? Especially in this draft, which has a ton of talent in the top 50. It's not money, it's talent and getting someone who can help your franchise more and for longer.

the dude is 5 years older than a typical college senior. that's 5 years less of a guy you get. I'm really not sure how people are over-looking this so much.
and by people, it seems just funbuncher and onejayhawk
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Old 04-15-2012, 05:15 PM    (permalink
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I'm just trying to make a point about Weeden. He's not on my radar as a QB.

But as a SKins fan I do know if we drafted a prospect like Weeden and we got 5-7 solid years out of him, I'd be ecstatic.
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Old 04-15-2012, 05:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
I'm just trying to make a point about Weeden. He's not on my radar as a QB.

But as a SKins fan I do know if we drafted a prospect like Weeden and we got 5-7 solid years out of him, I'd be ecstatic.
well that's because you've had poop at QB for the past forever, so that's not saying too much now, is it? :D

but i have multiple sads that you guys are gonna have RG3. I love him
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Old 04-15-2012, 06:14 PM    (permalink
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I'll forget the name Bryon Coleman. I'll remember the name B.J. Coleman ;P
I can't refer to a guy as "BJ". I'm sorry.
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Old 04-15-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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this doesn't make any sense, yes he played baseball, but far more wear? idk about that. So because he couldn't throw a baseball, which is a different motion btw, he can't throw a football? Your other reasons are a lot more valid but I just don't see these
For one thing, he was a fastball pitcher. Ever thrown one of those? It's a LOT more effort and unnatural then throwing a 60 yard pass. That's why pitchers often blow out their arms. It's physically more wearing to pitch a baseball than throw a football. A lot more wearing.

And he flamed out from injuries to his throwing arm. You think that doesn't affect his throwing of a football? I have an island up for sale.
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Old 04-15-2012, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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I'm just trying to make a point about Weeden. He's not on my radar as a QB.

But as a SKins fan I do know if we drafted a prospect like Weeden and we got 5-7 solid years out of him, I'd be ecstatic.
Consider that attitude in Cleveland, who owns the #22 pick.

Once you get back to #30, the risk is low enough teams like Philly and KC, plus Cleveland of course, will be willing to roll the dice.

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yes, telling him he's wrong is 'abuse'.
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Old 04-16-2012, 10:47 AM    (permalink
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i'm not even sure if you're serious at this point. between this post and your choice to not address a single reply anyone else has made about weeden's weaknesses (beyond suggesting that a torn labrum and significant rotator cuff issues aren't relevant), it's become quite clear you have no interest in honest debate and would rather nitpick another posters words with things like the spam emoticon than actually make a remotely intellectually honest reply to anything anyone posts. it's almost impressive in a really, really sad way.
You're not getting it njx...baseball isn't football therefore his injury is irrelevant as he now gets a clean slate and injuries don't transfer over...like...duh!! He's 28 in human/baseball years but only 22 in football years.
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Old 04-16-2012, 11:03 AM    (permalink
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I think as a rule saying somebody who is 28 shouldn't be a 1st round prospect is a stupid one. If your scouting department is convinced that a player is going to be an above average starter at the most valuable position in the sport, then you take him even if he's not going to be a 10 year player for your team. You can do a whole lot worse than 5 years of quality QB play with a first round pick. If you don't have a QB then you should be focused on getting one, and unless you have a top 10 pick it's extremely difficult to get one. Sometimes you need to settle for a guy who isn't going to be your 15 year franchise QB.

However, I personally think Weeden sucks, but that really doesn't have any relation to his age.

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Old 04-16-2012, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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How is drafting Weeden at the end of the first round or later suddenly giving up a premium pick in the salary cap era??

Nowadays draft picks are the opportunity cost spent in taking one player over another, there are really no financial considerations to consider for a player taken late in the first so there's no loss if Weeden is the guy you have the highest rated at that point.
that makes early round draft picks MORE valuable, not less. you get to add top talent without having to pay a premium price as you would have to in free agency. if your pick busts while your division rivals add young talent, you are now that much further behind.

the salary cap forces GM's to be smarter with their money. without it, teams like the Redskins could be the Yankees of the NFL, where they can blow money on scrub players and think nothing of it. instead, they are punished for wasting money, regardless of whether or not they can afford it.
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Old 04-16-2012, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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For one thing, he was a fastball pitcher. Ever thrown one of those? It's a LOT more effort and unnatural then throwing a 60 yard pass. That's why pitchers often blow out their arms. It's physically more wearing to pitch a baseball than throw a football. A lot more wearing.

