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Old 03-31-2014, 11:09 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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We might even see 4 QBs go ahead of us now. Carr is getting a ton of hype to Cle,Oak and Minny and Minny supposedly likes Bridgewater a ton too. 4 QBS, 2 OTs and 2 pass rushers going in the top 10 would make things pretty interesting. That would mean we only have to worry about the Bills. They'd probably take Watkins, but it only takes one guy rising. Lewan,Gilbert,Evans,Ebron and Barr would probably be your main option to jump into the top 9. I doubt it happens, but its hard to tell in this draft. Other teams might be thinking WR in round 2 too though.

Shoot, maybe even Mack could fall to us. I doubt it, but this draft might line up just right. Say if it goes - Bortles,Robinson,Clowney,Manziel,Carr,Matthews,Wat kins,Bridgewater,Evans or something like that.

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Old 03-31-2014, 11:12 AM    (permalink
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I think it would be a huge mistake to trade up for Watkins. Personally I don't see him as being worth a top 10 pick but even if he is I don't think it's smart for us to trade up for a guy that is more or less a luxury pick when we have legitimate needs that can be filled with similarly graded players without having to move up. If Watkins is there at 10 and he's the BPA then I don't think it's that bad of an idea. However, if we give up a 2nd and 3rd rounder to get him I think we'd see the ramifications of that decision long-term with a lack of depth and talent at the other positions.
I agree that he's not enough of a need for us to trade up for. I definitely think he's worth a top 10 pick though. This kid is one of the more special WR prospects I've seen. Probably top 5 in the last 10 years. I mean, he's basically Tavon Austin with an extra 40 lbs and 5 inches. That's filthy. His combination of hands,quickness and acceleration is ridiculous.
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Old 03-31-2014, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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I agree that he's not enough of a need for us to trade up for. I definitely think he's worth a top 10 pick though. This kid is one of the more special WR prospects I've seen. Probably top 5 in the last 10 years. I mean, he's basically Tavon Austin with an extra 40 lbs and 5 inches. That's filthy. His combination of hands,quickness and acceleration is ridiculous.
He has grown on me over the course of the season. He showed an ability to make contested catches that I questioned heading into the season. Personally, I just have high standards for top 10 WR prospects, especially in this draft class. It's not that I think he should go 20th or something I just don't think he's quite as special of a prospect as others and there are a lot of prospects in this draft that are at a similar level and play more premium positions. If this was last year I'd say he was worth a top 3-5 pick though and definitely would've preferred him over Ansah. I'd say he's right on the edge of being worth a top 10 pick but he'd definitely be in the top 5 if you disregarded position.

I originally thought you were crazy for saying he was in the top 5 WR prospects of that last 10 years but then I realized there just haven't been many special talents in the past decade. Going back to 2004 I'd say he's #5 on my list behind Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, and Julio Jones. I think Julio Jones is quite a bit ahead of him though so it's a distant 5th.

If he's available at #10 and we take him I certainly won't be outraged but I still believe that trading up for him would be a big mistake.
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Old 03-31-2014, 12:08 PM    (permalink
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I put all 4 of those guys ahead of him as well, but he's on their tier IMO.
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Old 03-31-2014, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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I put all 4 of those guys ahead of him as well, but he's on their tier IMO.
I just don't see what everyone else seems to be seeing I guess. I think he's a great WR prospect but definitely not on Julio Jones' level, let alone Calvin, Fitz, or AJ. Julio Jones has similar athleticism but with far more ability to attack the ball in the air and make contested catches.

After talking about this though I changed my mind about him being a top 10 pick. I still maintain that he's behind the other prospects that I have similar grades on because he plays the least valuable position among them. However, there aren't 10 players that carry similar grades and I'd rank him above the guys that play more valuable positions but are lower graded prospects. I think he fits in around #9 or 10 on my board.
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Old 04-01-2014, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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Saying he's not Julio as a prospect isn't an insult. Julio isn't in this or most drafts though. People got a little spoiled because AJ and Julio were in the same draft IMO. Watkins blows away the Crabtree/Austin types. I expect his impact in the league to be similar to D.Thomas, but he's more ready coming into the league
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Old 04-01-2014, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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I agree 100%. I think Watkins is in his own tier. He's definitely not on Julio's level IMO but, like you said, he's far better than guys like Crabtree. When I looked back at the past 10 drafts it was shocking how big of a gap there was between Julio Jones and the next best WR prospect. Watkins fits in that space and I'd say he's closer to Julio Jones than he is to the prospects below him.

