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Old 04-10-2014, 12:21 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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First, you have to find a trading partner, every team will say they are willing to move down, but there are always conditions. Sure, Houston, Rams, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland would be willing to move down for the right price, so if you are willing to overpay for their pick, they'll consider it, but the offer will have to be fantastic and the team trading down will have to feel they will still get a strong reward in prospects for doing so.

Farley hasn't proved squat as a NFLer and his value in a trade is low, probably worth no more than a 3rd rounder. Nobody cares where a player was drafted, they only care about results and Fairley hasn't panned out as a stud and he is going to be a FA next year, which could even drop his value to a fourth.

If Mayhew is absolutely set on Watkins, he will have to trade up to the #2 overall pick to completely insure he gets him. that's 2600 points on the Value Chart, The 10th pick is worth 1300, so you have to come up in excess of 1300 points to get a trade. Fairley is worth 205 points and maybe less, could be only 109 points if he can only fetch a 4th rounder. You'd have to offer another 2nd rounder this year and a 1st rounder next year to get even close to a trade.

Look, Mayhew may want Watkins but I'd rate the likelihood of a trade up as slim, unless he feels his job is on the line and he's willing to sell out the franchise to keep it for a couple of more seasons. I just hope he isn't going into the draft feeling that pressure.
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Old 04-10-2014, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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First, you have to find a trading partner, every team will say they are willing to move down, but there are always conditions. Sure, Houston, Rams, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland would be willing to move down for the right price, so if you are willing to overpay for their pick, they'll consider it, but the offer will have to be fantastic and the team trading down will have to feel they will still get a strong reward in prospects for doing so.

Farley hasn't proved squat as a NFLer and his value in a trade is low, probably worth no more than a 3rd rounder. Nobody cares where a player was drafted, they only care about results and Fairley hasn't panned out as a stud and he is going to be a FA next year, which could even drop his value to a fourth.

If Mayhew is absolutely set on Watkins, he will have to trade up to the #2 overall pick to completely insure he gets him. that's 2600 points on the Value Chart, The 10th pick is worth 1300, so you have to come up in excess of 1300 points to get a trade. Fairley is worth 205 points and maybe less, could be only 109 points if he can only fetch a 4th rounder. You'd have to offer another 2nd rounder this year and a 1st rounder next year to get even close to a trade.

Look, Mayhew may want Watkins but I'd rate the likelihood of a trade up as slim, unless he feels his job is on the line and he's willing to sell out the franchise to keep it for a couple of more seasons. I just hope he isn't going into the draft feeling that pressure.
I wouldn't go to 2 for him

I think Fairley would be valued as more than a 3rd. Saying he hasn't done squat is silly. He's had stretches where he's been flat out dominant. He flashed the ability to be a top 5 DT. He has his warts, no doubt about it, but teams value highly talented 26 year old DLs pretty highly. There isn't a DT in the 2nd round close to Fairley's talent level.

As you continually note, but for some reason fail to mention in this post, this draft is very deep. For that reason, there is basically zero chance that anyone actually get chart value to move down.

In the end, the more realistic scenario is waiting to see if Watkins,Mack or Clowney falls to 5 and then trying to move up. Its a 500 point move up and Fairley would cover most of that. Even as a 2nd rounder he's worth half of that and as I stated, you aren't getting chart value in this draft or in general for a non QB typically. Fairley and a 3rd would be fantastic value for Oakland. If I"m the Lions, I then try to trade my 2nd for 2 thirds or a 3rd and a 4th.


and in regards to Clowney, failing to live up to expectations and lacking proper work ethic all has to be put into perspective. Moss had a poor work ethic but will be a HOFer due to his ridiculous talent. Aldon Smith has been a chubby alcoholic since the day he set foot in the NFL pretty much and manages to dominate as a pass rusher. Clowney has a very high floor, even if some of the work ethic stuff is true.

