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Old 03-22-2014, 05:58 PM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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Originally Posted by StorminNorman View Post
Id argue that was is key is less a dispropriately large contract but rather a disaprppriately high position group. You can afford to keep the Suhs if you one of your starting ends is making Young/Taylor money.

Its why I view DT as a draft need. We need to view Fairley as gone.
I'd kill to trade Fairley for solid value this offseason.
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Old 03-22-2014, 09:20 PM    (permalink
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"That depends on what your definition of 'is' is."
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Old 03-22-2014, 09:47 PM    (permalink
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Id like to trade F airley too, but I think we kinda get the best of both worlds.

I expect him to have a Haynesworth-like dominating contract year with someone overpaying him and us ending up with a comp 3rd rounder.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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The way I see it, you cannot replace him with what you could get in trade. Then, you have to look at what he gives you this year plus what you'll get if you lose him. I just don't see a trade being feasible.
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Old 03-23-2014, 01:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
What does this even mean?
I think he is just saying that it is extremely dangerous to pay non top priority positions, priority position money, it upsets your cap structure and that is why top teams avoid doing it.

When Mayhew drafted Suh, he had no choice but to give him the money a #2 pick was getting under the old CBA, that's the problem back then in drafting a non priority position that high, it is no longer a problem under the new CBA with rookie salaries capped.

Mayhew is simply caught between a rock and a hard place, Detroit stunk for so long that under the old CBA, they were always drafting high and those picks got money, they would never see today under the new CBA. It's a tough problem to fix if you want to retain those old CBA signees when they become FA's. They are all likely to resist a pay cut without testing the FA market.

Quote from fredderQuote

Yeah, this is similar to when IAC used the average salary for DTs to try to prove that Suh wasn't worth signing to a big contract. Most 4-3 OLBs, like DTs, aren't worth taking with top picks or signing to big contracts. However, the ones who are able to be productive pass rushers are absolutely worth those kind of investments. It's similar to a guy like Jimmy Graham being worth WR money because his production matches that of a high-end WR.

Unfortunately, it isn't similar to Graham, Graham's stats matches a top WR's stats, Suh's stats don't and never will. Where are his 12+ sack seasons that all great DE's produce, so you cannot pay him like a DE All Pro and in the end, all Graham got was top TE money anyway Show me one DT who puts up DE's #'s and I'll agree they are worth the money, but I just don't see any. The game has changed, once upon a time, DT's were a top priority position when the league was a run first one, today, it is a pass first league and DT's have lost their priority position and should never make DE money.

If you believe as I do, that cap structure is a key element in putting together a winning franchise, any team that risks that structure by overpaying for secondary priority positions, will have a hard time being a consistent winner.

I haven't failed to realize that both Seattle and San Fran have become 2 of the best franchises in football, simply because their QB's are paid on the cheap side, allowing a temporary window, when they can afford to have more studs on their team, a huge advantage over their opponents until FA rectifies their QB's salaries. That is going to bring both those franchises back to the pack. It just goes to show that cap structure is of paramount importance in today's NFL.

As for Barr, if he can give us 10+ sacks a year, I'd be happy to draft him at #10, rookie salaries are capped today and don't destroy a team's cap structure, until they become great and reach FA. It's a whole new ballgame from the old CBA.
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Old 03-23-2014, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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This past season Suh had 72 pressures (5 sack, 13 hits, 54 hurries) which was the 7th highest total among all defensive players this year. Only Robert Quinn (91), JJ Watt (85), Greg Hardy (83), Brian Robison (83), Gerald McCoy (80), and Tamba Hali (75) had more. He may not have finished many sacks last year but he was absolutely getting an elite level of consistent pressure on the QB. I think our god awful secondary probably limited some of his numbers this year.

Jimmy Graham is only being paid TE money because of the franchise tag and even then he's appealing the decision and will likely be paid somewhere in the middle of a TE and WR franchise tag. If he were to hit the open market somebody would have paid him WR money.

Also last year Geno Atkins had more sacks than any DE outside of JJ Watt so there's your DT that puts up DE numbers.

Finally, what is the average salary for 3-4 DEs? I assume it's quite a bit lower than 4-3 DEs because they usually don't offer as much of a pass rush. Do you really believe that JJ Watt isn't going to get paid like a top-tier 4-3 DE because of his ridiculous pass rushing numbers? The fact is that getting pressure on the QB is key for defenses these days and they'll pay the guys who can do it regardless of the position they play.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by StorminNorman View Post
Id like to trade F airley too, but I think we kinda get the best of both worlds.