I'd obviously love to have him in our offense. However, I'd rather have a slightly worse prospect at #10 and still have our 2nd and 3rd round picks than have Watkins be our only pick in the top 3 rounds. I think we're in agreement on that point.

It's unfortunate that the Bills are picking right before us, as I don't think it's possible that they pass on Watkins at #9. Our best hope would be to trade up with Minnesota, if Watkins is still on the board, and grab him at 8. I'm not sure how much that would cost us but Minnesota should be open to it if there's a QB they like, as it's obvious that the Bills wouldn't take him at 9. If we could pull that off at the cost of just our 3rd rounder I'd be cool with that. There are so many ways the top of the draft can shake out though so it's hard to predict what our situation will look like at that point.
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Old 04-01-2014, 12:51 PM    (permalink
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I doubt MInnesota wants to see us get Watkins to pair with CJ and Tate. They have to try and defend us twice a year.
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Old 04-01-2014, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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With all the Carr love, lets say he falls to 10(which is likely). Cleveland calls offering 26 and 37. Do you say yes? Its a big jump down, but I think you have to. Your potential options include Lee,Beckham,Cooks,Fuller,Dennard,Pryor,Shazier and a few others. 37 is a pretty nice pick to have too
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Old 04-01-2014, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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With all the Carr love, lets say he falls to 10(which is likely). Cleveland calls offering 26 and 37. Do you say yes? Its a big jump down, but I think you have to. Your potential options include Lee,Beckham,Cooks,Fuller,Dennard,Pryor,Shazier and a few others. 37 is a pretty nice pick to have too
Again, it's really hard to answer that because of the uncertainty of how the top picks will shake out. If there's a top-tier talent still available (Jake Matthews probably being the most likely) then I think you probably just take him. However, I'd say it's pretty likely that trade would be good for us. I'd much rather have a combination like Beckham/Verrett/Ward than taking Gilbert at #10 and grabbing a WR/S or something like that with our 2nd.

Haha yeah I was just looking at the team who was drafting before the Bills and didn't really process that it was Minnesota. Scratch that idea I suppose.
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Old 04-01-2014, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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I think Matthews is pretty unlikely to fall myself, but I see your point.
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Old 04-02-2014, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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I think Vikings go Gilbert. Gilbert,Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn in the slot
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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That would be interesting. Definitely possible. That would make our pick pretty interesting. Worst case scenario is probably. Clowney,Mack,2 OTs, 3 QBs,Watkins and Gilbert being the top 9. That leaves us with Evans,Ebron,Barr and maybe Dennard or Ha Ha. I could live with any of those picks, but none of them give you that feeling of damn, can't believe we got him at 10.
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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It's scenarios like this that make me VERY open to that proposed trade with Cleveland. I think we could easily find prospects very similarly graded to the ones you mentioned, all the way down at 26. IMO there's about 20 prospects, after the top 8 guys, who carry similar grades. If one of those top guys isn't there at ten, excluding QBs obviously, I'd jump at the opportunity to trade down.