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Old 04-10-2014, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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and as a final point, no way you trade Fairley for a 4th or 4th round value. You keep him at that point. Fairley has received a positive grade on Profootballfocus every year he's b been in the league and was rated 5th overall in 2012. Lets not talk about him like he's a throwaway scrub. Guys like him get a bare minimum of 5 mil per year in free agency.

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Old 04-10-2014, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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Not quite sure why you are saying Fairley hasn't produced. He has played pretty well actually and has pretty good stats to back it up. He just hasn't hit the level of play consistently to be an elite DT.
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Old 04-12-2014, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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Would you guys trade #10, Fairley and a 2015 second for Watkins or Clowney.
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Old 04-12-2014, 09:16 PM    (permalink
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In a heartbeat for Clowney or Mack. I wouldn't do it for Watkins, but I wouldn't cry if we did it either.
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Old 04-13-2014, 10:35 PM    (permalink
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and as a final point, no way you trade Fairley for a 4th or 4th round value. You keep him at that point. Fairley has received a positive grade on Profootballfocus every year he's b been in the league and was rated 5th overall in 2012. Lets not talk about him like he's a throwaway scrub. Guys like him get a bare minimum of 5 mil per year in free agency.
If he's the 5th best DT in the NFL, why in the world would we trade him when I don't think he's reached his peak just yet. Of course, if he's the 5th best DT in the NFL where are all the Pro Bowls nominations?? The NFL's new top 100 for 2014 is about to come out, he should be on that list if he indeed is that good, but I'd bet real money, he gets very little in the way of votes for the NFL's top 100. Why????

Does anybody here really believe he is a top 5 DT in the whole NFL, I know I don't, not even close IMO.

You seem willing to throw him away, so do you really believe he's anywhere close to the top 5????
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Old 04-13-2014, 10:48 PM    (permalink
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Would you guys trade #10, Fairley and a 2015 second for Watkins or Clowney.
Of course any draftnik would, but the fact is, you cannot get either player for that price, try #10 plus Fairley plus our second and next year's 1st and around a 4th, then you would be in the ballpark, which is why I believe a trade up that high just isn't in the cards.

Now, if Mayhew is on notice that it is a make or break year if he wants to continue as our GM, after all, he no longer has Ford around to save him and the new owner, the younger Ford, may not be as kind to another bad season, then Mayhew may attempt to make a real splash to save his job and give away the kitchen for a shot at surviving.

Who knows really, whether the younger Ford will start to bring in his own people and get rid of the deadbeets who are throughout this organization because the elder Ford just didn't like getting rid of incompetents he personally liked. We could be in for some real tangible changes for this whole organization.
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Old 04-13-2014, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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If he's the 5th best DT in the NFL, why in the world would we trade him when I don't think he's reached his peak just yet. Of course, if he's the 5th best DT in the NFL where are all the Pro Bowls nominations?? The NFL's new top 100 for 2014 is about to come out, he should be on that list if he indeed is that good, but I'd bet real money, he gets very little in the way of votes for the NFL's top 100. Why????

Does anybody here really believe he is a top 5 DT in the whole NFL, I know I don't, not even close IMO.

You seem willing to throw him away, so do you really believe he's anywhere close to the top 5????
Are you really using Pro Bowl nominations and the NFL top 100 as the measures of success?????

He said that ProFootballFocus rated him as the #5 DT in 2012. That is a factual statement no matter how much you argue it. I know you're not one for advanced statistics but I'll take their rating system over the opinion of random fans.

Nobody here is saying that he's the 5th best DT in the entire NFL. You came to that conclusion on your own. However, he has been an above average or better starting DT every year he's played. He also has shown the potential to be a near elite player at his position. That's all he was saying and in his mind that makes him worth more than a 4th round pick. You can choose to agree or disagree with that opinion but the rest of what he said was fact.
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Old 04-14-2014, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Are you really using Pro Bowl nominations and the NFL top 100 as the measures of success?????

