Cudders' 2012 NFL Draft Manifesto

[Cudders]

Apologize for the absurd length and chaotic structure of the post, but with the draft just around the corner, I wanted to get some thoughts I’ve had on this class down before Thursday night. Thanks to those that take the time to skim or even read most of it. The bolded sentence is the general topic of that section for indexing purposes. Of course, discussion is much appreciated!

There are eight premier prospects, a dozen or so in that next group, and then a bunch of interchangeable pieces until the mid-to-late second. The top eight (in no order) are Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, David DeCastro, Fletcher Cox, Luke Kuechly, and Morris Claiborne. I am very confident in each of those players’ ability to consistently perform at a Pro Bowl or better level in the NFL. The next group of a dozen or so prospects, highlighted by Justin Blackmon, is all fairly clumped together in terms of value. After that, I don’t see much difference between picks twenty and fifty. Which, in the bottom half of the first round, it isn’t uncommon for prospects to fall short of a solid first round grade.

The gap between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III hasn’t closed. Luck is the superior prospect. He might not have the jaw-dropping measurables, but he’s still special because of his rare mental makeup and so much of projecting quarterbacks to the NFL is predicated on that. In terms of football aptitude, Luck notches top marks in all categories. He’s immersed within his offense, given the freedom to be active pre-snap, calculated through progressions, smart with the football, adaptive to situations, and a proven anticipation passer. His overall field generalship is remarkable considering his age and experience. But Luck combines those traits with the textbook mechanics of an NFL veteran, precise ball placement, and an underrated arm. He has all the attributes of a top-tier quarterback. At worst, he’s someone like Matt Ryan, who is someone that is still good enough to win with in this league.

Now, that’s not to discredit Robert Griffin III. In a normal draft cycle, RGIII is the prohibitive favorite to be the first overall pick. Love most of the elements of his game. Obvious arm talent, nice deep ball, impressive ball location, natural touch, makes throws on the run, comfortable ripping it in limited space, strong work ethic, seems to be a smart kid with a level head, and that’s without mentioning his athletic gifts, although he’s more of a long-strider that eats up ground than an elusive runner that makes defenders miss.

From fit perspectives, I think both prospects are going to their best destinations. Luck is the more streamlined passer at this point and I have more confidence in him maximizing the mediocre supporting cast. But I love the marriage of Shanahan and RGIII, too. My biggest concern with RGIII was his tendency to drop his eyes and stare at an oncoming rush before reacting. With Shanahan, that concern is alleviated some because he likes to move the pocket around and put pressure on defensive fronts with an assortment of bootlegs. It’s still a bad habit that needs to be cut out of his game, but he is going to an environment that won’t make him a station quarterback and exacerbate the problem. The other issues with RGIII are overblown to me. He can’t control what offense his college coaches run. All he can do is execute what is asked of him. His familiarity with intermediate concepts might be underdeveloped, but those routes weren’t staples in Baylor’s passing game, so it’s unrealistic to expect a complete mastery of them.

Tannehill’s arm talent and skill set is underappreciated. It’s popular to rip into Tannehill, but I’m a bigger fan than most. Forget where he should be drafted. Sure, in the past, rawer quarterbacks with high upsides like Tannehill might have fallen to the mid-to-late first or later. That NFL is long gone though. The importance of the position has increased even more since then and the new rookie cap has minimized financial risk. If a team wants a quarterback, it needs to be aggressive. Otherwise, it will spend a long time waiting for opportunities to fall in their laps.

That said, Tannehill is a better prospect than Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. His arm talent jumps off the screen when watching him. He pushes the ball downfield and challenges defenses outside the hash marks in college. He shows a rough understanding of throwing with anticipation. He has a natural pocket presence that’s more advanced than RGIII at this stage. He has deceptive athleticism. He needs to do things better, like quicken his progressions and sharpen his post-snap recognition skills, but teams will learn more about him during a thorough vetting process. If he performs well in those interviews and answers some of those questions, he has the potential to be an above average starting quarterback. And those are critical to winning in the modern NFL.

The next tier of quarterbacks (Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins) is being graded on a curve. These three are being given generous grades right now to fill the vacuum of quarterbacks valued in the second round range. But, for me, all of them are third-to-fourth round prospects and I wouldn’t touch them until then.

Weeden is the best of the bunch and shows some good things, but there are a couple things that cripple his stock. The first is that he crumbles in the face of pressure. No quarterback likes being pressured, but every quarterback must learn to handle it because it’s inevitable. He can’t. He feels the heat and his decision-making and mechanics melt down. That problem is compounded when considering his age. If he were closer to the normal age range of drafted prospects, the hope is that the issue would be reprogrammed by the time he was twenty-eight and the team could still have a nice window. Weeden will be twenty-nine in October and needs to tinker with a part of his game that is essential for a starting-caliber quarterback. Not impossible, but it caps his career upside and value quite a bit. I like him best in a quick, short, timing-based passing attack where his weakness against the rush will be disguised to a degree.