If those were our options and we couldn't trade down I'd probably take Barr assuming my DC had a plan to maximize his skill set.
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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Yup, me too and I think its reasonably realistic. I might do it for something like 26 a 3rd and a 4th if they didn't want to give up the 2nd too. I mean, if Cleveland likes Carr and could land both him and Watkins, they'd be looking pretty great. Gordon,Watkins,Cameron,Benjamin and that Shanahan running system. Damn. THey also have Hoyer if Carr isn't ready to start immediately.
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Old 04-02-2014, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Yup, me too and I think its reasonably realistic. I might do it for something like 26 a 3rd and a 4th if they didn't want to give up the 2nd too. I mean, if Cleveland likes Carr and could land both him and Watkins, they'd be looking pretty great. Gordon,Watkins,Cameron,Benjamin and that Shanahan running system. Damn. THey also have Hoyer if Carr isn't ready to start immediately.
There is no way I would move down from 10 to 26 without their 2nd round pick being included. There may not be a huge difference between 10 and 16 but there is a huge difference between 10 and 26. To do that and just add a 3rd and 4th round pick? Absolutely not.
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:20 PM    (permalink
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To each his own I guess. I really value 3rd and 4th round picks in general and even more so in this draft. The 2nd rounder would be ideal, but I think we're a better team adding 3 guys in total, #26 a 3rd and a 4th(or future 3rd, which is always nice). I really like a lot of guys who would potentially be available at 26 too, as I mentioned above. You also consider using the 4th to move back up a few slots if needed.

and we are talking about Cleveland's picks, which are top 5 in each round.
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:22 PM    (permalink
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I do think that trade would be a little too extreme but I disagree about there being a huge difference between 10 and 26 in this draft. I don't think there's a huge gap between the 10th best and 26th best prospects. If we're looking at receiver, and assume that Watkins is gone, I'd much rather grab a guy like Beckham at 26 than Evans at 10. The same is true for CB if Gilbert isn't there. I'd much rather grab a guy like Verrett at 26 than draft Dennard at 10. Safety is probably the one exception but even there I'd rather grab Jimmie Ward in the 2nd than draft HaHa at 10.

The point is that there are very plausible scenarios where there won't be a great fit for us at #10 and we'd be better off trading down. The depth of this draft, at the positions we need in particular, would make it worthwhile for us to give up a little value to trade back IMO. I'd definitely do it for 26 and their 2nd and 3rd rounders. I'd even do it for just 26 and their 2nd.
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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I understand but dropping down 16 picks in the first round for a 3rd and a 4th makes little sense to me.

If the scenario mentioned above happens we are still able to take Evans, Lewan, or Barr and get a player that would be top 10 in most other drafts.

The trade is just not enough value for me to even consider it. You can get a high impact player at 10, you cannot say that about the player you will get at 26. Not to mention Mayhew has a terrible history with mid round picks and loading up on those spells for a disaster.

I'd trade down but I wouldn't want to go past #16-18. Once you get past Evans, Ebron, Barr, Mosley, Denard, Haha, Lewan and Pyror there is a steep drop off. At the very least we need to walk away with one of these guys IMO.
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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We've snagged some solid players in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Warford and Taylor last year, Levy and SLH in the past. Fox wasn't too bad either when he was healthy.

Either way, I think the big difference in our opinions is in how we view the quality of the draft. I view the 1st round to be very deep and the 3rd and 4th rounds to be more filled with quality players than normal, so I'd be all about it. If I can add two picks and snag Shazier instead of Barr or something like that I do it in a second.

8-26 I figure these players go, roughly. Carr,Gilbert,Evans,Ebron,Barr,Lee,Lewan,Sua'filo,D ennard,Fuller,Ha Ha,Pryor,Beckham,Cooks,Z.Martin,Shazier,Mosley,Don ald and K.Martin. Something like that at least. You could also inlcude Ealy,Jernigan,Moncrief,Ford,Roby and Verrett.

I'd be pretty comfortable landing almost any of those guys(obviously a few I don't prefer) at 26 if it got us 2 more mid rounders in this deep draft.
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Old 04-03-2014, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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Yeah no way move to 26 without a 2nd round pick at least. It's not about the prospects, it's about the value of the pick. 10 is worth alot especially if Cleveland wants a QB. That ups the price for a QB.

And Mayhew said he only sees 5 elite players in this draft. I think he may trade up actually. I know not everyone believes this, but I think the FO thinks we don't have many holes. Alot depends on Houston/Slay/other CBs and Jones/Taylor having nice 2014 seasons and staying healthy.
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Old 04-03-2014, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maybe This Year Mayhew View Post
Yeah no way move to 26 without a 2nd round pick at least. It's not about the prospects, it's about the value of the pick. 10 is worth alot especially if Cleveland wants a QB. That ups the price for a QB.