I expect him to have a Haynesworth-like dominating contract year with someone overpaying him and us ending up with a comp 3rd rounder.
If that happens I'll be fine.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by weasel View Post
The way I see it, you cannot replace him with what you could get in trade. Then, you have to look at what he gives you this year plus what you'll get if you lose him. I just don't see a trade being feasible.
I think we can replace him internally to be honest. Its not like he's been dominant and our other holes are more pressing than DT.

We have

Suh

Mosley - great stuffing the run last year

Martin - Missed last year but started 27/32 games the 2 years before and is only 27

Fluellen - Has held down that 3rd/4th DT spot just fine the last few years.

Irvin - Just a body, but added to the mix this offseason

Jones - A DE who does his best work pass rushing from the DT spot.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I think he is just saying that it is extremely dangerous to pay non top priority positions, priority position money, it upsets your cap structure and that is why top teams avoid doing it.

When Mayhew drafted Suh, he had no choice but to give him the money a #2 pick was getting under the old CBA, that's the problem back then in drafting a non priority position that high, it is no longer a problem under the new CBA with rookie salaries capped.

Mayhew is simply caught between a rock and a hard place, Detroit stunk for so long that under the old CBA, they were always drafting high and those picks got money, they would never see today under the new CBA. It's a tough problem to fix if you want to retain those old CBA signees when they become FA's. They are all likely to resist a pay cut without testing the FA market.

Quote from fredderQuote

Yeah, this is similar to when IAC used the average salary for DTs to try to prove that Suh wasn't worth signing to a big contract. Most 4-3 OLBs, like DTs, aren't worth taking with top picks or signing to big contracts. However, the ones who are able to be productive pass rushers are absolutely worth those kind of investments. It's similar to a guy like Jimmy Graham being worth WR money because his production matches that of a high-end WR.

Unfortunately, it isn't similar to Graham, Graham's stats matches a top WR's stats, Suh's stats don't and never will. Where are his 12+ sack seasons that all great DE's produce, so you cannot pay him like a DE All Pro and in the end, all Graham got was top TE money anyway Show me one DT who puts up DE's #'s and I'll agree they are worth the money, but I just don't see any. The game has changed, once upon a time, DT's were a top priority position when the league was a run first one, today, it is a pass first league and DT's have lost their priority position and should never make DE money.

If you believe as I do, that cap structure is a key element in putting together a winning franchise, any team that risks that structure by overpaying for secondary priority positions, will have a hard time being a consistent winner.

I haven't failed to realize that both Seattle and San Fran have become 2 of the best franchises in football, simply because their QB's are paid on the cheap side, allowing a temporary window, when they can afford to have more studs on their team, a huge advantage over their opponents until FA rectifies their QB's salaries. That is going to bring both those franchises back to the pack. It just goes to show that cap structure is of paramount importance in today's NFL.

As for Barr, if he can give us 10+ sacks a year, I'd be happy to draft him at #10, rookie salaries are capped today and don't destroy a team's cap structure, until they become great and reach FA. It's a whole new ballgame from the old CBA.
SF pays two ILBs top money and their other highest paid player is a 3-4 DE who has never had 10 sacks. Neither position or sacks mean everything. Suh is one of the more dominant defensive players in the league and you pay market value for that. You always pay for elite players in their prime IMO, regardless of position. Unless of course the bidding gets out of control for some reason, like Mario Williams.
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Old 03-24-2014, 07:19 AM    (permalink
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Khalil Mack OLB incredible fit, value
Paul Desir CB 77 1/2. Inch reach, long corner, physical
Paul Richadson WR Lions like him. Better numbers than higher rated WR's
Marcus Martin C better if we get him now, than wait
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Old 03-24-2014, 07:28 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
SF pays two ILBs top money and their other highest paid player is a 3-4 DE who has never had 10 sacks. Neither position or sacks mean everything. Suh is one of the more dominant defensive players in the league and you pay market value for that. You always pay for elite players in their prime IMO, regardless of position. Unless of course the bidding gets out of control for some reason, like Mario Williams.
Couldn't have said it better myself. I think it's also worth mentioning that I don't believe we'll have to worry about Suh's work ethic after getting paid. I think he's just a guy who legitimately loves playing football and just so happens to get paid millions to do it. This isn't a Mario Williams or Julius Peppers type player where we have to worry about him shutting it down after a big payday. I think the Lions should feel pretty comfortable giving him a big contract and not having to worry about his play dropping off.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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SF pays two ILBs top money and their other highest paid player is a 3-4 DE who has never had 10 sacks. Neither position or sacks mean everything. Suh is one of the more dominant defensive players in the league and you pay market value for that. You always pay for elite players in their prime IMO, regardless of position. Unless of course the bidding gets out of control for some reason, like Mario Williams.
However, you can bet that Smith will be their highest paid player as soon as he reaches FA by a large margin. The rookie cap just changed how the system works till rookies reach FA. Kaep makes peanuts now, but we both know that won't be the case when he reaches FA as well. They can afford to pay their 2 ILB's and DE top dollars with their defensive stars making peanuts, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that when Smith and Kaep have to be paid big dollars, they have trouble retaining the services of their 2 ILBers and the DE.

