Mafia Discussion - Page 98

njx9 · 05-13-2012, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

while yes, he still doesnt necessarily help mafia

i dunno. i feel like there have been at least a couple of games on here where the SK had a fairly massive impact. the lotr game, for instance, would've been over WAY sooner, except that the SK's did a good job of picking off townies. well. the SK's and TBW.

Dr. Gonzo · 05-13-2012, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Job Reborn

Again, I'm not questionning this particular game. Geez, I already stated I didn't read the DBZ game. The games tend to favor town, though, we can't really deny it when town has won like 90% of the time and most times with about 6 to 8 people alive.

I would also keep in mind that people are getting better at these games so it should become more balanced. The town is more likely to get a higher number of 'good' players than the mafia so that skews things but I imagine as people become more experienced the discrepancy between people's skills will shrink and we will see some more mafia wins.

ImBrotherCain · 05-13-2012, 05:07 PM

For those who havent seen i have opened the sign ups for a 20 man vampire game

njx9 · 05-13-2012, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Job Reborn

Statistically, he has the same chance of hitting a mafia that town has of lynching one, effectively working has an extra Day every day he's alive, and therefore helping town.

wait, what? for any starting number set, he's going to hit town fairly frequently targeting randomly, and his aim would be to winnow down the town before they win. i don't see any way, unless he gets extremely lucky, that it's a helpful role for the town; otherwise the town would've let jbond live in the last game.

CJSchneider · 05-13-2012, 05:11 PM

Leave it to you guys to make me a character that had....

an android for a wife.

Job Reborn · 05-13-2012, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njx9

wait, what? for any starting number set, he's going to hit town fairly frequently targeting randomly, and his aim would be to winnow down the town before they win. i don't see any way, unless he gets extremely lucky, that it's a helpful role for the town; otherwise the town would've let jbond live in the last game.

It is. If everyone acts randomly, the town will have a 25-30% chance of lynching mafia. The serial killer during the night? exact same odds. Mafia then kills a townie. That's like having two Days for one Night. Now, yes, the odds of town will get better of hitting a mafia with the investigations and such, but so does the SK's if he wishes to take out a mafia, which he will have to do at some point : He doesn't want the mafia to have too much of a hold on the town either. +He's bound to hit a mafia guy even if he wouldn't want to. So yeah, SK acts has an additional lynch day, in favor of the town.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njx9

wait, what? for any starting number set, he's going to hit town fairly frequently targeting randomly, and his aim would be to winnow down the town before they win. i don't see any way, unless he gets extremely lucky, that it's a helpful role for the town; otherwise the town would've let jbond live in the last game.

the thing with jbond:

Not killing him but someone else would prolly mean we kill another good guy.

Serial Killers, while not necessarily only good for the town, doesnt benefit the mafia.

njx9 · 05-13-2012, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

the thing with jbond:

Not killing him but someone else would prolly mean we kill another good guy.

Serial Killers, while not necessarily only good for the town, doesnt benefit the mafia.

for the bold (the first bit), do you mean the town kills another good guy? i don't disagree at all. but the second bit is where i disagree, at least after the lotr game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Job Reborn

It is. If everyone acts randomly, the town will have a 25-30% chance of lynching mafia. The serial killer during the night? exact same odds. Mafia then kills a townie. That's like having two Days for one Night.

i'm with you so far...

Quote:

Now, yes, the odds of town will get better of hitting a mafia with the investigations and such, but so does the SK's if he wishes to take out a mafia, which he will have to do at some point : He doesn't want the mafia to have too much of a hold on the town either. +He's bound to hit a mafia guy even if he wouldn't want to. So yeah, SK acts has an additional lynch day, in favor of the town.

but this doesn't seem to follow from the first part.

in answer to both, i guess i'll have to think about it for a bit. i agree that there's a point where the SK would no longer be helping the mafia and would conceivably be helping the town, since he'd want to keep the town and mafia fairly balanced to prevent either side 'winning' before he could kill enough people to win himself. but... meh. maybe it's really obvious and i just didnt' get enough sleep.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:24 PM

most of the time, the SK is as scared of the mafia as the town is, since they can kill him too. this has been somewhat limited lately since he is bulletproof more often then not, but yea.

A serial Killer will most likely kill randomly. He doesnt care if he kills mafia or town. The only time he cares is when mafia is about to win. therefore him killing randomly is just as good as the towns random kill.

and yea the first part was: it is either jbond, someone who is clearly evil or we randomly pick someone, who is most likely good.