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It may not be perfect but it is a heck of a lot more reliable than ProFootballFocus.
He said that ProFootballFocus rated him as the #5 DT in 2012. That is a factual statement no matter how much you argue it. I know you're not one for advanced statistics but I'll take their rating system over the opinion of random fans.

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It may be factual but does it mean anything????????????
Nobody here is saying that he's the 5th best DT in the entire NFL. You came to that conclusion on your own. However, he has been an above average or better starting DT every year he's played. He also has shown the potential to be a near elite player at his position. That's all he was saying and in his mind that makes him worth more than a 4th round pick. You can choose to agree or disagree with that opinion but the rest of what he said was fact.
So, on a team that has basically stunk for the last 2 seasons resulting in us getting the #4 and #10 selections in the draft, Fairley has been an above average or better starting DT with the potential to be elite, I must have missed that, because I never saw him play close to that level. I'd say he has been average and occasionally above average with the potential to be very good but never elite, but I guess that is just our differing opinions.

If you go back to my original post I put his worth as likely that of a third rounder with only a slight possibility that he would fall to the worth of a 4th rounder. I read today that for the Rams #2 pick, it would likely cost 2 first rounder and 2 second rounders and I suggested it would cost 2 first rounders, Farley and a second rounder this year and a 4th rounder in 2015, so I don't think I'm out of the ballpark in what it will cost to absolutely guarantee we get Watkins.
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Old 04-14-2014, 10:36 AM    (permalink
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The cost of a pick 24 days before the draft is obviously going to be extremely high. That's why trades happen on draft day or maybe a day or 2 before hand. That is the cost of trading up for a franchise QB. But with the #1 pick being a toss up, no deal will be made until St. Louis is on the clock.

Of course the demands are high. But if noone meets those demands, which few teams will, what will St. Louis eventually take in order to move down. They don't want to pick at #2, and while they will if they need to, they will have plenty of offers well below their current demands that will be very tempting to take.
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Old 04-14-2014, 10:37 AM    (permalink
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If he's the 5th best DT in the NFL, why in the world would we trade him when I don't think he's reached his peak just yet. Of course, if he's the 5th best DT in the NFL where are all the Pro Bowls nominations?? The NFL's new top 100 for 2014 is about to come out, he should be on that list if he indeed is that good, but I'd bet real money, he gets very little in the way of votes for the NFL's top 100. Why????

Does anybody here really believe he is a top 5 DT in the whole NFL, I know I don't, not even close IMO.

You seem willing to throw him away, so do you really believe he's anywhere close to the top 5????
1st of all, I said he was a top 5 DT one year, 2012. Overall he's been a positive ranking, more in line with a solid to plus starter than an elite DT.

Throw him away? I said I was willing to trade him for around 2nd round value, maybe 3rd depending on the situation. That isn't poor value or throwing him away, especially in a draft that you have said you believe offers 2nd round value in the 3rd round. That was the point of my post, I don't want to trade him for a 4th or likely even a 3rd because he is more valuable for us just to keep. However, his value is limited because we only have one more year of control and we have a lot invested at DT thanks to Suh.
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Old 04-14-2014, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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So, on a team that has basically stunk for the last 2 seasons resulting in us getting the #4 and #10 selections in the draft, Fairley has been an above average or better starting DT with the potential to be elite, I must have missed that, because I never saw him play close to that level. I'd say he has been average and occasionally above average with the potential to be very good but never elite, but I guess that is just our differing opinions.

If you go back to my original post I put his worth as likely that of a third rounder with only a slight possibility that he would fall to the worth of a 4th rounder. I read today that for the Rams #2 pick, it would likely cost 2 first rounder and 2 second rounders and I suggested it would cost 2 first rounders, Farley and a second rounder this year and a 4th rounder in 2015, so I don't think I'm out of the ballpark in what it will cost to absolutely guarantee we get Watkins.
I'm not even going to argue about the accuracy of a system that led Jeff Saturday to be voted to the Pro Bowl despite being benched that season and left off Richard Sherman.