Osweiler is a mechanical mess from the time he snaps the ball to the time it leaves his hand. His drop back and hitch-step need work. His base tightens and widens at random. His posture deteriorates. His shoulder rolls. His ball is pushed from his elbow. His release point makes him a shorter quarterback than his height would indicate. And, because of his mechanical inconsistencies, he’s a largely inaccurate passer with overrated arm strength. He needs to be rebuilt from the ground up and handled with care. If he is afforded the time to do that and improve his pocket presence, then his arm strength will shine and he will become a more accurate passer. His upside is definitely the highest of this bunch though.

Cousins is the least talented of the bunch. To be honest, I don’t see much to love when evaluating Cousins’ attributes. I wouldn’t touch him until the fourth. And that’s after adjusting for quarterback inflation. His arm strength is average, his ball placement is far from special, and his decision-making isn’t as sharp as it’s made out to be. Those are all huge concerns. I understand he’s competitive, a born leader, tough, etc. He can be all of those things, and those are certainly great intangibles to have, but if he can’t throw the ball at a benchmark level, he can’t be a starting quarterback in this league. It’s that simple. I think Cousins’ skill set is best suited for success in a West Coast Offense, but I even like him better as a bullpen quarterback in that system.

Ryan Lindley is the best project quarterback available. Part of it has to do with his skill set. Another part of it has to do with the fact that he should be available a full round or two later than the aforementioned prospects. Lindley made a lot of stick throws into tight windows in San Diego St.’s vertical system as a junior and senior. But he also forced the issue far too often and killed drives, or worse, turned the ball over. His gunslinger attitude needs to be reined in some, but he has a lot of the moldable qualities that make him worth selecting if the mental part of his game checks out. With some refinement of his footwork and clear definition in his progressions, he could develop into a legitimate starter down the road.

Despite being an elite prospect, Trent Richardson is still undervalued. Most consider him to be one of two or three elite prospects in this draft. Yet, he’s undervalued. There’s a strong sentiment in the football world that running back just isn’t a position that should be selected that high or valued that much. But that isn’t true. Elite runners like Trent Richardson are still worth their acquisition cost. Because elite runners like Trent Richardson still change the course of a game. Even in a high-octane, passing league.

Look, the NFL has gravitated toward the passing end of the spectrum over the past decade. Quarterbacks are the lifeblood of their team. Essential components of a championship contender. I get all that. And even agree with it. But the NFL is more complex than that. Each team isn’t spotted an elite quarterback, so the less fortunate must find creative solutions to level the playing field.

The common denominator of the most explosive offenses is that they’re multiple. They don’t specialize in strictly one aspect of the game. They’re potent in more than one area. Probably not to the same degree, but they’re still capable of moving the ball and chains in a multitude of ways. Defensive coordinators hate scheming against teams like that because football is a game of percentages and tendencies. The greater versatility an offense possesses, the greater variance in those percentages and tendencies, which is an advantage for the offensive side of the ball There are plenty of methods to achieve multiplicity, but adding an elite running back is absolutely one of the most effective.

As I said earlier, even in a passing-oriented league, running backs still have the potential to change the game. Teams with dynamic runners force defenses to account for their presence. They have a choice to make. They can either try to match up with their base package or they can dedicate another man to the box. Either way, the ability to control and dictate what that eighth defender does is another distinct advantage in the offensive play-caller’s arsenal.

Manufacturing a running game, so to speak, is much harder than it sounds on paper. You might be able to piece together an effective ground game – one that gets exactly the yardage it is blocked for – to complement an outstanding quarterback, but an elite runner is much more valuable than that. He puts extra pressure on a defense. He generates explosive gains. He transcends his offensive linemen and the blocks in front of him. He is special. And that dimension can’t just be manufactured.

Richardson adds that dimension to an offense. He has a compact build, low mileage on his tires, raw power, gymnastic balance, underrated short-area explosiveness, panoramic vision, and sneaky home run hitting ability. There’s some innateness to his blocking and receiving facets, too. He fits the profile of an elite back to a T. And that’s worth a top five pick, passing era or not.

The second tier of running backs behind Richardson is quite fluid. The tier of Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Chris Polk, Robert Turbin, and Isaiah Pead are so close in value that it is difficult to untangle. Team-to-team preference and specific need will determine where each is drafted. (Sidenote: LaMichael James and Bernard Pierce are often placed in this same tier, but I don’t consider them to be the equals of the previous group. Both are too soft for me. I wouldn’t touch either until the fourth or fifth round.)