Todd Bertuzzi · 05-13-2012, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Job Reborn

It is. If everyone acts randomly, the town will have a 25-30% chance of lynching mafia. The serial killer during the night? exact same odds. Mafia then kills a townie. That's like having two Days for one Night. Now, yes, the odds of town will get better of hitting a mafia with the investigations and such, but so does the SK's if he wishes to take out a mafia, which he will have to do at some point : He doesn't want the mafia to have too much of a hold on the town either. +He's bound to hit a mafia guy even if he wouldn't want to. So yeah, SK acts has an additional lynch day, in favor of the town.

No, he doesn't. You say it acts as an extra day for the town but in reality it's just another night kill. Sure he takes out the odd mafia but for every mafia he takes out he also likely takes out 2-3 town members.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:27 PM

yes thats basically what town does at day. we take out about 2 town members per mafia

njx9 · 05-13-2012, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

most of the time, the SK is as scared of the mafia as the town is, since they can kill him too. this has been somewhat limited lately since he is bulletproof more often then not, but yea.

i don't think i've seen a game where he wasn't (or i wasn't paying attention and just assumed he was), so maybe that's where i'm having a hard time getting my head around it. if the sk is bullet proof, he only has to fear investigators.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njx9

i don't think i've seen a game where he wasn't (or i wasn't paying attention and just assumed he was), so maybe that's where i'm having a hard time getting my head around it. if the sk is bullet proof, he only has to fear investigators.

being bulletproof started with the lotr games i believe.

While he does only fear investigators, he still doesnt know mafia and will just kill randomly.

Job Reborn · 05-13-2012, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd Bertuzzi

No, he doesn't. You say it acts as an extra day for the town but in reality it's just another night kill. Sure he takes out the odd mafia but for every mafia he takes out he also likely takes out 2-3 town members.

And for every mafia lynched by the town, how many townies are killed? Yeah, most of the time two, sometimes three.

Mafia also normally has an investigator, so he has to end up fearing the mafia too.

Ngatachance92 · 05-13-2012, 05:32 PM

When I was the SK, a lot of times I targeted the people who seemed to present the most value to the town and who I deemed would be the most likely to out me. Well, not the most valuable as I figured they would be protected, but usually the most vocal.

njx9 · 05-13-2012, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

being bulletproof started with the lotr games i believe.

While he does only fear investigators, he still doesnt know mafia and will just kill randomly.

i mean, you say that, and it's probably true initially. but i think some of y'all have pretty good odds after a couple of weeks, of picking town/mafia if you want to target one over the other. even if you're right 66% of the time, those are still really good odds for picking out the side you want to hurt.

CJSchneider · 05-13-2012, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ngatachance92

When I was the SK, a lot of times I targeted the people who seemed to present the most value to the town and who I deemed would be the most likely to out me. Well, not the most valuable as I figured they would be protected, but usually the most vocal.

I tried to mix it up between important and inactive. Going after active people all the time is a good way to get busted imo.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ngatachance92

When I was the SK, a lot of times I targeted the people who seemed to present the most value to the town and who I deemed would be the most likely to out me. Well, not the most valuable as I figured they would be protected, but usually the most vocal.

yea, but being most vocal could just as well be a mafia member.

CJSchneider · 05-13-2012, 05:35 PM

Tell me again what the masons had the ability to do?

CashmoneyDrew · 05-13-2012, 05:35 PM

Think how hard it is to be a town-aligned vigilante. You have to be super cautious not to kill anyone too important on the good side. I think I luckily avoided that for the most part.

Job Reborn · 05-13-2012, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ngatachance92

When I was the SK, a lot of times I targeted the people who seemed to present the most value to the town and who I deemed would be the most likely to out me. Well, not the most valuable as I figured they would be protected, but usually the most vocal.

That's one way to go. The other is to pick off low-priority targets in order to avoid possible watchers and doctors.

Gay Ork Wang · 05-13-2012, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJSchneider

Tell me again what the masons had the ability to do?

we were allowed to talk at night. no one talked.

CJSchneider · 05-13-2012, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

we were allowed to talk at night. no one talked.

I would have done well in that role.

SuperPacker · 05-13-2012, 05:41 PM

Why didn't APS and Jensen talk?

Also, i really wanna be a Serial Killer in one of these. Having the ability to kill and being on your own against the whole town/mafia sounds great!

CJSchneider · 05-13-2012, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker

Why didn't APS and Jensen talk?

Also, i really wanna be a Serial Killer in one of these. Having the ability to kill and being on your own against the whole town/mafia sounds great!

The first time I was an SK, I didn't like it - most likely because I didn't understand it. The second time I enjoyed it much more. I learned a great deal from having played it twice.