Are you really arguing that Fairley can't be an above average DT because the Lions have sucked? There's no denying that Suh has been a top 5 DT over that period and he plays for the same awful Lions team. Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the NFL and he's still on a terrible Lions team. Your arguments are getting pretty weak at this point.

Just to get off this argument, I'd say that there's a difference between trying to guarantee we get Watkins and trying to trade up for him in general. Teams generally have a large set of strategies for a draft that cover different scenarios. It could be that they're willing to target Watkins if he falls to #6 but they aren't willing to trade up to #2 for him. If he gets taken before that they can just say ok and stay put at 10 but if he starts to fall they're already prepared to make an offer to the Falcons at #6. The Lions aren't going to know who's going to available at different parts of the draft so they need to be flexible and prepared for basically anything. I'm sure that in 2011 the Falcons had a backup plan in case Julio Jones was taken before #6 just as we can have a backup plan in case Watkins gets taken before the spot we're willing to trade up for him. At this point it's not a guarantee that Watkins is going #2 to the Rams.
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Old 04-14-2014, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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I'm not even going to argue about the accuracy of a system that led Jeff Saturday to be voted to the Pro Bowl despite being benched that season and left off Richard Sherman.

Are you really arguing that Fairley can't be an above average DT because the Lions have sucked? There's no denying that Suh has been a top 5 DT over that period and he plays for the same awful Lions team. Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the NFL and he's still on a terrible Lions team. Your arguments are getting pretty weak at this point.

Just to get off this argument, I'd say that there's a difference between trying to guarantee we get Watkins and trying to trade up for him in general. Teams generally have a large set of strategies for a draft that cover different scenarios. It could be that they're willing to target Watkins if he falls to #6 but they aren't willing to trade up to #2 for him. If he gets taken before that they can just say ok and stay put at 10 but if he starts to fall they're already prepared to make an offer to the Falcons at #6. The Lions aren't going to know who's going to available at different parts of the draft so they need to be flexible and prepared for basically anything. I'm sure that in 2011 the Falcons had a backup plan in case Julio Jones was taken before #6 just as we can have a backup plan in case Watkins gets taken before the spot we're willing to trade up for him. At this point it's not a guarantee that Watkins is going #2 to the Rams.
Well, those are certainly possibilities and maybe they are prepared to wait to see how the draft plays out. I'm only saying that if Mayhew truly wants Watkins, he'll have to make a move for the #2 overall pick, since starting at that point is the only sure way to guarantee getting him. If he isn't concerned with not getting him, then your scenario is quite reasonable.

Actually, unless a trade offer is overwhelming prior to draft day, teams like the Rams prefer to wait till the draft, because they are then in a position to play off one bidder against another under extreme time pressure and teams will usually up their ante as the clock is ticking.

I'm just getting the feeling that Mayhew may be determined to get Watkins, it could all be a smokescreen, you never know. As I mentioned earlier in another post, we don't have a clue on how safe his job is under the younger Ford, he could be willing to pay a king's ransom for Watkins for all we know, if he feels it might enable him to keep his job. There could possibly be a whole new dynamic taking place with the Lions having a new owner, I doubt the younger Ford had much of a say in the hiring of Mayhew, so anything is possible.
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Old 04-14-2014, 11:47 PM    (permalink
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The Rams will definitely wait until they are on the clock to make a trade. I hope we don't go up to #2 unless it costs only a future 1st and 10 or if its more its for Clowney.
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Old 04-15-2014, 06:25 AM    (permalink
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Mack, Watkins and Clowney are worth trading up to draft. What we give depends on the player and the team we trade with. Regardless of whom we traded up for, we are not going to trade #10, our 2015#1, a second, a fourth and Fairley. Five players for one isn't going to happen.
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Old 04-15-2014, 09:27 AM    (permalink
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The Rams will definitely wait until they are on the clock to make a trade. I hope we don't go up to #2 unless it costs only a future 1st and 10 or if its more its for Clowney.
Yeah, the only player I'm willing to give up a sizable amount of picks for would be Clowney. I'd be pretty upset if we gave up a Julio Jones type set of picks to move up and grab Watkins. He's not quite that kind of talent IMO.