I think Lamar Miller is the most talented runner of the bunch. He’s got good vision, explosive burst, underrated wiggle, and doesn’t shrink in the shadow of contact. I love him as a runner in a zone-blocking scheme. I think he could be an absolute monster in that role. His durability and upright running style worry me, but the natural talent is evident if everything checks out medically.

Doug Martin is the best all-around back on the tier. He’s rock solid in all aspects of his game. He’s a tough runner that can handle an NFL workload. He’s got the vision, lateral quickness, and active feet to succeed. He’s a three-down back that contributes as a blocker and receiver. There is a lot to love about Martin and I assume he will be the second back taken based on the fact that there are no glaring issues to teams.

David Wilson and Chris Polk is the toughest separation. To me, both are identical values in their respective roles. Wilson is the more explosive back. He’s a smooth accelerator. His balance and change of direction skills are top-notch. He’s got some surprising fight in his game, too. At worst, I see a good change of pace back with potential to be more. Chris Polk has more workhorse potential and can still be effective in passing situations. With rumors of him cutting to a slimmer, more natural weight, I think his QABS can even improve.

Along the lines of Wilson and Polk, Robert Turbin and Isaiah Pead both bring separate skill sets that hold similar grades. Turbin is a powerful, determined downhill runner with enough wiggle. Pead is a change of pace back with plus suddenness, decisiveness, and some additional value as a return specialist.

Two runners that I like as mid-to-late round sleepers are Bobby Rainey and Tauren Poole. Chris Rainey is the more recognizable name with blazing timed speed and will be drafted higher, but Bobby Rainey is a better football player. Rainey’s got a compact build that can withstand the punishment that will be doled out at the next level and his other attributes make him a more complete runner. He finds holes easier, his feet are quicker through traffic, his change of direction skills are comparable, and he finishes runs stronger due to a thicker base. I’m a big fan of the kid. He’s a solid fourth-rounder to me.

When I went into watching Tauren Poole, I was expecting to be unimpressed from what I had heard. Instead, I liked what I saw quite a bit. I see an instinctive runner that can carve out a spot in a backfield and earn some carries for himself in the NFL. He runs with good pad level, get downhill with purpose, and he can even make defenders miss inside the tackle box. A more natural runner than I expected.

Justin Blackmon isn’t an elite prospect, but he’s still the best out there. While Blackmon was never close to Andre or Calvin Johnson, I think he’s suffering from chronic nitpicking at this point. I’ve liked him more than Michael Floyd throughout the entire process and I’m sticking to it. Blackmon is the smoother athlete and a relentless worker that will put in the extra time to hone his craft after grueling practices and in the off-season. That’s a reliable characteristic. And I don’t agree with the popular Anquan Boldin comparison either. That implies he’s a grounded receiver and marginalizes other aspects of his skill set. Blackmon plays bigger than his measurables would indicate. He’s got impeccable timing when high-pointing the football, he tracks the ball in the air well, and his body control is impressive. Those attributes expand his catching radius beyond that of a grounded, prototypical possession receiver. Hakeem Nicks is a much closer comparison for Blackmon.

Wide receiver is the deepest position in the draft and it’s not even close. I believe there are dozens of receivers that are capable of contributing in this draft class. It’s unusually talented. There will be a cluster of receivers with day two grades that are still available on day three. Since the list is so long, I’ll hit on a few prospects that I like more than the consensus seems to be.

My top five is Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, Hill, and Marvin Jones from Cal. Jones is one of the smoothest receivers in the draft. He runs crisp routes and creates separation with explosion at the top of them. He has strong hands to snatch the ball out of the air. He is a reliable hands-catcher. His ball skills and body control allow him to adjust to poorly thrown balls. He can align as a flanker and in the slot. He has all the tools that coaches and scouts like to see when projecting receivers to the next level and he will be underdrafted.

Along those lines, Joe Adams is an absolute top ten receiver prospect to me. He profiles as a dynamic slot receiver at the next level. He’s familiar with inside routes, having run them extensively at Arkansas. He understands the subtleties of the position. He gears up and down for variance, snaps at the top of his route, and understands how to create separation using more than just his athleticism. He’s a polished product. And he’s electric once the ball is in his hands.

One deep sleeper that I like is Junior Hemingway from Michigan. He’s endured some garbage quarterback play throughout his career, but I like how his skill set translates to the NFL. He’s got a large frame. He’s competitive. He finds soft spots in coverage. And he’s got plus athleticism for his size.

