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Old 02-18-2014, 09:32 AM    (permalink
detroit4life
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Unfortunately, the WR position is loaded this year, a tremendously deep and talented group. Given those factors, I doubt anybody will trade up for Watkins, normally I would agree just not this year.

Yeah, I just didn't have Martin on my list but Mayock has obviously pointed out that mistake. I think drafting an OC is extremely important and the 3rd round has produced an awful lot of all pro centers. Also, they would be solid backups as OG's should the need arise.
I think St. Louis would be the one team willing to make the move up. Possibly the Jets as they desperately need some weapons on the offensive side of the ball. I think there is a large drop off between Watkins and the rest of the class and while the class is loaded, Watkins seems to be the one can't miss guy in the class. Rams would have to be intrigued at the possibility of having Tavon and Watkins as their top 2 weapons. I actually wouldn't be shocked if they take Watkins in a trade down out of the 2 spot although I do agree that they will go LT first.

Depending on what happens in FA and round 1 and 2 I certainly see a OC as a very viable option in the 3rd. It is without a doubt a large impending need. But I think we will need to have added 2 WRs a Safety and possibly even a LB before we start looking at C. I think the depth in this class will push a very good WR or 2 into the 3rd and if Landry or Richardson or Adams (or anyone else) is sitting there in the 3rd we could easily take another WR. The team needs more than just a WR2 and at that point we are talking about some very good value.

The entire situation depends on the moves we make. I'm still waiting for the second round of cuts that should include Leroy Harris, if for some reason we keep him we can remove C from the list for this year IMO. But there is no reason for us to keep him. Assuming they get a WR in FA and fill one other need, OC in the 3rd makes a lot more sense.
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:48 AM    (permalink
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At the rate that Pryor is rising I don't expect him to be there past 20. While I'd love to be able to get him, I can't imagine we'd be willing to give up our 2nd and 3rd to get him.
Agreed. I would love to come out of this draft with Pryor but I'm not sure we're going to be in a position to profitably take him. He could show himself to be worthy of the #10 pick but at this point I think he's too raw in coverage and there will probably be a better prospect for us at that spot. Trading back into the 1st doesn't seem realistic, especially in the range where Pryor will likely go. It would probably cost us a future 1st round pick in addition to a pick this year. This year's draft seems to be incredibly deep so I'd like to keep as many picks as we can and possibly even look to trade down and collect extra picks as opposed to giving up picks for a specific player.

With that said, I wouldn't be upset if our first 3 rounds went Pryor, WR, WR depending on what we do in free agency. As others have stated there are so many variables that can change the outlook of the draft at this point and the fact that we have a ton of positions that could be upgraded means it's incredibly difficult to make any type of draft plan at this point. Maybe Mike Evans blows up the combine and a team like St. Louis decides it wants a big WR to pair with Tavon Austin. That could allow us to trade down a few spots, pick up an extra pick, and still take Pryor. No matter what happens this is going to be an interesting draft for the Lions.
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Old 02-18-2014, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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The more I watch this guy the more I like him. Honestly wouldn't be upset if we grabbed him at 10 if we couldn't trade down and Khalil Mack was gone.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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FA will still impact our draft as well and I don't think you can leave Safety off the list. No talent in round 2 so if we need a replacement, it will have to come in round 1. Ditto for TE, if we resign Pettigrew, Ebron won't get consideration, if we don't, he rises way up on our draft needs.
I don't see S as a consideration at 10. I think the safeties will go in the 15-25 range. There are some interesting names in rounds 2 and 3 as well. Ward and Bailey off the top of my head.

I don't think we keep Pettigrew, but I don't think that affects our interest in Ebron either way.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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I do love Pryor though and will be watching where he ends up. He'd be a great fit for us.
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Old 02-18-2014, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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This draft might be the deepest draft of all time, so adding extra picks should be the strategy. All time is obviously a subjective thing, but I say that because of the record number of underclassmen who declared.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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I haven't given up hope on Watkins dropping to 10, but obviously other teams have to believe that another player benefits them more. Im hoping Taylor Lewan and some of the QBs have a great combine and Sammy has a good but not great combine.

If Watkins isn't available (80% chance he is gone), the next best option is the trade-down into the 15-20 range. Picking up a 2nd round pick, or a high 3rd would be perfect. But those trades are nebulous things and you have to find a trading partner. So I think a 20% chance of trading down is fairly generous.

:. Ive had to get my head around it that the worst possible scenario is probably the most realistic. Watkins is gone. Dennard could be gone. (Those are the only clear cut #1s (IMO Dennard is the clear cut best CB because of his ability to play physically and has the best instincts) and there is a wide gap between them and the next tier down.) I see either one as BPA if they are available at #10.

TE doesn't have a clear cut #1, though most experts have Ebron narrowly fending off ASJ and Amaro. I like those three almost equally, depending on how they would be utilized in the new offense. All 3 are matchup mismatches for defenses are 1st rounders. But there isn't that great of a gap to the next tier down...so they could slide towards the bottom of the round for that reason. I really think these three TEs have a better grade than the next best WR (Evans, Lee and Benjamin ... plus Beckham, Robinson and Matthews) or CB (Gilbert or Verrett).

Here's the thing though...and this is a blessing and a curse depending on your viewpoint. There just isn't a huge difference in value between the #10 pick and #20. It seems that the dropoff in talent, not including the QBs (who should all be 2nd rounders) is at around #6. So, they need 4 teams drafting above them to reach for a QB or OT, so they can get an elite talent...or they pick from a fairly even value base (which wont be truly impactful)...or they find a team that falls in love with a player or become desperate to fill a position of need to trade with.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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It's so deep that, as much as I was against the idea at first, if we could trade Suh for a second and a fourth - I'd probably pull that trigger due to his cap hit.