And he flamed out from injuries to his throwing arm. You think that doesn't affect his throwing of a football? I have an island up for sale.
pitchers blow out their arms from throwing too many breaking balls not fastballs. fastballs, along with changeups, put the least wear and tear on the arm. breaking ball pitches like the curveball, slider, screwball, forkball, etc. all put strain on the arm, specifically the elbow. not to mention that it creates much more fatigue. someone who only throws fastballs and changeups can throw 120-140 pitches a game, whereas a pitcher that relies on breaking balls is done by 100.

with that said, fastballs can destroy you if your pitching mechanics are bad. it puts more and more stress on your entire body the harder you throw. Joel Zumaya could hit 105mph on the radar gun, but the guy could never stay healthy. why? because his pitching form is so violent it makes you cringe just watching him. hes hurt pretty much every major joint and tendon in his arm, and his career is pretty much done after blowing out his elbow.

with that said, i dont blame Weeden for going into baseball like some people on the boards here have been doing. before he hurt got a torn labrum in his rotator cuff, he was a good pitcher. he wasnt the Yankees top pick in the draft for no reason, and the $565,000 they gave him is proof of that. and unlike most young pro athletes, he was smart with his money so he is now financially set for life. its how he was able to go into football at his age with no worries.

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Old 04-16-2012, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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that makes early round draft picks MORE valuable, not less. you get to add top talent without having to pay a premium price as you would have to in free agency. if your pick busts while your division rivals add young talent, you are now that much further behind.

the salary cap forces GM's to be smarter with their money. without it, teams like the Redskins could be the Yankees of the NFL, where they can blow money on scrub players and think nothing of it. instead, they are punished for wasting money, regardless of whether or not they can afford it.

The rookie cap allows teams to spend MORE on free agency, not less. That was the whole point of establishing a rookie cap, to pay veterans more who had actually proven their worth in the pros instead of taking these huge future positions on draft picks who were unproven.

If Weeden is taken at pick 28 and is a bust, the salary cap hit is negligible and his contract is off the books in a year.

Nowadays teams can gamble taking a guy like Dontari Poe high in the draft based solely on his measurables/potential because they aren't on the hook for $30 mil+ guaranteed money whether he can play or not.

If you need a QB and Weeden grades out as one of the better QB prospects by your team's scouting department, there's little downside in taking him late in the first.
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Old 04-16-2012, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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I guess I'm kind of in the minority here, but I could see Weeden in the late 1st round. If Cleveland doesn't take Tannehill in round 1, I could see them drafting Weeden at #22 overall. I like Weeden and feel he would excel in a Mike Martz/Norv Turner down the field passing attack. Lots of people say he's a systems qb, but he has the size, arm strength and accuracy to succeed in the NFL. You also can't look past the fact that he beat all the top qb's head-to-head (Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Foles, Jones). That says something. His age does knock him down a bit, as it should. But I see talent there.
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Old 04-16-2012, 02:40 PM    (permalink
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pitchers blow out their arms from throwing too many breaking balls not fastballs. fastballs, along with changeups, put the least wear and tear on the arm.
with that said, fastballs can destroy you if your pitching mechanics are bad. it puts more and more stress on your entire body the harder you throw.
I think this is the point where people misunderstand. Weeden being a baseball prospect/draftee/minor guy by itself isn't the problem. The fact that injuries to his throwing arm derailed that career is. He suffered significant and permanent damage to his throwing arm. This is a medical fact.

Add on the fact that he was both a QB and pitcher in highschool and also has two years as a college QB with over 500 attempts in both years and it is simply a fact that he has not only more wear than any other QB prospect but most likely more than an other QB that will be 29 or younger next year in the NFL.

That is a huge concern. NFL teams are going to significantly worry that he'll take a hit to that already weakened shoulder and his career will be over or, an even more likely scenario, his cap will be Chad Pennington. Would you spend a 1st round pick to have Chad Pennington for 6-7 years? Or would you go for one of the other guys who have an equal chance to flame out but much higher upside?