Two prospects that I’m not as high on are Mohammed Sanu and Chris Givens. Sanu is generally listed as a top ten prospect, but I don’t see much explosiveness or upside. That’s not to imply that he can’t be productive. I love his fearlessness and ability to work underneath. I just think he’s more Jason Avant than anything. I like other receivers in this draft more than that. And Givens has moved himself into the second round, but he’s too inconsistent for my liking. He’s got tantalizing ability. His hands are a serious issue though and I don’t think there is much potential for them to get better. He’s a chronic body-catcher because he’s got small hands. That can’t be changed.

The value of slot receivers and tight ends is at an all-time high. Not long ago, teams heavily favored receivers that could win one-on-one battles on the perimeter and felt that slot receivers were supplemental pieces that could be found later in the draft. A “number one” receiver wasn’t just the flagship of a receiving corps, it was a huge part in defining its effectiveness. The “number ones” still are at a premium, but as more teams start to manipulate their passing games with specialized personnel and sub-packages, the value of an explosive slot receiver that can give offenses favorable match ups is rising.

The same goes for a tight end. The position has become a true weapon in the modern NFL because it’s a nightmare match up for defensive coordinators when they’re isolated on linebackers or safeties. They’re not just outlet receivers anymore. They’re coverage-changers.

Matt Kalil is a stud, but the rest of the left tackles are overrated and will be drafted higher than their grade suggests due to their position. Matt Kalil isn’t an elite prospect, but he’s a top-flight talent and the best left tackle in the draft. He’s got phenomenal feet, long arms, and the tools to develop into an All-Pro blindside protector. Right now, his issues stem from lapses in concentration. There are times he overextends, times he doesn’t get low enough, etc. But, overall, he’s the most talented of the tackles by far and the only one with a definite first round grade.

Mike Adams is the most talented of the next three, but he was brutally inconsistent during his career as a Buckeye and rarely played up to his ability. Riley Reiff is the safest prospect. He’s a fairly sound technician, he’s a pretty good athlete, etc. He’s a better right tackle though. Is that worth such an early pick? I don’t think so, especially since I don’t see him as a dominant one either. Jonathan Martin is the next option, and I don’t love him as a first-rounder either. To me, he is much closer to Roger Saffold as a prospect than, say, Matt Kalil. He’s got tools, but he needs work with a good offensive line coach to reach his upside.

On the other hand, this guard class should produce some big-time performers. The headliner of the class is David DeCastro. And DeCastro is a monster. There’s not much to pick apart with him. He’s the rare case of being classified as a road-grader and a technician with good athleticism. An immediate plug-and-play.

If the tackle experiment fails with Cordy Glenn, he has obvious potential as a guard. Big-bodied lineman with special athleticism when he’s kicked inside. Could develop into a dominant pulling guard. Roughly comparable to Leonard Davis.

I love Midwestern St.’s Amini Silatolu. Maybe too much. The ghost of Larry Allen has created a lot of intrigue for small school guard prospects and Silatolu impressed me quite a bit. The first things that pops out are his nastiness and relentlessness. He’s a whistle-to-whistle blocker. Not the most athletic, but his base is thick and strong and he can really drive.

Kevin Zeitler is a typical Wisconsin guard. Tough as nails, polished, experienced, productive, mean streak, etc. In a normal draft, he’d be talked about much more. He’s still worth a second round pick.

I like Kelechi Osemele as a guard, too. He has the skill set to slide inside and it hides some of the weaknesses that are present on the outside. He’s more of shield blocker.

Even someone like Brandon Brooks has garnered a lot of interest as a high pick.

Separation between the top stable of pass rushers is nonexistent. In terms of even front pass rushers, there’s not much separation at the top. While this class lacks a dynamic prospect, it compensates for it in terms of depth. I don’t see a premier pass rusher per se, but there is a group of guys capable of contributing in their own ways.

Quinton Coples is the biggest name of the bunch and his skill set is tantalizing to me. I see him as an ideal base end that can set the edge in the running game with long arms and impressive functional strength. Then kick him inside on passing downs and let him rush from his more natural spot. He isn’t explosive, flexible, or quick enough to anchor the weak side though. But, in that versatile role, I like his potential. For the record, I saw the same kind of potential from Jamaal Anderson. Make of that what you will.

Chandler Jones is a similar talent. He’s not an explosive pass rusher that will accumulate a ton of sacks, but he’s a decent short-area athlete that can be an elite run stuffer with the potential to develop a better rushing repertoire. He’s got freakish, long arms that make disengaging so much easier because the tackle struggles to even get hands on him.