Would love for Oakland to get interested in Suh. Switching 5 for 10 and adding a second and fourth would be wonderful.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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I don't know if they'd let us trade up, but you could probably get 2nds this year and next. You could target someone like Rod Streater or Denarius Moore in a trade too potentially.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:58 PM    (permalink
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Give me Moore a second rounder, a 4/5 rounder and next years second and I'll make that deal. Would kinda love that.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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Suh a Raider? That's too perfect.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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Let's play this out for fun...

Oakland trades 2, 4 and Streater for Suh.
Re-signs Houston.
Drafts Clowney or Mack.

I like it.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:26 PM    (permalink
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That would be a quick way to rebuild that DL, and defense overall.

Streater would be a nice fit for us opposite Calvin. Try like hell to get Donald with Oakland's 2nd rounder I say. Maybe CB in the 1st,WR in the 3rd and an interior OL and S in the 4th.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:33 PM    (permalink
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I'm a big fan of the defensive tackle from Princeton - could be there in the 4th.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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Can we please not even joke about trading Suh for a 2nd and 4th round pick......
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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Technically we are talking about two 2nd's, a 4th and a lot of cap space.

I used to recoil at the suggestion of even trading Suh for two 1st rounders, but someone asked me the question "How many games has Suh been the difference in turning a loss into a win?", and I really didn't have an answer that justified the contract.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:25 PM    (permalink
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If we go by that kind of thinking, we might as well trade Johnson and Stafford too and get a rookie QB and have a ton of cap room.

Even if we make the playoffs and bow out after 1 game, is that worth it? I'd much rather win a Super Bowl myself. I think Suh is a big part of that. Our cap situation will be terrible as long as we have the old CBA high draft picks as a part of our team.

Plus, who replaces Suh? Fairley is too inconsistent to be the main guy. Ansah and Taylor were productive because of Suh. There is no more DT depth. I don't think trading Suh is part of the solution.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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If we go by that kind of thinking, we might as well trade Johnson and Stafford too and get a rookie QB and have a ton of cap room.

Even if we make the playoffs and bow out after 1 game, is that worth it? I'd much rather win a Super Bowl myself. I think Suh is a big part of that. Our cap situation will be terrible as long as we have the old CBA high draft picks as a part of our team.

Plus, who replaces Suh? Fairley is too inconsistent to be the main guy. Ansah and Taylor were productive because of Suh. There is no more DT depth. I don't think trading Suh is part of the solution.
No not at all. I am not calling for a reboot of the franchise - not at all. I love Stafford and Megatron is a freak. Suh is at that level as well, but keeping all three salaries is going to put major stress on the other positions and I am just not sure that Suh, as great as he is, is a player that wins games.

Now I love the potential of what Suh can do, I'd love to see our defense use him more creatively than we have in the past and, in the right scenario, I think he can be that guy. I'd love nothing more than for Suh-Stafford-Megatron to be the franchise block for years.

But you absolutely have to consider trading him.

And this largely falls back to Suh, too. If Suh wants to be a part of Detroit, he can sign a contract that would make him the highest paid defensive tackle and guarantee him 50 million dollars in two years and still have a contract that the Lions can maneuver around. But if Suh doesn't want to play ball on his contract and instead get paid Mario Williams money, we can't afford it.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:45 PM    (permalink
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Yah, it really comes down to the fact that you might not be able to afford all 3. Stafford and Calvin aren't going anywhere, so you have to explore your options with Suh. In my ideal world we keep him, but I do think we have to have a reasonable ceiling on what we are willing to offer.

A starting WR, a high 2nd and high 4th is a pretty solid package, but you also have to think about the extra 15-20 million in cap space you'd have next year. You could end up adding 4-5 starting caliber players in exchange for Suh.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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I definitely think we should trade Fairley now if we aren't trading Suh. There's no way you can pay him in a couple years, so turn him into a cheaper, longer term asset(or 2).
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:55 PM    (permalink
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I think you need more for suh if the jets are able to get the #12 for Revis coming off a knee injury.

I'd be open to trading him but I'd want a lot more than that from him. Everyone on our defense gets worse the second we trade him. I truly think our best interest is keeping him.
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:02 PM    (permalink
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I'd want at least a mid first or higher + a top end young player for Suh.
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:24 PM    (permalink
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Trade him to Cleveland for #4 overall and Josh Gordon. Draft Sammy Watkins with the Cleveland pick, Our receiving corps is now Calvin, Gordon and Watkins. With #010 we draft Khalil Mack. Superbowl here we come.
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Old 02-19-2014, 01:36 AM    (permalink
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I'd want at least a mid first or higher + a top end young player for Suh.
With a 19 million dollar cap hit for us, even if we trade him, it just isn't going to happen. Revis, I believe was going to be a FA when they traded him, a whole different story. Because of his cap #'s, no team would have the slightest interest in a trade.

Suh's contract was established by the old CBA and any team that acquires him will have to pay him accordingly. Teams locked down by too many players signed under the old CBA are going to have serious cap problems and are in reality, stuck with those players till they are FA's, that is the only time you could trade them and even then, I believe there is a maximum % of pay that you can decrease their salary by.
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Old 02-19-2014, 06:00 AM    (permalink
myth
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 4
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myth hopes to escalate quickly but not get out of hand.
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I don't see a viable way the Lions trade Suh. Its like UFOs. Intellectually you admit that it's a possibility, but anyone who says they've seen one are suspected loonies.
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