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Old 04-14-2012, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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Default Guys Going Lower Than We Think?

I think Kendall Wright could go a little lower (say late 1st/early 2nd). He has some size/speed concerns and those tend to let players fall a little more than they should. Although i guess this is part me wanting him in a 49ers uniform on draft day.

Who do you think falls?
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Old 04-14-2012, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Lamar Miller, Miami
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Old 04-14-2012, 04:49 PM    (permalink
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Riley Reiff - I like him, but guys more in the know seem to suggest that he'll go more in the late 1st range, and he's not attending the combine.

Justin Blackmon - Considered a top 6 lock by a lot of people, I think he slips out of the top 10

Jerel Worthy - 3rd round or later

Brandon Thompson - Slips into the 3rd day

Kendall Wright - If he goes in the 1st round he'd be the shortest WR to do so since Santana Moss in 2001. I think he sneaks in but not in the mid-1st.
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Old 04-14-2012, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
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Old 04-14-2012, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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Upshaw, Kuechly, Still, Ingram roughly in order of size of slide.

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Old 04-14-2012, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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Riley Reiff - I like him, but guys more in the know seem to suggest that he'll go more in the late 1st range, and he's not attending the combine.

Justin Blackmon - Considered a top 6 lock by a lot of people, I think he slips out of the top 10

Jerel Worthy - 3rd round or later

Brandon Thompson - Slips into the 3rd day


Kendall Wright - If he goes in the 1st round he'd be the shortest WR to do so since Santana Moss in 2001. I think he sneaks in but not in the mid-1st.
Both of these would seriously surprise me.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:19 PM    (permalink
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Riley Reiff - I like him, but guys more in the know seem to suggest that he'll go more in the late 1st range, and he's not attending the combine.

Justin Blackmon - Considered a top 6 lock by a lot of people, I think he slips out of the top 10

Jerel Worthy - 3rd round or later

Brandon Thompson - Slips into the 3rd day


Kendall Wright - If he goes in the 1st round he'd be the shortest WR to do so since Santana Moss in 2001. I think he sneaks in but not in the mid-1st.
I'm sorry, but if any of these things happen I will officially call you the draft wizard.

Reiff will not get out of the top half of Round One, Blackmon might slip slightly, but I don't think there's any way he makes it out of the top ten. Worthy will probably go in the first round, very early in the second at worst, and Thompson should be a second rounder.

There's being bold, and then there's just being off.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:24 PM    (permalink
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I think all the QBs after Tannehill might be in for a long wait. There simply aren't enough teams that desperately need to fill the QB position, and none of the other guys are good enough yet to beat out the incumbants. We might not see the fourth QB go until round three.

I think Jonathan Martin might fall out of the first round. Dontari Poe could be available in the twenties, and if there aren't any NT-needy teams in that range, he could fall even further.

There is a chance Kendall Wright falls out of the first, but I doubt it. The DT and WR classes have major depth, so don't be surprised if there are some notable names left on Day Three.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:03 PM    (permalink
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Riley Reiff could be the poster boy of this. It is a fact that some view him as a guard, that could really hurt his stock badly. Jonathan Martin could be in that class too - some view him as a top 20 pick I think, some as a 2nd or 3rd rounder it seems. He could slide.

Kendall Wright will be the 3rd receiver drafted and probably a top 20 pick ( I would be shocked if my Brownies passed on him if he's available at 22). He won't slide. I think people are saying this based on his combine, but he ran a decent time at the combine and has the best game tape of any receiver in this draft....and teams view gametape as about 80-90% of an evaluation.