As for the weak side ends, I think Nick Perry is the most explosive athlete of the trio. His rush moves are a little limited, but he’s got the most raw talent to mold. I love Vinny Curry’s relentlessness. He really gets after it on the field. With that kind of non-stop motor, I’m encouraged that he can develop some go-to and countermoves as a rusher. Andre Branch has potential, and I like his length and closing speed, but I don’t trust him quite as much as the other two. Motor isn’t as hot and he isn’t as athletic.

Of this tier, I didn’t find much to love about Whitney Mercilus. He wasn’t sudden. He showed some athleticism, sure, but it was all very linear. He stalls when he’s in a phone booth. If he’s not lined up in a wide technique where he’s got some space to work with, he’s marginalized.

My favorite defensive end outside of that group is Malik Jackson. He played inside at Tennessee out of necessity, but I think he’s got the skill set to be a very effective strong side defensive end. He is a quick and strong athlete and he’s already proven to have some push from an inside rushing position. Needs to play with more consistent pad level, but as a mid-round value, I think he can really contribute in the NFL.

Fletcher Cox is still underrated. He’s on a tier of his own as a defensive tackle. He’s a fluid athlete for his size that’s versatile and scheme-diverse. He has surprising burst and suddenness when he shoots the gaps and still shows the strength to hold the point of attack. To me, he’s a slam dunk top ten pick and even more valuable to teams that run a hybrid defense.

Dontari Poe’s production is a complete non-issue and shouldn’t impact his draft stock. A lot of people write him off because he didn’t dominate C-USA. But he didn’t dominate C-USA because he’s as raw of a specimen in the draft. His rawness is a contributing factor into his stock being where it is. His production is not. Coaches and scouts look for translatable tools. Poe has them all in spades. A super-sized frame. Freakish blend of burst and brute strength. Even shows some suddenness in confined spaces. For a man of his dimensions, those qualities are rare. And those qualities are the reason he’ll be drafted so high, production or not.

Mike Martin will outperform his draft position. He’s a projected third round pick, but I see him outperforming that slotting and sticking around in the league for a while. In addition to underrated athleticism, Martin has an impressive, detail-oriented game. As a former wrestler, he maximizes his natural strength by playing with incredible leverage. Coaches will love his nastiness and relentlessness, too. I think he can be adequate in a wide range of schemes. But my favorite fits for him are as a responsible three-technique in a 4-3 or a five-technique in a one-gap 3-4 that attacks and slants a lot.

Luke Kuechly is the best linebacker prospect since LaVar Arrington. Of course, they’re different types of prospects, but Kuechly is impressive in his own way. I absolutely love his instincts. His head gets him to the ball much faster than the most athletic linebacker’s feet ever could, but even Kuechly’s athleticism grades out as superlative. His block shedding is cited as a weakness, but that’s indicative of linebackers as a whole. He can’t be downgraded much, if at all, for that. Besides, he does a good job of slipping past blocks and preventing linemen from getting in on him. He’s a scheme-diverse linebacker as well.

What’s not to love about Miles Burris in the right role? I know he’s projected as a mid-to-late round pick, but I have him valued as a solid third-rounder. When I’ve watched him, I see a nice package of skills and it’s reflected in his production at San Diego St. For starters, he’s a fluid and gifted athlete. He’s got an explosive first-step, elite short-area quickness, and a non-stop motor. He’s versatile and his instincts are quite good, too.

Now, the caveat: I’m not a huge fan of him as an edge rusher in the 3-4. If he gets drafted there, I think he’s limited in what he can do. He has real problems shedding blocks in the phone booth. His go-to move as a pass rusher is just bending and running the arc. He has underwhelming bulk and length as a pass rusher. I’m having a difficult time envisioning that particular fit. His athleticism and relentlessness might allow him to stick on a roster, and even become a reliable situational producer, but I don’t think it’s his ideal fit. If he has to be drafted in the 3-4 though, I think that he’s better suited for a sideline-to-sideline role on the inside.

However, I love his run-and-hit skill set if he’s put in a 4-3. I think he can be a super productive strong side or weak side linebacker. It minimizes his exposure to block shedding situations, he reads the action in front of him much better when he’s disengaged, and I think he’s a better blitzer than pure pass rusher. When he just lines up in the two-point stance at the line of scrimmage, linemen can envelop him and erase him because it neutralizes his biggest asset to a degree. But, when he’s able to attack an offensive tackle from a position of space, he does a solid job of setting his man up and then countering with quickness. That’s not as practical as a 3-4 outside linebacker though.

Zach Brown is dripping with athletic talent and potential, but there’s a similar specimen with much better linebacker skills that’s somehow overlooked. His name is Mychal Kendricks. Brown isn’t instinctive. His athleticism gets him near the ball, but he doesn’t finish well. He’s soft. He submissive. He’s an unreliable tackler. And he plays slower than his eye-popping time.