I don't have a problem paying Suh top dollar, I just wouldn't pay him in excess of that like he is currently making and I'm not sure you can retain his services if you offer him less.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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His current cap number is a result of the old rookie contracts. It'll be easy to spread the guaranteed money that he still has on that deal over a long-term contract extension. He can sign a deal that will make him the highest paid DT in the league with a slightly higher cap number due to the guaranteed money that is still being paid out from his rookie contract. There's no way of avoiding paying that so really the Lions benefit from spreading it out and Suh shouldn't care since it's guaranteed. He has to know that he's not going to get anything above top DT money in FA so it's in his best interest to resign now and not risk an injury dropping his value. Really it's mutually beneficial for him to resign at this point.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Suh is on a 12 million per year contract now still. He should get somewhere between 11-13 million per year. Atkins got 11 million per. Lions have to deal with 9.7 and 9.8 million in restructure money in 2014 and 2015. They'll backload some base salary because of that but Suh will get a big signing bonus to make him happy.

Worst case IMO, 5 year 65 million extension (plus get to use 2014 last year to spread out bonus), 20 signing bonus, 10 million option bonus in 2015. 5 million base in 2014 then 1 million base in 2015. Cap numbers 18.8 (3.6 in room created), 16.7 in 2015 (Lions still under the cap a good bit) and 13.25 in (2016-2018, 7.25 base plus 4 signing bonus plus 2 roster bonus) and 9.25 million in 2015 (7.25 plus 2 million option bonus allocation).

This is a Suh friendly deal that is still manageable for Detroit. Suh gets 36 million guaranteed in this scenario. Ties Suh to Detroit through 2017 at least.
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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Couldn't have said it better myself. I think it's also worth mentioning that I don't believe we'll have to worry about Suh's work ethic after getting paid. I think he's just a guy who legitimately loves playing football and just so happens to get paid millions to do it. This isn't a Mario Williams or Julius Peppers type player where we have to worry about him shutting it down after a big payday. I think the Lions should feel pretty comfortable giving him a big contract and not having to worry about his play dropping off.
True, though I would say the 2 examples you used both continued to perform at a pro bowl level after signing big deals.
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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However, you can bet that Smith will be their highest paid player as soon as he reaches FA by a large margin. The rookie cap just changed how the system works till rookies reach FA. Kaep makes peanuts now, but we both know that won't be the case when he reaches FA as well. They can afford to pay their 2 ILB's and DE top dollars with their defensive stars making peanuts, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that when Smith and Kaep have to be paid big dollars, they have trouble retaining the services of their 2 ILBers and the DE.

I don't have a problem paying Suh top dollar, I just wouldn't pay him in excess of that like he is currently making and I'm not sure you can retain his services if you offer him less.
You have this idea that "what he is making" is 22 million dollars. Its not. Cap hits are high some years, low others. Its the average that matters. He averages around 12.5 and will likely get a similar number on his new deal. The most recent top DT to sign got 11. I did mention that if he started to ask for Mario Williams money I'd reconsider my position at the least.
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Old 03-24-2014, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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True, though I would say the 2 examples you used both continued to perform at a pro bowl level after signing big deals.
Well I didn't want to mention Albert Haynesworth lol. What I really meant by my comment is that Suh's motor isn't questioned like Williams' and Pepper's. Those guys get by on sheer physical talent but don't always go 100% all the time. I don't think we have to worry about Suh giving us inconsistent effort after signing a big deal. We shouldn't have to worry about any kind of dip in his play.

Also I agree that we should just ignore Suh if he seriously tries to get Mario Williams type money. Tell him there's no chance any team is willing to offer him that kind of contract and that he has no leverage in those types of negotiations. As I said, it's in his best interest to sign a long-term extension now at a salary that makes him the highest paid DT. There's no room for him to make any more than that next year and all waiting does is put him at risk of getting injured/having a down year and hurting his overall value.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:55 PM    (permalink
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This past season Suh had 72 pressures (5 sack, 13 hits, 54 hurries) which was the 7th highest total among all defensive players this year. Only Robert Quinn (91), JJ Watt (85), Greg Hardy (83), Brian Robison (83), Gerald McCoy (80), and Tamba Hali (75) had more. He may not have finished many sacks last year but he was absolutely getting an elite level of consistent pressure on the QB. I think our god awful secondary probably limited some of his numbers this year.