IMO the Lions aren't going to be trading Fairley unless they were to receive a 2nd round value on him. I also doubt any team is willing to give that much up for him so I expect he'll be with the team this season. The Lions stand to gain a lot by keeping him around. He should be highly motivated in his contract year and then, assuming he has a good season, we can get a solid compensatory pick when he leaves in free agency. I don't think it's worth trading him for a 3rd or 4th round value when you're expected to get solid production from him this year and still get that kind of pick when he leaves.

I'm really starting to think that the #2 spot is not where the Lions are thinking about trading up to. I'm not sure who else they'd be able to trade with but for some reason I feel they're hoping to be able to trade up for Watkins/Clowney/Mack at a different spot. I've heard rumors that Oakland is looking to trade down so maybe that's the spot. It wouldn't guarantee them a specific prospect but if you believe there are around 5 "elite" players in the draft there's going to be at least one still available at that spot. The price to trade up would be much more reasonable at that point. I actually would really like trading up at that point for any of those guys assuming the price is something close to #10 and our 2nd round pick. We'd probably have to include more if Clowney was still on the table but even then it would likely still be less than the Julio Jones deal that I said I'd be willing to give up for Clowney.

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Old 04-15-2014, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Agree with just about everything you said Weasel and Fredder
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Old 04-15-2014, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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It could be similar to the 2011 NFL draft where there's elite talent at the top and then a sizable drop-off. How much would we have been willing to give up to go from Fairley to Green/Julio/Patrick Peterson/Aldon Smith(before the character concerns)? If that's how Mayhew views the top of this draft it would make a lot of sense to try hard to trade up and target one of those guys.
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Old 04-15-2014, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Yah, he did try to move up for Petersen. By the same token, guys like Robert Quinn were around later in the round.
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Old 04-16-2014, 10:14 AM    (permalink
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Quinn was my pick that draft. Of course, Fairley was not supposed to be there.
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Old 04-16-2014, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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I think Mack is my choice this year.
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Old 04-16-2014, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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I would prefer Mack over Clowney simply due to scheme fit. Our defense is no longer going to be rushing 4 as was the system under schwartz. Austin is going to want to blitz and bring pressure from different looks and disguises. Mack fits a big hole at OLB and has the ability to blitz and play the pass very well. He brings the versatility we need at LB while filling a hole that we have had for 3+ years.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be complaining about clowney, but I think Mack is the perfect fit for our system under Austin.
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Old 04-16-2014, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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I am really falling hard for Ryan Shazier as well if we want a more traditional LB who is also capable of a lot of blitzing. I wouldn't mind trading say, Evans to the Steelers and taking Shazier at 15. I probably wouldn't blink if they took him 10th. I currently have him above guys like Gilbert,Ha Ha and Mosley. Not Barr though.
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Old 04-16-2014, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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I would prefer Mack over Clowney simply due to scheme fit. Our defense is no longer going to be rushing 4 as was the system under schwartz. Austin is going to want to blitz and bring pressure from different looks and disguises. Mack fits a big hole at OLB and has the ability to blitz and play the pass very well. He brings the versatility we need at LB while filling a hole that we have had for 3+ years.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be complaining about clowney, but I think Mack is the perfect fit for our system under Austin.
I haven't really been thinking about the defense that Austin will bring with him. The only time he was a defensive coordinator was at Florida in 2010 and I'm not really familiar with the type of defense he ran there. I actually like our LB corps but if he intends to send them on blitzes I'm not sure we have the players to do it. As you said that would make Mack, or even Barr if we can't trade up and he's available at #10, great options. Creating pressure will be a huge priority this season so the value/need is there for us to take one of those 2 guys.
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