On the other hand, Mychal Kendricks tested slightly worse than Brown athletically, but he plays faster on the field. His instincts aren’t jaw-dropping, but I like them quite a bit for a player that is still transitioning to the middle and think they can improve. Unlike Brown, he’s willing to stick his helmet in there and get dirty, too. His potential as a blitzer is much greater as well. And, for his size, he fights blocks better than expected.

The spread of the 3-4 is causing legitimate 4-3 linebacker talent to slip in the draft. This is a trend that’s emerged over the past few drafts as more and more teams adopt the 3-4 defense as their base. Each defense has a specific profile for various their linebacker spots that have different responsibilities. Because 3-4 teams demand bigger size, better block shedders, and more pass rush potential in general, the classic undersized, sideline-to-sideline linebackers that 4-3 teams covet are lasting longer and longer.

Melvin Ingram is the biggest enigma in the 2012 NFL Draft. I could see him becoming the most versatile defender in the NFL or a total flop. For starters, I don’t like him as a 4-3 defensive end. He doesn’t explode out of his three-point stance. Often times, he’s the last lineman off the ball. And his pass rush repertoire on the edge isn’t special either. He’s somewhat robotic when pigeonholed into that role.

But, in a 3-4 where he’s allowed to be versatile, I love him. In particular, I love him more as an inside linebacker in a 3-4. His athleticism shines more in space. He has the skill set to be a great stack-and-shed linebacker there. He also has good blitz potential against interior offensive linemen from that spot and I would trust him in coverage there, too. I even like his instincts better. Now, I would still give him snaps at outside linebacker, defensive tackle, and some at defensive end. The point is to move him around and make him a defensive weapon. He’s got a unique skill set. Reminiscent of a prime Adalius Thomas.

The ‘Bama ‘backers are a little overrated. Courtney Upshaw and Dont’a Hightower were both great college football players, but I’m not sold on aspects of their game. I don’t see a special pass rusher when I watch Upshaw. Sure, I see strong hands and good leverage, but I see a pass rusher that lumbers. He’s not fluid or sudden. So I don’t love him as the kind of fringe Pro Bowl 3-4 outside linebacker that’s been talked about. He’s not an explosive pass rusher and I don’t think he’s suited for prolonged coverage exposure. Granted, he fits the trite moniker of a ‘football player’ and I think he will find ways to survive at the next level, but I see more solid starter than I do Pro Bowler.

As for Hightower, I often hear how he’s a beast downhill linebacker that excels at shedding blocks. He’s got the skill set to do that, sure, but it’s not consistent. He has struggled to disengage from blocks more often than it’s assumed and I think he’s playing too heavy right now. There’s not much explosiveness to his game. He’s very straight-line. Don’t see the pass rush skills that suggest he can spend much time on the outside either.

Even in the Era of the 40-Time, Morris Claiborne’s Wonderlic score has managed to secure the spot for most overblown metric. He's still the best defensive back in this class. A bad score on the Wonderlic doesn't change it. In fact, in general, a higher score on the Wonderlic scares off more teams than a low one does for cornerbacks. Cornerback play is more instinctive than it is analytical. When a cornerback prospect does score well, it causes teams to pause and wonder if the player in question is going to overthink things. The thought process being that a cornerback that's thinking isn't reacting and isn't playing to his full speed.

Janoris Jenkins is the best man corner in the draft, but his red flags are justified and should push him down the boards. It’s not just about smoking weed because most prospects have at least experimented with marijuana. It’s about continuing to smoke weed after his NFL career was jeopardized upon his dismissal from Florida. That’s a legitimate concern to teams. With millions of dollars at stake, he didn’t see the need to stop for a few months and keep his nose clean. Fair or not, teams will question whether he can remain on the field for them.

With the value of a slot receiver and tight end at an all-time, the value of versatile safeties is on the rise. As offenses adjust, so must defenses and vice versa. Historically, safeties have typically been viewed as erasers. They’re there to cover up and eliminate any mistakes that occur in front of them. Now, with passing games becoming deeper and more multiple, the need for a versatile safety has presented itself. No longer can a safety be safely hidden. They’re required to be more responsible in coverage shells now.

The best safety in this class is from Alabama, but it isn’t Mark Barron. It’s Dre Kirkpatrick. I think Kirkpatrick has the skill set to be a very solid corner, but he could perform at close to an All-Pro level at free safety. I like his ball skills a ton when the play develops in front of him and he gets a chance to break on the ball. Plus, with the NFL evolving into a pass-centric league, run support isn’t as big of a question. Not to mention, I still like his willingness in that regard. Wish he had a little more size, but the skill set is there.