No team will draft him in the 1st. I'm betting he goes 4th or 5th.
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Old 04-16-2012, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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I don't have a problem with Weeden in the late 1st, simply because after the top four quarterbacks, everyone else is a major project or career backup.
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Old 04-16-2012, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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meh. it wouldn't remotely surprise me to see him go in the first. but i think any team that pulls that trigger is making a mistake.
Yeah, I guess I'm more talking value.

After last year and the Ponder/Gabbert/Locker debacle nothing involving QBs going higher than they deserve would surprise me. I probably like Weeden as much as I liked any of those guys, which isn't saying much.
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Old 04-16-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I guess I'm more talking value.

After last year and the Ponder/Gabbert/Locker debacle nothing involving QBs going higher than they deserve would surprise me. I probably like Weeden as much as I liked any of those guys, which isn't saying much.
Those guys at least had more potential, Locker for obvious reasons, Gabbert because if you could help him locate his balls he has all the tools and isn't 28 and Ponder because he had comparable tools to Weeden's with 6 more years to his career.
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Old 04-16-2012, 08:16 PM    (permalink
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ive been sayin he goes to cleveland at 22 for awhile as well
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Old 04-16-2012, 08:22 PM    (permalink
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Does anyone actually think that when Tannehill is 29 that he won't be at least as good as Weeden will be as a rookie? If the Browns wanna take a QB, take the one you rate higher in Tannehill even if it means spending a top 10 pick. Don't waste a pick on a 29 year old rookie QB in the range where franchise QBs are seldom found. If they're not sold on Tannehill, they should save their top picks and use them on other positions.
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Old 04-17-2012, 01:50 AM    (permalink
Inspector71
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If the Browns take Weeden, Heckert and Holmgren will be looking for Jobs in 2014. And I will kick my puppy.
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Old 04-17-2012, 02:06 AM    (permalink
niel89
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If the Browns actually wanted Weeden why wouldn't they just wait and grab him at 37? No team between 23 and 36 needs a QB, and I highly doubt that a team would trade up for him.
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Old 04-17-2012, 02:18 AM    (permalink
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He'll be drafted by the Green Bay Packers.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:22 AM    (permalink
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If the Browns actually wanted Weeden why wouldn't they just wait and grab him at 37? No team between 23 and 36 needs a QB, and I highly doubt that a team would trade up for him.
I expect at least two teams would consider trading up for him. Its cheap enough if you want him. Also dont rule out a good team wanting a good back up, say New Orleans. Brees is not getting younger. With the rookie salary plan, you can afford that.

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Old 04-17-2012, 07:37 AM    (permalink
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@FUNBUNCHER and Donnie D

I believe that both of your arguments have equal merit; actually your arguments have more to do with philosophy than anything else. It reminds me of the story about the big bull and the little bull.

Let's assume the Browns are intent on drafting a QB and a WR in the 1st round.

Scenario #1 - They take Ryan Tannehill at #4 and Stephen Hill at #22

Scenario #2 - They take Justin Blackmon at #4 and Brandon Weeden at #22

In the first scenario, Tannehill and Hill do little to improve the Browns in the 2012 season. Towards the end of the season, after being eliminated from the playoffs, Tannehill gets the starting nod and Hill finally shows flashes of greatness. In 2013, Tannehill is named the starter from day 1 and makes great strides, as does Hill. In 2014, both players break out and make Holmgren and Heckert looks like geniuses.

In the second scenario, Weeden beats out McCoy in camp and starts from day 1. Blackmon is the #1 receiver right off the bat. The team improves quickly and goes 9-7. In 2013 there is some improvement and the Browns make the playoffs for the first time since they came back into the league. In 2014, it is more of the same and they realize that Weeden is always going to be a 3,000/21/15 QB and Blackmon is always going to be a 70/900/6 guy.

These scenarios suggest that all players live up to their potential as we see it now. The wild card is whether or not Tannehill and Hill actually live up to their potential. They both have a higher likelihood of busting than their counterparts. However, if they do achieve their ceiling, they have the potential to be much better as well.

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Old 04-17-2012, 08:17 AM    (permalink
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Weeden clearly beats out McCoy because he's 28 and Tannehill doesnt because he's not, amiright?
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