Jimmy Graham is only being paid TE money because of the franchise tag and even then he's appealing the decision and will likely be paid somewhere in the middle of a TE and WR franchise tag. If he were to hit the open market somebody would have paid him WR money.

Also last year Geno Atkins had more sacks than any DE outside of JJ Watt so there's your DT that puts up DE numbers.

Finally, what is the average salary for 3-4 DEs? I assume it's quite a bit lower than 4-3 DEs because they usually don't offer as much of a pass rush. Do you really believe that JJ Watt isn't going to get paid like a top-tier 4-3 DE because of his ridiculous pass rushing numbers? The fact is that getting pressure on the QB is key for defenses these days and they'll pay the guys who can do it regardless of the position they play.
Actually, I believe that it doesn't matter in the NFL what defense you play in, DE's are paid at a certain level and the top ones get franchise type money. That's the type of thing that pissed off Graham who I think finally signed for TE money. Mind you, if you aren't a top one at any position, your leverage is limited.

The position you play in the NFL really establishes your pay scale not the scheme you play in. That is why agents will never allow say a college CB, to be switched to Safety, till they absolutely fail as a CB. That type of switch can dramatically impact your future pay.

The way the NFL pays players is just nuts to begin with, the owners have all the leverage except maybe with QB's, they guarantee as little as possible but make it seem like the players are getting a lot more than they are likely ever to see. Every owner in professional sports would absolutely love to have the NFL pay structure and CBA.

Football owners have always had their thumb hard pressed on player salaries, they want to avoid the mess that exists in pro baseball at any cost.
The rookie salary cap introduced in the new CBA was great for the owners but in actuality, it screwed the players. How often do you even see a franchise tag used today, the owners are avoiding it because for the most part, they have enough leverage to sign veterans for lower than the franchise tag and since rookie contracts no longer push up the cost of franchising, it won't be long before the vets are making less than they did under the old CBA. The owners have effectively eliminated the upward pressure on football salaries that rookie contract used to provide.

Look at Byrd, the All Pro Safety for the Bills, he wanted to make 9 million a year and he got his money, but really it is only $600,000 more than the next highest paid Safety, hardly earth shattering when you look at what Max is demanding in baseball and his will be all guaranteed, not some mythical amount that the player will never see.

I wouldn't pay Suh more than say 10.5 million a year, because if you do, you are going to have to cut a solid starter somewhere else because you cannot afford him in your cap #'s. We have to pay Suh till he is a FA, but if his demands exceed 10.5 million, however it is structured, he will be a bad signing IMO and it will impact on the overall strength of the Lions.

Man, the NFL makes it so difficult to pay certain players, it is just pure craziness and why the position you draft had better be a priority position in round 1.

There is certainly more to being a GM than just drafting, pay structure is of great importance to a modern team and whow to those teams who don't pay attention to their cap structure.

Anyways, enough of this rant, on with football.
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Old 03-24-2014, 07:53 PM    (permalink
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Lions received two 4th round compensatory picks. I don't understand, but it sounds good.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:17 PM    (permalink
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Lions received two 4th round compensatory picks. I don't understand, but it sounds good.
Lost: Cliff Avril, Gosder Cherilus, Justin Durant, Drayton Florence, Sammie Lee Hill

Gained: Reggie Bush, Jason Jones, Glover Quin

The guys you lose cancel out the guys you gain, worst to first. So JOnes,Quin and Bush cancelled out Durant,Florence and SLH. That leaves us losing Avril and Cherilus, who were deemed worthy of 4th round picks based on previous performance and maybe contract size.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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That's really great news because this draft is 4 rounds deep, should be able to get something out of those 2 picks.
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:00 PM    (permalink
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Definitely gives us some flexibility. That's 3 extra 4ths in two years now. Pretty solid. Gotta capitalize now. We snagged Taylor with the comp pick last year, so that was nice.
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Old 03-25-2014, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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That's awesome we got two 4ths. Not having the 5th is a little eased now with three 4th round picks. Can move around now *though can't trade the comp picks) if they want or just stay put and enjoy a deep draft. Hope we find anohter Devin Taylor, Sammie Lee Hill 4th instead of Ronnel Lewis or Tahir Whitehead (used future 4th for a 5th).
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Old 03-25-2014, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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I haven't given up on Whitehead yet I have to say, but he sure hasn't shown enough yet at the same time.

But yah, having 8 picks and 5 in the first 4 rounds is pretty nice after going in with 4 in the first 5 rounds.
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:55 PM    (permalink
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Agreed whitehead is more an unknown still in year 3 and had to learn the true lb position. Them going out and getting Macintosh raised my eyebrows some on their feelings toward whitehead last august
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