That said, I do have Mark Barron as the best strong safety available and think he will be a mainstay in a secondary for quite some time. His high football intelligence enables him to be the quarterback of the defensive backfield and I think his coverage abilities are somewhat underrated at this point.

George Iloka fits the profile of the Safety of Tomorrow. Iloka is a former cornerback with prototypical safety size and fairly good physical tools. He mostly played deep zone at Boise St., but NFL teams will surely be intrigued with his potential versatility and skill set. I haven’t seen much of him, but I’m very intrigued to see where he gets drafted.

[ChiFan24]

Outstanding post. Skimmed through it and read some of the more pertinent areas, but there is very, very little that I disagree with. Pretty uncanny, actually.

[BigBanger]

First of all, this is incredible.

My concern for Fletcher Cox is his sub 300 frame. Only Dorsey and McCoy have cracked my top 10 that were in the 298 range. Both were top 5 players for me. I thought they were the exception to the rule and both are looking disappointing. How about Jerry from Ole Miss a couple years back? Cox looks stronger at the point with better leverage but his size worries me. I think they are similar. But Cox just isn't my preference. I was a huge fan of Wilfork, Hampton, Ngata, Dareus, Suh and Raji. I think Poe is the gem of this class, and I think will belong in that group. His rawness is a concern, but his size / athleticism / strength / work ethic should overcome that. In 5 years people could look back at this draft and scratch their heads about why he fell (assuming he falls out of the top 15).

Mike Martin, Jaye Howard and Brandon Thompson will be great value picks. I think they are all going to be very solid pros.



As for the WRs, Floyd is the most prototypical of the buch. He has that Fitzgerald type size / leaping ability / body control and hands that is simply rare. I think he's been underrated for quite some time. I think he's closer to an elite talent then he's been made out to be. I understand the character concerns and he should drop a little, but I think he's the best WR in the draft.

Blackmon is a notch below physically and doesnt have quite the upside. Still a great prospect and a little safer, but not the same kind of potential.

Stephen Hill could develop into the best WR from the class and I wouldn't be surprised one bit. GT had been putting out some supremely gifted WRs, albeit raw ones. Hill is easily the #3 WR in the class and not too far off of the top 2.

There is some good depth to the WR class. Also like Marvin Jones. Natural athlete with good potential.

[cmarq83]

Cudders, I agree with you on most of this, especially the parts on Kendricks, Marvin Jones, Ingram, and Dre Kirkpatrick, but I simply can't agree with you on Poe. His lack of production may not hurt his draft position, but it should. People tend to overestimate the value of good coaching can have on prospects. Poe is this raw and unproductive after 4 years of college, where they undoubtably were doing the same kind of drills to correct his hand technique, height out of his stance, pass rush repertoire, and other areas. People liken him to Albert Haynesworth and Haloti Ngata, but the truth is as prospects they both were far more productive on the collegiate level than Poe was. Even someone with extremely average production like Richard Seymour flashed enough to warrant a high pick unlike Poe. As of right now Poe has neither asserted himself in the run game or become an impact pass rusher. He's easily single blocked by a lot of C-USA OL's, and even if he could make the same impact right away in the NFL that he did in college, he wouldn't be worth the high pick.

With Poe it's all measurables, which is ok considering a lot of times on the DL that is an enormous factor, but there are pertinent questions as to why he wasn't successful in college, and people over simplify the situation by saying it will all be solved by pro coaching. The fact that he had as large of an athletic advantage as he did, yet still was pretty much JAG is pretty telling regardless of how raw he is.

[BeerBaron]

This is a truly incredible write up. I'm having trouble even finding a spot to nit-pick just for the sake of discussion. You though of just about everything and you seem to be completely spot on with your feel for the current state of league and how it values different positions.

Incredible. Keep up the excellent work.

[cmarq83]

Cudders gets over 2000 rep points on average per post. Needless to say that is the highest on DC. It's probably not enough though.

[jojo]

Great essay.

The best safety in this class is from Alabama, but it isn’t Mark Barron. It’s Dre Kirkpatrick. I think Kirkpatrick has the skill set to be a very solid corner, but he could perform at close to an All-Pro level at free safety. I like his ball skills a ton when the play develops in front of him and he gets a chance to break on the ball. Plus, with the NFL evolving into a pass-centric league, run support isn’t as big of a question.

That sounds like Deion Sanders 2.0!! Hi there Dreion

Luke Kuechly is the best linebacker prospect since LaVar Arrington.

Arrrington the draft prospect is 180-out from Arrington the Redskins LB. Remember what happened to him? Kuechly will hopefully have a better fate

[gpngc]

With you on a lot. Especially:

- The Trent Richardson argument.
- Mychal Kendricks
- Lamar Miller
- Fletcher Cox (but let's admit, these penetrating DTs who just jump out on film in college are extremely risky for some reason).