And Mayhew said he only sees 5 elite players in this draft. I think he may trade up actually. I know not everyone believes this, but I think the FO thinks we don't have many holes. Alot depends on Houston/Slay/other CBs and Jones/Taylor having nice 2014 seasons and staying healthy.
I wouldn't have a problem with a move up to the top 5 either. I think there are definitely only 5 elite players. Matthews,Robinson,Clowney,Mack and Watkins. I personally might throw Manziel in there, but that's another discussion.

As for going to 10 to 26, you're right, its about value. Value changes every year. Last year in a thinner draft, Dallas moved from 18 to 31 for just a 3rd. This is a higher pick, but a stronger draft. I don't think a 3rd and a 4th is unfair value by any means.
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Old 04-03-2014, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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Dallas got robbed.

From 2013 draft Round 1 trades
Round one[edit]
1.Jump up ^ No. 3: Oakland → Miami (D). Oakland traded this selection to Miami in exchange for Miami's 2013 first-round selection (12th) and second-round selection (42nd).[source 1]
2.Jump up ^ No. 8: Buffalo → St. Louis (D). Buffalo traded this selection and a third-round selection (71st) to St. Louis in exchange for St. Louis' 2013 first- (16th), second- (46th), third- (78th), and seventh- (222nd) round selections.[source 1]
3.Jump up ^ No. 12: Miami → Oakland (D). see No. 3: Oakland → Miami.[source 1]
4.Jump up ^ No. 13: Tampa Bay → New York Jets (PD). Tampa Bay traded this selection and a conditional fourth-round selection in 2014 (that could become a third-round selection) to the Jets in exchange for cornerback Darrelle Revis.[source 2]
5.Jump up ^ No. 16: St. Louis → Buffalo (D). see No. 8: Buffalo → St. Louis.[source 1]
6.Jump up ^ No. 18: Dallas → San Francisco (D). Dallas traded this selection to San Francisco in exchange for San Francisco's 2013 first- (31st) and third- (74th) round selections.[source 1]
7.Jump up ^ No. 22: multiple trades:
No. 22: Washington → St. Louis (PD). Washington traded this selection, first- and second-round selections in 2012 and their 2014 first-round selection to St. Louis in exchange for St. Louis' 2012 first-round selection, which they used to draft Robert Griffin III.[source 3]
No. 22: St. Louis → Atlanta (D). St. Louis traded this selection and a seventh-round selection in 2015 (via New England)[9] to Atlanta in exchange for Atlanta's 2013 first- (30th), third- (92nd), and sixth- (198th) round selections.[source 1]
8.Jump up ^ No. 25: Seattle → Minnesota (PD). Seattle traded this selection, its seventh-round selection (214th), and their 2014 third-round selection to Minnesota in exchange for wide receiver Percy Harvin.[source 4]
9.Jump up ^ No. 29: New England → Minnesota (D). New England traded this selection to Minnesota in exchange for Minnesota's 2013 second- (52nd), third- (83rd), fourth- (102nd), and seventh- (229th) round selections.[source 5]
10.Jump up ^ No. 30: Atlanta → St. Louis (D). see No. 22: St. Louis → Atlanta.[source 1]
11.Jump up ^ No. 31: San Francisco → Dallas (D). see No. 18: Dallas → San Francisco.[source 1]
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Old 04-03-2014, 09:52 PM    (permalink
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Value is all over the place as your post shows. If a 2nd got Miami into the top 3, a high 3rd and high 4th in a deeper draft should get you from 26 to 10. Toss in a 7th to close the gap if you really need to
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Old 04-03-2014, 10:26 PM    (permalink
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I would trade up for Clowney, Mack, or Watkins if it didn't cost me a future first.

But I would still have a hard time parting with our other picks. It ultimately depends on what we'd need to give up.
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