I agree that Blackmon might slip though - not that far, but he might go between picks 8 and 13 potentially.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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The best method of predicting a slide is to attempt to anticipate the number of teams which could realistically be interested in the services of that player. Not many teams seem to value running backs these days which led to Mark Ingram's slide last season so any running back prospect outside of Trent Richardson could be set to slip; Doug Martin is one player whose value may not be as high as anticipated. Aside from that, a number of pass rushers could fall down the draft boards (Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw into the second round, Cam Johnson and Jake Bequette much further than many are projecting.) Jerel Worthy will likely be selected lower than his grade would suggest because he is more limited defensively in terms of what schemes he would excel in whereas more scheme-versatile defenders are less likely to slip. Depth at wide receiver and defensive end could also persuade teams to delay making a choice at those positions.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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1. Justin Blackmon
2. Quinton Coples
3. Dontari Poe
4. Stephon Gilmore
5. Zach Brown
6. Lamichael James
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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I wouldnīt be all that surprised if Quentin Coples and/or Michael Brockers slipped out of Top-20 and maybe even a bit further.
Beyond round 1 I could see guys like Muhammad Sanu, Audie Cole and Chris Polk go a round later than expected.
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:03 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I'd agree with Coples and Brockers. But since nobody else has said it, I suppose I'll be the first to mention Janoris Jenkins. With all the character concerns, I think there's a serious possibility (mind you, not probability) that he falls to the third round.
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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I wouldnīt be all that surprised if Quentin Coples and/or Michael Brockers slipped out of Top-20 and maybe even a bit further.
Beyond round 1 I could see guys like Muhammad Sanu, Audie Cole and Chris Polk go a round later than expected.
Also, good call on Chris Polk. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well.
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Old 04-14-2012, 08:28 PM    (permalink
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Also, good call on Chris Polk. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well.
I can actually see Polk going earlier than expected. He doesn't have great skills in any one area but he has a nice game and he is one of the better blockers in this draft.
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Old 04-14-2012, 08:36 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I'd agree with Coples and Brockers. But since nobody else has said it, I suppose I'll be the first to mention Janoris Jenkins. With all the character concerns, I think there's a serious possibility (mind you, not probability) that he falls to the third round.
I put his name in the thread opposite of this for this exact reason. I think he's a firt round talent teams would be dumb to pass up on.
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Old 04-14-2012, 08:48 PM    (permalink
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I can actually see Polk going earlier than expected. He doesn't have great skills in any one area but he has a nice game and he is one of the better blockers in this draft.
I think a lot of people really liked Chris Polk until they compared him to Martin and Turbin, and realized they are head and shoulders above him. I don't see him going until day 3.
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Old 04-14-2012, 10:05 PM    (permalink
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1. Trent Richardson
2. Ryan Tannehill
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Old 04-14-2012, 10:17 PM    (permalink
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I see Weeden free falling, like Tom Petty.
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:07 AM    (permalink
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1. Trent Richardson
2. Ryan Tannehill
These are two names I least expect to fall from the top 10. You have them falling based on what?
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:26 AM    (permalink
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Richardson is a top 6 LOCK. Richardson, Luck, Griffin, Kalil = locks to go that high. Claiborne as well pretty much.
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Old 04-15-2012, 12:54 AM    (permalink
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Richardson is a top 6 LOCK. Richardson, Luck, Griffin, Kalil = locks to go that high. Claiborne as well pretty much.
Its kind of sad that things like this need to be said so late into the process.
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Old 04-15-2012, 01:43 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by keylime_5 View Post
Richardson is a top 6 LOCK. Richardson, Luck, Griffin, Kalil = locks to go that high. Claiborne as well pretty much.
Wouldn't be so sure on Claiborne. The top three are obvious right now and then Richardson either goes to the Browns or Bucs. If Tannehill does go #4 the Claiborne has a chance to fall to Carolina.
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Old 04-15-2012, 02:23 AM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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A lot of people are saying Chandler Jones will go in the 15-25 range, I don't think he'll go until at least pick 35.

If history shows us anything, it's that mock drafters tend to overvalue a lot of defensive lineman and they go a little lower when the real draft comes around.
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Old 04-15-2012, 04:09 AM    (permalink
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Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Lamar Miller, Miami
I see Upshaw going in the 2nd round, he's just sooo slow and sloppy looking....
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