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on Bruce Irvin. I agree with you on Mercilus. Jones and Coples too. Coples' issues have nothing to do with football, which is what makes him scary both ways.

I disagree with your stances on Poe and Givens. And Melvin Ingram scares me in a 3-4 as well as a 4-3.

[scottyboy]

cudders doesnt like sanu? ****.

'scuse me while i go cut my wrists

[BeerBaron]

Originally Posted by scottyboy

cudders doesnt like sanu? ****.

'scuse me while i go cut my wrists

Has to hurt especially bad since he was compared to Jason Avant...

[SuperPacker]

If Cudders says he's Jason Avant, he's Jason Avant.

[scottyboy]

cudders has to be wrong eventually...or at least once in his life...right?

[jojo]

Thanx for the Lindley potential screed here. I said he was underrated 3 wks. ago, looks great ON PAPER, has the size, came from a passing program, etc.

It's relative of course, he will be a late rd. value if some team gets him cheap in the 4th or so & finds Lindley a roster spot & takes the time & effort reqd. to develop him. I know he will get his shot, just as I know Cousins will choke at the next level.

Good call on Weeden, who'a thunk a former baseball pitcher would cave under pressure from a pass rush? If he can't adjust at Oklahoma St. what will he do when he's at 3rd & long in the NFL & the blitzers are all over him?

[SuperPacker]

Originally Posted by scottyboy

cudders has to be wrong eventually...or at least once in his life...right?

I wouldn't bet on it.

[Cardinal96]

Cudders--

One of the most informative posts I have seen on various draft prospects. Even when I may have a slight disagreement, I can't criticize any statement you make as it is well-sourced and reasoned. Threads like this are why I come to this forum.

[WCH]

I feel the exact same way about Sanu, but I didn't have the balls to say it. Cudders gives it credibility.

[Rosebud]

Glad to see someone else seeing Kirtpatrick excelling as a safety the way Antrel Rolle has. That type of versatile was huge for our secondary and will only become more important as more teams get playmaking TEs and slot receivers.

PS riding the Tannehill bandwagon with Cudders. Sweet.

[Big Bird]

I've always loved Mike Martin. Kyle Williams clone. The guy is simply an animal. He even tested better than projected. I can't believe people still doubt the guy.

[Canadian_draft_fan]

Quite frankly one of the best posts I've ever read on this forum. I don't agree with 100% of it but very good points for discussion. +rep.

[tjsunstein]

Easily one of the most thought out posts I can remember to date. I wish I could counter any of the points made. I think I'll have to read it again.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

You hit on a lot of points I've been making for the last couple of weeks/months, so there isn't a ton for me to challenge you on. 2 things though:

I like Marvin Jones as well, but I'm curious as to what you think of Greg Childs? I personally like Childs more as I feel he brings somewhat similar qualities, with an extra dimension of athletic ability.

On Kuechly: I'd argue he's not even the best LB prospect in the class. Give me Lavonte David.

[vidae]

Fantastic writeup sir. Also couldn't agree more about Tannehill.

[Brown Leader]

Originally Posted by Cudders

On Osweiler. The thing that gets unmentioned is the fact that all the guy did this post season is work to try and fix his delivery/mechanics. It's why he didn't throw anywhere till the end of March. And by all accounts he showed much better mechanics when he finally did throw at his personal pro day.

Biggest issue I've seen and read about Lindley is his scattershot accuracy. And it stems from chronically slow feet so good luck trying to correct his footwork.

I'm not the biggest fan of Michael Irvin as an analyst but his on field segment with Blackmon this past week was outstanding. What was surprising was how much bigger Irvin looked than Blackmon, but anyway.... Through the course of the drills you got a sense of what Justin's demeanor will be like when he's with a demanding position coach. Fair to say, he's going to need a lot of work. He strikes me as a naturally talented guy that just stepped on the field, in that offense, and dominated. I've got questions about how much of a grinder he is.

On Sanu. The thing about him is how naturally strong he is. I remeber a play from this past season where a guy went to put a kill shot on Sanu and knocked himself out the game. Sanu was fine. You brought up Avant but Sanu is much more physically imposing while being about as quick and shifty as he is.

Everything else I'm with you. Although I'm not as confident about Kirkpatrick at FS. He's had some good hits but I'm not sure just how reliable a tackler he is.

[Giantsfan1080]

Great post as usual Cudders. I disagree about Sanu but everything else is spot on.

[BuckeyeDan17]

LOL @ the fact there are people getting paid to write pieces about 1/200th the quality of this.